2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread v2

[ElectionsGuy]

ITT Dems getting mad that a Republican-leaning district is only "Likely D" according to one organization. Likely D just implies there's a minimal non-zero chance Republicans can win.

[ElectionsGuy]

I don't go on Twitter much but what is with this trend of Trumpists using checks and x's to get their points across? It looks childish.

[ElectionsGuy]

Roll Call House rating changes:

https://www.rollcall.com/news/campaigns/house-rating-changes-a-dozen-races-shift-toward-democrats

Toward R:

MN-7: Lean D to Tilt D

Toward D:

AZ-6: Solid R to Likely R
CA-25: Likely D to Solid D
IL-6: Lean D to Likely D
IL-13: Tilt R to Tossup
IA-2: Tossup to Tilt D
IA-4: Lean R to Tilt R
MI-8: Tilt D to Lean D
MI-11: Lean D to Likely D
MN-1: Lean R to Tilt R
MN-2: Lean D to Likely D
NH-1: Lean D to Likely D
VA-2: Tilt D to Lean D

Majority of the rating changes I see no reason for, especially the ones in Michigan, Minnesota, and Iowa. They're lagging behind on districts like AZ-06 and IL-06 (no surprise, 2012 coalition bias) and MN-07 (Peterson is at best a toss-up for re-election). But districts that Trump won in the Midwest should not be rated Likely D. They're making the same dumb candidate and fundraising judgments that will skew their ratings towards incumbents and against R-trending districts.

[ElectionsGuy]

Inside Elections made several House rating changes today:

https://www.insideelections.com/ratings/house/2020-house-ratings-february-21-2020

Toward Democrats

MI-08: Lean D > Likely D
MN-02: Likely D > Solid D
WI-03: Likely D > Solid D

Really, really dumb.

[ElectionsGuy]

The DCCC poll was 12 points off in the CA-25 special. Can we please ignore it in the future? It's absurd that Biden would be ahead 11 in NE-02, or that Eastman would be trailing 10 points behind him (their hatred of Eastman knows no bounds).

Cook updated senate ratings, moving Perdue to Lean R from Likely R

https://cookpolitical.com/ratings/senate-race-ratings/

I think you mean the opposite.

[ElectionsGuy]

Cook updated senate ratings, moving Perdue to Lean R from Likely R

https://cookpolitical.com/ratings/senate-race-ratings/

I think you mean the opposite.

Well they had him at Likely R then moved him to Lean R, which is what I stated.
https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/senate/georgia-senate/georgia-senates-perdue-moves-lean-republican

You're right, I read it as if the "from" was before the "to".

[ElectionsGuy]

Generic ballot - Monmouth

LV
Democrat 49%
Republican 45%

RV
Democrat 49%
Republican 43%

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/documents/monmouthpoll_us_091020.pdf/

This is terrifying.

A +3/+4 lead is right around where the House flips. Not even kidding, this is getting way less attention than it needs to get. Before the summer the Democrats often did better in the generic ballot than Biden did in the presidential, now it seems to be the opposite in most polls. I would still bet on the House remaining Democratic of course but these kinds of margins suggest the Democrats will definitely net lose seats, not gain seats like I've seen so many times on this forum. It also suggests some of these Dem internals for CDs are completely out of line with reality, as I've pointed out recently (and people have gotten upset and tried to defend the polling which suggests 10-20 point Dem trends in multiple Republican leaning districts)

[ElectionsGuy]

Generic ballot - Monmouth

LV
Democrat 49%
Republican 45%

RV
Democrat 49%
Republican 43%

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/documents/monmouthpoll_us_091020.pdf/

This is terrifying.

A +3/+4 lead is right around where the House flips. Not even kidding, this is getting way less attention than it needs to get. Before the summer the Democrats often did better in the generic ballot than Biden did in the presidential, now it seems to be the opposite in most polls. I would still bet on the House remaining Democratic of course but these kinds of margins suggest the Democrats will definitely net lose seats, not gain seats like I've seen so many times on this forum. It also suggests some of these Dem internals for CDs are completely out of line with reality, as I've pointed out recently (and people have gotten upset and tried to defend the polling which suggests 10-20 point Dem trends in multiple Republican leaning districts)

Lol the House ain’t flipping if Biden wins.

Right. I didn't say that.

[ElectionsGuy]

Generic ballot - Monmouth

LV
Democrat 49%
Republican 45%

RV
Democrat 49%
Republican 43%

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/documents/monmouthpoll_us_091020.pdf/

This is terrifying.

A +3/+4 lead is right around where the House flips. Not even kidding, this is getting way less attention than it needs to get. Before the summer the Democrats often did better in the generic ballot than Biden did in the presidential, now it seems to be the opposite in most polls. I would still bet on the House remaining Democratic of course but these kinds of margins suggest the Democrats will definitely net lose seats, not gain seats like I've seen so many times on this forum. It also suggests some of these Dem internals for CDs are completely out of line with reality, as I've pointed out recently (and people have gotten upset and tried to defend the polling which suggests 10-20 point Dem trends in multiple Republican leaning districts)

Or maybe it’s just one poll (didn’t you bash Monmouth before because they’re supposedly way too D-friendly/have way too small sample sizes?) and we’d do well to track the average instead (as of today, it’s +6.5 according to FiveThirtyEight and +6.0 according to RealClearPolitics)?

Besides, polling of individual races is more in line with a D+7-9 environment than a +3-4 one, and both parties aren’t exactly behaving like they expect the House to be very competitive. It would take a red wave to narrowly flip the House, especially given how awful Republican recruitment and strategy has been in many of these races, but there’s no reason to believe there will be a red wave this year.

It is one poll, and yes Monmouth does have a slight D bias and small samples. The fact that it's a +4 D lead with Likely voters should be notable. I'm not predicting that's whats going to happen (see the bolded above). I'm pointing out that it's a critical point where the House comes into play, and that tightening has become a trend. But to you, it seems pointing something out is conflated with a prediction, as you recommended a post that was a strawman. This isn't the first time either.

We haven't had very much polling in House races this year, and most of it has been internals for either party. Given that Republicans didn't even realize a lot of races that got no attention were competitive in '16, I don't expect many of them to realize some of their targets this year either. Their party elites are even more out of touch with reality than the Democrats, so it's not surprising. If a D+3 PV is a "red wave" (which is where the house could flip) than I don't know what else to say.

[ElectionsGuy]

Generic ballot - USC/Dornsife

Democrat 49.9% (-0.3)
Republican 45.8% (+0.4)

https://election.usc.edu/

This thread has gotten awfully quiet.

[ElectionsGuy]

Sabato needs to be fired. TX 21 and 22 are long gone
Don Bacon is not winning what is likely to be Biden +11
And don't get me started on MN 01

Sabato does need to be fired, but for different reasons...