Trump approval ratings thread 1.6

[Progressive Pessimist]

It's absolutely beyond my comprehension how around 43% of the electorate can still approve of this moron, after he completely ignored the biggest health crisis in 100+ years, with an economy in shatters and the daily madness and the corruption coming out of this WH. He's most likely going to lose in November anyway, but it's completely ridiculous that many people still approve him. His approvals should be at least in W 2008 territory. At least.

I hear you. It is maddeningly frustrating. But it shows you that partisanship is a sickness in its own way. Thats why I feel the need to be a broken record on here about Trump's calamitous "response" to COVID-19. His horrendous "performance" should mean a loss by default. There's going to be 200,000 dead Americans by mid-September, and the blame for that can be laid right at Trump's feet. There's no end in sight to either this virus or the immense death and economic disruption it has caused here -- and frankly, almost ONLY here. His candidacy should be basically beyond saving. To say otherwise, to tsk-tsk and say there's still almost three months left, a lot could change, hey look at this month's job figures, etc., just feels like conventional wisdom BS to me, like missing the forest fire for the trees. But sadly, partisanship in this country means he's unlikely to fall much further in popularity, so he'll likely always have a shot at winning in the EC at the very least.

That's Trump and his uncompromised stranglehold on 90%+ of his party for you.

[pbrower2a]

PPP state polls, all done Aug. 13-14 among registered voters.  No presidential matchups.


Iowa (N=729):

Approve 48
Disapprove 49

Greenfield 48, Ernst 45


Georgia (N=530):

Approve 46
Disapprove 49

Ossoff 44, Perdue 44


Maine (N=571):

Approve 41
Disapprove 55

Giden 49, Collins 44

With these numbers, Maine is out of reach for Trump. 55% disapproval will not go away. Trump will be lucky to not be crushed by a margin at least in the high single digits in Maine. If you are wondering about ME-02... it probably goes for Biden.

Clinton '16 + MI + PA + ME-02 + NE-02 is the narrowest win for Biden. Trump looks to have a better chance in Georgia than in Iowa, which is counter-intuitive . Politics today do not resemble those of the 1970's.

...................

Below is a Democratic insider poll for Louisiana. Trump wins Louisiana (but by an unusually small number) for a Republican since 2000.  It uses "positive" and "negative" instead of "approve" and "disapprove" or "favorable" and "unfavorable". We get few polls of Louisiana, so beggars can't be choosers. If you dislike this poll, then wait for another. Note that I have a poll showing Trump disapproval in Arkansas at 50%, and that poll is by a conservative college for a business journal. Southern Arkansas and northern Louisiana are rather similar.

The 2020 political climate in Louisiana is not nearly as pro-Trump as it was in the
2016 campaign. While Trump is leading Biden, the Trump margin (43% Biden / 50%
Trump) is more muted than the 2016 Trump margin of +19 over Hillary Clinton. And
Trump’s job rating is roughly at parity (50% Positive / 47% Negative), with a 2-point
margin giving Trump a negative rating for the job he’s done “responding to the
Coronavirus outbreak” (48% Positive / 50% Negative). Comparatively, Democratic
Governor John Bel Edwards is earning a 63% overall positive job rating and a 65%
positive rating for his handling of the outbreak.

https://mcusercontent.com/70dd8d69ff6d12f740d3fd646/files/e706bc9c-0729-4ed4-82e9-36bd9c49862b/LA_SEN_POLL_MEMO_AUG_2020_081820_FINAL.01.pdf

https://www.wmur.com/article/poll-trump-still-under-water-trailing-biden-in-nh-while-sununu-job-approval-strong/33659633

Biden - 51%
Trump - 43%

Trump approval: 43/57

Biden Favorability: 49/50

Conducted by Saint Anselm College.

Basically New Hampshire is about where it was for Obama/Biden at the time of the 2008 election... except that this poll is from the middle of August. Maine is typically slightly more D than New Hampshire. An 8% lead may not seem as crushing as a 10% lead, but at this stage, an 8% lead is usually beyond the point of no return.

Seat-of-the-pants handicapping for the Presidency:

AZ Biden 70 Trump 30
FL Biden 70 Trump 30
GA Biden 70 Trump 30
IA Biden 55 Trump 45
ME Biden 99+ Trump 1 or less
MI Biden 99+ Trump  1 or less
MN Biden 99+ Trump  1 or less
NH Biden 99+ Trump  1 or less
NC Biden 60 Trump 40
OH Biden 70 Trump 30
PA Biden 99+ Trump  1 or less
TX Biden 60 Trump 40
WI Biden 99+ Trump  1 or less


AK Trump 60 Biden 40
KS Trump 65 Biden 35
KY Trump 65 Biden 35
LA  Trump 80 Biden 20
MO Trump 70 Biden 30
MT Trump 70 Biden 30
SC Trump 60 Biden 40
UT Trump 95 other alternatives 5

California? How many 9's after the decimal point?

This is the first time in a long time in which I give Biden a stronger chance in Iowa than Trump. It is not an approval poll, but I can't imagine Trump having a positive approval rating with this Iowa split.

Trump approval 55% or higher
Trump approval 50-54%
Trump approval positive but under 50%
ties are in white
Trump approval negative but disapproval under 50%
Trump disapproval 50-54%
Trump disapproval 55% or higher

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

No one should assume anything in a VBM election.  Biden can win a landslide to a narrow Trump victory, that's why MN is tied

[pbrower2a]

What we cannot count on is Donald Trump refraining from dirty tricks and using those successfully. We cannot count out weird events.

Of course, Hillary Clinton started with a large lead and ended up losing the states that mattered.  Since then demographics have practically assured Donald Trump of losing those key states. The younger voters are at least 20% more D than R, and as they supplant voters over 55 who die off or become senile who are about 5% more R than D... at a rate of replacement of voters at even 1.5% per year, that means that Trump will be lucky to end up with 1.5% less of the vote on an even swing against him for that reason alone.

If you think that he can get re-elected despite 170 thousand deaths (and counting) from COVID-19 due to his bungled response to the plague, then I have land to sell you at 35 north latitude, 160 west latitude.  Well, at least the climate should be perfect!     

[GeorgiaModerate]

Echelon Insights, Aug. 14-18, 1000 LV (1-month change)

Approve 40 (+3)
Disapprove 58 (-2)

Biden 53 (nc)
Trump 39 (+1)

With third parties, it's Biden 51, Trump 38, Jorgensen 2, Hawkins 1, West 1.

GCB: D 49, R 40

[pbrower2a]

Echelon Insights, Aug. 14-18, 1000 LV (1-month change)

Approve 40 (+3)
Disapprove 58 (-2)

Biden 53 (nc)
Trump 39 (+1)

With third parties, it's Biden 51, Trump 38, Jorgensen 2, Hawkins 1, West 1.

GCB: D 49, R 40

Reagan versus Carter 1980. Jorgenson, Hawkins, and West together are about where Anderson was in 1980. 

[solidcoalition]

It's absolutely beyond my comprehension how around 43% of the electorate can still approve of this moron, after he completely ignored the biggest health crisis in 100+ years, with an economy in shatters and the daily madness and the corruption coming out of this WH. He's most likely going to lose in November anyway, but it's completely ridiculous that many people still approve him. His approvals should be at least in W 2008 territory. At least.

Yeah he’s Atleast twice as high as George Bush during his worst.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

What we cannot count on is Donald Trump refraining from dirty tricks and using those successfully. We cannot count out weird events.

Of course, Hillary Clinton started with a large lead and ended up losing the states that mattered.  Since then demographics have practically assured Donald Trump of losing those key states. The younger voters are at least 20% more D than R, and as they supplant voters over 55 who die off or become senile who are about 5% more R than D... at a rate of replacement of voters at even 1.5% per year, that means that Trump will be lucky to end up with 1.5% less of the vote on an even swing against him for that reason alone.

If you think that he can get re-elected despite 170 thousand deaths (and counting) from COVID-19 due to his bungled response to the plague, then I have land to sell you at 35 north latitude, 160 west latitude.  Well, at least the climate should be perfect!      

If you personally think Biden is gonna win by 500 EC and Larry Sabato and 538 and Cook has it 268 to 291 be my guest, Obama and Bill Clinton didnt even win that in landslide yrs in 7.5 PVIs, only Bush Sr did. The max Biden will win is 334, but can win AZ and win 291 to 247, underestimate Trump at your will

Like this approval rating shows, Biden isnt

[GeorgiaModerate]

ARG economic survey (monthly), Aug. 17-20, 1100 adults including 995 RV

Adults:

Approve 38 (+2)
Disapprove 59 (-1)

RV:

Approve 38 (+2)
Disapprove 59 (-1)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

There is something about pollsters that OH, FL, TX mist swing with Ds if they win the election, no they dont have to win it, Biden can win the 278 map plus AZ, GA, IA, KS and NC which is Biden plus 6 and 334

Which is the way our Senate elections are going

[GeorgiaModerate]

Civiqs, Aug. 13-17, RV


Michigan (N=631):

Approve 42
Disapprove 55

Biden 49, Trump 46


Ohio (N=631):

Approve 47
Disapprove 50

Biden 47, Trump 47


Pennsylvania (N=617):

Approve 41
Disapprove 55

Biden 51, Trump 44


Wisconsin (N=754):

Approve 41
Disapprove 55

Biden 51, Trump 45

[Person Man]

Civiqs, Aug. 13-17, RV


Michigan (N=631):

Approve 42
Disapprove 55

Biden 49, Trump 46


Ohio (N=631):

Approve 47
Disapprove 50

Biden 47, Trump 47


Pennsylvania (N=617):

Approve 41
Disapprove 55

Biden 51, Trump 44


Wisconsin (N=754):

Approve 41
Disapprove 55

Biden 51, Trump 45

Trump is then PROBABLY at about 40% nationally, give or take 2%.

[pbrower2a]

The Michigan results could be evidence that Trump's ad campaigns have been counter-productive.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

In 1996, Bill Clinton beat Bob Dole by 9 pts and Trump is losing by 9, that  year KY went D for Prez, it is now possible that Mitch McConnell can indeed lose his seat, as well as Cornyn and Graham.  A filibuster majority is possible

[pbrower2a]

Civiqs, Aug. 13-17, RV


Michigan (N=631):

Approve 42
Disapprove 55

Biden 49, Trump 46


Ohio (N=631):

Approve 47
Disapprove 50

Biden 47, Trump 47


Pennsylvania (N=617):

Approve 41
Disapprove 55

Biden 51, Trump 44


Wisconsin (N=754):

Approve 41
Disapprove 55

Biden 51, Trump 45

Trump is then PROBABLY at about 40% nationally, give or take 2%.

He was at 46% nationwide in 2016. 39% is the historical floor for incumbent Presidents (Hoover, Carter) when there isn't a third-party nominee taking votes out of the center (the elder Bush in a true three-way race).   

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Its interesting to see that not 1 R has posted any poll numbers of Rassy in the last week or 2, Trump is done

[emailking]

How can you be simultaneously confident that it is only a 278 (sometimes 279) race, and also that Trump will lose?

[GeorgiaModerate]

AP/NORC, Aug. 17-19, 1075 adults (1-month change)

Approve 35 (-3)
Disapprove 65 (+4)

Strongly approve 18 (-6)
Strongly disapprove 46 (-4)

This has always been a bad pollster for Trump, but the above results are close to his worst; the only lower ones were two 32/67 polls in late 2017.  ETA: There was also a 34/65 in Jan. 2019.

[Person Man]

AP/NORC, Aug. 17-19, 1075 adults (1-month change)

Approve 35 (-3)
Disapprove 65 (+4)

Strongly approve 18 (-6)
Strongly disapprove 46 (-4)

This has always been a bad pollster for Trump, but the above results are close to his worst; the only lower ones were two 32/67 polls in late 2017.  ETA: There was also a 34/65 in Jan. 2019.

Cold enough to snow. People are struggling and unhappy.

[pbrower2a]

AP/NORC, Aug. 17-19, 1075 adults (1-month change)

Approve 35 (-3)
Disapprove 65 (+4)

Strongly approve 18 (-6)
Strongly disapprove 46 (-4)

This has always been a bad pollster for Trump, but the above results are close to his worst; the only lower ones were two 32/67 polls in late 2017.  ETA: There was also a 34/65 in Jan. 2019.

Outlier... and in view of the historical minimum of 39% of voters voting for the incumbent President in a two-way race (39%, Hoover in 1932) it probably overstates disapproval. Still, even as an outlier this shows Presidential failure on an epic scale even if one tries to average it with other polls. Trump will win his core support, but will he win anything else?

He won in 2020 by soiling American politics so much that millions came to think of political participation  (as in voting) a disgraceful act. His MAGA-bots loved his message, and they still will in 2020. Democrats need simply get out the vote.  

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1297917378861334532

[pbrower2a]

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1297917378861334532

The only good news that the Trump campaign can derive from the AP/NORC poll is that "strong disapproval" is still under 50%. Even so that will make canvassing difficult. Canvassers for Trump may end up visiting only obvious Trump supporters, which will not be enough. With Obama one could expect either a quick rebuff or a polite, if time-consuming rejection.

46% strong disapproval means that a Trump canvasser has a high chance of hearing an F-bomb -- or worse, getting shaken with logical reasons for giving up. A Trump canvasser will get polite treatment from me -- but also some carefully-polished arguments about his vileness as a person and his bungled response to COVID-19.

... it's off topic, but I saw a really-dumb Trump supporter, as I surmised through a bumper-sticker. The one saying "OUR GOVERNOR IS AN IDIOT" (the Governor is Gretchen Whitmer, who faced an early and hard assault by COVID-19 upon Michigan and responded firmly... I understand even if I disagree, as Michigan has slid from having the fourth-worst body count from for COVID-19 among the states to having the ninth-highest, so Michigan has done some things right that Florida and Texas did not do right.

On the other side of the bumper was one involving guns. Gun-lovers are and will be a key constituency for Trump... but while

"DID YOU HUG YOUR ASSAULT RIFLE TODAY?"

...which is an unusual expression of support for guns. But still, it is understandable among gun nuts. But under that weird expression of sentiment toward guns is the snide-swipe

"I did!"

No, I do not have an assault rifle. A creature that can go from being a docile pet to a ferocious defender much like a bear or Big Cat is an adequate defense. I have nothing worth the risk of a dog attack. Except for good behavior, a dog is a bear or Big Cat.

But even more -- if I did have an assault rifle, I certainly would not want a complete stranger hugging it! Before one got to the rifle which I would keep under lock and key (as a burglar) the dog bear would probably deliver some nasty scratches and bites that would need prompt, effective medical treatment... Burglars are meat.   

Even a wimpy-looking cocker spaniel can deliver some bites and scratches that mandate hospital treatment. That cocker spaniel looks much like a bear in its proportions.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trafalgar was right, although their MN poll has 3 pt House effect, it's a 269 to 279 EC map. Today's NC Cardinal poll shows that the internet polls are the ones showing Bias.  The Heritage that hasTrump tied in WI is right too. Sabato Crystal Ball says he is keeping his ratings at 268, until a mnth before the election,  due to flux polls.

Trump can still win on contesting irregularities in VBM

LA isnt even close, it shows 54 to 38 lead for Trump

[woodley park]

How can you be simultaneously confident that it is only a 278 (sometimes 279) race, and also that Trump will lose?

olawakandi oscillates between a Biden blowout, a narrow Biden win, and a narrow Trump win, approximately every 14 minutes.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

How can you be simultaneously confident that it is only a 278 (sometimes 279) race, and also that Trump will lose?

olawakandi oscillates between a Biden blowout, a narrow Biden win, and a narrow Trump win, approximately every 14 minutes.

The maps we have are mock predictions,  not real voting, as far as my predictions are concerned. These aren't real voting. But, the media drummed up Harris like she was the best Veep candidate out there. She is an average politician.

The R polls are going by in person voting and D polls are going by VBM and we dont know which one is correct,  we will find out in 75 days

3rd, Larry Sabato crystal ball, www.electionprojection.com and Cook are very cautious about rating changes. Our maps are based on polls, their maps are based on ratings

4th, who gets the record of overprescribing,  not I, but Solid. He still has never changed, since getting AZ Gov wrong in 2018