PA-SEN 2024 megathread

[Sir Mohamed]

Congrats on re-election, Sen. Casey!

https://twitter.com/dabbs346/status/1597254240321568769

Good news for Casey. I never thought McCormick was much stronger than Oz. He's just a rich hedgefund manager, which is easy to portray as out of touch elitist.

[Sir Mohamed]

Certainly very telling of the state of the PA GOP when McCormick - another Oz millionaire who has spent many years outside of PA before flying right back in - is their best shot.

He's only their best shot in terms of winning a primary though. I think a Brian Fitzpatrick would be a formidable candidate, though he's not winning a statewide primary. Dude isn't insane enough.

[Sir Mohamed]

Yall are just wishcasting if you think someone who lost by 14 points is going to be able to convince GOP voters that he can beat Bob Casey who while overrated imo, is clearly stronger than generic D. He's not winning the primary again.
 With that being said, Rs are going to have to find someone better than McCormick. He has no shot of actually winning this race

You are completely ignoring the fact that the PA GOP electorate is batsh*t insane. They knew who Mastriano was when he ran for Governor too. He won the primary because he's crazy, not in spite of it.

But there was no definitive proof that he was a bad candidate. Now we know that he lost in a neutralish environment by more than twice as Donald Trump lost by. All McCormick has to say is "He's not Electable hurt durr"

How many times have GOP primary voters demonstrate the fact they don't give a s--- when it comes "electability". They just don't care and want candidates that are insane. The PA GOP especially has gone off the rails. It's basically the Northeastern version of the AZ GOP, which might nominate the other crazy gov loser from 2022.

[Sir Mohamed]

If it's Mastrino vs. McCormick, I'm predicting a clean Mastriano primary win. But it would move the race from Lean D to Safe D.

[Sir Mohamed]

If Mastriano chooses to run, he has the entire MAGA lane open to him.

https://twitter.com/hollyotterbein/status/1636026700793348097

If they unite behind McCormick they are absolute buffoons. Bartos or DeFoor would be 10× better

McCormick literally has all of Oz's flaws, but dumbass GOP donors/operatives's only lesson from the midterms was "if anyone did poorly it was cause they weren't anto-Trump enough".
A carpetbagger out-of-touch hedge fund manager billionaire who outsources jobs to China, is socially liberal and economically aligns with Paul Ryan may be the perfect candidate for Mitch McConnell, but who does he appeal to?
Like seriously who actually likes this guy? He has no charisma and already has tens of millions of dollars of attack ads spent on him.
For goodness sake democrats will run that clip of Trump calling him a "pro-China globalist totally controlled by Mitch McConnell and Wall Street" at that really last year EVERY DAY. That will catastrophically destroy turnout for him, and you know Trump won't campaign for someone who said he deserved to be impeached.

David McCormick is just the Republican Kyrsten Sinema. It's that simple.

Well all of that and too - if they're thinking is also oh McCormick is more of a "moderate white guy" type figure (even though he's not moderate, but more moderate than say Barnette or Mastriano), then.... PA already has that in Casey lol

But can't McCormick easily be painted as out of touch hedgefund dude? I never bought in 2022 that he was a much better candidate than Oz.

[Sir Mohamed]

Still nothing from Mastriano. I'm 50/50 on whether he'll actually do it, but now I'm leaning towards maybe he will, given you'd think if he was just saying no he's decided not to run, that he could've just said that already...?

At this point, I'm hoping he does it since that would instantly lock up Casey's reelection.

[Sir Mohamed]

McCormick will steamroll him and he'll still very likely lose to Casey by high single digits

LOL, nah. Mastriano is the favorite to win the GOP nomination. He's where the party base's pulse is. I never bought McCormick being such a good candidate. He couldn't even beat Oz for god's sake. For sure this is great news for Casey.

[Sir Mohamed]

https://twitter.com/POLITICO_Steve/status/1691052705219846144

Yet another carpetbagger trying to win a senate seat in PA. Is their statewide bench that small to rely on these wealthy out of touch GOP donor circles candidates from another state?

Likely D -> Likely D.

[Sir Mohamed]

https://twitter.com/POLITICO_Steve/status/1691052705219846144

Yet another carpetbagger trying to win a senate seat in PA. Is their statewide bench that small to rely on these wealthy out of touch GOP donor circles candidates from another state?

Likely D -> Likely D.

IMO, yes. All of the sitting GOP congressmen are too far right for the median voter. They all represent (outside of Fitzpatrick) safe GOP districts, so they've never had to moderate. Fitzpatrick meanwhile could not win a primary, and even he is a phony 'moderate' 50% of the time. Meanwhile, their only two statewide GOP officeholders are Garrity and DeFoor. Garrity is batsh*t when you actually take a look at what she has said, while DeFoor is just a complete unknown. IMO both won in 2020 because they were both essentially unknown. DeFoor has not made a name for himself, so I guess you could argue he's generic Republican, but at the same time, it seems equally as likely that some stuff could get dug up on him if anyone even bothered to look into him.

Fitzpatrick is by any definition the most moderate member of the House and you think he's too far-right for Pennsylvania?
Would you say the same about the democratic congressmen from Pennsylvania, who are less moderate than a good chunk of the Republican delegation?

I mean outside of Fitzpatrick, they're all too far right. But Fitzpatrick is a nonstarter himself because he would never win a primary, and also a senate run would force him to finally take a side on many issues that he's skated around.

Yup, Fitzpatrick would lose a statewide primary and might not get the turnout from the hardcore base in a GE, even if he were to make inroads in places like Bucks County.

[Sir Mohamed]

Lol the media thinks McCormick is a “strong candidate”. These people are so out of touch it’s hilarious

Perhaps it's just because he's not Mastriano/Lake level insane. That's enough these days. That said, the dude doesn't strike me as strong candidate at all. Dems can easily paint him as out-of-touch hedgefund manager.

[Sir Mohamed]

LOL, McCormick is such a bad candidate, we have Fetterman run again, just for the memes? It would actually be funny. That said, I'm sure he will help Casey whereever he can. Grab your popcorn.

[Sir Mohamed]

It's like Oz all over again.

https://twitter.com/dabbs346/status/1705914475755213120

LOL... the GOP is so bad at this.

[Sir Mohamed]

https://twitter.com/mattholt33/status/1710265035719655788

Yikes. And people really thought this dude was a stronger candidate Dr. Oz. That might have been the most cringe take in a while.

[Sir Mohamed]

Given the results of this week, if Carolyn Carluccio was easily painted as anti-abortion when McCormick literally has *video footage* of him on record being anti-abortion, this could go even worse for him now. He'll be helped by Trump on the ballot, but I can't imagine it will be enough now.

Casey will probably win by 5 points imo

Sounds realistic. That's probably enough for Biden to carry the state as well, by around 2-3 pts. There will be some ticket splitting, but I fail to see how it's Shapiro/Fetterman levels.

[Sir Mohamed]

https://twitter.com/HeartlandSignal/status/1755321089574457778

This dude is gonna lose by 10 even if Trump wins.
He's such a disaster.

I doubt there's that much ticket splitting and polariazion will give him at least 45% of the vote. Nonethless, the dude helps to drag Trump down in PA as well.

[Sir Mohamed]

This race is quickly slipping away from the GOP. They never had a great chance, but I'm almost inclined to list it as safe.

They were never favored to begin with, but McCormick is doing all he can to get Casey reelected. Seems like the PA GOP in recent years just comes with one statewide candidate that sucks after another.

[Sir Mohamed]

"Vulnerable democrat sen. casey"
"facing tough re-elect"

I'm sorry in what world

https://twitter.com/mkraju/status/1780359989124591675

The MSM just loves to promote horse race narratives.

[Sir Mohamed]

Better late than never, I guess.

https://twitter.com/Acyn/status/1782763966877643103

Wonderful optics!

Is is a complete and total endorsement because McCormick is strong at border and great for vets?