PA-SEN 2024 megathread

[Schiff for Senate]

NRSC/GOP groups seem downright obsessed with this race from a quick look at their Twitter. I get that defining Casey early is important, but I can’t believe they’re prioritizing this over NV and have released more ads on Casey than Tester/Brown.

Yeah, I don't exactly understand it. Maybe it's a recency bias thing; they held an R Senate seat in PA as recently as 2022 whereas in NV or MI they haven't in quite a while.

Another factor could be they believe McCormick would be able to finance a large part of this race on his won so they see it as a better investment.

Finally, they could just have internal data that convincingly suggests PA is a better R pickup opportunity, and that could be due to Rs being poised to make gains in PA and/or Dems are just in a good position in NV.

This applies to Sheehy in MT as well. And ofc he has a much higher chance of victory in the GE going in than McCormick does.

[Schiff for Senate]

Casey will win by more than Fetterman,Beaver and Berks are going to be Trump-Casey Counties.
And if Biden flips cumberland casey carries it too
McCormick doesn't have a path,he's doesn't have a WWC appeal and the suburbs aren't coming back.

Beaver isn't staying Dem. After all even Oz won it by 8 points last year. Unless Casey wins by double digits (he won't), Beaver is flipping from its 2018 result.

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/DaveMcCormickPA/status/1744341201682047161

[wbrocks67]

$5.4M + $1M of his own money. Surprised at the $5.4M, I'd like to see how much of that is grassroots...

[Pheurton Skeurto]

I have seen nothing from McCormick on the ground. No billboards, no yard signs, no TV/internet ads. I anticipate those will pick up closer to the election, but for someone who has hardly any name recognition outside of *maybe* the GOP base, especially when running against a Senator with MASSIVE crossover appeal, that seems like an odd strategy.

[wbrocks67]

I have seen nothing from McCormick on the ground. No billboards, no yard signs, no TV/internet ads. I anticipate those will pick up closer to the election, but for someone who has hardly any name recognition outside of *maybe* the GOP base, especially when running against a Senator with MASSIVE crossover appeal, that seems like an odd strategy.

Same - I get that he's running unopposed in the primary, but you'd still think there would be some more ground game, signs, etc. since like you said, he's nowhere near as known as Casey is.

[wbrocks67]

McCormick's bid meanwhile is quickly becoming a disaster

https://twitter.com/admcrlsn/status/1745096082969792639

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

https://twitter.com/DaveMcCormickPA/status/1744341201682047161

McConnell is actively hurting the GOP by trying to make this a priority race. All of this money should be diverted to actually winnable races instead of chasing his dream of a "moderate anti-Trump" candidate winning. Let's not forget he tried to do the same thing in 2022 by trying to make O'Dea a thing too.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Brown and Tester are narrowly leading and wave insurance in TX, MO and NEB it's not over unless Brown and Tester loses and they are out polling Biden in their state

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

McCormick won't beat Casey he could have beaten Oz and 28 is totally different than 22 as Inc Fetterman and Sara Rodriguez will crush the GOP in 28

[wbrocks67]

McCormick may actually be worse than Oz, pt 10:

https://twitter.com/Bob_Casey/status/1748750602564227410

[SnowLabrador]

McCormick may actually be worse than Oz, pt 10:

https://twitter.com/Bob_Casey/status/1748750602564227410

Uh...that's literally nothing new. All Republicans are against it, even those who claim to be for it.

[wbrocks67]

McCormick may actually be worse than Oz, pt 10:

https://twitter.com/Bob_Casey/status/1748750602564227410

Uh...that's literally nothing new. All Republicans are against it, even those who claim to be for it.

To be against this in *PA* when things like Amtrak/SEPTA are at stake, or impeding such situations like the I-95 collapse last year, it's one of the worst possible states I could think of to be against this.

[Roll Roons]

McCormick may actually be worse than Oz, pt 10:

https://twitter.com/Bob_Casey/status/1748750602564227410

Uh...that's literally nothing new. All Republicans are against it, even those who claim to be for it.

Is that why 19 Republican Senators voted for it? Seriously, do you listen to yourself?

[Senator Incitatus]

McCormick is easily worse than Oz. I supported Barnette by default, which is saying something given how weak of a candidate she was. (I preferred Sands, but her campaign went nowhere.)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

McCormick isn't worse than Oz he was leading Fetterman but he is running against Casey not Fetterman, they are gonna have problems on 26 with Shapiro and 28 with Fetterman again

[President Johnson]

McCormick may actually be worse than Oz, pt 10:

https://twitter.com/Bob_Casey/status/1748750602564227410

Almost feels like the guy a Democratic plant at this point, lmao. I hope Trump also campaigns on this and how he ended Roe.

[GoTfan]

Honestly, if the PAGOP lose this one, they will have lost three easily winnable races in a row because they've no high tier candidates. For crying out loud, they somehow managed to lose a Senate race to a guy who had to take time off because of a stroke.

[Steve from Lambeth]

McCormick may actually be worse than Oz, pt 10:

https://twitter.com/Bob_Casey/status/1748750602564227410

Are you only just starting to get to grips with this possibility? I wholeheartedly accepted it the minute Donald Trump made his endorsement in the 2022 primary.

[Flyersfan232]

Honestly, if the PAGOP lose this one, they will have lost three easily winnable races in a row because they've no high tier candidates. For crying out loud, they somehow managed to lose a Senate race to a guy who had to take time off because of a stroke.

this race was never winnable

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Honestly, if the PAGOP lose this one, they will have lost three easily winnable races in a row because they've no high tier candidates. For crying out loud, they somehow managed to lose a Senate race to a guy who had to take time off because of a stroke.

Wouldn’t really call this race “easily winnable”.

[wbrocks67]

Okay, he really is worse than Dr Oz. Truly amazing

https://twitter.com/HeartlandSignal/status/1749827879989387277?s=20

[SilverStar]

Casey will win by more than Fetterman,Beaver and Berks are going to be Trump-Casey Counties.
And if Biden flips cumberland casey carries it too
McCormick doesn't have a path,he's doesn't have a WWC appeal and the suburbs aren't coming back.

Beaver isn't staying Dem. After all even Oz won it by 8 points last year. Unless Casey wins by double digits (he won't), Beaver is flipping from its 2018 result.

Casey might as well win by double digit or close to it,2022 PA Senate isn't a good benchmark for the race (midterm bump,Fetterman's stroke)
Carluccio was suppost to be a storng candidate and she only won Beaver by 6.
Beaver is a tossup on the Senate race.

[wbrocks67]

he still won't answer lol

https://twitter.com/American_Bridge/status/1752719263847047408

[SilverStar]

https://twitter.com/HeartlandSignal/status/1755321089574457778