Summer Lee vs. Bhavini Patel

[kyc0705]

It's also worth remembering that Bush has another problem that could really hurt her, completely separate from ideological squabbles in the party.

Which is?

She has been under federal investigation since January.

[ملكة كرينجيتوك]

If it doesn’t work in Pittsburgh, their most demographically favorable district, it’s not going to work so AIPAC need to stop targeting women of color with contentious primaries when they are on the losing end of this issue. Summer Lee has condemned Hamas. She has condemned anti-semitism on college campuses. People in her district were smart enough to see the plain truth that criticizing Israel is not anti-semitism, and neither is asking for high moral standards from “the only democracy in the Middle East.” If they go out of their way to make this the central issue in Bush and Bowman’s races, let alone Tlaib’s and Omar’s, AIPAC will guarantee an intact Squad in November.

I mean it was an incumbent Squad WOC vs a non-incumbent WOC primary.

I’m committed to advancing progressive issues like advocating for gun violence prevention, fighting for reproductive justice, and creating good-paying union jobs.

[wnwnwn]

If it doesn’t work in Pittsburgh, their most demographically favorable district, it’s not going to work so AIPAC need to stop targeting women of color with contentious primaries when they are on the losing end of this issue. Summer Lee has condemned Hamas. She has condemned anti-semitism on college campuses. People in her district were smart enough to see the plain truth that criticizing Israel is not anti-semitism, and neither is asking for high moral standards from “the only democracy in the Middle East.” If they go out of their way to make this the central issue in Bush and Bowman’s races, let alone Tlaib’s and Omar’s, AIPAC will guarantee an intact Squad in November.

I mean it was an incumbent Squad WOC vs a non-incumbent WOC primary.

I’m committed to advancing progressive issues like advocating for gun violence prevention, fighting for reproductive justice, and creating good-paying union jobs.

Do you think a white union man would had been a better candidate? I suppose a candidate like that could had it easier to get support from anti Squad donors, but it´s not like Patel wasn´t clearly the choice for democrat moderates in this primary.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

If it doesn’t work in Pittsburgh, their most demographically favorable district, it’s not going to work so AIPAC need to stop targeting women of color with contentious primaries when they are on the losing end of this issue. Summer Lee has condemned Hamas. She has condemned anti-semitism on college campuses. People in her district were smart enough to see the plain truth that criticizing Israel is not anti-semitism, and neither is asking for high moral standards from “the only democracy in the Middle East.” If they go out of their way to make this the central issue in Bush and Bowman’s races, let alone Tlaib’s and Omar’s, AIPAC will guarantee an intact Squad in November.

I mean it was an incumbent Squad WOC vs a non-incumbent WOC primary.

I’m committed to advancing progressive issues like advocating for gun violence prevention, fighting for reproductive justice, and creating good-paying union jobs.

Do you think a white union man would had been a better candidate? I suppose a candidate like that could had it easier to get support from anti Squad donors, but it´s not like Patel wasn´t clearly the choice for democrat moderates in this primary.

We're seeing how that's playing out in AOC's district - she's running against a conservadem named Marty Dolan who's getting zero traction.

It's very hard to knock off an incumbent and if it happens twice this year, it's because of unusual circumstances - both Latimer and Bell might have higher name recognition in the districts than the sitting Reps. 

[coloradocowboi]

It's also worth remembering that Bush has another problem that could really hurt her, completely separate from ideological squabbles in the party.

Which is?

She has been under federal investigation since January.

Oh yeah I forgot about that. She’s actually flying under the radar for that in national media. I would hope her opponent is blowing up the airwaves and social media about it back in stl

I mean it was an incumbent Squad WOC vs a non-incumbent WOC primary.

I’m committed to advancing progressive issues like advocating for gun violence prevention, fighting for reproductive justice, and creating good-paying union jobs.

I don’t actually believe that. They were targeted because they criticized Israel, duh.

But it’s the same kind of fallacious reasoning that permits their critics to call them antisemitic so I say f it, gotta get realpolitik. Especially in districts where the average voter is going to feel a lot more strongly about racism than they do Israel, and perhaps even to the extent that they connect these two issues together. While I am ambivalent about it, this kind of thinking is more common than you think.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

It's also worth remembering that Bush has another problem that could really hurt her, completely separate from ideological squabbles in the party.

Which is?

She has been under federal investigation since January.

Oh yeah I forgot about that. She’s actually flying under the radar for that in national media. I would hope her opponent is blowing up the airwaves and social media about it back in stl

I mean it was an incumbent Squad WOC vs a non-incumbent WOC primary.

I’m committed to advancing progressive issues like advocating for gun violence prevention, fighting for reproductive justice, and creating good-paying union jobs.

I don’t actually believe that. They were targeted because they criticized Israel, duh.

But it’s the same kind of fallacious reasoning that permits their critics to call them antisemitic so I say f it, gotta get realpolitik. Especially in districts where the average voter is going to feel a lot more strongly about racism than they do Israel, and perhaps even to the extent that they connect these two issues together. While I am ambivalent about it, this kind of thinking is more common than you think.

I think Lee was targeted this cycle for being anti-Israel.  I can only speak for myself, but I am glad Lee did much better than I expected.  AFAIK, she’s genuinely just anti-Israel and conflating that with someone like Tlaib or Bush would be a very bad thing indeed.  

I think Bowman and especially Bush are being targeted for numerous reasons.  Being anti-Israel is certainly one reason, but I don’t think Bush’s situation would be any different if the I/P conflict never existed.  She’s a poor fundraiser and fluke Congresswoman who neglects constituent service, is utterly despised by much of the Democratic Party (and the feeling is basically mutual), and is pretty unpopular with AA voters despite being in a AA majority-minority district.  She’s been the target of a DoJ criminal investigation for months regarding crimes that are very easy to explain to low-information voters.  

As for her opponents, the main one (Wesley Bell) is an extremely popular AA County Prosecutor with high local name recognition, who is a far better fundraiser, smart enough to make the race a referendum on Bush, and uniquely well-positioned to simultaneously maintain solid pro-criminal justice reform and anti-crime credentials with the primary electorate in this district.  Then you have a former state legislator running who is basically a random nutjob with a small-ish yet very devoted personal following in the area who was basically grown in a lab to compete with Bush for exactly the type of person who should be the core of Bush’s base.  Yes, AIPAC got involved because “muh Israel,” but I really don’t think they’re that big a factor here except *maybe* at the margins by inflating the already significant fundraising gap.

In Bowman’s district, I think his anti-Israel views definitively played a bigger role than in MO-1, but I also don’t think it’s as big as the narrative suggests.  Remember, Bowman was long regarded as one of the more reasonable members of the Squad (to the point that I was even rooting for him to beat Engel in the primary when he first ran for Congress and hadn’t really had an issue with him until this year, although the fire alarm thing was admittedly dumb).  Still, Bowman was inflicting more and more  unforced errors and death by a thousand cuts screw ups/gaffes upon himself.

George Latimer is arguably a political force of nature in Westchester County and he was clearly recruited by national and state Democrats alike to run for Congress.  And yet it is equally clear from the campaign he waged that he was intending to run against Mondaire Jones and Mike Lawler post-redistricting and wanted to build a strong campaign machine and fundraising warchest rather than waiting until it was too late in the game.  The NY Assembly shocked a lot of people - including more than a few insiders (especially ones tied more to national Democratic politics than NY State politics, even the State Senate seems to have been caught at least somewhat by surprise) by doing a limited change map that only strengthened LaLota and Souzzi while weakening Williams.  

This left Latimer with a choice to make: did he still want to run for Congress if the path was now primarying Bowman?  He decided that he did.  From then on, it was clear Latimer was in the driver’s seat although Bowman probably won’t be humiliated by a blowout margin for various reasons.  That said, one cannot deny that I/P has worked in Latimer’s favor here.  At a minimum, Latimer has benefited from campaign contributions from groups like DMfI and AIPAC (although I think it would be pretty inaccurate to attribute his lead to that, the man is very popular and has plenty of experience with highly competitive races, plus Bowman isn’t exactly beloved in general).  

As Bowman has started to see the writing on the wall, he’s been getting more and more desperate.  His latest tactic has been to say absurd things about the Gaza conflict (ex: claiming that Hamas didn’t rape anyone on 10/7 and that any claims to the contrary were “propaganda” before quickly backpedaling after heavy criticism).  I think Bowman has decided his only hope is to attempt to turn the primary into a referendum on Gaza and hope for the best.  However, I don’t think he’s nearly a talented enough politician to pull it off in a district that isn’t exactly the most fertile ground for such a strategy.  As a result, he’s kinda flailing around in an increasingly desperate manner and embarrassing himself.  I think Latimer wins here because he’s a much stronger candidate than Bowman, a better fit for the district, and b/c Bowman is both not ready for prime time and generally running a pretty poor campaign (the dude simply cannot stay out of his own way).

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I would have been shocked if Lee was primaried.

[coloradocowboi]

I agree with the Chancellor's very educated and well-thought post. However, I do want to add two addenda lol:

1. Bush, Omar, Bowman, and AOC are all being primaried for allegedly myriad reasons ranging from police to economics... however, a lot of the money being funneled to their opponents is either by AIPAC's greater network or sympathetic donors. If they didn't take a stand on Israel, my guess is that they would not be danger. Pulling fire alarms for literally no reason not withstanding... hahaha

2. While I was being glib earlier, it's alarming to me and obviously problematic that all of the Reps being primaried are Black, Latino, or Middle Eastern and while their opponents are mostly other POC, the people funding for and voting for their opponents are disproportionately white.

The optics of this are less troubling to this forum because let's face it, most of us are white and even among those who aren't, very few in this forum are Black, Latino, or Middle Eastern. We are seeing things through the privileged myopia that is being white, and can't conceive of the optics and emotions that come with seeing a mostly white establishment try to tear down a woman of color. Just because I don't think it is intentionally racist or white supremacist does not mean that I don't think it is both of these in effect. And if I think this way, I can't imagine what the optics must be for people of color.

I'm not saying that Bush and Bowman will for sure win. But if their races become about Gaza, there is a high chance their races will become about race, and that really benefits them... especially Bowman. Their opponents are playing with fire, but I also get the catch-22. If they don't play with fire, they don't get to play at all because that's the only way to maintain a financial edge. But I dk y'all.... gun to my head I would say all but Bush win. And only cuz I forgot her scandal. Bowman's fortune depends entirely on who turns out to vote.

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

I agree with the Chancellor's very educated and well-thought post. However, I do want to add two addenda lol:

1. Bush, Omar, Bowman, and AOC are all being primaried for allegedly myriad reasons ranging from police to economics... however, a lot of the money being funneled to their opponents is either by AIPAC's greater network or sympathetic donors. If they didn't take a stand on Israel, my guess is that they would not be danger. Pulling fire alarms for literally no reason not withstanding... hahaha

2. While I was being glib earlier, it's alarming to me and obviously problematic that all of the Reps being primaried are Black, Latino, or Middle Eastern and while their opponents are mostly other POC, the people funding for and voting for their opponents are disproportionately white.

The optics of this are less troubling to this forum because let's face it, most of us are white and even among those who aren't, very few in this forum are Black, Latino, or Middle Eastern. We are seeing things through the privileged myopia that is being white, and can't conceive of the optics and emotions that come with seeing a mostly white establishment try to tear down a woman of color. Just because I don't think it is intentionally racist or white supremacist does not mean that I don't think it is both of these in effect. And if I think this way, I can't imagine what the optics must be for people of color.

I'm not saying that Bush and Bowman will for sure win. But if their races become about Gaza, there is a high chance their races will become about race, and that really benefits them... especially Bowman. Their opponents are playing with fire, but I also get the catch-22. If they don't play with fire, they don't get to play at all because that's the only way to maintain a financial edge. But I dk y'all.... gun to my head I would say all but Bush win. And only cuz I forgot her scandal. Bowman's fortune depends entirely on who turns out to vote.

Don't forget though that the only reason Bush is in office in the first place is due to white progressives. In 2020 she lost the Black vote to Clay.

[coloradocowboi]

Don't forget though that the only reason Bush is in office in the first place is due to white progressives. In 2020 she lost the Black vote to Clay.

I guess... she massively improved with Black voters from 2018 to 2020 to 2022 though in each successive primary.

If this race wasn't being nationalized, I think she would probably be guaranteed to lose. Wesley Bell isn't even a moderate or corporatist. He's a mainstream Dem. I've been learning a lot more about him and of course other leftists will hate his law enforcement background and positions, but I think this guy is actually a potentially more effective agent for progress than Cori anyway.

But since we are talking about them, the white progressive are even less likely to be motivated by Gaza issues to vote out Bush. I still maintain that in each of these remaining races, Israel is probably more a liability for moderates than it is a benefit.