2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread v2

[ꙮ]

Claudia Tenney receives the president’s “complete and total endorsement” in NY-22.

Little chance she will lose the Republican Primary given Cornwell dropped out, but still notable.

https://www.uticaod.com/news/20200212/trump-endorses-tenneyrsquos-bid-for-congress

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I am not surprised by this, Biden sapped up all the oxygen out the room except for Bernie online donations; consequently,  online donations have haulted due to the presidential race. As long as gas prices are elevated, people arent gonna keep giving. They still havent polled MA primary election and its March 3rd between Markey and Kennedy. Pelosi is begging for more donations

But, Trump is still a weaker Candidate than an Establishment R would be and he is beatable and so is the Leadership in the Senate. People are limiting their candidates who they are donating to

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I am not surprised by this, Biden sapped up all the oxygen out the room except for Bernie online donations; consequently,  online donations have haulted due to the presidential race. As long as gas prices are elevated, people arent gonna keep giving. They still havent polled MA primary election and its March 3rd between Markey and Kennedy. Pelosi is begging for more donations

But, Trump is still a weaker Candidate than an Establishment R would be and he is beatable and so is the Leadership in the Senate. People are limiting their candidates who they are donating to

How the hell did this get 3 recommendations?

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

I am not surprised by this, Biden sapped up all the oxygen out the room except for Bernie online donations; consequently,  online donations have haulted due to the presidential race. As long as gas prices are elevated, people arent gonna keep giving. They still havent polled MA primary election and its March 3rd between Markey and Kennedy. Pelosi is begging for more donations

But, Trump is still a weaker Candidate than an Establishment R would be and he is beatable and so is the Leadership in the Senate. People are limiting their candidates who they are donating to

Do you just enjoying trolling with your takes? You never give any further explanation/reasoning for them.

It's been over a week and I'm still wondering what the hell "Warren's losing support because Castro is enabling her" is supposed to mean.

[Oryxslayer]

I am not surprised by this, Biden sapped up all the oxygen out the room except for Bernie online donations; consequently,  online donations have haulted due to the presidential race. As long as gas prices are elevated, people arent gonna keep giving. They still havent polled MA primary election and its March 3rd between Markey and Kennedy. Pelosi is begging for more donations

But, Trump is still a weaker Candidate than an Establishment R would be and he is beatable and so is the Leadership in the Senate. People are limiting their candidates who they are donating to

Do you just enjoying trolling with your takes? You never give any further explanation/reasoning for them.

It's been over a week and I'm still wondering what the hell "Warren's losing support because Castro is enabling her" is supposed to mean.

I'm surprised there are still people who don't have him ignored. He posts so often and his posts often only tangentially refer to the topic at hand. I have long thought it has to be a bot, but....

[Calthrina950]

I am not surprised by this, Biden sapped up all the oxygen out the room except for Bernie online donations; consequently,  online donations have haulted due to the presidential race. As long as gas prices are elevated, people arent gonna keep giving. They still havent polled MA primary election and its March 3rd between Markey and Kennedy. Pelosi is begging for more donations

But, Trump is still a weaker Candidate than an Establishment R would be and he is beatable and so is the Leadership in the Senate. People are limiting their candidates who they are donating to

Do you just enjoying trolling with your takes? You never give any further explanation/reasoning for them.

It's been over a week and I'm still wondering what the hell "Warren's losing support because Castro is enabling her" is supposed to mean.

I'm surprised there are still people who don't have him ignored. He posts so often and his posts often only tangentially refer to the topic at hand. I have long thought it has to be a bot, but....

And he's been at it for 14 years now, even though it seems like his earliest posts on this website (from c. 2006) were of somewhat better quality than what he posts now.

[morgieb]

I am not surprised by this, Biden sapped up all the oxygen out the room except for Bernie online donations; consequently,  online donations have haulted due to the presidential race. As long as gas prices are elevated, people arent gonna keep giving. They still havent polled MA primary election and its March 3rd between Markey and Kennedy. Pelosi is begging for more donations

But, Trump is still a weaker Candidate than an Establishment R would be and he is beatable and so is the Leadership in the Senate. People are limiting their candidates who they are donating to

How the hell did this get 3 recommendations?

The OC love is basically ironic/having him as their quasi-mascot at this point.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

The GCB in Texas is D+3.

https://static.texastribune.org/media/files/cec848fe193c737af94db49a047028d8/ut-tt-2020-02-summary-1.pdf

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/NYTnickc/status/1228333195214626818

[politicallefty]

The GCB in Texas is D+3.

https://static.texastribune.org/media/files/cec848fe193c737af94db49a047028d8/ut-tt-2020-02-summary-1.pdf

Republicans won the popular vote in Texas in 2018 by 3.4%. A simple uniform swing would easily give Democrats a majority of the Congressional delegation. Even a neutral environment in November could easily see TX-22, TX-23, and TX-24 all go Democratic. At that point, Texas would only be 20R-16D. I think the next three top targets after those, in order, would be TX-21, TX-10, and TX-31.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

The GCB in Texas is D+3.

https://static.texastribune.org/media/files/cec848fe193c737af94db49a047028d8/ut-tt-2020-02-summary-1.pdf

Republicans won the popular vote in Texas in 2018 by 3.4%. A simple uniform swing would easily give Democrats a majority of the Congressional delegation. Even a neutral environment in November could easily see TX-22, TX-23, and TX-24 all go Democratic. At that point, Texas would only be 20R-16D. I think the next three top targets after those, in order, would be TX-21, TX-10, and TX-31.

Just 4 years ago, in 2016 the GCB in Texas was won by Republicans by 18-19%.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

The GCB in Texas is D+3.

https://static.texastribune.org/media/files/cec848fe193c737af94db49a047028d8/ut-tt-2020-02-summary-1.pdf

Republicans won the popular vote in Texas in 2018 by 3.4%. A simple uniform swing would easily give Democrats a majority of the Congressional delegation. Even a neutral environment in November could easily see TX-22, TX-23, and TX-24 all go Democratic. At that point, Texas would only be 20R-16D. I think the next three top targets after those, in order, would be TX-21, TX-10, and TX-31.

Just 4 years ago, in 2016 the GCB in Texas was won by Republicans by 18-19%.

But Texas isn't trending D because the Republicans won that one state special election where only 20% showed up to vote.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://www.reddit.com/r/VoteBlue/comments/f5t7ma/txsen_joaquin_castro_endorses_cristina_tzintz%C3%BAn/?utm_source=ifttt

Castro endorses Latina to run against Cornyn

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

https://twitter.com/NYTnickc/status/1228333195214626818

Winter is coming, and so am I.

[GeorgiaModerate]

State Rep. Kevin Tanner (R-Dawsonville) is running for the GA-09 seat that Doug Collins is vacating to run for Senate.

https://www.dawsonnews.com/local/government/tanner-announces-congressional-bid/

Another for GA-09: Cumming attorney Ethan Underwood.  I've interacted with him a bit on a couple of local zoning issues and he's always seemed like a decent person and willing to listen.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://americanindependent.com/kentucky-voter-registration-record-mitch-mcconnell-2020-election/

New voters are registering in KY to oust Leader McConnell

[Gracile]

Sabato's Crystal Ball made two Senate rating changes today - one in favor of Democrats, one in favor of Republicans:

http://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/sanders-and-the-senate/

Alabama: Lean R > Likely R
Colorado: Tossup > Lean D

[Calthrina950]

Sabato's Crystal Ball made two Senate rating changes today - one in favor of Democrats, one in favor of Republicans:

http://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/sanders-and-the-senate/

Alabama: Lean R > Likely R
Colorado: Tossup > Lean D

Both of their original ratings were unjustified, in my view. Gardner's race has always been at least Lean Democratic (and given the new poll showing him down by low double digits, it could even now be Likely Democratic), and Alabama cannot be, and never should have been, rated as anything other than Safe R. Jones looks set to get at least 40%, but he'll be lucky to do as well as even Heidi Heitkamp did in 2018 at this rate.

[Frenchrepublican]

Sabato's Crystal Ball made two Senate rating changes today - one in favor of Democrats, one in favor of Republicans:

http://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/sanders-and-the-senate/

Alabama: Lean R > Likely R
Colorado: Tossup > Lean D

Not a moment too soon !

[Gracile]

Inside Elections made several House rating changes today:

https://www.insideelections.com/ratings/house/2020-house-ratings-february-21-2020

Toward Democrats
AZ-02: Likely D > Solid D
FL-15: Solid R > Likely R
IL-06: Likely D > Solid D
MI-03: Lean R > Tilt R
MI-08: Lean D > Likely D
MN-02: Likely D > Solid D
NJ-11: Likely D > Solid D
NY-19: Lean D > Likely D
WI-03: Likely D > Solid D

Toward Republicans
CA-25: Solid D > Likely D
FL-26: Solid D > Likely D
KY-06: Likely R > Solid R
MN-08: Likely R > Solid R
NC-09: Lean R > Likely R
TX-31: Lean R > Likely R

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

MI-8 at Likely D seems way too optimistic even for how weak the Republican field is. It’s still a pretty red seat

[Roll Roons]

So at this point it looks like IE considers the following 2018 flips to be Solid D:
AZ-02, CA-49, CO-06, FL-27, IL-06, MN-02, MN-03, NJ-11, PA-05, PA-06, VA-10, WA-08.

Sabato has CA-49, CO-06, FL-27, MN-03, NJ-11, PA-05, PA-06 and VA-10.

[ElectionsGuy]

Inside Elections made several House rating changes today:

https://www.insideelections.com/ratings/house/2020-house-ratings-february-21-2020

Toward Democrats

MI-08: Lean D > Likely D
MN-02: Likely D > Solid D
WI-03: Likely D > Solid D

Really, really dumb.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Crystal Ball will soon make AZ lean D and ME D, the Dems are on their way to a trifecta

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://politicaltribune.org/record-number-of-kentuckians-are-registered-to-vote-ahead-of-election-doesnt-appear-to-look-good-for-mitch-mcconnells-chances-at-re-election/

Record number of KY are registered to vote to vote Leader McConnell, users should be careful about dismissing McGrath