PA-SEN 2024 megathread

[wbrocks67]

Please run McCormick PA GOP. pleassse!

Yeah, McCormick would be a dream candidate for Casey. Another rich, out of touch, elite carpetbagger against someone who actually has ties to PA.

[wbrocks67]

Please run McCormick PA GOP. pleassse!

Yeah, McCormick would be a dream candidate for Casey. Another rich, out of touch, elite carpetbagger against someone who actually has ties to PA.

And he absolutely couldn't run against Casey the way the GOP ran against Fetterman. The last thing you can call Bob Casey is radical. He's probably the most boring person in the United States Senate.

I honestly don't even remember how the GOP ran against Casey in 2018. Like what was even Barletta's case against him?

[wbrocks67]

No idea how McCormick is a weak candidate, but he probably isn’t strong enough to beat Casey. The GOP can do a lot worse here (imagine running Scott Perry lol), but this is Lean D until evidence arises otherwise, Casey has a history of outrunning the top of the ticket.

McCormick isn't Oz-weak, but he's just mediocre IMO. He's just another generic R but with big flaws (the CT residence thing, being extremely rich, can be painted as 'out of touch' as well, but not as bad as Oz) while Casey is just an extremely strong candidate. He's essentially the Cartwright of statewide.

[wbrocks67]

McCormick would definitely not be their best choice, but who else are they going to run? Fitzpatrick would have no chance in a primary.

The bench is awful in PA. Their only possible good choice may DeFoor, who seems the least crazy out of the batch. Garrity looks like a chance too, and she's nearly Mastriano crazy.

[wbrocks67]

Fitzpatrick can absolutely win a primary. He's far more likely than someone like Steil in WI

IDK, the last two elections he only won like ~65% in his own primary in PA-01. Statewide GOP primary voters are much more crazy than PA-01 GOP primary voters.

[wbrocks67]

DeFoor is intriguing though, but I'd also have to personally learn more about him to say he's "stronger" than the rest of the bench. I think most of the reason people assume that is because they don't much about him and assume he's not a dingbat like Garrity, etc.

Honestly a lot of his win IMO in 2020 was also due to Ahmad being extremely liberal/progressive and also a bit of racism towards her as well (yes I know DeFoor is Black, but Ahmad was a more specific racism)

[wbrocks67]

Congrats on re-election, Sen. Casey!

https://twitter.com/dabbs346/status/1597254240321568769

[wbrocks67]

DeFoor is intriguing though, but I'd also have to personally learn more about him to say he's "stronger" than the rest of the bench. I think most of the reason people assume that is because they don't much about him and assume he's not a dingbat like Garrity, etc.

Honestly a lot of his win IMO in 2020 was also due to Ahmad being extremely liberal/progressive and also a bit of racism towards her as well (yes I know DeFoor is Black, but Ahmad was a more specific racism)

YES.  You’re one of the few people who I’ve noticed pick up on this, but Nina’s underperformance relative to the other Democratic statewide candidates in more rural parts of PA suggests to me at least a bit of racism at play with casually voting ConservaDems and Indys.  Also, Timothy DeFoor is not a very recognizably traditionally Black name, and I spoke with many rural Republicans who didn’t even know he was Black until he won the seat and they saw him on TV during election results.  So Defoor didn’t seem to suffer much of the racist undervote from the rurals that has affected other Black Republicans in PA *cough* Lynn Swann *cough*.  Conversely, my friends in Philly and Harrisburg, media markets with a significant percentage of Black voters, reported intense advertising portraying DeFoor as a community-minded, good government moderate without mentioning his party affiliation.  I wouldn’t be surprised if he peeled off a good couple percentage points of the urban Black vote now that straight-ticket voting is no more (though I’d have to go over the precinct data to confirm that), but I don’t know that we can extrapolate his performance in the least well-known of the state row office elections, to a much more polarized gubernatorial or senatorial run.  We’ll have to see!

Yep, all of this. Especially with DeFoor being such an unknown in so many places that I wouldn't be surprised if people didn't even realize what race he was tbh (compared to Ahmad which was clearly a more non-white name).

I feel like when looking at the results and Garrity and DeFoor winning a lot of this comes into play. A lot of it comes from not many people knowing who these people were (clearly a lot of people didn't even know who Torsella was!) and I would imagine, like you said, given that nobody knew much about Garrity or DeFoor one way or the other, you probably have a lot of people who probably say "well I'll vote for Biden and Shapiro but then balance it out with the other statewide races."

Again, fortunately for Garrity especially, she got away with nobody knowing how crazy she truly was. Because otherwise, there was no reason for Torsella to lose. He also ran a pretty low information campaign as well though, which didn't help. I don't remember anyone IRL talking about either of those two races or any of the candidates, but I did suspect that Ahmad would face some racism because of her name, etc.

[wbrocks67]

This is a very strong Lean D race, bordering on Likely D. I can only see Casey losing in a red wave environment.

Pretty much this. Also depends on the opponent, though it seems the Pennsylvania bench of Republicans is weak.

The problem for the PA GOP is that all of their congressional Republicans are too far-right for the state at large, except for Fitzpatrick, and he would likely lose a primary.

[wbrocks67]

I actually think Casey - while a formidable opponent overall - is one the more overrated incumbent Democrats for 2024, and I don’t really buy that he’s unbeatable/that this race is Safe D like some posters have suggested (unless 2024 is a very favorable year for Democrats, in which case any Democrat would win here). While this is certainly among the last realistic pick-up opportunities for the GOP in 2024 that basically necessitates a GOP win at the presidential level (PA is probably a good bet for the 2024 tipping-point state), I don’t really view Casey's brand as unassailable. It will mostly come down to whether the GOP challenger has the resources and discipline to hammer away at the message that Casey has evolved into a reliably party-line liberal in the Senate and that he’s no longer the "old" Bob Casey (or not like "the old Bob Casey"). This can be a very potent message if executed competently (see: Bullock, Steve; Warner, Mark) and also makes voters feel less guilty about their previous support for Casey by placing blame on the incumbent.

I also think the notion that McCormick would be just as unpalatable to the electorate as Oz is ludicrous. Win or lose (this probably starts out at Lean D in a neutral year), it would be foolish for Republicans not to try here in a competitive national environment.

Sorry, I'm gonna pull the whole "you just don't get it because you don't live here." You really see what we just went through with PA-SEN this year and your conclusion is that Casey is overrated? Sis, really?

[wbrocks67]

McCormick would probably be slightly stronger than Oz (he's from Western PA if nothing else), but not by much, and I suspect Casey is slightly stronger than Fetterman such that it essentially balances out. If I were the PAGOP I'd probably be thinking Reschenthaler > DeFoor > some other random House member > McCormick (excluding memes like Fitzpatrick who are DOA in a statewide primary). The thing is though that I think a lot of the credible candidates are gonna see a tough race likely deprioritized by the national GOP given the volume of more appealing flips and not bite.

I'll be bold and put this at likely D. While there is obviously a conceivable way for Rs to win this seat, I just don't see it next cycle.

Reschenthaler doesn't work. None of the house GOP candidates work. They're all far right, barring Fitzpatrick. And yet Fitz would likely lose a primary. So they're in a crappy spot, essentially.

[wbrocks67]

McCormick would probably be slightly stronger than Oz (he's from Western PA if nothing else), but not by much, and I suspect Casey is slightly stronger than Fetterman such that it essentially balances out. If I were the PAGOP I'd probably be thinking Reschenthaler > DeFoor > some other random House member > McCormick (excluding memes like Fitzpatrick who are DOA in a statewide primary). The thing is though that I think a lot of the credible candidates are gonna see a tough race likely deprioritized by the national GOP given the volume of more appealing flips and not bite.

I'll be bold and put this at likely D. While there is obviously a conceivable way for Rs to win this seat, I just don't see it next cycle.

Reschenthaler doesn't work. None of the house GOP candidates work. They're all far right, barring Fitzpatrick. And yet Fitz would likely lose a primary. So they're in a crappy spot, essentially.

Yeah I mean end of the day no one except Toomey or Fitzpatrick would be remotely favored and both are DOA in primaries.

Toomey wouldn't have been favored this year. He wouldn't have been as DOA as Oz, but what people don't seem to understand is that Toomey is intensely disliked in PA and has been for years now. He's also lost any of that 2016 crossover vote he had. The suburbs would not have given him anywhere close to the margins they gave him back then now.

[wbrocks67]

McCormick would probably be slightly stronger than Oz (he's from Western PA if nothing else), but not by much, and I suspect Casey is slightly stronger than Fetterman such that it essentially balances out. If I were the PAGOP I'd probably be thinking Reschenthaler > DeFoor > some other random House member > McCormick (excluding memes like Fitzpatrick who are DOA in a statewide primary). The thing is though that I think a lot of the credible candidates are gonna see a tough race likely deprioritized by the national GOP given the volume of more appealing flips and not bite.

I'll be bold and put this at likely D. While there is obviously a conceivable way for Rs to win this seat, I just don't see it next cycle.

Reschenthaler doesn't work. None of the house GOP candidates work. They're all far right, barring Fitzpatrick. And yet Fitz would likely lose a primary. So they're in a crappy spot, essentially.

Yeah I mean end of the day no one except Toomey or Fitzpatrick would be remotely favored and both are DOA in primaries.

Toomey wouldn't have been favored this year. He wouldn't have been as DOA as Oz, but what people don't seem to understand is that Toomey is intensely disliked in PA and has been for years now. He's also lost any of that 2016 crossover vote he had. The suburbs would not have given him anywhere close to the margins they gave him back then now.

If it had been Toomey vs. Fetterman, what percentage do you think each would have gotten? (I know you don't know, we can never know, just your best guess).

Maybe Fetterman by 2 or 3? I don't think Fett would've won by the margins he did with Oz, and incumbency would've helped Toomey a bit, but Oz was always hurt by his terrible favorables. If you take a look at any poll from the last 2-3 years that has Toomey favs, his are god awful too, with a insignificant portion of Reps also disliking him. I don't think he would've been able to survive given the Dem margins in the suburbs these days (and out of Allegheny)

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/JanMurphy/status/1611028355117383680

[wbrocks67]

Lmfaooooooo McCormick

Even Lamb would wash his ass

Yeah, it's very funny to me that McCormick is still being held up as some good candidate.

Let's not forget too that Oz and Barnette covered the Trumpy vote, and that easily outweighed the 30% McCormick got. He would need another crowded primary to win.

[wbrocks67]

Certainly very telling of the state of the PA GOP when McCormick - another Oz millionaire who has spent many years outside of PA before flying right back in - is their best shot.

[wbrocks67]

Certainly very telling of the state of the PA GOP when McCormick - another Oz millionaire who has spent many years outside of PA before flying right back in - is their best shot.

Oh how I yearn for the days when the 2022 GE was going to be Costello vs. Fetterman...

Costello being essentially pushing out of politics has been delicious though. I would also be surprised if Barnette didn't try and take another stab here...

[wbrocks67]

Certainly very telling of the state of the PA GOP when McCormick - another Oz millionaire who has spent many years outside of PA before flying right back in - is their best shot.

He's only their best shot in terms of winning a primary though. I think a Brian Fitzpatrick would be a formidable candidate, though he's not winning a statewide primary. Dude isn't insane enough.

Well and honestly I don't even think the primary is assured if there were multiple people like last time. If someone like Barnette (or Mastriano) jumped in, they would definitely give him a run for his money.

[wbrocks67]

If Mastriano chooses to run, he has the entire MAGA lane open to him.

https://twitter.com/hollyotterbein/status/1636026700793348097

[wbrocks67]

If Mastriano chooses to run, he has the entire MAGA lane open to him.

https://twitter.com/hollyotterbein/status/1636026700793348097

If they unite behind McCormick they are absolute buffoons. Bartos or DeFoor would be 10× better

McCormick literally has all of Oz's flaws, but dumbass GOP donors/operatives's only lesson from the midterms was "if anyone did poorly it was cause they weren't anto-Trump enough".
A carpetbagger out-of-touch hedge fund manager billionaire who outsources jobs to China, is socially liberal and economically aligns with Paul Ryan may be the perfect candidate for Mitch McConnell, but who does he appeal to?
Like seriously who actually likes this guy? He has no charisma and already has tens of millions of dollars of attack ads spent on him.
For goodness sake democrats will run that clip of Trump calling him a "pro-China globalist totally controlled by Mitch McConnell and Wall Street" at that really last year EVERY DAY. That will catastrophically destroy turnout for him, and you know Trump won't campaign for someone who said he deserved to be impeached.

David McCormick is just the Republican Kyrsten Sinema. It's that simple.

Well all of that and too - if they're thinking is also oh McCormick is more of a "moderate white guy" type figure (even though he's not moderate, but more moderate than say Barnette or Mastriano), then.... PA already has that in Casey lol

[wbrocks67]

If Mastriano chooses to run, he has the entire MAGA lane open to him.

https://twitter.com/hollyotterbein/status/1636026700793348097

If they unite behind McCormick they are absolute buffoons. Bartos or DeFoor would be 10× better

McCormick literally has all of Oz's flaws, but dumbass GOP donors/operatives's only lesson from the midterms was "if anyone did poorly it was cause they weren't anto-Trump enough".
A carpetbagger out-of-touch hedge fund manager billionaire who outsources jobs to China, is socially liberal and economically aligns with Paul Ryan may be the perfect candidate for Mitch McConnell, but who does he appeal to?
Like seriously who actually likes this guy? He has no charisma and already has tens of millions of dollars of attack ads spent on him.
For goodness sake democrats will run that clip of Trump calling him a "pro-China globalist totally controlled by Mitch McConnell and Wall Street" at that really last year EVERY DAY. That will catastrophically destroy turnout for him, and you know Trump won't campaign for someone who said he deserved to be impeached.

David McCormick is just the Republican Kyrsten Sinema. It's that simple.

Well all of that and too - if they're thinking is also oh McCormick is more of a "moderate white guy" type figure (even though he's not moderate, but more moderate than say Barnette or Mastriano), then.... PA already has that in Casey lol

But can't McCormick easily be painted as out of touch hedgefund dude? I never bought in 2022 that he was a much better candidate than Oz.

Oh 100%. I'm talking more about the delusional GOPers who think that McCormick is going to be seen as some moderate savior to voters.

[wbrocks67]

This is the GOP's "star recruit"

https://twitter.com/kelsientaggart/status/1637862651085611024

[wbrocks67]

Also seems McCormick still seems a little unsure, which is surprising. Thought he was all-in, but honestly if Mastriano does jump in, he'll likely win the primary again.

https://twitter.com/blockedfreq/status/1645433381277106178

[wbrocks67]

Very "moderate" Republican!

https://twitter.com/dabbs346/status/1645436313280081920

[wbrocks67]

Some people are falling for this fake video... Mastriano has not announced yet. But judging by his Twitter feed/RT's, seems like it's imminent

https://twitter.com/metzgov/status/1645811416555745281