PA-SEN 2024 megathread

[wbrocks67]

I am shocked to find out that McCormick is kind of a crook!

https://twitter.com/maddymcdaniel14/status/1717526657160839327

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

He has been behind by 7 in a 303 map scenario I expect him to win Casey 51/47 like Fetterman

[Pheurton Skeurto]

Why didn't Dr. Oz think of -checks notes- breaking the law?!

Or, well, I guess not breaking the law if it's a loophole, so...good job, Dave?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

No one is def Bob Casey, Tester, Brown, Gallegos, Rosen, Heinrich, Slotkin and Baldwin. The reason why Brown will win no DeWine on ballot

[MT Treasurer]

NRSC/GOP groups seem downright obsessed with this race from a quick look at their Twitter. I get that defining Casey early is important, but I can’t believe they’re prioritizing this over NV and have released more ads on Casey than Tester/Brown.

[ProgressiveModerate]

NRSC/GOP groups seem downright obsessed with this race from a quick look at their Twitter. I get that defining Casey early is important, but I can’t believe they’re prioritizing this over NV and have released more ads on Casey than Tester/Brown.

Yeah, I don't exactly understand it. Maybe it's a recency bias thing; they held an R Senate seat in PA as recently as 2022 whereas in NV or MI they haven't in quite a while.

Another factor could be they believe McCormick would be able to finance a large part of this race on his won so they see it as a better investment.

Finally, they could just have internal data that convincingly suggests PA is a better R pickup opportunity, and that could be due to Rs being poised to make gains in PA and/or Dems are just in a good position in NV.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

NRSC/GOP groups seem downright obsessed with this race from a quick look at their Twitter. I get that defining Casey early is important, but I can’t believe they’re prioritizing this over NV and have released more ads on Casey than Tester/Brown.

Yeah, I don't exactly understand it. Maybe it's a recency bias thing; they held an R Senate seat in PA as recently as 2022 whereas in NV or MI they haven't in quite a while.

Another factor could be they believe McCormick would be able to finance a large part of this race on his won so they see it as a better investment.

Finally, they could just have internal data that convincingly suggests PA is a better R pickup opportunity, and that could be due to Rs being poised to make gains in PA and/or Dems are just in a good position in NV.

Stop trying to think of actual logical reasons.
The reason is obvious.
Establishment Republicans adore McCormick. He's a billionaire anti-Trump donor who hates the poor and is an elitist who wants the GOP to back to the old days.
That's why they're obsessed with him. They would probably prefer McCormick to win and Democrats hold the Senate, than Lake to win and Republicans take the Senate.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

NRSC/GOP groups seem downright obsessed with this race from a quick look at their Twitter. I get that defining Casey early is important, but I can’t believe they’re prioritizing this over NV and have released more ads on Casey than Tester/Brown.

Yeah, I don't exactly understand it. Maybe it's a recency bias thing; they held an R Senate seat in PA as recently as 2022 whereas in NV or MI they haven't in quite a while.

Another factor could be they believe McCormick would be able to finance a large part of this race on his won so they see it as a better investment.

Finally, they could just have internal data that convincingly suggests PA is a better R pickup opportunity, and that could be due to Rs being poised to make gains in PA and/or Dems are just in a good position in NV.

Stop trying to think of actual logical reasons.
The reason is obvious.
Establishment Republicans adore McCormick. He's a billionaire anti-Trump donor who hates the poor and is an elitist who wants the GOP to back to the old days.
That's why they're obsessed with him. They would probably prefer McCormick to win and Democrats hold the Senate, than Lake to win and Republicans take the Senate.

Agree with most of this but spending money on AZ Senate really is a waste. I just don't see a path to victory for Lake at this point. I honestly think it's possible McCormick is actually more likely to win than her

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

NRSC/GOP groups seem downright obsessed with this race from a quick look at their Twitter. I get that defining Casey early is important, but I can’t believe they’re prioritizing this over NV and have released more ads on Casey than Tester/Brown.

Yeah, I don't exactly understand it. Maybe it's a recency bias thing; they held an R Senate seat in PA as recently as 2022 whereas in NV or MI they haven't in quite a while.

Another factor could be they believe McCormick would be able to finance a large part of this race on his won so they see it as a better investment.

Finally, they could just have internal data that convincingly suggests PA is a better R pickup opportunity, and that could be due to Rs being poised to make gains in PA and/or Dems are just in a good position in NV.

Stop trying to think of actual logical reasons.
The reason is obvious.
Establishment Republicans adore McCormick. He's a billionaire anti-Trump donor who hates the poor and is an elitist who wants the GOP to back to the old days.
That's why they're obsessed with him. They would probably prefer McCormick to win and Democrats hold the Senate, than Lake to win and Republicans take the Senate.

Agree with most of this but spending money on AZ Senate really is a waste. I just don't see a path to victory for Lake at this point. I honestly think it's possible McCormick is actually more likely to win than her

I don't think Lake is a particularly good candidate, however I think McCormick is way worse.
Also Bob Casey is indisputably a much stronger Democrat than Ruben Gallego.

And again my point wasn't comparing the likelihood of winning of the races, it's that McConnell and co. would unironically prefer losing the Senate while McCormick wins, than winning the Senate while Lake wins.
Same reason McConnell refused to lift a finger for Masters, he simply didn't want anyone against him to win. After all he spent millions in Alaska to defeat a more conservative Republican, despite if that money went to Nevada Republicans might have controlled the Senate.

[wbrocks67]

The problem here for the GOP is that even outside of the Casey name and history, Casey is quite possibly the least controversial person that could ever be in this seat. You can't brand him as an extremist or radical left or any of the usual GOP shenanigans. He is as 'vanilla' as it comes, but for PA, that's exactly where you want to be. I think that's why the only attack that they're even attempting at this point is "Casey has gotten nothing done!" but voters also don't follow the daily goings on of senators votes compared to what, for example, the Governor is getting done, so even that line doesn't really work

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

The problem here for the GOP is that even outside of the Casey name and history, Casey is quite possibly the least controversial person that could ever be in this seat. You can't brand him as an extremist or radical left or any of the usual GOP shenanigans. He is as 'vanilla' as it comes, but for PA, that's exactly where you want to be. I think that's why the only attack that they're even attempting at this point is "Casey has gotten nothing done!" but voters also don't follow the daily goings on of senators votes compared to what, for example, the Governor is getting done, so even that line doesn't really work

But you can brand him as someone who has been there too long/isn't as "moderate" as he "once was"/time to end the Casey dynasty etc. Not saying McCormick is the guy to do it but I still think this is much more viable than WI or even AZ at this point

[Splash]

https://twitter.com/PADems/status/1720067220049420442

[wbrocks67]

The problem here for the GOP is that even outside of the Casey name and history, Casey is quite possibly the least controversial person that could ever be in this seat. You can't brand him as an extremist or radical left or any of the usual GOP shenanigans. He is as 'vanilla' as it comes, but for PA, that's exactly where you want to be. I think that's why the only attack that they're even attempting at this point is "Casey has gotten nothing done!" but voters also don't follow the daily goings on of senators votes compared to what, for example, the Governor is getting done, so even that line doesn't really work

But you can brand him as someone who has been there too long/isn't as "moderate" as he "once was"/time to end the Casey dynasty etc. Not saying McCormick is the guy to do it but I still think this is much more viable than WI or even AZ at this point

Eh, not really. Casey isn't that old, so I don't really think the "he's been here too long" attacks work either, especially since he/his family are an institution in the state. He's not 80. Also, he has basically moved along with the Democratic Party in a way that doesn't make him too far left, even as he moved left. He's still pretty much at the sweet spot of the center left of where the majority of the party, especially in PA, is. It's not viable.

[Pheurton Skeurto]

https://twitter.com/PADems/status/1720067220049420442

This is disqualifying. Bar this man from running for office in PA immediately.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

So cringey. I'm feeling pretty good about my prediction of him being a worse candidate than Dr Oz.

[President Johnson]

McCormick seems to be a hot mess, I have no idea why people thought last year he'd be so much stronger than Dr. Oz. He would have lost by a similar margin.

However, it seems like the Republican bench in the state is extremely thin, with most of the representatives being bland and too far right for the state as a whole, other than Fitzpatrick. And he isn't going to win a statewide Republican primary.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

NRSC/GOP groups seem downright obsessed with this race from a quick look at their Twitter. I get that defining Casey early is important, but I can’t believe they’re prioritizing this over NV and have released more ads on Casey than Tester/Brown.

Plus Casey has been in the Senate for 17 years, he's already well defined in the eyes of voters. Rosen is much newer and presents a better opportunity for them to chip away at a vulnerable incumbent's image.

[Pheurton Skeurto]

Meanwhile, Bob Casey actually gives a sh*t about helping people in Pennsylvania:

https://twitter.com/MorePerfectUS/status/1720101533768159524?s=20

[wbrocks67]

McCormick seems to be a hot mess, I have no idea why people thought last year he'd be so much stronger than Dr. Oz. He would have lost by a similar margin.

However, it seems like the Republican bench in the state is extremely thin, with most of the representatives being bland and too far right for the state as a whole, other than Fitzpatrick. And he isn't going to win a statewide Republican primary.

He's lucky Trump is on the ballot, because now, given his numerous gaffes in just a few weeks, I think he may have performed just as badly as Oz in 2022. He has the same issues as Oz - he does nothing to actually appeal to moderates and is simultaneously so out of touch with the MAGA/Trump/rural voters.

[wbrocks67]

Given the results of this week, if Carolyn Carluccio was easily painted as anti-abortion when McCormick literally has *video footage* of him on record being anti-abortion, this could go even worse for him now. He'll be helped by Trump on the ballot, but I can't imagine it will be enough now.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Given the results of this week, if Carolyn Carluccio was easily painted as anti-abortion when McCormick literally has *video footage* of him on record being anti-abortion, this could go even worse for him now. He'll be helped by Trump on the ballot, but I can't imagine it will be enough now.

Casey will probably win by 5 points imo

[Sir Mohamed]

Given the results of this week, if Carolyn Carluccio was easily painted as anti-abortion when McCormick literally has *video footage* of him on record being anti-abortion, this could go even worse for him now. He'll be helped by Trump on the ballot, but I can't imagine it will be enough now.

Casey will probably win by 5 points imo

Sounds realistic. That's probably enough for Biden to carry the state as well, by around 2-3 pts. There will be some ticket splitting, but I fail to see how it's Shapiro/Fetterman levels.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Given the results of this week, if Carolyn Carluccio was easily painted as anti-abortion when McCormick literally has *video footage* of him on record being anti-abortion, this could go even worse for him now. He'll be helped by Trump on the ballot, but I can't imagine it will be enough now.

Casey will probably win by 5 points imo

Sounds realistic. That's probably enough for Biden to carry the state as well, by around 2-3 pts. There will be some ticket splitting, but I fail to see how it's Shapiro/Fetterman levels.

The current polls show Trump +3 and Casey +7 on average.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Given the results of this week, if Carolyn Carluccio was easily painted as anti-abortion when McCormick literally has *video footage* of him on record being anti-abortion, this could go even worse for him now. He'll be helped by Trump on the ballot, but I can't imagine it will be enough now.

Casey will probably win by 5 points imo

Sounds realistic. That's probably enough for Biden to carry the state as well, by around 2-3 pts. There will be some ticket splitting, but I fail to see how it's Shapiro/Fetterman levels.

The current polls show Trump +3 and Casey +7 on average.

Lol Biden isn't losing PA if Casey wins forget it Shapiro has a 60 fav

[wbrocks67]

Commonwealth Foundation (R) has Casey fav at 48/36, pretty similar to what we've seen in most other polls.

https://www.commonwealthfoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/Common-Ground-Q4-2023-Toplines.pdf