2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: New Jersey

[CookieDamage]

Redid my other gerrymander because all of them were either plurality or majority white



District 1 is majority hispanic at 50%
District 2 is plurality black at 49%

Every other Biden district is at least 57-40 or 58-40 or so. The two exceptions are districts 5 (55-43) and 12 (55-42)

https://davesredistricting.org/join/54d13aca-ce9c-4245-827f-74745b0a8c01

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Redid my other gerrymander because all of them were either plurality or majority white



District 1 is majority hispanic at 50%
District 2 is plurality black at 49%

Every other Biden district is at least 57-40 or 58-40 or so. The two exceptions are districts 5 (55-43) and 12 (55-42)

https://davesredistricting.org/join/54d13aca-ce9c-4245-827f-74745b0a8c01

Seats bias   -1.67%   Half the difference in seats at 50% vote share
Votes bias   -0.23%   The excess votes required for half the seats
Declination   -43.59°   A geometric measure of packing & cracking
Global symmetry   -0.85%   The overall symmetry of the seats-votes curve
Gamma   -30.07%   The fair difference in seats at the map-wide vote share
Efficiency gap   -23.31%   The relative two-party difference in wasted votes
Partisan bias   -1.56%   The difference in seats between the map-wide vote share and the symmetrical counterfactual share
Proportional   -31.38%   The simple deviation from proportionality using fractional seat shares
Mean–median   1.46%   The average vote share across all districts minus the median vote share
Turnout bias   -1.35%   The difference between the map-wide vote share and the average district share
Lopsided outcomes   3.07%   The relative two-party difference in excess vote shares
Proportional seats   6.97   The fractional Democratic seats for the map-wide vote share
Geographic seats   9.49   The fractional Democratic seats implied by county political geography
Geographic bias   -21.04%   The bias due to county political geography
Map seats   10.73   The fractional Democratic seats for the map
Boundary bias   -10.34%   The bias due to district lines
Somehow it's even more Dem biased than before. Lol.

[CookieDamage]

Somehow it's even more Dem biased than before. Lol.

I know dats righttt

[CookieDamage]

Minimal change map (except for 3 and 4 which swapped considerable territory)



https://davesredistricting.org/join/896ac84b-eb45-4159-9a03-9a155246384c

[CookieDamage]

And tried my hand at a fair map

https://davesredistricting.org/join/65ad8a31-6609-42ef-be56-86423c60e669

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/princetongerry/status/1468249709516976128?s=20

[CookieDamage]

Dem leg gerry

[Brittain33]

I wonder how much of that Democratic Monmouth County shore district will be inhabitable in 2070.

[CookieDamage]

I wonder how much of that Democratic Monmouth County shore district will be inhabitable in 2070.

How much are sea levels projected to rise by then?

[Skill and Chance]

I wonder how much of that Democratic Monmouth County shore district will be inhabitable in 2070.

All of it, most likely.  NYC area is more than wealthy enough to build a durable seawall.

[Brittain33]

I wonder how much of that Democratic Monmouth County shore district will be inhabitable in 2070.

All of it, most likely.  NYC area is more than wealthy enough to build a durable seawall.

They're struggling to get the political will to build defenses in Lower Manhattan. Sandbars on the Atlantic can't and won't be protected, and it's unlikely the lower Bay (west of Sandy Hook) will be protected. Manhattan needs that part of NJ to bear the brunt of surges.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Dem leg gerry

That Southern Jersey R pack is a work of art.

[If my soul was made of stone]

I tried making a fair legislative map, but ended up with a 29-11 blowout for both HRC and Biden (and for Murphy '17, but there are two Trump-Murphy-Trump and two HRC-Guadagno-Biden seats). DRA rates it as very proportional for '16, '17, and Menendez '18 (who wins 23 seats, one less than the Dems currently hold in the State Senate), but a mess for '20.




Four Hispanic seats (not as heavily Hispanic as desired, but the geography isn't ideal and hopefully Passaic County's racial polarization will ensure performance), two Black seats, two Asian >30% seats.

[Mr. Matt]

Nice preservation of the Keith line

[CookieDamage]

Nice preservation of the Keith line

I love the East and West Jersey historical divide.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Nice preservation of the Keith line

I love the East and West Jersey historical divide.

Average North vs South Jersey fan
Average East vs West Jersey enjoyer

[compucomp]

Malinowski is not going down without a fight and is aggressively lobbying the commission to not turn his seat into an R sink. Here's an example of the conflict of interests between individual lawmakers and the national party spilling out into the open.

Article

Rep. Tom Malinowski is vulnerable in redistricting and his supporters know it.

That’s why dozens of pro-Malinowski witnesses have turned out to testify at otherwise sleepy meetings of the New Jersey Redistricting Commission. They’re desperately trying to prevent him from becoming a sacrificial lamb to save other, increasingly nervous Democratic incumbents.

It’s an aggressive approach that’s alienated some in his party. But Malinowski, one of the nation’s most endangered incumbents, doesn’t have much choice. In an election year where Democrats are facing headwinds to keep their five-seat House majority, the New Jersey congressman has the task of convincing Democrats on the commission to fight for every one of their incumbents in redistricting instead of cutting their losses by setting him up for defeat.

[Antonio the Sixth]

If Dems had any brains, Gottheimer is the North Jersey incumbent they should dump. He's been nothing but trouble for the party.

[Mr.Phips]

If Dems had any brains, Gottheimer is the North Jersey incumbent they should dump. He's been nothing but trouble for the party.

The positioning of his district makes that harder to do.

[kwabbit]

If Dems had any brains, Gottheimer is the North Jersey incumbent they should dump. He's been nothing but trouble for the party.

The positioning of his district makes that harder to do.

It would be very easy to put Wyckoff, Gottheimer’s hometown in a red district by combining it with Sussex, Warren, western Passaic, etc. Whether he’d just carpetbag to a safer district is a different question.

[GALeftist]

If Dems had any brains, Gottheimer is the North Jersey incumbent they should dump. He's been nothing but trouble for the party.

The positioning of his district makes that harder to do.

It would be very easy to put Wyckoff, Gottheimer’s hometown in a red district by combining it with Sussex, Warren, western Passaic, etc. Whether he’d just carpetbag to a safer district is a different question.

What I hope will happen is they include his home in a Kean sink to make all the other North Jersey seats Titanium D, and then he carpetbags and loses his primary to an actual Democrat, but unfortunately this has a very small chance of coming to pass.

[kwabbit]

If Dems had any brains, Gottheimer is the North Jersey incumbent they should dump. He's been nothing but trouble for the party.

The positioning of his district makes that harder to do.

It would be very easy to put Wyckoff, Gottheimer’s hometown in a red district by combining it with Sussex, Warren, western Passaic, etc. Whether he’d just carpetbag to a safer district is a different question.

What I hope will happen is they include his home in a Kean sink to make all the other North Jersey seats Titanium D, and then he carpetbags and loses his primary to an actual Democrat, but unfortunately this has a very small chance of coming to pass.

To produce such a district would require very odd lines to both be a sink and have Westfield and Wyckoff in it. I think Gottheimer would run in any Bergen-based seat, even if it didn't include his home, and he would be favored to win the primary. As far as I can tell he seems like a good fit for his district, being an anti-tax moderate Dem, which very much exemplifies suburban Jersey. His primary opponent would likely be Pascrell, who just seems too old to defeat Gottheimer.

[Brittain33]

Gottheimer also has an absurd amount of money banked.

[LabourJersey]

Gottheimer also has an absurd amount of money banked.

The thing about Gottheimer is that in a lot of ways he does suit his district---a lot of Bergen County suburbanites are very well-off (especially by national standards if not necessarily North Jersey suburbia standards) and only vote for the Democratic party because of social liberalism and a contempt for Trump.

It makes more sense logistically to sacrifice Malinowski and shore up Gottheimer and the other Dems

[It's not just that you are a crook senator]

 Light blue district is +6 Biden and it meets all basic requirements lol.