2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: New Jersey

[Nyvin]

I'd like to see NJ-4 become an Ocean County centered district with parts of southern Monmouth and get removed from the Trenton area entirely.   

Then NJ-3 can be focused on Mercer (Trenton) and Burlington counties, and NJ-2 can be the southern "Van Drew" district.

I'm also kind of hoping that a Republican district can get drawn up north, since I really think a 9D - 3R delegation will be a lot more stable than 10D - 2R going forward.



Pretty sure the AA district and Hispanic district in the NYC suburbs are set in stone,  not much else you can do there.

[Nyvin]

Meh, I think it's possible to have two safe D districts in South NJ.    There actually is a pretty solid road connection between Atlantic and Camden so it's not as crazy as it seems (ignoring what Donald Norcross would say about this map).







https://davesredistricting.org/join/b6718d39-93c8-45c7-a4c3-f3bda6a29954

Initially I thought shoring up all northern NJ dems was a horrible idea, but if you go strictly by 2020 results I guess it's possible.   Then again Biden just did great in the entire Northeast region so maybe that's not a good idea...?  This is assuming the NY Times process produces reliable results for converting to DRA maps.

It's actually not really possible to draw an R "sink" in NW NJ if you go by 2020 results, you can only get a normal, Safe R seat.

I guess it's just going to be a gamble to see if 2020 results are the new norm or just a one time occurrence.  

That all said I still think a 10D-2R map is probably in the NJ Dems best interests, especially in a 2022 midterm environment.

2020 Results (Based on NY Times page)

NJ-1   
55.07%   43.51%

NJ-2   
56.52%   42.23%

NJ-3   
62.13%   36.54%

NJ-4   
36.59%   62.11%

NJ-5   
59.04%   39.86%

NJ-6   
56.53%   42.20%

NJ-7   
44.37%   53.93%

NJ-8   
72.81%   26.27%

NJ-9   
59.10%   39.83%

NJ-10   
82.42%   16.66%

NJ-11   
60.18%   38.46%

NJ-12   
60.48%   38.20%

(no the map doesn't take incumbency residency into account)

[Nyvin]

There's a showdown in the NJ State Supreme Court over who will be the tiebreaker.  Wallace is the D and Corodemus is the R more or less.   The "tiebreaker" in the NJ commission is basically a dictator for NJ redistricting.  All 7 members of the State Supreme Court must vote one or the other, no abstentions.

https://newjerseyglobe.com/congress/n-j-supreme-court-will-pick-tiebreaker-on-congressional-redistricting/

[Nyvin]

Important to note that, by tradition, whichever side "loses" the congressional map decision is generally given the "win" on the legislative map decision.   That's what happened in both 2001 and 2011.

R's got their congressional map in both 2001 and 2011.  I think in 2001 it was probably overall a good deal for D's, but in 2011 the D's kinda got screwed since their legislative majorities were secure anyway.

[Nyvin]

Important to note that, by tradition, whichever side "loses" the congressional map decision is generally given the "win" on the legislative map decision.   That's what happened in both 2001 and 2011.

R's got their congressional map in both 2001 and 2011.  I think in 2001 it was probably overall a good deal for D's, but in 2011 the D's kinda got screwed since their legislative majorities were secure anyway.

Frankly I think whichever side gets their congressional map is who will ultimately be the winner. Just 2 or 3 extra seats in the House in such a polarized environment full of close elections is really valueable, especially since anything other than an extreme R Gerry (which presumably wouldn’t be chosen) isn’t going to put Dems state legislative majorities on the line. Ig the one thing that could be important in the state legislative maps could be the Dem map will prolly offer a more viable path to a supermajority, but considering NJ has and will likely continue to have liberal Dem govs, it doesn’t matter too much.

Any chance that Dems could get Kean’s vote for a 9-3 map that turns NJ-07 into a tailor made Trump district for him?

If the court picks the Dem as tiebreaker the Dems aren't giving up anything. I would expect 5,11 to get a few points bluer and 7 to get towns on the edges to make it Biden +15 or so. I think the Dems would have agreed on a tiebreaker if they wanted to trade 5,11,3 for 7 but are hoping they can keep all 4.

This is mostly likely the reason for sending it to the State Supreme Court.   Probably the only thing either party really cares about is the Congressional map for obvious reasons. 

The NJ Dems probably want to at least try to get everything and if they lose they really don't lose all that much anyway.

The two outcomes I see are 9-3 or 10-2.   8-3-1 would be best case scenario for Republicans, but probably isn't happening.

[Nyvin]

If it Dems try 10-2 or 11-1 they might get 6-6 in 2022. Even 9-3 might be very shaky in 2022, I could easily Kim, Sherrill, or Gottheimer losing their seats if Rs got a strong candidate but each would be favored, and would be fine in any presidential year.

I agree, they're pretty much in the same boat as say, Ed Perlmutter or Peter DeFazio. If they're in seats Biden only won by low double digits, then there's a decent chance they'd be the inverse of SC-1 or OK-5. Of course they'll flip right back in 2024.

If Dems draw a 9-3 map in NJ those districts are going to be like Biden+15 at minimum (around there).

If Republicans are flipping seats like that they're winning like 230+ seats nationally so it's almost a moot point.

Nothing in a 9-3 NJ map is going to be R's 218th seat.

[Nyvin]

If it Dems try 10-2 or 11-1 they might get 6-6 in 2022. Even 9-3 might be very shaky in 2022, I could easily Kim, Sherrill, or Gottheimer losing their seats if Rs got a strong candidate but each would be favored, and would be fine in any presidential year.

I agree, they're pretty much in the same boat as say, Ed Perlmutter or Peter DeFazio. If they're in seats Biden only won by low double digits, then there's a decent chance they'd be the inverse of SC-1 or OK-5. Of course they'll flip right back in 2024.

If Dems draw a 9-3 map in NJ those districts are going to be like Biden+15 at minimum (around there).

If Republicans are flipping seats like that they're winning like 230+ seats nationally so it's almost a moot point.

Nothing in a 9-3 NJ map is going to be R's 218th seat.

Obviously none of the more marginal D seats in a 9-3 would be the 218th seat, but they might be seats 235-250, definite possibilities in 2022.

Incumbency isn't a huge advantage anymore, but NJ Republicans are moderate, can reflect their districts well, and build popularity. Once they get in, they might be hard to get out. Frelinghuysen and MacArthur might still be there if they didn't retire, for example, despite Biden winning their districts.

My point is that even though none of these seats would decide the balance of power in the House in 2022, it would be unwise to let moderate Rs become established in those districts, because in 2024 perhaps they could outperform the top of the ticket and potentially decide the House.

I mean...sure...but what's the point?   Texas R's can't draw every incumbent a Trump+25 seat or something, so they settle for what they can.   Same goes for NJ.

You can't draw solid D/R seats everywhere for every incumbent and make sure it's "SAFE NO MATTER WHAT!!".  They can't prepare for utter catastrophes.

Also, you say incumbency doesn't matter as much anymore and then go on to explain how the new R's could become entrenched incumbents....?

[Nyvin]

I guess I wanted to see how hard an 11-1 map is to make.





https://davesredistricting.org/join/13df5dd4-bbc8-44c5-b3be-b844f9af6b45

It has the respective VRA seats and everything is at least 55% Biden except 4 and 6.  NJ-4 is the R sink and NJ-6 is 54.5% Biden.

The only municipality splits are in 8 and 10 (VRA seats).

[Nyvin]

If they actually draw Van Drew a safe R district then Republicans should be REALLY happy.

[Nyvin]

Looks like a 9-2-1 map, not 9-3

[Nyvin]

Neither proposal was perfect but I think from most metrics the GOP map was far superior.

Seems to be a common theme of the party out of power proposing the more fair map.

[Nyvin]

Monmouth Democrats want Abigail Spanberger to come home to New Jersey to run against Chris Smith!!

https://newjerseyglobe.com/congress/monmouth-democratic-leader-recruiting-virginia-congresswoman-to-challenge-chris-smith/

Can she beat Smith in a 2022 campaign? She'd be called a carpetbagger.

Challenge an established popular incumbent in a Trump+22 district.   That would probably go down as the worst decision by any member of Congress ever.

[Nyvin]

Most of the R gerrymandering in the small to mid sized states (anything smaller than North Carolina/Gerogia) just comes from splitting up the states metros.   

Split up Salt Lake County, Split up Nashville, split up Little Rock, split up Oklahoma City, and split up Charleston (last one might be a bit tricky to avoid due to VRA, but there's obviously fishy business going on in the current map).

These districts would be so basic and elementary under any fair standards that proportionality is hardly even needed.   Just give the cities their own darn districts.