2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: New Jersey

[Roll Roons]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/f03cb506-4850-456c-b12d-eaa371cb21c2

Map with a new Northwest sink. The typical balance will be 7D-4R-1T, which accurately reflects the state's partisanship.

Summary of the districts, assuming Joe Biden and all incumbents win in November:
NJ-01: Basically the same as now. Most of Camden County, and a bit more than half of Gloucester. Norcross will hold it easily. Safe D.

NJ-02: Very similar to the current district, though it includes a little bit more of Ocean. Closely divided at the presidential level, but more Republican downballot. We'll see if Van Drew becomes entrenched like LoBiondo was. Lean R initially.

NJ-03: Now the most Republican seat in the state, losing the PA border to consist of most of Ocean, Waterford in Camden, and the more exurban/rural parts of Burlington. Joint Base McGuire-Dix-Lakehurst remains in the district. No Democrat would have a chance here. Safe R.

NJ-04: Slightly more Democratic than before, losing its share of Ocean (apart from half of Jackson Township) and gaining Monroe and half of Old Bridge in Middlesex, while still holding the majority of Monmouth and extending an arm into Mercer to accommodate Smith's hometown. He should be OK while he's around. It could be competitive if it opens up, but Republicans would be favored. Safe R with Smith, Likely R if open.

NJ-05: Now entirely within Bergen, and therefore far more Democratic. Gottheimer will be just fine in general elections, though he might have primary troubles. Safe D.

NJ-06: Doesn't change that much, but it picks up a bit of Union, most notably heavily Democratic Plainfield, while dropping part of Old Bridge and some coastal Monmouth towns. Pallone's for as long as he wants it. As an aside, this district probably has the highest concentration of Indian-Americans in the country. Safe D.

NJ-07: The Northwest GOP sink. Now includes Princeton, all of Hunterdon and Warren, most of Sussex and Somerset, and a handful of towns from Morris, Union and Passaic. Malinowski lives here, but would have almost no chance of winning. There are a lot of GOP officeholders here, and pretty much anyone other than a Scott Garrett-type lunatic should be able to keep this district for a long time. Safe R.

NJ-08: 42% Hispanic seat based in Hudson County. Still includes Jersey City, Hoboken and most of Elizabeth, in addition to more of Union County. Splits Union Township with the 10th. Sires will have this seat forever. Safe D.

NJ-09: Now includes all of Passaic aside from West Milford, the Northwest corner and Southern tip of Bergen, Secaucus in Hudson and Nutley, Belleville and part of Montclair in Essex. Pascrell and Sherrill both live here, but the current 11th is basically her district, so she'd run there. Safe D.

NJ-10: 47% black seat based in urban Newark. Also includes some of the Essex suburbs, such as the Oranges and most of Montclair, along with a good part of Union Township. It's pretty similar to the current one, and Payne has this for life. Safe D.

NJ-11: The swingiest seat in the state, and generally similar to the current one. Still includes almost all of Morris, the Northern and Western Essex suburbs (including my hometown of Short Hills), the southern part of Sussex, and several suburban towns in Union. Sherrill lives in the 9th, but this district includes most of her current territory, so she'd likely run here. Fun fact is that Jared Kushner and Chris Christie are both from this district. Probably a Tossup to start, since Sherrill is strong, but Republicans have a good bench in the district and would have a good chance in a Biden midterm.

NJ-12: The ugliest seat on the map. Shares a lot of territory with the current, particularly Mercer (including Trenton), Middlesex and Franklin in Somerset, but also takes in the Burlington suburbs that are closest to Philly. Honestly, it makes a lot more sense to put them with Trenton than Ocean. Kim and Watson Coleman both live here, but she's in her 70s so she might just retire and let him have a long career. Safe D.


Caveat about NJ-07 and NJ-11: Tom Kean Jr. lives in Westfield in Union County. If he wins in November, the 7th would lose its share of Morris and the Union town of New Providence to the 11th, while gaining Westfield and the neighboring town of Mountainside. As a result, the 11th, which would now include all of Morris, becomes marginally more Republican and the 7th slightly less so, but it should still be enough for him.  

With NJ-03, Kate Gibbs lives in Lumberton, and David Richter actually lives in Princeton, but would move to Ocean County. Either of them winning this fall would not affect the map.

How the map would look if Kean wins: https://davesredistricting.org/join/baa840f7-e14f-4b2e-bcaa-6f8f4a337fd1

[Roll Roons]

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::4dd4e48d-0c0a-4464-9585-f5331587297a

Map with a new Northwest sink. The typical balance will be 7D-4R-1T, which accurately reflects the state's partisanship.

Summary of the districts, assuming all incumbents win in November:
NJ-01: Basically the same as now. Most of Camden County, and a bit more than half of Gloucester. Norcross will hold it easily. Safe D.

NJ-02: Very similar to the current district, though it includes a little bit more of Ocean. Closely divided at the presidential level, but trending Republican. We'll see if Van Drew becomes entrenched like LoBiondo was. Lean R initially.

NJ-03: Now the most Republican seat in the state, losing the PA border to consist of most of Ocean, Waterford in Camden, and most of the rural/exurban parts of Burlington. Joint Base McGuire-Dix-Lakehurst remains in the district. A Democrat would have no chance here. Safe R.

NJ-04: Slightly more Democratic than before, losing its share of Ocean (apart from half of Jackson Township) and gaining Monroe and half of Old Bridge in Middlesex, while still holding the majority of Monmouth and extending an arm into Mercer to accommodate Smith's hometown. He should be OK while he's around. It could be competitive if it opens up, but Republicans would be favored. Safe R with Smith, Likely R if open.

NJ-05: Now entirely within Bergen. Gottheimer will be fine in general elections, though he might have primary troubles. Safe D.

NJ-06: Doesn't change that much, but it picks up a bit of Union, most notably heavily Democratic Plainfield, in exchange for part of Old Bridge and some coastal Monmouth towns. Pallone's for as long as he wants it. As an aside, this district probably has the highest concentration of Indian-Americans in the country. Safe D.

NJ-07: The Northwest GOP sink. Now includes Princeton, all of Hunterdon and Warren, most of Sussex and Somerset, and a handful of towns from Morris, Union and Passaic. Malinowski lives here, but would have little chance of winning. There are a lot of GOP officeholders here, and pretty much anyone other than a Scott Garrett-type lunatic should be able to keep this district for a long time. Safe R.

NJ-08: 42% Hispanic seat based in Hudson County. Still includes Jersey City, Hoboken and most of Elizabeth, in addition to more of Union County. Splits Union Township with the 10th. Sires will have this seat forever. Safe D.

NJ-09: Now includes all of Passaic aside from West Milford, the Northwest corner and Southern tip of Bergen, Secaucus in Hudson and Nutley, Belleville and part of Montclair in Essex. Pascrell and Sherrill both live here, but the current 11th is basically her district, so she'd run there. Safe D.

NJ-10: 47% black seat based in urban Newark. Also includes some of the Essex suburbs, such as the Oranges and most of Montclair, along with a good part of Union Township. It's pretty similar to the current one, and Payne has this for life. Safe D.

NJ-11: The swingiest seat in the state, and generally similar to the current one. Still includes almost all of Morris, the Northern and Western Essex suburbs (including my hometown of Short Hills), the southern part of Sussex, and several suburban towns in Union. Sherrill lives in the 9th, but this district includes most of her current territory, so she'd likely run here. Fun fact is that Jared Kushner and Chris Christie are both from this district. Probably a Tossup to start, since Sherrill is strong, but Republicans have a good bench in the district.

NJ-12: The ugliest seat on the map. Shares a lot of territory with the current, particularly Mercer (including Trenton), Middlesex and Franklin in Somerset, but also takes in the Burlington suburbs that are closest to Philly. Honestly, it makes a lot more sense to put them with Trenton than Ocean. Kim and Watson Coleman both live here, but she's in her 70s so she might just retire and let him have a long career. Safe D.


Caveat about NJ-07 and NJ-11: If Tom Kean Jr. wins in November, his hometown of Westfield and the neighboring town of Mountainside, which are in the 11th, would shift to the 7th in exchange for Harding, Chatham and Long Hill in Morris and New Providence in Union. As a result, the 11th would become marginally more Republican and the 7th slightly less so, but it should still be fine for Kean.

With NJ-03, Kate Gibbs lives in Lumberton, and David Richter actually lives in Princeton, but would move to Ocean County. Either of them winning this fall would not affect the map.

How the map would look if Kean wins: https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::62bc8924-cfd8-4509-96e6-fbae9a241eeb

u need to use the share link, not copy the url from the address bar cuz no one can see it

Fixed!

[Roll Roons]

I want to keep two R PVI districts in the North (making Gottheimer's more Democratic by cutting out Warren and Sussex, though it would only be D+1 or so - not out of reach in a good Republican year). Would it be better to have the 7th and the 11th both be around R+5, or make the 7th R+7 and while keeping the 11th R+3? My current map has the 11th take all of Morris, in addition to western Essex, some suburban Union towns, the northernmost part of Somerset (Bedminster, Far Hills, Bernardsville) and the southeast corner of Sussex. The 7th has all of Hunterdon and Warren, the rest of Sussex, the bulk of Somerset, and several other towns in Union. Malinowski and Sherrill (who technically lives in the 9th, but would likely run in the 11th) would both be underdogs in a Biden midterm, but could survive.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/f03cb506-4850-456c-b12d-eaa371cb21c2

Alternatively, I can make the 7th more Republican by having it lose its share of Union to the 11th, while it would gain the latter's share of Sussex and Somerset, along with a couple towns in Northern Morris. In a Biden midterm, Malinowski would likely be DOA, while Sherrill would have a fighting chance, but still be very vulnerable.

[Roll Roons]

I want to keep two R PVI districts in the North (making Gottheimer's more Democratic by cutting out Warren and Sussex, though it would only be D+1 or so - not out of reach in a good Republican year). Would it be better to have the 7th and the 11th both be around R+5, or make the 7th R+7 and while keeping the 11th R+3? My current map has the 11th take all of Morris, in addition to western Essex, some suburban Union towns, the northernmost part of Somerset (Bedminster, Far Hills, Bernardsville) and the southeast corner of Sussex. The 7th has all of Hunterdon and Warren, the rest of Sussex, the bulk of Somerset, and several other towns in Union. Malinowski and Sherrill (who technically lives in the 9th, but would likely run in the 11th) would both be underdogs in a Biden midterm, but could survive.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/f03cb506-4850-456c-b12d-eaa371cb21c2

Alternatively, I can make the 7th more Republican by having it lose its share of Union to the 11th, while it would gain the latter's share of Sussex and Somerset, along with a couple towns in Northern Morris. In a Biden midterm, Malinowski would likely be DOA, while Sherrill would have a fighting chance, but still be very vulnerable.

You should probably make them both R+5.

I was thinking that as well. Plus if Kean wins this fall, he gets a safer district.

[Roll Roons]

In terms of redistricting, it's kind of annoying that Smith lives in blue Mercer and Pallone lives in red Monmouth.

[Roll Roons]

Decent map. I played around with it a bit to make NJ-08 slightly less blue. Kean would likely run in that district against Sherrill, which would be one of the most hotly contested House races in the country.

[Roll Roons]

Decent map. I played around with it a bit to make NJ-08 slightly less blue. Kean would likely run in that district against Sherrill, which would be one of the most hotly contested House races in the country.

Would be curious to see your map!

https://davesredistricting.org/join/bf72bced-3dec-481c-9f1c-ad8e04cf50b7

TL;DR taking Plainfield out makes a massive difference. There were also a few other small shifts in various places, but NJ-08 is the only district where the partisanship significantly changes from yours.

[Roll Roons]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/02e60080-eaa0-44c2-a204-f9b76a7be3d0
least-change map

Assuming 2022 is a good enough year for Republicans, NJ-03, NJ-05, NJ-07 and NJ-11 could all be vulnerable with this map.

[Roll Roons]

Is there a way to create a Democratic or at least competitive district centered around Atlantic City?

The current NJ-02 was only Trump +3, so it's fairly competitive on paper. LoBiondo's popularity made it Safe R while he was there.

But it's probably hard to put AC into a reliably blue district without some weird baconstrip to Camden.

[Roll Roons]

Damm just found out Malinowski was a Rhodes Scholar. What a shame.

So was David Vitter. It doesn't mean someone is a good person or politician.

[Roll Roons]

Omg the 2021 GOV precincts are gonna look brutal for Dems I can see it just now guys i'm shaking

Do you think it's possible to draw 7 Ciaterelli districts?

I'm guessing 2, 3, 4, 5, 7, and 11 went for the GOP. That leaves 6. I think it's possible that Ciatarelli won it but it includes New Brunswick, Perth Amboy, Piscataway etc so it might be hard for him to crack it.

I think Murphy won NJ-06 by 3-4 points. But Ciattarelli did win the others.

[Roll Roons]

In my first foray ever into DRA, I've managed to draw a map that went 11-1 for Biden/Booker/Clinton and 10-2 for Menendez/Murphy and gives every Democrat a solid path to reelection.

I paid no attention to any laws/COIs/etc and probably violated thousands of requirements. Many incumbents are slightly outside of their districts, but lines could probably easily be modified to get their homes within them. I don't know.

Don't know how to get a picture but here's a link: https://davesredistricting.org/join/9283b68b-0bc2-4a5d-95cc-9d4bdb4dba15

Details:

NJ-01: Biden +45. Technically open by Sires lives just outside and would run here.
NJ-02: Biden +57 for Payne.
NJ-03: Biden +31 for Pascrell. Technically double-bunked with Sires but he would run in NJ-01.
NJ-04: Biden +11 for Gottheimer.
NJ-05: Biden +14 for Sherrill.
NJ-06: Biden +10. Smith, Watson Coleman, and Malinowski are triple-bunked but Watson Coleman probably runs here, Malinowski goes for NJ-07 and Smith for NJ-10.
NJ-07: Biden +25. Technically open but Malinowski would probably run here.
NJ-08: Biden +15 for Pallone.
NJ-09: Biden +7. Technically open but Kim lives just outside and would run here. Vulnerable in a GOP-favored cycle but Kim is probably strong enough to hold.
NJ-10: Trump +13. Technically Kim lives here but would run in NJ-09, Smith probably runs here.
NJ-11: Biden +10. Technically open but Norcross lives just outside and would run here.
NJ-12: Biden +6 to draw out Van Drew. He may survive a GOP-favored cycle but would not last.

This could be up to 8-4 Republican in a GOP wave year.

Actually, Tom Kean might still be able to make that NJ-7 competitive. Without Trump on the ticket I'm wondering if we'll see his State Senate-level overperformances translate to the congressional level. It's probably just wishful thinking though like Hogan in MD-SEN.

Unfortunately, Biden +25 is probably a bridge too far even for someone like him in a GOP wave year.

[Roll Roons]

2020 results by leg district

As of 2022 there will be 5 Biden seats held by a GOP state senator

Districts 2, 8, 21, 25, and 39.

All of those districts also have all-Republican assembly delegations. LD-11 was also won by Biden and will have two Republican assemblywomen, though its Senator is a Democrat. It’ll also be the only district with split representation.

I feel like NJ Republicans really do punch above their weight in terms of winning territory that should be unfavorable.

[Roll Roons]

Looks like the two sides may come to a compromise without the tiebreaker needing to intervene:
https://twitter.com/wildstein/status/1472976699444846594

[Roll Roons]

Highly doubt that's even remotely legit. But we'll see.

Almost certainly not. The account has 17 followers and was just created this month.

[Roll Roons]

Update on the proposals: https://newjerseyglobe.com/campaigns/we-have-the-democratic-and-republican-congressional-maps-heres-whats-being-proposed/

Looks like Malinowski is screwed and Kean is going to Congress no matter what.

[Roll Roons]

I wonder if Ciattarelli won the new NJ-03, NJ-05 or NJ-11.

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/wildstein/status/1473682096749260804

Jesus Herbert Walker Christ.

[Roll Roons]

Can Kean win in a district that contains Linden and Rahway? They are not Republican-friendly...

And Sherill gets another term because Maplewood and South Orange is added there...

I think given Malinowski's weakness and the fact that it's a good GOP year in 2022, Kean will win. However in 2024 with a presidential election Kean could definitely be in some trouble.

What if Malinowski runs in a different district or retires? Does that increase or decrease Kean's chances of winning?

Actually, speaking of Jack Ciattarrelli, he should be living in the new NJ-7, maybe he'll consider challenging Kean with the publicity and attention (and credibility on the R side) he gained this fall?

He already said he's running for Gov again in 4 years so I don't think so.

Yeah, his ambitions are clearly in state politics and not federal.

[Roll Roons]

So is there a chance the map is actually overturned or do they just want more info and will pretty much accept whatever he says unless it's completely ergregious?

Probably the second option, but we'll see.

[Roll Roons]

https://newjerseyglobe.com/redistricing/for-challenge-to-n-j-congressional-map-supreme-court-asks-democrats-to-respond-to-one-count-in-gop-complaint/

Honestly, I may keep a close eye on this one. Wallace may have completely screwed himself with that comment.

[Roll Roons]

Yall need to realize that NJ globe site is right leaning. I'm not gonna fret until a reputable source talks about this.

It's still been the best source for NJ politics in the past couple years. And Wildstein is a Republican, but the site is really not partisan. You might be thinking of Save Jersey, which is unabashedly a GOP partisan site.

[Roll Roons]

Legislative map drafts being released on Monday: https://twitter.com/wildstein/status/1488931101334806540?cxt=HHwWmIC94dW836kpAAA...

At the very least, there'll be some time for public comments. Hopefully this guy is better than Wallace.

[Roll Roons]

F**k this. What a joke.

[Roll Roons]

We want the state leg districts!!!

What time are we expecting to see them?