2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: New Jersey

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I would strongly disagree with the idea the 2012 lines were a dummymander, moreover they were highly successful for 2-3 cycles in creating an even delegation in a state that had not voted R for president in the past three decades and had only came within single digits less than half of the time.
The GOP definitely gained more than they lost from the map, the end was merely too much for it to handle.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I decided to explore the hypothetical where NJ does their incumbent protection thing when the delegation is 10-2 and the two republicans do not match the locations of the two most efficient GOP packs. Turns out that it isn't too hard to get the map to work. One just needs to get the north/south border seats, 6 and 12, to reorient towards the north of the state. Getting the minority seats to support the 10-2 is also crucial.



NJ01: D+10.4, the safest non-minority seat on the map goes to Norcross of course.
NJ02: R+7.3, not enough to scare drew in the primary, but enough for him to remain safe if he remains in the Republican Party.
NJ03: D+7, takes in the near bits of Hamilton township that Smith doesn't need. Also ends up as a sort of 'exurban' seat, since Norcross desires his suburbs,
NJ04: R+10.2, standard Monmouth GOP pack.
NJ05: D+6.4, fully inside Bergen.
NJ06: D+6.6, reoriented northwards into the republican enclaves in Union.
NJ07: D+6.5, gets Plainfield plus her environs to support the seat.
NJ08: D+26.1, this seat can't really change. There are ways to rip out Bayonne  and Hoboken, but doing so just distributes the weight of the present seat into that new district, unhelpful when cracking Hudson.
NJ09: D+6.6, obvious drop in partisanship as the surrounding seats get more blue.
NJ10: D+24.4, the AA seat gets fully unpacked in a way that supports the map, but leaves the seat still with a strong >45% AA plurality.
NJ11: D+5.4, more of Essex to reinforce the seat.
NJ12: D+7.3, a reversal of the current NJ05. This is the key to the entire map, since it allows the mid-state seat to help crack the GOP areas in the NW.

This is a masterpiece. Good job.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I want to keep two R PVI districts in the North (making Gottheimer's more Democratic by cutting out Warren and Sussex, though it would only be D+1 or so - not out of reach in a good Republican year). Would it be better to have the 7th and the 11th both be around R+5, or make the 7th R+7 and while keeping the 11th R+3? My current map has the 11th take all of Morris, in addition to western Essex, some suburban Union towns, the northernmost part of Somerset (Bedminster, Far Hills, Bernardsville) and the southeast corner of Sussex. The 7th has all of Hunterdon and Warren, the rest of Sussex, the bulk of Somerset, and several other towns in Union. Malinowski and Sherrill (who technically lives in the 9th, but would likely run in the 11th) would both be underdogs in a Biden midterm, but could survive.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/f03cb506-4850-456c-b12d-eaa371cb21c2

Alternatively, I can make the 7th more Republican by having it lose its share of Union to the 11th, while it would gain the latter's share of Sussex and Somerset, along with a couple towns in Northern Morris. In a Biden midterm, Malinowski would likely be DOA, while Sherrill would have a fighting chance, but still be very vulnerable.

You should probably make them both R+5.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

In fairness the redistricting process in NJ isn't especially fair--judges select the preferred map from ones presented by the Dems and Reps IIRC.

It goes to a tiebreaker, relatively similar to AZ. IIRC D's got the legislative gerrymander to a degree while R's got the congressional dummymander due to Christy pressure.

Couldn’t Dems have refused to allow a former Republican to be the tiebreaker in NJ?

They could have but I think in exchange they got the legislative gerrymander?

Wouldn't surprise me, given this is New Jersey.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Pretty decent neutral map. I like it.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Not sure what I'd call this map, I suppose it is a fair map in the lfromnj sense of the word?
The main thrust of it is county integrity I guess.
I have two compact performing majority-minority seats, and one white plurality seat. I created a whole Northern Jersey CD formed of Sussex, Warren, and Morris counties.
I really like my 9th. Combined with the 8th (which only takes Elizabeth to keep performing, and is otherwise contained with Essex and Hudson) and the 10th (similarly contained within those two counties), and the fact that Morris, Sussex, and Warren together form a whole count CD, I think the overall result is quite nice.
https://davesredistricting.org/join/0e8b0804-fadc-4670-8233-bc0d21682e25

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Not sure what I'd call this map, I suppose it is a fair map in the lfromnj sense of the word?
The main thrust of it is county integrity I guess.
I have two compact performing majority-minority seats, and one white plurality seat. I created a whole Northern Jersey CD formed of Sussex, Warren, and Morris counties.
I really like my 9th. Combined with the 8th (which only takes Elizabeth to keep performing, and is otherwise contained with Essex and Hudson) and the 10th (similarly contained within those two counties), and the fact that Morris, Sussex, and Warren together form a whole count CD, I think the overall result is quite nice.
https://davesredistricting.org/join/0e8b0804-fadc-4670-8233-bc0d21682e25

I would do a rotation between 5 and 9 to have 5 take in South Bergen so 9 can take in Western Bergen.

Is this a revision suggestion or a statement on how you'd draw it? If it's the former, I don't think I could get behind that, since it would harm compactness.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Other than that for a county integrity map its not bad for NJ. NJ counties are actually pretty important COI's really but the problem is its a state with only 21 counties but has 12 districts.

Yeah, even in a county integrity map you'll find yourself having to split some counties at least three times due to the location of some counties, the exact populations of said counties, and the exact number of districts.
I wonder how things might change in an 11 district map?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Not sure what I'd call this map, I suppose it is a fair map in the lfromnj sense of the word?
The main thrust of it is county integrity I guess.
I have two compact performing majority-minority seats, and one white plurality seat. I created a whole Northern Jersey CD formed of Sussex, Warren, and Morris counties.
I really like my 9th. Combined with the 8th (which only takes Elizabeth to keep performing, and is otherwise contained with Essex and Hudson) and the 10th (similarly contained within those two counties), and the fact that Morris, Sussex, and Warren together form a whole count CD, I think the overall result is quite nice.
https://davesredistricting.org/join/0e8b0804-fadc-4670-8233-bc0d21682e25

please don't put burlington and ocean together

It's a choice that can be made validly on a map.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Not sure what I'd call this map, I suppose it is a fair map in the lfromnj sense of the word?
The main thrust of it is county integrity I guess.
I have two compact performing majority-minority seats, and one white plurality seat. I created a whole Northern Jersey CD formed of Sussex, Warren, and Morris counties.
I really like my 9th. Combined with the 8th (which only takes Elizabeth to keep performing, and is otherwise contained with Essex and Hudson) and the 10th (similarly contained within those two counties), and the fact that Morris, Sussex, and Warren together form a whole count CD, I think the overall result is quite nice.
https://davesredistricting.org/join/0e8b0804-fadc-4670-8233-bc0d21682e25

please don't put burlington and ocean together

It's a choice that can be made validly on a map.

Sure, just like splitting Bucks.

Ocean and Burlington are both South Jersey. Mercer is Central while Burlington is South.
Mercer being paired with parts of the corridor due east in the line from Philly and NYC is a valid choice.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Ocean is more NYC oriented though, while Burlington is clearly more in the Philly sphere of influence.

Plus there's a decent argument to be made that Eastern and Western South Jersey should be kept separate, since they have pretty different cultures and are separate by the remote and sparsely populated Pine Barrens.

I happen to think that while Mercer+Burlington is a decent pairing, so is Ocean+Burlington. There are arguments in favor of both so I don't have a strong preference for either. What I do there tends to be affected by other parts of the map. I used to hate the idea of Burlingocean as opposed to Mercerlington, but that was when I was more influenced by the likes of Stephen Wolf.
The Pine Barrens argument is also a double-edged sword if raised in objection to a Burlingocean district, because you could argue you are actually dividing the Pine Barrens into two neat districts - a northern one (the 3rd) and a southern one (the 2nd).

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Not sure what I'd call this map, I suppose it is a fair map in the lfromnj sense of the word?
The main thrust of it is county integrity I guess.
I have two compact performing majority-minority seats, and one white plurality seat. I created a whole Northern Jersey CD formed of Sussex, Warren, and Morris counties.
I really like my 9th. Combined with the 8th (which only takes Elizabeth to keep performing, and is otherwise contained with Essex and Hudson) and the 10th (similarly contained within those two counties), and the fact that Morris, Sussex, and Warren together form a whole count CD, I think the overall result is quite nice.
https://davesredistricting.org/join/0e8b0804-fadc-4670-8233-bc0d21682e25

I don't think this is fair given Western Essex was linked to Middlesex, west Essex clearly belongs with Morris, I think Union+taking more of Middlesex in from 12 could work, but the current 6th does feel somewhat like a leftover seat, but I think Essex to Middlesex is just a bridge too far, Woodbridge and Livingston have very little in common.

Northern Jersey was built around the VRA seats (which were drawn first), and Morris+Sussex+Warren.
I balked at that 6th as well, but I felt I had no real choice. The VRA seats can't soak up heavily white far N Essex and I wanted just two districts within Bergen, and there isn't enough people in Bergen+Passaic for districts based there to take in North Essex. If I let the Hispanic seat lose Elizabeth and take in parts of Bergen (it has enough wiggle room), it would only lengthen the 5th's tail, unless I redrew the black seat as well. I suppose it's possible to rejig things, and this might even erase a county split.
I am willing to tolerate a very clearly unideal district if it makes the overall map better. The flipside of the problematic 6th is a better 11th, 7th, 5th, and 10th.
I shall now see if the 6th being improved will destroy what is good about other northern New Jersey districts.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Inspired by Sol's post above regarding an extra VRA seat:

I started in northern Jersey, with a district linking Paterson with northern Hudson County, and then tried to make a second district with maximized Latino potential. Then the black seat was drawn. I then did some tweaks to the districts so that one CD could be nested entirely within Bergen, and then still more tweaks to ensure a third district didn't cross the Essex-Union county border. In general I tried to keep county splits down and things aestetically good looking, and I kept township splits to the minimum. I kept to Michigan Rules (i.e. no two districts can split two distinct counties) throughout, also making use of the VRA exemption from that.

Before anyone asks: the demographics of the current NJ-08 are very close to my Paterson-to-Union City CD, being only 2 points less Latino in total population. And the total population % of my NJ-10 is just 3 points less black than its current version.

This is a pretty decent fair map - with 7D, 4R, and 1S being probably the closest one can get to the state composition. NJ-11 goes from Trump+1 to Trump+5; NJ-07 from Clinton+1 to Trump+6; NJ-03 from Trump+6 to Trump+14. On the other hand, NJ-02 loses its entire share of Ocean and Burlington, since this is Michigan Rules and I wanted to get rid of those county splits anyway. The result is that the seat goes from Trump+5 to Trump+2.
https://davesredistricting.org/join/f996a258-e778-4b51-a238-7932fd7a15a8
(also, I am not reconsidering pairing Burlington and Ocean counties on this map, period. My stance on this has not changed)

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

In terms of redistricting, it's kind of annoying that Smith lives in blue Mercer and Pallone lives in red Monmouth.

For sure.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

In terms of redistricting, it's kind of annoying that Smith lives in blue Mercer and Pallone lives in red Monmouth.

For sure.

You chopped the most beautiful city in America! 

A municipal split there was inevitable. I wish I didn't have to split Hoboken, but it is what it is.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The main aim of this map was to create an as-Asian-as-possible CD centered on Middlesex. It wound up having more consequences than I expected. NJ-07 had to eat much more of Morris, which caused NJ-11 to have to eat into Bergen. I was forced into abandoning the possibility of a all-in-Bergen CD. I suppose the Morris CD could have gone into Essex instead, but that would make the map less fair and probably intrude too much into minority areas. In the end, I found myself drawing a white sink in Northern Jersey, drawn to collect white liberal areas. NJ-08 is now containing all of Hudson, but it retains a robust Latino plurality and is probably still performing. All-in-all, the map makes some different choices in both South and North Jersey, generally geared towards increasing the number of seats with generally lower white %.
https://davesredistricting.org/join/92521fc3-ee6e-44d9-a283-1067385f48a4

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

redid North Jersey.
Created a very similar arrangement to my 3 VRA seat map previously. This marries the two maps I made most recently together.
This produces a grand total of 4 performing majority-minority seats.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Our flat in Hoboken is directly below the "t" in the "1st St" label on the map.

Visited Hoboken a few times. Lovely place.

For some reason, Sesame Street comes to mind when I see that image.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The map was an R map back in 2011 but I think Dems push for a minimal change map now. They may try to add a town or two to NJ-7 to help Malinowski but this district is trending Dem anyway. If Rs don't win it in 2022 they might be done there.

1   725,385   -14,490
2   714,970   -24,905
3   737,329   -2,546
4   740,459   584
5   736,696   -3,179
6   734,224   -5,651
7   738,729   -1,146
8   762,993   23,118
9   752,075   12,200
10   751,743   11,868
11   735,060   -4,815
12   749,035   9,160
These are the populations of current CDs on 2019 population estimates.
Some northward shift of the CDs is inevitable it seems.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/02e60080-eaa0-44c2-a204-f9b76a7be3d0
least-change map

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/02e60080-eaa0-44c2-a204-f9b76a7be3d0
least-change map

Assuming 2022 is a good enough year for Republicans, NJ-03, NJ-05, NJ-07 and NJ-11 could all be vulnerable with this map.

Not really disagreeing - what just trying to figure out what a map along the lines Devil30 mentioned would look like.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Is there a way to create a Democratic or at least competitive district centered around Atlantic City?

The current NJ-02 was only Trump +3, so it's fairly competitive on paper. LoBiondo's popularity made it Safe R while he was there.

But it's probably hard to put AC into a reliably blue district without some weird baconstrip to Camden.

The mixture of Dem and Rep areas and the populations involved makes it difficult for South Jersey to have no swing districts in a reasonable map.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Every district here voted for Hillary Clinton, and no district has a 2012/2016 PVI in excess of R+1. Every district is at least likely to elect a Democrat.
https://davesredistricting.org/join/f964ac21-05eb-4132-89f6-aed93f281235

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

snip

Well, I never said it was impossible. Just difficult.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

100 percent chance of a northwest vote sink now.

RIP Malinowski.

Yeah, trying for 10-2 would surely be far too risky if 2022 is now likely a wave.

Yep just work on saving Kim, Sherill, and Gottheimer by giving them all Biden + 10 districts.

Biden+10 might not be enough to save them, especially if suburban reversion hits NJ hard in 2022. The districts probably have to dig deep into the urban districts of 8, 9, 10 to be fully shored up.

Yeah, 9-3 is probably the safest long-term play for Dems (regardless of whether 2022 is a wave or not). Not all of the 9 are going to be Safe D but gerrymandering is about balancing higher seat county and more safe districts anyway.