2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: New Jersey

[Brittain33]

Light blue district is +6 Biden and it meets all basic requirements lol.

Looks compact and doesn’t unduly favor one party. Well done!

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Light blue district is +6 Biden and it meets all basic requirements lol.

Looks compact and doesn’t unduly favor one party. Well done!

This is what my non-partisan map would look like. It preserves counties and townships and strongly protects communities of interest.

[Tintrlvr]

If Dems had any brains, Gottheimer is the North Jersey incumbent they should dump. He's been nothing but trouble for the party.

The positioning of his district makes that harder to do.

It would be very easy to put Wyckoff, Gottheimer’s hometown in a red district by combining it with Sussex, Warren, western Passaic, etc. Whether he’d just carpetbag to a safer district is a different question.

What I hope will happen is they include his home in a Kean sink to make all the other North Jersey seats Titanium D, and then he carpetbags and loses his primary to an actual Democrat, but unfortunately this has a very small chance of coming to pass.

To produce such a district would require very odd lines to both be a sink and have Westfield and Wyckoff in it. I think Gottheimer would run in any Bergen-based seat, even if it didn't include his home, and he would be favored to win the primary. As far as I can tell he seems like a good fit for his district, being an anti-tax moderate Dem, which very much exemplifies suburban Jersey. His primary opponent would likely be Pascrell, who just seems too old to defeat Gottheimer.

Pascrell's home territory is also in Passaic County, and he'll run in whichever district Paterson ends up, so it's very unlikely a map would be able to draw Pascrell and Gottheimer into the same seat while not drawing a Bergen-centric district Gottheimer could run in regardless of where Wyckoff itself was placed.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

If Dems had any brains, Gottheimer is the North Jersey incumbent they should dump. He's been nothing but trouble for the party.

The positioning of his district makes that harder to do.

It would be very easy to put Wyckoff, Gottheimer’s hometown in a red district by combining it with Sussex, Warren, western Passaic, etc. Whether he’d just carpetbag to a safer district is a different question.

What I hope will happen is they include his home in a Kean sink to make all the other North Jersey seats Titanium D, and then he carpetbags and loses his primary to an actual Democrat, but unfortunately this has a very small chance of coming to pass.

To produce such a district would require very odd lines to both be a sink and have Westfield and Wyckoff in it. I think Gottheimer would run in any Bergen-based seat, even if it didn't include his home, and he would be favored to win the primary. As far as I can tell he seems like a good fit for his district, being an anti-tax moderate Dem, which very much exemplifies suburban Jersey. His primary opponent would likely be Pascrell, who just seems too old to defeat Gottheimer.

Pascrell's home territory is also in Passaic County, and he'll run in whichever district Paterson ends up, so it's very unlikely a map would be able to draw Pascrell and Gottheimer into the same seat while not drawing a Bergen-centric district Gottheimer could run in regardless of where Wyckoff itself was placed.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/289d3c90-9645-4866-9b71-088cafdf212d
this should be able to draw out Gottheimer and destroy his re-election chances. But it's extremely ugly.

[_.]

I don't get why you all use the word "Suburb" so much in this thread.

"Suburban New Jersey" is redundant.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I don't get why you all use the word "Suburb" so much in this thread.

"Suburban New Jersey" is redundant.

Fair point.

[If my soul was made of stone]

Made an attempt at an 11-1, with a heavy bias towards South Jersey 'cause Burlington and Camden Counties and the Shore are the only parts of the state of which I have worthy firsthand knowledge:



Four seats are majority-minority, including a Black seat based in Newark and a doozy of a Hispanic seat that snakes from Paterson to Elizabeth (allowing a potential Hispanic-opportunity seat based in the bulk of Hudson County, though arguments for concentrating the vote more are clear). An unfortunate side effect of this configuration is the absence of potential for an Asian-opportunity seat, which I've attempted in all of my (God-awful) fair or 10-2 maps but doesn't quite work out here.

DRA scores it a 0 for both proportionality and county splits–only Cape May, Hunterdon, Ocean, and Warren are left unmolested.

[Sol]

I've been playing around with a different configuration for the VRA seats in Northeast NJ in a fair map (so not taking incumbent preferences, machine politics, etc. into account).

Here's an updated version of this concept, with the current census numbers.

NJ-10 is actually majority Black by CVAP (barely)!

[LabourJersey]

I don't get why you all use the word "Suburb" so much in this thread.

"Suburban New Jersey" is redundant.

There's a lot of genuine urban areas in New Jersey: Newark, Hoboken, Jersey City, Paterson. Plus a bunch of dense suburbs that might feel urban to people from other parts of the country (my hometown had a density of 5500 people per square mile--does everyone think of that as suburban?)

On the flip side, there's parts of South Jersey in the Pine Barrens and parts of Sussex & Warren counties that are quite rural

[If my soul was made of stone]

I've been playing around with a different configuration for the VRA seats in Northeast NJ in a fair map (so not taking incumbent preferences, machine politics, etc. into account).

Here's an updated version of this concept, with the current census numbers.

NJ-10 is actually majority Black by CVAP (barely)!

This is an excellent configuration of the VRA seats, though I have some gripes with how you organized things elsewhere.

In response, here's my latest (and only decent thus far) attempt at a fair map, with municipal splits avoided as much as possible:



I'll freely admit that the county splits not done for VRA reasons are a bit of a mess, though.

[CookieDamage]

Since we're posting fair maps.



https://davesredistricting.org/join/b4901597-d9e1-4ddd-9355-4afa728479cb

[If my soul was made of stone]

A majority-minority state leg seat in Cumberland and Atlantic (not that this would ever happen, just a proof of concept):



40% white, 30% Hispanic, 23% Black VAP. Three is far too many municipal splits to pass muster, but in this case it's necessary to ensure that the other districts could be contiguous, as well as population equality in this messy part of the world.

[sting in the rafters]

10/1/1 map.

Majority black seat based on Newark/the Oranges, 2 40+% Hispanic seats bc given partisanship primary control matters more than getting an outright majority. Ds should really go for 10/2 w/the Highlands and Ocean County as R-sinks bc any 10/1/1 map turns to 3/8/1 in an R-wave and the party's done nothing in the ground game to give faith they'd hold that

Light blue district is +6 Biden and it meets all basic requirements lol.

Looks compact and doesn’t unduly favor one party. Well done!

This is what my non-partisan map would look like. It preserves counties and townships and strongly protects communities of interest.

Gerrymander!? I barely know her!

[If my soul was made of stone]

10/1/1 map.

Majority black seat based on Newark/the Oranges, 2 40+% Hispanic seats bc given partisanship primary control matters more than getting an outright majority. Ds should really go for 10/2 w/the Highlands and Ocean County as R-sinks bc any 10/1/1 map turns to 3/8/1 in an R-wave and the party's done nothing in the ground game to give faith they'd hold that

All these municipal splits are giving me a headache.

The 12th seems very weak for a Hispanic seat, given the turnout dynamics of its component parts and all. Paterson's just sitting on its hands there in the Bergen seat and could easily be added there while balancing things out by moving the heavily white/Asian parts of Bergen up north, without that much change in partisanship in what'll already be a tough hold for the Dems in a Dem midterm.

Props to you for having the willpower to draw Perth Amboy into a Hispanic seat, though. That's something that I always joke about but never works out.

[sting in the rafters]

10/1/1 map.

Majority black seat based on Newark/the Oranges, 2 40+% Hispanic seats bc given partisanship primary control matters more than getting an outright majority. Ds should really go for 10/2 w/the Highlands and Ocean County as R-sinks bc any 10/1/1 map turns to 3/8/1 in an R-wave and the party's done nothing in the ground game to give faith they'd hold that

All these municipal splits are giving me a headache.

The 12th seems very weak for a Hispanic seat, given the turnout dynamics of its component parts and all. Paterson's just sitting on its hands there in the Bergen seat and could easily be added there while balancing things out by moving the heavily white/Asian parts of Bergen up north, without that much change in partisanship in what'll already be a tough hold for the Dems in a Dem midterm.

Props to you for having the willpower to draw Perth Amboy into a Hispanic seat, though. That's something that I always joke about but never works out.

Good looks, yeah Paterson in the 8th was entirely an oversight. Dk how the more upscale portions of Bergen got in the 12th, that alone took it from 40 to 48% Hispanic which given demos takes it to majority by 2030. Disagree on the 8th's vulnerability tho at least in terms of triage, obvi trends are favorable at least on paper relative to the other marginals given educational polarization and income depolarization. Both South Jersey districts are prolly swings by the end of the decade given its more and more to resembling Delmarva than the Philly metro at large.

Splits were originally for the intent of salvaging the compactness score however evidently that went to s---. In hindsight VRA districts should prolly be drawn first as opposed to last, gonna have to get back in the lab.

[Pessimistic Antineutrino]

Decided to try my hand at a fair map - this is what I came up with. Focus was initially on compactness, then CoIs, so there ended up not being a black majority district or a 40%+ Hispanic district (the Paterson district is 39%), but with 4 majority-minority districts, and 6 at 45%+ minority. Even though I didn't draw this with incumbents in mind, the new 5th ends up being a perfect fit for Gottheimer, which I'm sure Democrats here will love.

2020 results and incumbent:

NJ-01: Biden +57, Payne
NJ-02: Biden +52, Sires
NJ-03: Biden +36, Sherill (Kean gets screwed here)
NJ-04: Biden +24, Pascrell
NJ-05: Biden +5, Gottheimer
NJ-06: Trump +5, nobody
NJ-07: Biden +34, Malinowski
NJ-08: Biden +22, Watson Coleman and Smith (Smith prob runs in the 10th)
NJ-09: Biden +26, Norcross
NJ-10: Trump+9, Pallone (he gets screwed)
NJ-11: Trump+5, Kim (tough but winnable)
NJ-12: Trump +1, Van Drew

Should balance out to 8-3-1 on average; 12-0 is theoretically possible but unlikely even in a blue wave, 7-5 possible in a red wave.



https://davesredistricting.org/join/21f9458f-90b7-4082-9352-df616e66a959

With VRA in mind, I did another version where I tried my best to create an Asian opportunity district - the 7th, which ended up being 30% Asian. I also redid the Newark district to take out Elizabeth and add the Oranges to make it 48% black, which I think makes more sense from a CoI standpoint.

[BoiseBoy]

Final map coming Wednesday December 22. There are no public versions of any of the proposals they have worked on. I hope we get to see something before the final vote.

https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1472978975802679296?s=20

[Roll Roons]

Looks like the two sides may come to a compromise without the tiebreaker needing to intervene:
https://twitter.com/wildstein/status/1472976699444846594

[Tintrlvr]

Decided to try my hand at a fair map - this is what I came up with. Focus was initially on compactness, then CoIs, so there ended up not being a black majority district or a 40%+ Hispanic district (the Paterson district is 39%), but with 4 majority-minority districts, and 6 at 45%+ minority. Even though I didn't draw this with incumbents in mind, the new 5th ends up being a perfect fit for Gottheimer, which I'm sure Democrats here will love.

2020 results and incumbent:

NJ-01: Biden +57, Payne
NJ-02: Biden +52, Sires
NJ-03: Biden +36, Sherill (Kean gets screwed here)
NJ-04: Biden +24, Pascrell
NJ-05: Biden +5, Gottheimer
NJ-06: Trump +5, nobody
NJ-07: Biden +34, Malinowski
NJ-08: Biden +22, Watson Coleman and Smith (Smith prob runs in the 10th)
NJ-09: Biden +26, Norcross
NJ-10: Trump+9, Pallone (he gets screwed)
NJ-11: Trump+5, Kim (tough but winnable)
NJ-12: Trump +1, Van Drew

Should balance out to 8-3-1 on average; 12-0 is theoretically possible but unlikely even in a blue wave, 7-5 possible in a red wave.



https://davesredistricting.org/join/21f9458f-90b7-4082-9352-df616e66a959

With VRA in mind, I did another version where I tried my best to create an Asian opportunity district - the 7th, which ended up being 30% Asian. I also redid the Newark district to take out Elizabeth and add the Oranges to make it 48% black, which I think makes more sense from a CoI standpoint.

As I've said many times before, the Burlington-Ocean connection is not "fair" in any sense of the word. You could do it two both reasonable other ways: drop Gloucester from the southern district and do Atlantic-Ocean, or put Burlington with Trenton and then Monmouth with eastern Middlesex (I think that's probably the better option). But no fair map would have a Burlington-Ocean link; the two counties have no connections at all despite their long border, and the border area is completely unpopulated wilderness at the heart of the Pine Barrens.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Looks like the two sides may come to a compromise without the tiebreaker needing to intervene:
https://twitter.com/wildstein/status/1472976699444846594

Democrats better not wimp out again

[S019]

8-4 should be a minimum, Democrats have leverage here and should use it, especially after a Republican gerrymander was passed last cycle by Republicans using that same leverage. Any map with more than one Republican seat in New Jersey should immediately be thrown out.

[Oryxslayer]

Looks like the two sides may come to a compromise without the tiebreaker needing to intervene:
https://twitter.com/wildstein/status/1472976699444846594

Democrats better not wimp out again

What's this 'again?' Last time they held few to no cards thanks to Christie's influence over the tiebreaker. This time the D's hold most, with the only R-held cards being: the peculiar geographic distribution of incumbents, and the recent legislative elections leading to a desire for more and safer Democratic districts on those maps.

[Pessimistic Antineutrino]

As I've said many times before, the Burlington-Ocean connection is not "fair" in any sense of the word. You could do it two both reasonable other ways: drop Gloucester from the southern district and do Atlantic-Ocean, or put Burlington with Trenton and then Monmouth with eastern Middlesex (I think that's probably the better option). But no fair map would have a Burlington-Ocean link; the two counties have no connections at all despite their long border, and the border area is completely unpopulated wilderness at the heart of the Pine Barrens.

Ah ok. I'm admittedly not familiar at all with the localities of South Jersey, being from the suburbs up north. Criticism noted, back to the drawing board.

[Sol]

I've been playing around with a different configuration for the VRA seats in Northeast NJ in a fair map (so not taking incumbent preferences, machine politics, etc. into account).

Here's an updated version of this concept, with the current census numbers.

NJ-10 is actually majority Black by CVAP (barely)!

This is an excellent configuration of the VRA seats, though I have some gripes with how you organized things elsewhere.

In response, here's my latest (and only decent thus far) attempt at a fair map, with municipal splits avoided as much as possible:



I'll freely admit that the county splits not done for VRA reasons are a bit of a mess, though.

Interested in your critiques!

I suspect we have some sort of zone of disagreement on how exactly to handle central Jersey (with corresponding rotations to the south).

Sorry for the slow response, have been busy.

[Tekken_Guy]

Is there a chance NJ Dems choose to cut a different Democrat, like Kim or Gottheimer, or is it defiintely going to be Malinowski?