2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: New Jersey

[lfromnj]

Kim is in South Jersey and not sure how you can exactly cut him fully as NJ04 and NJ02 don't have that much to spare. Gottheimer would likely just win an outer Bergen seat anyway.

[BoiseBoy]

I saw this image posted by a user on Twitter. I am not sure if it's legitimate but if it is, this will be the final map:

[If my soul was made of stone]

I've been playing around with a different configuration for the VRA seats in Northeast NJ in a fair map (so not taking incumbent preferences, machine politics, etc. into account).

Here's an updated version of this concept, with the current census numbers.

NJ-10 is actually majority Black by CVAP (barely)!

This is an excellent configuration of the VRA seats, though I have some gripes with how you organized things elsewhere.

In response, here's my latest (and only decent thus far) attempt at a fair map, with municipal splits avoided as much as possible:



I'll freely admit that the county splits not done for VRA reasons are a bit of a mess, though.

Interested in your critiques!

I suspect we have some sort of zone of disagreement on how exactly to handle central Jersey (with corresponding rotations to the south).

Sorry for the slow response, have been busy.

I have Strong Opinions on South Jersey and the Shore given my personal associations with those areas. My main objection to your configuration is the split of Atlantic County, which in my view is best paired wholesale with similarly racially-polarized Cumberland and Salem, grouping its most minority-heavy areas with the bulk of heavily white Ocean. Ocean is a very convenient size to keep whole, though some might consider it a bit of an R pack, as evidently the commission for the 2010s map did. I see Monmouth as a more logical split given the divide between the shore and parts inland which can be paired with Ocean, although my configuration requires some of it being paired with Mercer and Burlington (less than ideal) simply because there's nowhere else left to put it. I prefer keeping Camden whole as well, though here it ends up with those weird "wings" cutting into both Burlington and Gloucester, which are admittedly a bit more divided internally.

The outer parts of Bergen and Passaic I see as having more in common with the exurban northwest, which tourism boards want you to call the "Skylands", than the rest of those counties, especially since your configuration requires gratuitous splits of Somerset. In the Hudson seat I included Palisades Park instead of Secaucus to boost the Asian % a bit, since it's frustrating how close-but-not-quite a proper Asian influence seat is between Mercer and Middlesex is to being possible, but that's highly subjective.

None of your choices are glaringly offensive to me, though. My experience, again, is heavily biased towards South Jersey, so I may be granting it undue attention.

Is there a chance NJ Dems choose to cut a different Democrat, like Kim or Gottheimer, or is it defiintely going to be Malinowski?

Gottheimer and Kim both live in solid Dem turf, while Malinowski lives in Hunterdon County. There's absolutely no reason why they'd cut anyone else.

[lfromnj]

I saw this image posted by a user on Twitter. I am not sure if it's legitimate but if it is, this will be the final map:

link the  tweeet.

[BoiseBoy]

I saw this image posted by a user on Twitter. I am not sure if it's legitimate but if it is, this will be the final map:

link the  tweeet.

Updated my post with a link.

[lfromnj]

How do you even find that user lmao.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/MattFriedmanNJ/status/1473040883532636167

rumor has it that Norcross wants a super safe district(both South Jersey Dems are from Camden county)

[CookieDamage]

Highly doubt that's even remotely legit. But we'll see.

[Roll Roons]

Highly doubt that's even remotely legit. But we'll see.

Almost certainly not. The account has 17 followers and was just created this month.

[Brittain33]

Drawing Andy Kim and Chris Smith together and putting Tom Kean Jr. in the 12th? I have my doubts.

[kwabbit]

NJ Twitter/Maybe Actual Map

The map looks more realistic only because it's in a GIS program instead of DRA. I doubt it's the actual map given that they are still in negotations, but I put it into DRA to see the partisanship.

Northwest Sink is Trump +10.1. Van Drew's seat is Trump +8.9. All the other Dems get safe seats.

[Sol]

Here's a version of New Jersey which tries to do an Asian (aka Indian) influence district in the Middlesex County area, while taking into account Discovolante's critiques:



Sorry about the 3rd district, but I think most other things work well? Prioritized city and township integrity over counties--the only splits are Newark, which is inevitable, and Neptune. It might make more sense to give Warren to the 3rd than the pieces of Somerset.

Tbh, this exercise has persuaded me that drawing an Indian influence district in Middlesex is a waste of time. Even when drawing the 6th district explicitly to maximize Asian percentage, I was only able to get it to 1/3rd VAP--and probably a lot less in terms of CVAP. The community is too diffuse--there are a lot of places which are like 20-40% Asian but nowhere where the community predominates to outweigh other groups. Maybe next census.

[If my soul was made of stone]

Here's a version of New Jersey which tries to do an Asian (aka Indian) influence district in the Middlesex County area, while taking into account Discovolante's critiques:



Sorry about the 3rd district, but I think most other things work well? Prioritized city and township integrity over counties--the only splits are Newark, which is inevitable, and Neptune. It might make more sense to give Warren to the 3rd than the pieces of Somerset.

Tbh, this exercise has persuaded me that drawing an Indian influence district in Middlesex is a waste of time. Even when drawing the 6th district explicitly to maximize Asian percentage, I was only able to get it to 1/3rd VAP--and probably a lot less in terms of CVAP. The community is too diffuse--there are a lot of places which are like 20-40% Asian but nowhere where the community predominates to outweigh other groups. Maybe next census.

My own efforts at this configuration were rather fruitless. The population simply is too concentrated in smaller areas separated by vast nothings to be coherent as a community or capable of sustaining a district.

Besides that, I would again keep Atlantic whole by instead having the Camden seat take in more of inner Gloucester–also placing the Burlington split more along the Delaware–and focus the Monmouth split on inland townships rather than the shore (though some of both may be needed for population equality).

[Brittain33]

NJ Twitter/Maybe Actual Map

The map looks more realistic only because it's in a GIS program instead of DRA. I doubt it's the actual map given that they are still in negotations, but I put it into DRA to see the partisanship.

Northwest Sink is Trump +10.1. Van Drew's seat is Trump +8.9. All the other Dems get safe seats.

I mean, if they were drawing a compromise map and didn’t care about Chris Smith, it makes a lot of sense. This is the correct compromise to draw. Perhaps Smith has decided to retire. With Roe v. Wade about to be overturned, he’s completed his work.

[Tekken_Guy]

NJ Twitter/Maybe Actual Map

The map looks more realistic only because it's in a GIS program instead of DRA. I doubt it's the actual map given that they are still in negotations, but I put it into DRA to see the partisanship.

Northwest Sink is Trump +10.1. Van Drew's seat is Trump +8.9. All the other Dems get safe seats.

How likely is it that the NW sink won’t go into Westfield?

[sting in the rafters]

10/1/1 map.

2.0

Cleaned up the splits, whipped up the Jersey s---y City district into majority Hispanic despite the best efforts of Hoboken.

NJ Twitter/Maybe Actual Map

The map looks more realistic only because it's in a GIS program instead of DRA. I doubt it's the actual map given that they are still in negotations, but I put it into DRA to see the partisanship.

Northwest Sink is Trump +10.1. Van Drew's seat is Trump +8.9. All the other Dems get safe seats.

I mean, if they were drawing a compromise map and didn’t care about Chris Smith, it makes a lot of sense. This is the correct compromise to draw. Perhaps Smith has decided to retire. With Roe v. Wade about to be overturned, he’s completed his work.

Yeah this is 9/3 at best for Ds. Any D-leaning mander has to crack South Jersey at this point by putting the upscale suburbs around Camden with the Pines. Do not let the proximity to BosWash fool you, The Pines have more than their fair share of downscale whites that the GOP has engaged in the Trump era. Retirees are only gonna keep moving down there and anecdotally Millville/Vineland is the underground drag racing capital of the Mid Atlantic. Its a matter of time before the AC E-Way corridor votes more similarly to the shore-towns of Delmarva than Long Island, which in turn means JVD winning by double digits if Delaware Bay/Pineys are kept together.

[Tekken_Guy]

Drawing Andy Kim and Chris Smith together and putting Tom Kean Jr. in the 12th? I have my doubts.

Kean’s in the 11th actually. It’s Biden+20.

[Roll Roons]

Update on the proposals: https://newjerseyglobe.com/campaigns/we-have-the-democratic-and-republican-congressional-maps-heres-whats-being-proposed/

Looks like Malinowski is screwed and Kean is going to Congress no matter what.

[Brittain33]

https://twitter.com/redistrict/status/1473662224237531138?s=21

[😥]

Malinowski should primary Gottheimer now

[Roll Roons]

I wonder if Ciattarelli won the new NJ-03, NJ-05 or NJ-11.

[Mr.Phips]

I wonder if Ciattarelli won the new NJ-03, NJ-05 or NJ-11.

I’m thinking Dems likely drew the districts so he didn’t. 

[Nyvin]

If they actually draw Van Drew a safe R district then Republicans should be REALLY happy.

[Brittain33]

Malinowski should primary Gottheimer now

Gottheimer has an 8-figure campaign account, sadly.

[Brittain33]

It's past 10:30. Still no map?

(checks web site) No, there's no live feed going yet.