Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Hopping back into the election for a moment, what are the areas of the state to watch come election night?

My political knowledge of VA is largely limited to NoVA = Democratic, not-NoVA = Republican. 

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1453852175046783029

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These look more updated than the data a VA poster shared some 15 pages or so back when I asked if anyone had benchmarks to look for.

I didn't want to go and manually transcribe all of his numbers into percentages, but here are some samples for rough %s that Youngkin would need to hit for a win:

I took some random rural counties as well as some of the "key counties / cities to watch"

Albemarle:  37%
Amerherst: 72%
Augusta:    77%
Bedford:    78%
Brunswick: 48%
Campbell: 77%
Chesapeake: 51%
Chesterfield: 51%
Culpepper: 65%
Frederick: 69%
Hampton: 32%
Henrico: 40%
James City: 52%
Lynchburg: 55%
Montgomery: 51%
Newport News: 38%
Norfolk: 32%
Pittsylvania: 74%
Prince William: 42%
Richmond City: 20%
Roanoke County: 66%
Spotsylvania: 59%
Stafford: 54%
Virginia Beach: 52%
York: 58%

For Hampton Roads cities I think it's realistically more like:
Virginia Beach:  53% of two party vote
Chesapeake: 52%
Suffolk: 46%
Newport News: 36%
Hampton: 30%
Portsmouth: 30%
Norfolk: 28%

Chesapeake & VB are more elastic than the others.  If Youngkin is getting more than 30% in Norfolk he's most likely winning by a comfortable margin statewide.

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/zhizhierbuzhier/status/1454871929190588417?s=20

[Horus]

If McAuliffe loses it will hopefully signal to Dems that they have to move left on bread and butter issues and dump the Bush lovers before they take over and finish the NOVAfication of the party. McAuliffe is an awful, elitist candidate running a terrible campaign on yesterday's issues. It is time to excise the Clinton holdouts and neocons from power before it's too late.

[Brittain33]

If McAuliffe loses it will hopefully signal to Dems that they have to move left on bread and butter issues and dump the Bush lovers before they take over and finish the NOVAfication of the party. McAuliffe is an awful, elitist candidate running a terrible campaign on yesterday's issues. It is time to excise the Clinton holdouts and neocons from power before it's too late.

If McAuliffe loses, I feel it means that Democrats get a majority in states like Va by winning over some affluent suburbanites who will dump them at the first opportunity, and there's nothing to be done but maximize returns knowing that happens.

[Roll Roons]

If Youngkin wins, I don't think it means that Virginia is becoming a purple state in federal elections again. Candidates can and do win governorships in states that are otherwise hostile to their party.

It'll be similar to Maryland in 2014, where Hogan won because of a favorable national environment, a strong campaign on his part and a lazy campaign by his opponent.

[It’s so Joever]

If Youngkin wins, I don't think it means that Virginia is becoming a purple state in federal elections again. Candidates can and do win governorships in states that are otherwise hostile to their party.

Okay Larry Hogan, you can reveal yourself now.

[Horus]

If Youngkin wins, I don't think it means that Virginia is becoming a purple state in federal elections again. Candidates can and do win governorships in states that are otherwise hostile to their party.

Virginia will still vote Dem in 2024 unless it's a landslide. But with how D it was trending and how amazing a governor McAuliffe supposedly was, it shouldn't even be particularly close. But he's had several gaffes, he isn't that charismatic, people are tired of COVID fear mongering and he represents yesterday's worldview.

Was this guy really the best VA Dems could muster?

[kwabbit]

If Youngkin wins, I don't think it means that Virginia is becoming a purple state in federal elections again. Candidates can and do win governorships in states that are otherwise hostile to their party.

It'll be similar to Maryland in 2014, where Hogan won because of a favorable national environment, a strong campaign on his part and a lazy campaign by his opponent.

No doubt VA is a blue state, but it would not be surprising if it held even, maybe trended a little right in 2024. The state is growing but the demographic changes aren’t as rapid or significant enough like the Atlanta metro’s exploding Black population that can make massive shifts happen purely on a demographic nature. A lot of VA’s shift is persuasion in Hampton Roads/Richmond metro/ NOVA, so those voters are hypothetically winnable for the GOP, although there’s not going to be reversion to 2012 or anything. I think the GOP could hit 2016 numbers there perhaps.

[CookieDamage]

Way too many conclusions are being drawn about this race on both sides.

[neostassenite31]

If Youngkin wins, I don't think it means that Virginia is becoming a purple state in federal elections again. Candidates can and do win governorships in states that are otherwise hostile to their party.

It'll be similar to Maryland in 2014, where Hogan won because of a favorable national environment, a strong campaign on his part and a lazy campaign by his opponent.

A key feature of Republicans gubernatorial candidates winning in safe blue states or Democratic ones winning in safe red states is that the result of the gubernatorial contest is usually a clear exception among the statewide and legislature races that cycle. All of the other statewide elections and state legislative contests are usually still landslide-level blowouts for the dominant party (see MA or MD in 2018, LA or KY in 2019).

Right now, the polls are suggesting that the Lt. Gov and AG races in VA are also very close, and control of the general assembly is essentially a tossup. These are not signs that VA has become a safe blue state.

[CookieDamage]

https://twitter.com/DCtraveljunkie/status/1454818433732861955?s=20

Analyzing the outliers in the county is a great way to draw shaky conclusions.

[jamestroll]

If Youngkin wins, I don't think it means that Virginia is becoming a purple state in federal elections again. Candidates can and do win governorships in states that are otherwise hostile to their party.

It'll be similar to Maryland in 2014, where Hogan won because of a favorable national environment, a strong campaign on his part and a lazy campaign by his opponent.

A key feature of Republicans gubernatorial candidates winning in safe blue states or Democratic ones winning in safe red states is that the result of the gubernatorial contest is usually a clear exception among the statewide and legislature races that cycle. All of the other statewide elections and state legislative contests are usually still landslide-level blowouts for the dominant party (see MA or MD in 2018, LA or KY in 2019).

Right now, the polls are suggesting that the Lt. Gov and AG races in VA are also very close, and control of the general assembly is essentially a tossup. These are not signs that VA has become a safe blue state.

I have brought that up as well but I am inclined to doubt that Virginia would become a safe GOP either ..

But it wouldn't look good for Democrats if there is a GOP sweep in VA in 2021, 2022 and 2023.. and it may bring the GOP to contest the state in 2024.

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/ChazNuttycombe/status/1454890983741698049?s=20

[neostassenite31]

If Youngkin wins, I don't think it means that Virginia is becoming a purple state in federal elections again. Candidates can and do win governorships in states that are otherwise hostile to their party.

It'll be similar to Maryland in 2014, where Hogan won because of a favorable national environment, a strong campaign on his part and a lazy campaign by his opponent.

A key feature of Republicans gubernatorial candidates winning in safe blue states or Democratic ones winning in safe red states is that the result of the gubernatorial contest is usually a clear exception among the statewide and legislature races that cycle. All of the other statewide elections and state legislative contests are usually still landslide-level blowouts for the dominant party (see MA or MD in 2018, LA or KY in 2019).

Right now, the polls are suggesting that the Lt. Gov and AG races in VA are also very close, and control of the general assembly is essentially a tossup. These are not signs that VA has become a safe blue state.

I have brought that up as well but I am inclined to doubt that Virginia would become a safe GOP either ..

But it wouldn't look good for Democrats if there is a GOP sweep in VA in 2021, 2022 and 2023.. and it may bring the GOP to contest the state in 2024.

Regardless of who wins this race, VA will remain a blue-leaning state with the potential to move into the safe column in the next few cycles. Any competent GOP presidential campaign in 2024 will not seriously consider contesting VA regardless of what happens on Tuesday. If they're essentially tied in VA, then the presidential election is already a blowout and there would be no point

[wbrocks67]

Interested to see what the exit polls show on Tuesday.

Biden's national approval still seems to be about -7 on average among RV, which would suggest he's likely close to even in VA. However, more recent polls like Fox and Wapo have suggested his approval is about -7 (45/53, 46/53) right now in VA.

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/tencor_7144/status/1454896508793413636?s=20

[SnowLabrador]

Youngkin +3 sounds about right, but it could even be Youngkin +5. Dems are really asleep at the wheel here.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Does the Princess from the Liberation Party play any significant role in the upcoming election?
And if she wins, will she become the Queen of the Commonwealth of Virginia?

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Why does the majority of Altas still thinks that that ex-governor still has a chance to win?

[Xing]

Youngkin’s final ad is about raising teacher pay and ending grocery taxes

I come on here and see NSV claim youngkin is the most dangerous gubernatorial candidate in history

It’s beyond laughable

This is incredibly dangerous

Endorsing T-mac

I know this is at least slightly ironic/exaggerated, but how exactly is that dangerous? (CC’ing those who recommended this)

[kwabbit]

Interested to see what the exit polls show on Tuesday.

Biden's national approval still seems to be about -7 on average among RV, which would suggest he's likely close to even in VA. However, more recent polls like Fox and Wapo have suggested his approval is about -7 (45/53, 46/53) right now in VA.

In general it's better to look at high quality state polling than national polling. Extrapolating from the VA polls, you might think Biden is at -12 or so nationally. Biden's approval has been slowly sinking in the 538 tracker, which does not have a high enough volume of quality polling to always exactly reflect the national mood. In contrast, even though there hasn't been a ton of polling for VA, Suffolk, Monmouth, WaPo, Fox, Emerson are a good collection of quality polls in a short time span, and they have Biden around that -7 range as you said, which might be a more precise barometer of Biden's approval than the occasional national poll.

[BigSerg]

Hot take: If Youngking gets a +15-16% lead in Election Day votes, he wins. Trump got +26% in 2020.

[It’s so Joever]

Hot take: If Youngking gets a +15-16% lead in Election Day votes, he wins. Trump got +26% in 2020.

Are you expecting a huge Election Day turnout?

[compucomp]

More excuse-making from McAuliffe, this time blaming Biden for not bringing the progressives in line. This leak could have come from only one place, T-Mac. Is this how a campaign behaves when it is confident in victory?

The former Virginia governor and his top aides, who have been pushing congressional and White House officials to pass the bill for over a month, were both stunned and infuriated, according to Democrats. They were amazed Ms. Pelosi had been forced to delay the vote for the second time in a month, baffled why the president didn’t make a more aggressive push and despairing about the impact of yet another round of negative stories from Washington.

“The last two-and-a-half months makes it look like Democrats are in disarray,” said Representative Filemon Vela, a Texas Democrat who has raised money for Mr. McAuliffe.

[lfromnj]

T-mac should have said regarding school curriculum
"Parents absolutely have control over the curriculum, They have the democratic right to participate in school board elections to shape their child's future "