Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If McAuliffe wins it will be a result of having a proven track record as governor already and the state's further increasing liberal bent.

If Youngkin wins it will be a result of a depressed Democratic turnout in DC area and a very strong Republican turnout in places like Chesterfield and Virginia Beach. Also, it will have also been a result of Youngkin doing better than expected in the debates and being able to tie McAuliffe to Biden somehow.

Attacking a president who's not underwater isn't going to help very much. Also, GE debates change nobody's mind.

Military issues would definitely be more effective as a national issue than a state one, even in vet-heavy Virginia.

Biden's approvals are already in the toilet.

Lol the NPVi in 2020 was 50/45 he is exactly where it was 49/48%, much better than Trump and it's not even 2022 yet

[Lognog]

If McAuliffe wins it will be a result of having a proven track record as governor already and the state's further increasing liberal bent.

If Youngkin wins it will be a result of a depressed Democratic turnout in DC area and a very strong Republican turnout in places like Chesterfield and Virginia Beach. Also, it will have also been a result of Youngkin doing better than expected in the debates and being able to tie McAuliffe to Biden somehow.

Attacking a president who's not underwater isn't going to help very much. Also, GE debates change nobody's mind.

Military issues would definitely be more effective as a national issue than a state one, even in vet-heavy Virginia.

Biden's approvals are already in the toilet.

it's 50% higher than Trump after his first month in office

[jamestroll]

I'm afraid if Youngkin is elected he will send the entire virignia national guard and all active duty military in the state over to Afghanistan to keep the war going

[Unconditional Surrender Truman]

I'm afraid if Youngkin is elected he will send the entire virignia national guard and all active duty military in the state over to Afghanistan to keep the war going

The governor of Virginia cannot invade a sovereign nation.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I'm afraid if Youngkin is elected he will send the entire virignia national guard and all active duty military in the state over to Afghanistan to keep the war going

That's ridiculous, but I do think that we could see the GOP advocate for getting involved with Afghanistan again just out of spite for Biden and for finally having something they think they can use against him. That's a real out-of-touch risk though because most Americans still support the withdrawal, they probably just didn't like seeing it. Americans don't even vote on foreign policy anymore anyway, especially once it leaves their consciousness, so I dare the Republicans to go through with getting involved with the quagmire again.

[Girlytree]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/kristol-endorse-mcauliffe-virginia-governor/2021/08/23/c142c500-042b-11ec-8c3f-3526f81b233b_story.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=wp_local-virginia-politics

Neocon cringe

[PSOL]

https://mobile.twitter.com/PrinBlandingVA

I know who the People’s candidate is.

[MT Treasurer]

Predictably (and even uploaded on the same day):

https://youtu.be/Fh_5lK_uP5M

https://youtu.be/YZgstTIarEM

These culture-war issues (not far-fetched to count COVID among them at this point) will hold more sway / impact base turnout more than Biden's decision to withdraw from Afghanistan.

[jamestroll]

Predictably (and even uploaded on the same day):

https://youtu.be/Fh_5lK_uP5M

https://youtu.be/YZgstTIarEM

These culture-war issues (not far-fetched to count COVID among them at this point) will hold more sway / impact base turnout more than Biden's decision to withdraw from Afghanistan.

It's unlikely to happen.. but if the gop sweeps all three statewide races and flips the house of delegates do you think the GOP would contest the state in 2024?

Right now I expect the two downballot offices to be generic d vs r so they may run a bit ahead of tmac. But that could change.

[Non Swing Voter]

Predictably (and even uploaded on the same day):

https://youtu.be/Fh_5lK_uP5M

https://youtu.be/YZgstTIarEM

These culture-war issues (not far-fetched to count COVID among them at this point) will hold more sway / impact base turnout more than Biden's decision to withdraw from Afghanistan.

It's unlikely to happen.. but if the gop sweeps all three statewide races and flips the house of delegates do you think the GOP would contest the state in 2024?

Right now I expect the two downballot offices to be generic d vs r so they may run a bit ahead of tmac. But that could change.

You're asking someone who thinks Arlington is in Fairfax county.  Are you that desperate for a horserace?

[Devils30]

Are some exaggerating the idea Dems need +6% to win the House of Delegates? Biden won 52 districts by 10% or more. Yes this map was a GOP gerrymander but the coalition it was drawn for is completely broken.

[Skill and Chance]

Are some exaggerating the idea Dems need +6% to win the House of Delegates? Biden won 52 districts by 10% or more. Yes this map was a GOP gerrymander but the coalition it was drawn for is completely broken.

I agree.  It’s pretty easy to see them falling to exactly 51 (one of the Biden +10 districts has a longtime R incumbent with significant moderate cred), but very hard to see them losing the majority unless they are also losing all the statewide races.

[jamestroll]

Are some exaggerating the idea Dems need +6% to win the House of Delegates? Biden won 52 districts by 10% or more. Yes this map was a GOP gerrymander but the coalition it was drawn for is completely broken.

I agree.  It’s pretty easy to see them falling to exactly 51 (one of the Biden +10 districts has a longtime R incumbent with significant moderate cred), but very hard to see them losing the majority unless they are also losing all the statewide races.

Yes, I looked at each HOD race and it looks like getting below 51, let alone 50 for Democrats would be very difficult.

I agree with Chaz Nuttycombe that Ayala and Herring will run a bit ahead of Tmac as well.

I am wondering if the all-Nova ticket may help Democrats this cycle. Democrats need every nova vote and keep as many romney-clinton supporters as  possible this cycle.

[Duke of York]

https://virginia.gop/virginia-gop-files-lawsuit-seeking-mcauliffe-disqualification/

Virginia GOP is suing to exclude Terry McAuliffe from the ballot for governor because he allegedly didn't sign his statement of candidacy.

This is almost certainly going to be dismissed.

[Non Swing Voter]

https://virginia.gop/virginia-gop-files-lawsuit-seeking-mcauliffe-disqualification/

Virginia GOP is suing to exclude Terry McAuliffe from the ballot for governor because he allegedly didn't sign his statement of candidacy.

This is almost certainly going to be dismissed.

That's what confident parties with a strong candidate at the top of the ticket do.

[Skill and Chance]

https://virginia.gop/virginia-gop-files-lawsuit-seeking-mcauliffe-disqualification/

Virginia GOP is suing to exclude Terry McAuliffe from the ballot for governor because he allegedly didn't sign his statement of candidacy.

This is almost certainly going to be dismissed.

That's what confident parties with a strong candidate at the top of the ticket do.

Is this a serious risk for McAuliffe?  How does this compare to the Nick Freitas 2019 case where he ended up having to run as a write-in?

[Oryxslayer]

https://virginia.gop/virginia-gop-files-lawsuit-seeking-mcauliffe-disqualification/

Virginia GOP is suing to exclude Terry McAuliffe from the ballot for governor because he allegedly didn't sign his statement of candidacy.

This is almost certainly going to be dismissed.

That's what confident parties with a strong candidate at the top of the ticket do.

Is this a serious risk for McAuliffe?  How does this compare to the Nick Freitas 2019 case where he ended up having to run as a write-in?

Freitas did not submit his paperwork at all. TMac forgot a line on the form. This isn't that uncommon of an occurrence, there were 3 cases I recall from recent legislative elections where candidates improperly filled out a form. Freitas was the only recent candidate who lost his case because his position was comparatively unique, extreme, and there was nothing there to argue for wiggle room.

[Skill and Chance]

https://virginia.gop/virginia-gop-files-lawsuit-seeking-mcauliffe-disqualification/

Virginia GOP is suing to exclude Terry McAuliffe from the ballot for governor because he allegedly didn't sign his statement of candidacy.

This is almost certainly going to be dismissed.

That's what confident parties with a strong candidate at the top of the ticket do.

Is this a serious risk for McAuliffe?  How does this compare to the Nick Freitas 2019 case where he ended up having to run as a write-in?

Freitas did not submit his paperwork at all. TMac forgot a line on the form. This isn't that uncommon of an occurrence, there were 3 cases I recall from recent legislative elections where candidates improperly filled out a form. Freitas was the only recent candidate who lost his case because his position was comparatively unique, extreme, and there was nothing there to argue for wiggle room.

OK, that's a pretty dramatic difference then.  Apparently the state board also voted to allow a whole bunch of people to file late after the deadline last year, so I'm assuming this isn't going anywhere. 

[Panhandle Progressive]

https://virginia.gop/virginia-gop-files-lawsuit-seeking-mcauliffe-disqualification/

Virginia GOP is suing to exclude Terry McAuliffe from the ballot for governor because he allegedly didn't sign his statement of candidacy.

This is almost certainly going to be dismissed.

That's what confident parties with a strong candidate at the top of the ticket do.

Is this a serious risk for McAuliffe?

Nope. Republicans have almost zero chance of this going anywhere. The primary results are already official per the Virginia Board of Elections. No judge would overturn THE RESULTS of a COMPLETED PRIMARY, due to a missing signature. Virginia Republicans are grasping at straws.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/DrewSav/status/1430974061316804621

[jamestroll]

I will stop reading predictit and Twitter comments on this election. They are asinine.

No, Afghanistan will not doom mcauliffe. It certainly will not help him but Youngkin isn't exactly a military guy and a governor of Virginia has no impact or say in foreign policy.

Plus, many of the people who would switch from dems to the gop over this were a very tenous Democratic base anyway and were always going to vote for Trumpkin.

McCain and romney were more hawkish than Obama and they both lost the state.

[Non Swing Voter]

https://virginia.gop/virginia-gop-files-lawsuit-seeking-mcauliffe-disqualification/

Virginia GOP is suing to exclude Terry McAuliffe from the ballot for governor because he allegedly didn't sign his statement of candidacy.

This is almost certainly going to be dismissed.

That's what confident parties with a strong candidate at the top of the ticket do.

Is this a serious risk for McAuliffe?  How does this compare to the Nick Freitas 2019 case where he ended up having to run as a write-in?

Freitas did not submit his paperwork at all. TMac forgot a line on the form. This isn't that uncommon of an occurrence, there were 3 cases I recall from recent legislative elections where candidates improperly filled out a form. Freitas was the only recent candidate who lost his case because his position was comparatively unique, extreme, and there was nothing there to argue for wiggle room.

OK, that's a pretty dramatic difference then.  Apparently the state board also voted to allow a whole bunch of people to file late after the deadline last year, so I'm assuming this isn't going anywhere. 

Nope it doesn't and it tells me that the GOP has been polling the hell out of Virginia and not making any headway.  For all this talk about Biden's approvals and this and that, the reality is that certain demographics are going to vote a certain way as long as they turn out and that's not good news for Youngkin in a state like Virginia.

[Non Swing Voter]

I will stop reading predictit and Twitter comments on this election. They are asinine.

No, Afghanistan will not doom mcauliffe. It certainly will not help him but Youngkin isn't exactly a military guy and a governor of Virginia has no impact or say in foreign policy.

Plus, many of the people who would switch from dems to the gop over this were a very tenous Democratic base anyway and were always going to vote for Trumpkin.

McCain and romney were more hawkish than Obama and they both lost the state.

Of course.  The only conceivable voters the GOP could pull over are rich Fairfax county voters who are fiscally conservative but socially liberal.  Therefore it made sense to nominate a Northern Virginia businessman like Youngkin.  The problem was that he has no personality and a very unlikable face.  So he can't even get his own voters motivated.  To do so he's already started with the ANTIFA and BLM/pro-cop veiled racist ads.  This might drum up his base where he needs it to be but it's going to doom him in NOVA.  The other problem is that Terry isn't a socialist so it's going to be harder to extract those NOVA voters from him. 

[jamestroll]

I will stop reading predictit and Twitter comments on this election. They are asinine.

No, Afghanistan will not doom mcauliffe. It certainly will not help him but Youngkin isn't exactly a military guy and a governor of Virginia has no impact or say in foreign policy.

Plus, many of the people who would switch from dems to the gop over this were a very tenous Democratic base anyway and were always going to vote for Trumpkin.

McCain and romney were more hawkish than Obama and they both lost the state.

Of course.  The only conceivable voters the GOP could pull over are rich Fairfax county voters who are fiscally conservative but socially liberal.  Therefore it made sense to nominate a Northern Virginia businessman like Youngkin.  The problem was that he has no personality and a very unlikable face.  So he can't even get his own voters motivated.  To do so he's already started with the ANTIFA and BLM/pro-cop veiled racist ads.  This might drum up his base where he needs it to be but it's going to doom him in NOVA.  The other problem is that Terry isn't a socialist so it's going to be harder to extract those NOVA voters from him. 

Terry is a perfect left of center on fiscal issues. Literally the perfect balance. It is hard to attack him on fiscal issues.

[jamestroll]

Everyone should be prepared this November when Youngkin supporters retaliate after they lose.

All signs are pointing to a violent coup attempt in Richmond.