PA-SEN 2024 megathread

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Please run McCormick PA GOP. pleassse!

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Fitzpatrick can absolutely win a primary. He's far more likely than someone like Steil in WI

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Likely D race. Casey is an institution in this state and the Republicans don't really have a bench of viable candidates to seriously challenge him. Of course, they could find an unexpectedly strong candidate out of nowhere who could make this a race, but right now, McCormick, Fitzpatrick, and DeFoor would likely be their best options, and Casey would still probably beat them quite comfortably.

Besides DeFoor, the only other elected statewide Republican is Stacy Garrity, and she's a Stop the Steal nut job. Casey would crush her.

McCormick would be a disaster. Imo only Fitzpatrick/DeFoor would have a prayer of even coming close

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

I actually think Casey - while a formidable opponent overall - is one the more overrated incumbent Democrats for 2024, and I don’t really buy that he’s unbeatable/that this race is Safe D like some posters have suggested (unless 2024 is a very favorable year for Democrats, in which case any Democrat would win here). While this is certainly among the last realistic pick-up opportunities for the GOP in 2024 that basically necessitates a GOP win at the presidential level (PA is probably a good bet for the 2024 tipping-point state), I don’t really view Casey's brand as unassailable. It will mostly come down to whether the GOP challenger has the resources and discipline to hammer away at the message that Casey has evolved into a reliably party-line liberal in the Senate and that he’s no longer the "old" Bob Casey (or not like "the old Bob Casey"). This can be a very potent message if executed competently (see: Bullock, Steve; Warner, Mark) and also makes voters feel less guilty about their previous support for Casey by placing blame on the incumbent.

I also think the notion that McCormick would be just as unpalatable to the electorate as Oz is ludicrous. Win or lose (this probably starts out at Lean D in a neutral year), it would be foolish for Republicans not to try here in a competitive national environment.

I mean, cockroaches are more appealing to the electorate than Mehmet Oz. McCormick being better than that is not saying much. Bottom line is, he has no chance of actually beating Casey. The strategy you describe could work but he is not the type of candidate that could do that

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Yall are just wishcasting if you think someone who lost by 14 points is going to be able to convince GOP voters that he can beat Bob Casey who while overrated imo, is clearly stronger than generic D. He's not winning the primary again.
 With that being said, Rs are going to have to find someone better than McCormick. He has no shot of actually winning this race

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Yall are just wishcasting if you think someone who lost by 14 points is going to be able to convince GOP voters that he can beat Bob Casey who while overrated imo, is clearly stronger than generic D. He's not winning the primary again.
 With that being said, Rs are going to have to find someone better than McCormick. He has no shot of actually winning this race

You are completely ignoring the fact that the PA GOP electorate is batsh*t insane. They knew who Mastriano was when he ran for Governor too. He won the primary because he's crazy, not in spite of it.

But there was no definitive proof that he was a bad candidate. Now we know that he lost in a neutralish environment by more than twice as Donald Trump lost by. All McCormick has to say is "He's not Electable hurt durr"

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

If Mastriano chooses to run, he has the entire MAGA lane open to him.

https://twitter.com/hollyotterbein/status/1636026700793348097

If they unite behind McCormick they are absolute buffoons. Bartos or DeFoor would be 10× better

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

McCormick will steamroll him and he'll still very likely lose to Casey by high single digits

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

McCormick will steamroll him and he'll still very likely lose to Casey by high single digits

LOL, nah. Mastriano is the favorite to win the GOP nomination. He's where the party base's pulse is. I never bought McCormick being such a good candidate. He couldn't even beat Oz for god's sake. For sure this is great news for Casey.

Thats a tad revisionist. I recalled McCormick overperforming his polling average and barely losing to Oz despite the Trump endorsement of the latter. Most people expected Oz to annihilate him

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

McCormick was polling poorly in most of the polling and overperformed. Period. But that'd beside the point
Mastriano literally lost by over more than twice than Trump did in 2020. He is now a proven lover, which I might add he was NOT in summer 2022. McCormick will have plenty of money, lots endorsements and massive establishment backing against someone who didn't even campaign at all in the general election.
If yall think Republicans are going to eternally nominate crazy people, you are going to be disappointed.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

McCormick was polling poorly in most of the polling and overperformed. Period. But that'd beside the point
Mastriano literally lost by over more than twice than Trump did in 2020. He is now a proven lover, which I might add he was NOT in summer 2022. McCormick will have plenty of money, lots endorsements and massive establishment backing against someone who didn't even campaign at all in the general election.
If yall think Republicans are going to eternally nominate crazy people, you are going to be disappointed.

OK, then I guess we should stop treating Trump as the presumptive GOP presidential nominee.

This but unironically(he can at least argue that he one once tbf, but still I think he might crash)

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

LOL

https://twitter.com/jjabbott/status/1696218868396474650

Trump could win Pennsylvania by 4-5 and he still wouldn’t be able to save McCormick lol

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Lol the media thinks McCormick is a “strong candidate”. These people are so out of touch it’s hilarious

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Lol the media thinks McCormick is a “strong candidate”. These people are so out of touch it’s hilarious

Perhaps it's just because he's not Mastriano/Lake level insane. That's enough these days. That said, the dude doesn't strike me as strong candidate at all. Dems can easily paint him as out-of-touch hedgefund manager.

Honestly someone as out-of-touch and elitist as McCormick (especially since he has a track record of literally taking jobs from Americans and sending them to China) can be even worse than a stereotypical "MAGA crazy" bad candidate.

Yeah MAGA folks at least have pretty passionate bases who are extremely motivated to vote. Corporate guys like McCormick are not gonna be able to juice turnout at all, especially against a pretty non-controversial incumbent like Casey.

Trump is on the ballot, McCormick doesn’t need to inspire turnout. The hope is that the Philly and Allegheny suburbs will split their vote for McCormick at a higher rate than WWC do for Casey. Quite unlikely, but not impossible.

Except he doesnt appeal to anyone lol, I don't care if they have a college degree or not. Dr Oz did WORSE with college ed whites than Trump lol

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

The way this forum talks about PA you'd think this was MA or CA. Lean D for now, Casey is favored, but this is by no means a sure deal. I also don't know how people can declare Casey safe without knowing the national environment a year from now.

I do think Casey’s brand can be deconstructed, but you cannot convince me McCormick is the guy to do it.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

The way this forum talks about PA you'd think this was MA or CA. Lean D for now, Casey is favored, but this is by no means a sure deal. I also don't know how people can declare Casey safe without knowing the national environment a year from now.

My brother in Christ McCormick is literally from Connecticut

He desperately wants the rust belt to be lean r and the sunbelt to be lean D even though it’s pretty obvious we are a long ways away from that

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

How early in the 2020 cycle did Stacy Garrity announce for Treasurer?

Does it bode well for her that by October she seems to have attracted no significant opposition, while DeFoor has attracted lots of attention and a top-tier opponent?

Where has DeFoor attracted lots of attention? The only attention I've seen has been in Kenyatta, his opponent.

I imagine it's just because Treasurer is probably the 'lowest' statewide seat. Garrity should be an easy one to beat, given she's literally pro-1/6.

Nonsense wbrocks People don't care about election denialism, just ask Governor Kari Lake and Congressman JR Majewski etc /s

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

NRSC/GOP groups seem downright obsessed with this race from a quick look at their Twitter. I get that defining Casey early is important, but I can’t believe they’re prioritizing this over NV and have released more ads on Casey than Tester/Brown.

Yeah, I don't exactly understand it. Maybe it's a recency bias thing; they held an R Senate seat in PA as recently as 2022 whereas in NV or MI they haven't in quite a while.

Another factor could be they believe McCormick would be able to finance a large part of this race on his won so they see it as a better investment.

Finally, they could just have internal data that convincingly suggests PA is a better R pickup opportunity, and that could be due to Rs being poised to make gains in PA and/or Dems are just in a good position in NV.

Stop trying to think of actual logical reasons.
The reason is obvious.
Establishment Republicans adore McCormick. He's a billionaire anti-Trump donor who hates the poor and is an elitist who wants the GOP to back to the old days.
That's why they're obsessed with him. They would probably prefer McCormick to win and Democrats hold the Senate, than Lake to win and Republicans take the Senate.

Agree with most of this but spending money on AZ Senate really is a waste. I just don't see a path to victory for Lake at this point. I honestly think it's possible McCormick is actually more likely to win than her

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

The problem here for the GOP is that even outside of the Casey name and history, Casey is quite possibly the least controversial person that could ever be in this seat. You can't brand him as an extremist or radical left or any of the usual GOP shenanigans. He is as 'vanilla' as it comes, but for PA, that's exactly where you want to be. I think that's why the only attack that they're even attempting at this point is "Casey has gotten nothing done!" but voters also don't follow the daily goings on of senators votes compared to what, for example, the Governor is getting done, so even that line doesn't really work

But you can brand him as someone who has been there too long/isn't as "moderate" as he "once was"/time to end the Casey dynasty etc. Not saying McCormick is the guy to do it but I still think this is much more viable than WI or even AZ at this point

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

https://twitter.com/HeartlandSignal/status/1755321089574457778

This dude is gonna lose by 10 even if Trump wins.
He's such a disaster.

I swear, Heinrich is more likely to lose

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Let’s not overreact here, even Romney only lost by 5 and that was before a realignment in rural Pennsylvania. He could definitely lose by around 5 in the end, but if he is losing by 10, Biden has won re-election and improved substantially on 2020.

McCormick has less appeal to non college whites than Mitt Romney did in 2012. Trump's coattails in MAGA country will help some but those two things cancel out

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

I still am kind of surprised at the lack of ... anything from the McCormick campaign. He's unopposed in the primary, but you would think he'd giving out signs and getting the word out early or something. There's nothing, no presence whatsoever. Casey doesn't have much either, but he's also a established figure, while McCormick has a lot of work to do.

Not only that, but given McCormick's high fundraising (from rich people), he has enough money to start running some ads. He could even try and define Casey a bit early; but he's literally doing nothing.

I'm not expecting him to go full fledged in March, but the primary is already next month and he's just... there

Remember how Mastriano didn't start running ads on TV until literally two weeks before the 2022-GOV election? And he wasn't even in those ads save for "I'm Doug Mastriano and I approve this message". 

Yep, which did make sense given that he was broke. I'm more surprised that McCormick isn't doing anything given he has some $$$ but maybe he's just stockpiling it for now. Honestly, Dems/Casey should take this time where he's not doing anything and start defining him on the airwaves imo. Oz him.

There could be a small possibility that he simply gives up and doesn't run at all.

Why would anyone spend his fortune to lose by 10-15 points ?

In any case the GOP should have plan B in case McCormick throws the towel.

Now that Hovde is running, I expect more focus to go towards Wisconsin. Baldwin likely has less crossover appeal than Casey and Trump is more likely to win WI anyway.

We'll have to agree to disagree. Imo, Wisconsin is the hardest for Trump to win back of the 3.