PA-SEN 2024 megathread

[ProgressiveModerate]

This starts as Likely D, closer to Safe than Lean.

Imo this is a bit too confident; we’re 2 years out, and PA is a perennial tossup and will be highly contested on the Pres level. Lean D seems appropriate.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I think one factor at play here is this is probably the GOP's like 8th best flip opportunity, so I suspect they'll heavily invest in a lot of other races over PA.

If the map was less lopsided towards the GOP, I think this seat would be in much more danger for Dems.

(To be clear, I don't think Dems should take it for granted, but I agree with the consensus that something would have to go notably wrong for them to lose this seat in 2024).

[ProgressiveModerate]

McCormick is literally going to be Oz 2.0 if he ultimately gets the nomination.

Still skeptical he will though.

[ProgressiveModerate]

NRSC/GOP groups seem downright obsessed with this race from a quick look at their Twitter. I get that defining Casey early is important, but I can’t believe they’re prioritizing this over NV and have released more ads on Casey than Tester/Brown.

Yeah, I don't exactly understand it. Maybe it's a recency bias thing; they held an R Senate seat in PA as recently as 2022 whereas in NV or MI they haven't in quite a while.

Another factor could be they believe McCormick would be able to finance a large part of this race on his won so they see it as a better investment.

Finally, they could just have internal data that convincingly suggests PA is a better R pickup opportunity, and that could be due to Rs being poised to make gains in PA and/or Dems are just in a good position in NV.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Why do PAGOP have such a hard time finding someone who lives in PA lol

They wouldn't nominate a better candidate like Fitzpatrick. He'd lose the primary in a landslide. Also seems like the Republican bench in Pennsylvania is underwhelming.

The bench is underwhelming, and the PA GOP doesn't have any candidates from the population centers (Philly metro and Pittsburgh metro) that can win both a primary and general election. Fitzpatrick would absolutely win a general, but he would be toast in the primary.

This.

I think an underrated problem for the GOP in PA is the general lack of remaining red suburbs - suburbs tend to elect more palatable candidates for statewide than rural areas. In the US House and state leg, the PA GOP is increasingly becoming an almost exclusively rural party.