2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: New Jersey

[ProgressiveModerate]

If the Supreme Court invalidates all redistricting commissions, the Dems probably do a map like this?

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::f4eb85c9-6061-4b59-86fd-27be40d2191d

Kean could very well hold that NJ-07 in 2024.

He wouldn't even win that in 2022. It's Biden +12 and stacks Piscataway, Morristown, Plainfield into a district with rural Sussex and parts of Dem trending Morris. I believe that map would be a very effective 11-1 gerrymander.

It's a fairly clean map, 2 needs an arm into Camden county to be a double-digit Biden seat. Dems would have nothing to worry about in 12 given trends in Hunterdon, Somerset.

Pre- 2016 the Dems probably couldn't do more than 10-2 (need a NW pack) but the 2016-2020 trends in NJ are extremely favorable for Dems geography because they gained in suburbs, exurbs and only lost ground in deep blue cities, deep red Ocean (perfect for a GOP pack).

Kean barely lost an Biden+10 seat in 2020. No reason to think he can’t win a Biden+12 in 2022, a better year for his party

These are the worst type of GOP voters post Roe. Honestly I’m not sure Kean holds the NJ-7 he’s running in past 2024.

The 7th in that map is Clinton +5 and less ancestrally R than the current 7th. My point is that NJ Dems would draw a very effective gerrymander with this map.

Honestly though given what the commission drew which was already Dems proffered map, it seems like they want Milnowski to lose to get someone better for the seat while locking in everyone else in North Jersey. They also didn’t unpack Coleman’s seat which is notable

They easily could have gotten NJ-07 to look like its old incarnation. That probably still knocks out Malinowski for 2022 but barring Kean turning into the next Fitzpatrick he’s out no later than 2026.

We'll see. A lot of this will likely be hindsight. The new NJ-07 is still shifting the fastest left of any of the districts on the new map whereas PA-01 has a lot of internal countershifts that have kept the district relatively balanced politically for a while now.

Also, we'll see how Kean votes in congress but I have a feeling he's not going to be as moderate as the Fritzpatricks and Katkos, prolly more akin to the Mace crowd.

It is interesting though how these districts neighbor eachother

[kwabbit]

If the Supreme Court invalidates all redistricting commissions, the Dems probably do a map like this?

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::f4eb85c9-6061-4b59-86fd-27be40d2191d

Kean could very well hold that NJ-07 in 2024.

He wouldn't even win that in 2022. It's Biden +12 and stacks Piscataway, Morristown, Plainfield into a district with rural Sussex and parts of Dem trending Morris. I believe that map would be a very effective 11-1 gerrymander.

It's a fairly clean map, 2 needs an arm into Camden county to be a double-digit Biden seat. Dems would have nothing to worry about in 12 given trends in Hunterdon, Somerset.

Pre- 2016 the Dems probably couldn't do more than 10-2 (need a NW pack) but the 2016-2020 trends in NJ are extremely favorable for Dems geography because they gained in suburbs, exurbs and only lost ground in deep blue cities, deep red Ocean (perfect for a GOP pack).

Kean barely lost an Biden+10 seat in 2020. No reason to think he can’t win a Biden+12 in 2022, a better year for his party

These are the worst type of GOP voters post Roe. Honestly I’m not sure Kean holds the NJ-7 he’s running in past 2024.

The 7th in that map is Clinton +5 and less ancestrally R than the current 7th. My point is that NJ Dems would draw a very effective gerrymander with this map.

Honestly though given what the commission drew which was already Dems proffered map, it seems like they want Milnowski to lose to get someone better for the seat while locking in everyone else in North Jersey. They also didn’t unpack Coleman’s seat which is notable

They easily could have gotten NJ-07 to look like its old incarnation. That probably still knocks out Malinowski for 2022 but barring Kean turning into the next Fitzpatrick he’s out no later than 2026.

We'll see. A lot of this will likely be hindsight. The new NJ-07 is still shifting the fastest left of any of the districts on the new map whereas PA-01 has a lot of internal countershifts that have kept the district relatively balanced politically for a while now.

Also, we'll see how Kean votes in congress but I have a feeling he's not going to be as moderate as the Fritzpatricks and Katkos, prolly more akin to the Mace crowd.

It is interesting though how these districts neighbor eachother

It would’ve taken little effort to just give Malinowski Plainfield. There’s not a huge reason to make NJ-12 as packed as it is, COI isn’t perfect as is so why not trade some munis. Giving NJ-07 Hopewell and Plainfield would bring him to like Biden +8.

[Atlas Force]

So is there a reason the current NJ-02 uses water contiguity to take in a part of Berkeley township? Sorry for the bump but I didn't think this question really deserved its own thread.

[Torie]

Well, drawing CD lines in my current home state of NJ is always a challenge, but I decided to do the exercise based on neutral metrics, and that hack tie breaker retired judge really did snatch a seat from the Pubs, and in a grotesque manner to boot. I guess the Dems knew what was in the guy's brain in advance or something.

[Tekken_Guy]

Well, drawing CD lines in my current home state of NJ is always a challenge, but I decided to do the exercise based on neutral metrics, and that hack tie breaker retired judge really did snatch a seat from the Pubs, and in a grotesque manner to boot. I guess the Dems knew what was in the guy's brain in advance or something.

It’s possible to give Republicans a second North Jersey seat too.

[Torie]

Well, drawing CD lines in my current home state of NJ is always a challenge, but I decided to do the exercise based on neutral metrics, and that hack tie breaker retired judge really did snatch a seat from the Pubs, and in a grotesque manner to boot. I guess the Dems knew what was in the guy's brain in advance or something.

It’s possible to give Republicans a second North Jersey seat too.

Not based on neutral metrics. I generally follow the Muon2 rules absent rather compelling circumstances (e.g.,, appending the Hispanic part of Newark to the Hispanic Palisades of Hudson County to get the Hispanic percentage up, which I would not do otherwise because avoidable large chops of municipalities are disfavored). But yes, a Pub gerrymander can squeeze out another CD, which I suppose could be "justified" as hewing to proportionality (7D-5R), which has been invoked to support what would otherwise be Dem gerrymanders (PA and MI and NC (until redrawn), come to mind).

[kwabbit]

Well, drawing CD lines in my current home state of NJ is always a challenge, but I decided to do the exercise based on neutral metrics, and that hack tie breaker retired judge really did snatch a seat from the Pubs, and in a grotesque manner to boot. I guess the Dems knew what was in the guy's brain in advance or something.

How is that with regards to municipal splitting? That's the more important political boundary in NJ, more so than county.

[Torie]

Counties trump munis in most places That said, in NJ to chop the Newark muni is rather compelling to up in Hispanic percentage in the Hudson County based CD, and the black percentage in the Essex County based CD. And thus it is still justified, even if Munis rule ala New England over counties. It does not do much violence to the map in any event, and none to the division of the partisan spoils.

[S019]

Well, drawing CD lines in my current home state of NJ is always a challenge, but I decided to do the exercise based on neutral metrics, and that hack tie breaker retired judge really did snatch a seat from the Pubs, and in a grotesque manner to boot. I guess the Dems knew what was in the guy's brain in advance or something.

What were the 2020 numbers on that 7th?

[Torie]

Well, drawing CD lines in my current home state of NJ is always a challenge, but I decided to do the exercise based on neutral metrics, and that hack tie breaker retired judge really did snatch a seat from the Pubs, and in a grotesque manner to boot. I guess the Dems knew what was in the guy's brain in advance or something.

What were the 2020 numbers on that 7th?

Per my map, Trump 2020 won by three points.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/af980daa-0afb-4e98-b88a-3d745c7455fd

[S019]

Well, drawing CD lines in my current home state of NJ is always a challenge, but I decided to do the exercise based on neutral metrics, and that hack tie breaker retired judge really did snatch a seat from the Pubs, and in a grotesque manner to boot. I guess the Dems knew what was in the guy's brain in advance or something.

What were the 2020 numbers on that 7th?

Per my map, Trump 2020 won by three points.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/af980daa-0afb-4e98-b88a-3d745c7455fd

That would definitely fall in 2026, if a Republican was President and there's a good chance it falls in 2024. I would say it's a lean Republican seat, but not really a stolen extra seat. It is definitely gone in 2028 though, while the state swung 11 pts right from 2017 to 2021, Morris County (my home) swung only 3 pts right.

[kwabbit]

Well, drawing CD lines in my current home state of NJ is always a challenge, but I decided to do the exercise based on neutral metrics, and that hack tie breaker retired judge really did snatch a seat from the Pubs, and in a grotesque manner to boot. I guess the Dems knew what was in the guy's brain in advance or something.

What were the 2020 numbers on that 7th?

Per my map, Trump 2020 won by three points.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/af980daa-0afb-4e98-b88a-3d745c7455fd

That would definitely fall in 2026, if a Republican was President and there's a good chance it falls in 2024. I would say it's a lean Republican seat, but not really a stolen extra seat. It is definitely gone in 2028 though, while the state swung 11 pts right from 2017 to 2021, Morris County (my home) swung only 3 pts right.

The stolen seat, if there is one, would be in South Jersey. Most neutral maps yield 3 seats that the GOP could’ve won in 2022. Van Drew’s seat might not elect a Democrat for a long time, even if it’s competitive by 2020 numbers, and fairer configuration of Kim’s seat would be extremely competitive, with the outcome depending on whether it took in parts of Mercer. Including Hamilton/Robbinsville is fair, but the inclusion of Lawrence was not.