2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: New Jersey

[ProgressiveModerate]

Which tiebreaker do y'all think the state supreme court will choose?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Important to note that, by tradition, whichever side "loses" the congressional map decision is generally given the "win" on the legislative map decision.   That's what happened in both 2001 and 2011.

R's got their congressional map in both 2001 and 2011.  I think in 2001 it was probably overall a good deal for D's, but in 2011 the D's kinda got screwed since their legislative majorities were secure anyway.

Frankly I think whichever side gets their congressional map is who will ultimately be the winner. Just 2 or 3 extra seats in the House in such a polarized environment full of close elections is really valueable, especially since anything other than an extreme R Gerry (which presumably wouldn’t be chosen) isn’t going to put Dems state legislative majorities on the line. Ig the one thing that could be important in the state legislative maps could be the Dem map will prolly offer a more viable path to a supermajority, but considering NJ has and will likely continue to have liberal Dem govs, it doesn’t matter too much.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Surprisingly it’s NJ-8, NJ-9 and NJ-10 that ended up being very overpopulated, so districts aren’t likely gonna be pulled into NE Jersey which makes Dems job of shoring up 5, 7 and 11 easier to achieve

[ProgressiveModerate]

NJ light R gerry I came up with.

It if weren't for the 11th this map would be a relatively clean least change map.

Chances R the Dem tiebreaker would never vote for this though unless some sort of deal was made (you never know)

[ProgressiveModerate]

Looking at the 2020 data initially it seems like even though Biden didn’t improve on Clinton a whole lot in terms of statewide margin, his distribution of votes is significantly better than Clinton’s, especially in Northern Jersey. Basically every hyper-packed blue area shifted right, tossup suburbs shifted left, but deep red suburbs, especially in south Jersey were kinda a wash if not right shifting. Depolarization in geography tends to help the party in the majority in a state and this is no exception

[ProgressiveModerate]

Hmm it looks like results by municipality and not precinct

For some reason this doesn't seem to be so in Winslow and Monroe townships in Gloucester and Camden counties.

2016 Data:



2020 Data:



It definately is. Still better than no 2020 data but not ideal; sounds like actual precinct level results in NJ are really hard to get

https://davesredistricting.org/join/ba40b0a6-27f9-42c0-9e10-9e971c4cb1ac

Seems like it was by VTD rather than township though

[ProgressiveModerate]

My hypothesis is that this municipality uniformity has something to do with how these municipalities reported their total vote, and because of the pandemic and predominantly mail in voting there was no precinct reporting.

Yeah, given the primacy of municipalities in NJ, and the pandemic VBM being extremely difficult to allocate by precinct, I'm guessing every town and county didn't bother and just recorded it in the overall municipal vote totals. This slightly distorts gauging the partisanship of districts, but municipalities aren't usually chopped in NJ so it makes little difference. The only municipalities really large enough where chops are necessary are Newark and Jersey City, which would both be in Safe D districts. Precinct racial data is there so for VRA purposes there's no issue.

If you look carefully it seems both JC and Newark have been breaken down by VTD.

If this is the case and there's no way to get accurate precinct results statewide I'm going to be very dissapointed in NJ for being lazy.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Quick NJ Realistic Map

Great point from Progressive Moderate.

I drew this quick realistic map. 9-3. The Northwest seat goes into Union to pick up Westfield for Kean. But even as a 'sink', it's still only Trump +2. Not winnable for Dems in 2022, but definitely could be in the future. Maybe not if Kean gets a good grip on it like he ought to do given his overperformance even in 2020.

The big factor in South Jersey is how much of Camden County Norcross is willing to cede. My prior is 0, given him and his brother's disregard for anything but maintaining their own power, but we'll see. If Norcross allows Kim to take in Cherry Hill and Pennsauken, then Kim stands a chance in 2022. If not, I don't see how he survives if his district is anything like the current form given the Red wave that swept South Jersey a few weeks ago.

If Watson-Coleman retires, then Dems ought to go for a 10-2 and slice up her district. Kim getting Trenton would be a massive boon.

NJ is not the type of state where incumbents would be likely to support the greater good of the party, so I think Watson-Coleman keeps her seat mostly intact if she doesn't retire at the expensive of Kim and Malinowski.

All Kim needs is to get most or all of Ocean county out of his district and split between NJ-02 and NJ-04.  Any replacement territory would be substantially better for him.

Kim’s district is bounded by Norcross and Smith’s districts. The Dem territory in the area is in Camden County and Mercer County. Unless the commission throws Smith under the bus and removes his hometown from the district his entry into Mercer is blocked, and unless Norcross cedes some of Camden county which might be unlucky because of his brother’s institutional power Kim’s district struggles to get bluer.

Even having parts of  inner Monmouth and Atlantic is better for Kim than having Ocean.  I believe you can get to a Biden + 8 or district by doing this, which should be enough for Kim even in a wave.

It’s easy to see a Biden+8 fall in a wave.

Sure it could, but it would at least give Kim pretty good odds as opposed to the current district. 

You seemed to be suggesting he’d be safe in a Biden+8, rather than just that he’d be less endangered.

I’m not saying he’d be safe.  He should be favored in such a district, but it’s pretty much impossible to make it any better than that without making other Dem districts shaky.

Shaky, yes, but not seats they’d lose unless they’re having a really bad night. Also, they just need to turn Van Drew’s seat into an R sink and Kim should be safe.

I’d argue pretty much no matter what Van Drew’s seat will be drawn to be swingy; ceding bluer Philly burbs means taking in Atlantic City. Deep South Jersey also just lacks extreme political geography.

[ProgressiveModerate]

My attempt at a fair NJ map that keeps COIs together.

Colored by 2020; not as many competitive districts as I'd like, but it is what it is.

One thing that gets me annoyed about the NJ commission is political deals will prolly be cut (i.e. drawing Kean a seat that involves a weird snake into central Jersey) that end up with maps that benefit specific politicians rather than people (though it should in theory curb extreme partisan gerrymandering).

[ProgressiveModerate]

My attempt at a fair NJ map that keeps COIs together.

Colored by 2020; not as many competitive districts as I'd like, but it is what it is.

One thing that gets me annoyed about the NJ commission is political deals will prolly be cut (i.e. drawing Kean a seat that involves a weird snake into central Jersey) that end up with maps that benefit specific politicians rather than people (though it should in theory curb extreme partisan gerrymandering).

Do you have the DRA link? I'd like to see the margins on each seat.

Sure:

https://davesredistricting.org/join/31c650fe-999a-4943-abb7-e2d31847a651

Overall it's pretty simillar to the current map in terms of net partisanship, at least on 2020 numbers, just the seats are re-arranged a bit. Kinda interesting how a true R-Pack in NW Jersey can't really happen under today's politics whereas just a decade ago Rs were able to squeeze 3 seats out of the region.

[ProgressiveModerate]

In my first foray ever into DRA, I've managed to draw a map that went 11-1 for Biden/Booker/Clinton and 10-2 for Menendez/Murphy and gives every Democrat a solid path to reelection.

I paid no attention to any laws/COIs/etc and probably violated thousands of requirements. Many incumbents are slightly outside of their districts, but lines could probably easily be modified to get their homes within them. I don't know.

Don't know how to get a picture but here's a link: https://davesredistricting.org/join/9283b68b-0bc2-4a5d-95cc-9d4bdb4dba15

Details:

NJ-01: Biden +45. Technically open by Sires lives just outside and would run here.
NJ-02: Biden +57 for Payne.
NJ-03: Biden +31 for Pascrell. Technically double-bunked with Sires but he would run in NJ-01.
NJ-04: Biden +11 for Gottheimer.
NJ-05: Biden +14 for Sherrill.
NJ-06: Biden +10. Smith, Watson Coleman, and Malinowski are triple-bunked but Watson Coleman probably runs here, Malinowski goes for NJ-07 and Smith for NJ-10.
NJ-07: Biden +25. Technically open but Malinowski would probably run here.
NJ-08: Biden +15 for Pallone.
NJ-09: Biden +7. Technically open but Kim lives just outside and would run here. Vulnerable in a GOP-favored cycle but Kim is probably strong enough to hold.
NJ-10: Trump +13. Technically Kim lives here but would run in NJ-09, Smith probably runs here.
NJ-11: Biden +10. Technically open but Norcross lives just outside and would run here.
NJ-12: Biden +6 to draw out Van Drew. He may survive a GOP-favored cycle but would not last.

This could be up to 8-4 Republican in a GOP wave year.

Actually, Tom Kean might still be able to make that NJ-7 competitive. Without Trump on the ticket I'm wondering if we'll see his State Senate-level overperformances translate to the congressional level. It's probably just wishful thinking though like Hogan in MD-SEN.

Unfortunately, Biden +25 is probably a bridge too far even for someone like him in a GOP wave year.

Yeah a lot of state legislators tend to have massive overperformances on the state legislative level because:

-State legislative elections tend to be less polarizing than congressional elections
-A congressional district is far bigger than a state legislative district
-There's just more variables to worry about for congressional campaigns

It's not impossible ig, but if Dems are losing a Biden + 25 seat anywhere in the nation, they are having a disaster nationally. I'd say Biden + 15 sort of is the cutoff for a realistic chance of an R winning a seat in 2022. Maybe Biden + 20 but that's pushing. In 2018 outside MN-7, the most Pro-Trump district Ds were able to win was NY-22 where Brindisi narrowly flipped the Trump + 15 district. Even flips like SC-01, OK-05 and NY-11 (all ~ Trump + 10 in 2016) were considered surprises and flukes

[ProgressiveModerate]

What's the numbers on Sherill Kim and Gottheimer

Both seem around Biden + 15 but Gotthemeir seems slightly closer

NJ-7 still being a Biden district while keeping all other north Jersey districts relatively safe for Dems is a win in my book, though I’m not a huge fan of the map from COI perspective

[ProgressiveModerate]

So is there a chance the map is actually overturned or do they just want more info and will pretty much accept whatever he says unless it's completely ergregious?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Welp this really has been a mess.

I personally found NJ's process and lack of transparency to be messed up from the beginning, and Wallace's comments weren't helpful. Idk what will happen at this point, though I wouldn't count on the map being overturned yet as most of what Republicans are saying sounds like heresay which may be and is likely true if that makes sense, but there's not some secret recording of Wallace saying he'd pick Dems map no matter what.

Also wonder why the court choose Wallace in teh first place too?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Most of the R gerrymandering in the small to mid sized states (anything smaller than North Carolina/Gerogia) just comes from splitting up the states metros.  

Split up Salt Lake County, Split up Nashville, split up Little Rock, split up Oklahoma City, and split up Charleston (last one might be a bit tricky to avoid due to VRA, but there's obviously fishy business going on in the current map).

These districts would be so basic and elementary under any fair standards that proportionality is hardly even needed.   Just give the cities their own darn districts.

The portion of Charleston taken is around 40% black only.

40% black is still a high floor for Democrats. But yeah this seat and the Nashville one in particular seem like they’ll be issues for the GOP later in the decade.

I think there's a good chance that Nashville could just get a sink in 2030 (the GOP will still likely control TN redistricting). Same goes for SLC especially if a 5th seat is added in Utah.

South Carolina is a weird state overall geographically as the party coalitions are more white/black rather than urban/rural and a lot of the cities sort of blend.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Most of the R gerrymandering in the small to mid sized states (anything smaller than North Carolina/Gerogia) just comes from splitting up the states metros.  

Split up Salt Lake County, Split up Nashville, split up Little Rock, split up Oklahoma City, and split up Charleston (last one might be a bit tricky to avoid due to VRA, but there's obviously fishy business going on in the current map).

These districts would be so basic and elementary under any fair standards that proportionality is hardly even needed.   Just give the cities their own darn districts.

The portion of Charleston taken is around 40% black only.

40% black is still a high floor for Democrats. But yeah this seat and the Nashville one in particular seem like they’ll be issues for the GOP later in the decade.

I think there's a good chance that Nashville could just get a sink in 2030 (the GOP will still likely control TN redistricting). Same goes for SLC especially if a 5th seat is added in Utah.

South Carolina is a weird state overall geographically as the party coalitions are more white/black rather than urban/rural and a lot of the cities sort of blend.

I think UT-05 is a near-certainty, along with ID-03. Most likely there'll be a safe blue seat in SLC and a competitive seat based in Boise.

It'd be funny for the GOP to attempt a 5 way split of SLC. Imma see how'd that even work on DRA. They'd likely have to keep Utah relatively stable or even swing R this decade to actually do that though.



In this map every seat is at least Trump + 16, but who knows what poltical coalitions will look like in a decade.

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/wildstein/status/1494497981554380801?cxt=HHwWgsCywd__wr0pAAA...

Reportedly, there is a narrow but plausible path to GOP legislative majorities in 2023. Honestly, New Jersey Republicans are criminally underrated as a party.

I'm honestly surprised they never came very close to winning the state legislature this past decade, especially since earlier Dems were prolly more packed than they are now. Infact they haven't had controlled since the 2000s.

The legislature composition has been surprisingly stable despite it being up in some pretty extreme environments including 2021

[ProgressiveModerate]

Yes overall this is more likely to have impact on the NY map where Cervas's "non partisanship" can be called into question especially as one of the accusations is PA.

Not sure it affects the NY map. The allegations are against Wang personally not the PRP. All of the allegations come from other project members, and none implicate Cervas, who hasn't been with the project since last year.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2021/05/01/hispanics-census-undercount-house-seats/

I mean this guy more or less co authored articles with Mr.Wang.

I was best friends with someone who got suspended from my school, hell, I even did a presentation with them!

[ProgressiveModerate]

If the Supreme Court invalidates all redistricting commissions, the Dems probably do a map like this?

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::f4eb85c9-6061-4b59-86fd-27be40d2191d

Depends upon how South Jersey holds up in 2022. If we see what happened in the gov race again they may cede NJ-02 to Rs or keep it in a simillar form to how it currently is, especially since Van Drew is still better than a lot of other possible Rs. Also, I don't think NJ-Dems would dismantle NJ-08 like that to keep Menedez happy as sad as it is.

[ProgressiveModerate]

If the Supreme Court invalidates all redistricting commissions, the Dems probably do a map like this?

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::f4eb85c9-6061-4b59-86fd-27be40d2191d

Kean could very well hold that NJ-07 in 2024.

He wouldn't even win that in 2022. It's Biden +12 and stacks Piscataway, Morristown, Plainfield into a district with rural Sussex and parts of Dem trending Morris. I believe that map would be a very effective 11-1 gerrymander.

It's a fairly clean map, 2 needs an arm into Camden county to be a double-digit Biden seat. Dems would have nothing to worry about in 12 given trends in Hunterdon, Somerset.

Pre- 2016 the Dems probably couldn't do more than 10-2 (need a NW pack) but the 2016-2020 trends in NJ are extremely favorable for Dems geography because they gained in suburbs, exurbs and only lost ground in deep blue cities, deep red Ocean (perfect for a GOP pack).

On the flip side Rs 6-6 map form last decade would be impossible today. You can do 3 R seats in South Jersey but in North Jersey the best you can do is two swingy seats

[ProgressiveModerate]

If the Supreme Court invalidates all redistricting commissions, the Dems probably do a map like this?

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::f4eb85c9-6061-4b59-86fd-27be40d2191d

Kean could very well hold that NJ-07 in 2024.

He wouldn't even win that in 2022. It's Biden +12 and stacks Piscataway, Morristown, Plainfield into a district with rural Sussex and parts of Dem trending Morris. I believe that map would be a very effective 11-1 gerrymander.

It's a fairly clean map, 2 needs an arm into Camden county to be a double-digit Biden seat. Dems would have nothing to worry about in 12 given trends in Hunterdon, Somerset.

Pre- 2016 the Dems probably couldn't do more than 10-2 (need a NW pack) but the 2016-2020 trends in NJ are extremely favorable for Dems geography because they gained in suburbs, exurbs and only lost ground in deep blue cities, deep red Ocean (perfect for a GOP pack).

Kean barely lost an Biden+10 seat in 2020. No reason to think he can’t win a Biden+12 in 2022, a better year for his party

These are the worst type of GOP voters post Roe. Honestly I’m not sure Kean holds the NJ-7 he’s running in past 2024.

The 7th in that map is Clinton +5 and less ancestrally R than the current 7th. My point is that NJ Dems would draw a very effective gerrymander with this map.

Honestly though given what the commission drew which was already Dems proffered map, it seems like they want Milnowski to lose to get someone better for the seat while locking in everyone else in North Jersey. They also didn’t unpack Coleman’s seat which is notable

[ProgressiveModerate]

If the Supreme Court invalidates all redistricting commissions, the Dems probably do a map like this?

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::f4eb85c9-6061-4b59-86fd-27be40d2191d

Kean could very well hold that NJ-07 in 2024.

He wouldn't even win that in 2022. It's Biden +12 and stacks Piscataway, Morristown, Plainfield into a district with rural Sussex and parts of Dem trending Morris. I believe that map would be a very effective 11-1 gerrymander.

It's a fairly clean map, 2 needs an arm into Camden county to be a double-digit Biden seat. Dems would have nothing to worry about in 12 given trends in Hunterdon, Somerset.

Pre- 2016 the Dems probably couldn't do more than 10-2 (need a NW pack) but the 2016-2020 trends in NJ are extremely favorable for Dems geography because they gained in suburbs, exurbs and only lost ground in deep blue cities, deep red Ocean (perfect for a GOP pack).

Kean barely lost an Biden+10 seat in 2020. No reason to think he can’t win a Biden+12 in 2022, a better year for his party

These are the worst type of GOP voters post Roe. Honestly I’m not sure Kean holds the NJ-7 he’s running in past 2024.

The 7th in that map is Clinton +5 and less ancestrally R than the current 7th. My point is that NJ Dems would draw a very effective gerrymander with this map.

Honestly though given what the commission drew which was already Dems proffered map, it seems like they want Milnowski to lose to get someone better for the seat while locking in everyone else in North Jersey. They also didn’t unpack Coleman’s seat which is notable

They easily could have gotten NJ-07 to look like its old incarnation. That probably still knocks out Malinowski for 2022 but barring Kean turning into the next Fitzpatrick he’s out no later than 2026.

We'll see. A lot of this will likely be hindsight. The new NJ-07 is still shifting the fastest left of any of the districts on the new map whereas PA-01 has a lot of internal countershifts that have kept the district relatively balanced politically for a while now.

Also, we'll see how Kean votes in congress but I have a feeling he's not going to be as moderate as the Fritzpatricks and Katkos, prolly more akin to the Mace crowd.

It is interesting though how these districts neighbor eachother