2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: New Jersey

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Tie breaker Wallace's rationale for picking the Dem map? The Pub map was picked last time. That's it. Nothing more. Not sure why Wallace bothered to show up at the hearings. His mind was made up from day one. He gave the Dems his proxy vote.

https://twitter.com/wildstein/status/1473683787968036866?s=20
On one level this is a total L O L, on another though it shows that the D Courts and Murphy were the indirect arbiters of the outcome - just like Christie was in 2011. The NJ system is horrible, but it is working as designed.

Since the NJ Supreme Court picked Wallace (biased, and apparently close to non compos mentis to boot), it shows that partisan courts are far too often packed with political hacks who don't give a damn about their oath of office to be impartial and not be partisan hacks. Impeach and convict and remove them all.

But Torie you told us in the NY and FL thread the courts weren't complete hacks lol

[cvparty]

Would be phenomenal if somebody could get their hands on a DRA link - curious to see how Menendez '18 performed on this map.

Malinowski can probably keep his loss to Kean respectable here. Kean will probably have to cut out a Fitzpatrick/Katko-type profile to survive here long-term. Gottheimer should probably hope that NJ progressives remain as incompetent and poorly organized as they are. Van Drew can still be threatened in a particularly poor year for Republicans and these lines probably continue to keep him willing to cross party lines on some things as he did with the infrastructure bill.

Overall a map that likely sheds Dems but requires the requisite Republicans to moderate in some way - not a bad result for the party.

Here ya go (town splits aren't exact but it's less than a 1% difference in population). I find it odd that they didn't go all the way in sacrificing Malinowski's seat but at the same time didn't help him with D turf in neighboring Coleman's district, which is the most Democratic non-VRA district in the state

Also, Van Drew is pretty much safe for the decade in NJ-02. South Jersey is trending GOP hard, and Ciattarelli won the district by over 20%

[Tekken_Guy]

Would be phenomenal if somebody could get their hands on a DRA link - curious to see how Menendez '18 performed on this map.

Malinowski can probably keep his loss to Kean respectable here. Kean will probably have to cut out a Fitzpatrick/Katko-type profile to survive here long-term. Gottheimer should probably hope that NJ progressives remain as incompetent and poorly organized as they are. Van Drew can still be threatened in a particularly poor year for Republicans and these lines probably continue to keep him willing to cross party lines on some things as he did with the infrastructure bill.

Overall a map that likely sheds Dems but requires the requisite Republicans to moderate in some way - not a bad result for the party.

Here ya go (town splits aren't exact but it's less than a 1% difference in population). I find it odd that they didn't go all the way in sacrificing Malinowski's seat but at the same time didn't help him with D turf in neighboring Coleman's district, which is the most Democratic non-VRA district in the state

Maybe Coleman is planning on retiring and Malinowski will run in the 12th.

[Mr. Matt]

Looks like the new 2nd is doubly discontinuous by roadways. Because the new 3rd is all of Burlington County and the southernmost crossing of Little Egg Harbor/Mullica River is the Garden State Parkway, and the northern end of that bridge is Bass River Twp., BurlCo, there's one. Another really small one exists at the northern end- There's a small part of residential Berkeley Twp. on the barrier island south of Seaside Park (4th) with the closest connection being Route 37 in Toms River.

I'm waiting on pins and needles to find out where Chris Smith moves his phony apartment unit to (since he otherwise lives full time with his family in Virginia).

[Torie]

Tie breaker Wallace's rationale for picking the Dem map? The Pub map was picked last time. That's it. Nothing more. Not sure why Wallace bothered to show up at the hearings. His mind was made up from day one. He gave the Dems his proxy vote.

https://twitter.com/wildstein/status/1473683787968036866?s=20
On one level this is a total L O L, on another though it shows that the D Courts and Murphy were the indirect arbiters of the outcome - just like Christie was in 2011. The NJ system is horrible, but it is working as designed.

Since the NJ Supreme Court picked Wallace (biased, and apparently close to non compos mentis to boot), it shows that partisan courts are far too often packed with political hacks who don't give a damn about their oath of office to be impartial and not be partisan hacks. Impeach and convict and remove them all.

But Torie you told us in the NY and FL thread the courts weren't complete hacks lol

Keep hope alive! Notice however that it seems the party controlling the trifecta does seem constrained a bit in both NY and FL from acting on their most rapacious impulses, based on the law proscribing unduly favoring one party. And in NJ, since there are no legal standards other than federal ones, the hackness was about choice of personnel rather than blowing off the law or twisting it into a pretzel.

[Oryxslayer]

Apparently this is a 9-3 Murphy '21 map according to JMC, going from 6-6 previously.

[Torie]

Here is the Menendez map. He won NJ-03 and NJ-05 by 5 and 6 percentage points respectively.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Looks like Chris Smith might have to move to Ocean County.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Looks like Chris Smith might have to move to Ocean County.

Already has said he will

[Tekken_Guy]

Here is the Menendez map. He won NJ-03 and NJ-05 by 5 and 6 percentage points respectively.

How much did he win 11 by?

[Torie]

Here is the Menendez map. He won NJ-03 and NJ-05 by 5 and 6 percentage points respectively.

How much did he win 11 by?

8.4%

[BoiseBoy]

Neither proposal was perfect but I think from most metrics the GOP map was far superior.

[Nyvin]

Neither proposal was perfect but I think from most metrics the GOP map was far superior.

Seems to be a common theme of the party out of power proposing the more fair map.

[Brittain33]

Neither proposal was perfect but I think from most metrics the GOP map was far superior.

Yes, and if the GOP tiebreaker had been chosen instead of Wallace, they would likely have pushed their advantage much further rather than gone for a least-change compromise map like they submitted.

[Tekken_Guy]

Hot take: I think there is a possibility one of Gottheimer or Kim lose in 2022, and that Mikie Sherrill's race is within 5 points. And I could very well see a double-digit win for Kean in 2022.

[Mr.Phips]

Hot take: I think there is a possibility one of Gottheimer or Kim lose in 2022, and that Mikie Sherrill's race is within 5 points. And I could very well see a double-digit win for Kean in 2022.

Even Phil Murphy won these districts.  I could see them being within five points, but it’s highly unlikely that they’ll actually lose. 

[Tekken_Guy]

Hot take: I think there is a possibility one of Gottheimer or Kim lose in 2022, and that Mikie Sherrill's race is within 5 points. And I could very well see a double-digit win for Kean in 2022.

Even Phil Murphy won these districts.  I could see them being within five points, but it’s highly unlikely that they’ll actually lose. 

I think Republicans will run credible candidates in all these districts and they'll come a lot closer than expected. But yeah I don't see them actually winning them.

[LabourJersey]

Hot take: I think there is a possibility one of Gottheimer or Kim lose in 2022, and that Mikie Sherrill's race is within 5 points. And I could very well see a double-digit win for Kean in 2022.

Even Phil Murphy won these districts.  I could see them being within five points, but it’s highly unlikely that they’ll actually lose. 

I think Republicans will run credible candidates in all these districts and they'll come a lot closer than expected. But yeah I don't see them actually winning them.

Ciatterelli was a very credible candidate too...

[Suburbia]

Can Kean win in a district that contains Linden and Rahway? They are not Republican-friendly...

And Sherill gets another term because Maplewood and South Orange is added there...

[Tekken_Guy]

Hot take: I think there is a possibility one of Gottheimer or Kim lose in 2022, and that Mikie Sherrill's race is within 5 points. And I could very well see a double-digit win for Kean in 2022.

Even Phil Murphy won these districts.  I could see them being within five points, but it’s highly unlikely that they’ll actually lose. 

I think Republicans will run credible candidates in all these districts and they'll come a lot closer than expected. But yeah I don't see them actually winning them.

Ciatterelli was a very credible candidate too...

I never said they were going to win.

[LabourJersey]

Can Kean win in a district that contains Linden and Rahway? They are not Republican-friendly...

And Sherill gets another term because Maplewood and South Orange is added there...

I think given Malinowski's weakness and the fact that it's a good GOP year in 2022, Kean will win. However in 2024 with a presidential election Kean could definitely be in some trouble.

[Tekken_Guy]

Can Kean win in a district that contains Linden and Rahway? They are not Republican-friendly...

And Sherill gets another term because Maplewood and South Orange is added there...

I think given Malinowski's weakness and the fact that it's a good GOP year in 2022, Kean will win. However in 2024 with a presidential election Kean could definitely be in some trouble.

What if Malinowski runs in a different district or retires? Does that increase or decrease Kean's chances of winning?

[Oryxslayer]

Can Kean win in a district that contains Linden and Rahway? They are not Republican-friendly...

And Sherill gets another term because Maplewood and South Orange is added there...

I think given Malinowski's weakness and the fact that it's a good GOP year in 2022, Kean will win. However in 2024 with a presidential election Kean could definitely be in some trouble.

What if Malinowski runs in a different district or retires? Does that increase or decrease Kean's chances of winning?

Net neutral in my opinion. Loses the incumbency name rec. That could be a net negative among the certain subsection of voters that will check the incumbents box and move on, for other voters it could be a net positive given that Malinowski has been making news for the wrong reasons recently.

[compucomp]

Can Kean win in a district that contains Linden and Rahway? They are not Republican-friendly...

And Sherill gets another term because Maplewood and South Orange is added there...

I think given Malinowski's weakness and the fact that it's a good GOP year in 2022, Kean will win. However in 2024 with a presidential election Kean could definitely be in some trouble.

What if Malinowski runs in a different district or retires? Does that increase or decrease Kean's chances of winning?

Actually, speaking of Jack Ciattarrelli, he should be living in the new NJ-7, maybe he'll consider challenging Kean with the publicity and attention (and credibility on the R side) he gained this fall?

[Torie]

Can Kean win in a district that contains Linden and Rahway? They are not Republican-friendly...

And Sherill gets another term because Maplewood and South Orange is added there...

I think given Malinowski's weakness and the fact that it's a good GOP year in 2022, Kean will win. However in 2024 with a presidential election Kean could definitely be in some trouble.

What if Malinowski runs in a different district or retires? Does that increase or decrease Kean's chances of winning?

Actually, speaking of Jack Ciattarrelli, he should be living in the new NJ-7, maybe he'll consider challenging Kean with the publicity and attention (and credibility on the R side) he gained this fall?

He already said he's running for Gov again in 4 years so I don't think so.