PA-SEN 2024 megathread

[President Johnson]

This is a very strong Lean D race, bordering on Likely D. I can only see Casey losing in a red wave environment.

Pretty much this. Also depends on the opponent, though it seems the Pennsylvania bench of Republicans is weak.

[President Johnson]

Could the Democrats be so lucky?

https://www.politico.com/news/2023/03/07/mastriano-weighing-senate-run-2024-00085747

It's almost like the guy is a Democratic plant.

[President Johnson]

If this happens Casey might even be able to beat Mastriano by more than Shapiro did.

Unlikely, since federal races are more polarized but Casey would probably still win by double digits against Mastriano.

Agreed, though I could also see him "just" winning by high single digits. This would definitely be good news for Biden as well.

[President Johnson]

Yall are just wishcasting if you think someone who lost by 14 points is going to be able to convince GOP voters that he can beat Bob Casey who while overrated imo, is clearly stronger than generic D. He's not winning the primary again.
 With that being said, Rs are going to have to find someone better than McCormick. He has no shot of actually winning this race

It can be difficult to understand as a Democrat but Republican primary voters have drastically different motivations and priorities than Democratic primary voters (a phenomenon that has only been exacerbated since 2016, though of course still existed beforehand). This of course doesn't mean Mastriano will win this primary if he runs, but if he loses it won't be because McCormick or some other person runs aggressively on electability. As I've been saying for months - the GOP's candidate quality problems are a systemic issue that can't and won't be solved in a single election cycle.

Exactly this. They want someone who's taking fight in the mud with "socialist Democrats" and "globalist elites" that "want to make America more like the rest of the world" (meaning Canada, Europe and New Zealand in particular). Wasn't a common saying in 2016 that Republican voters would much rather lose with Trump than win with Jeb?

[President Johnson]

If Mastriano chooses to run, he has the entire MAGA lane open to him.

https://twitter.com/hollyotterbein/status/1636026700793348097

Good. She scares me. She's still batsh*t insane but no doubt that a lot of Republicans would say "I can't be racist, I voted for the black lady"

Was there are reason to be scared of her, if nominated? I think Casey would have easily beaten her, just has he will clobber Mastriano.

[President Johnson]

This is the GOP's "star recruit"

https://twitter.com/kelsientaggart/status/1637862651085611024

How did anyone think this out of touch Republican donor class guy is a good candidate? Just because Oz sucked or he'd be slightly less insane than Mastriano?

[President Johnson]

McCormick was polling poorly in most of the polling and overperformed. Period. But that'd beside the point
Mastriano literally lost by over more than twice than Trump did in 2020. He is now a proven lover, which I might add he was NOT in summer 2022. McCormick will have plenty of money, lots endorsements and massive establishment backing against someone who didn't even campaign at all in the general election.
If yall think Republicans are going to eternally nominate crazy people, you are going to be disappointed.

OK, then I guess we should stop treating Trump as the presumptive GOP presidential nominee.

This but unironically(he can at least argue that he one once tbf, but still I think he might crash)

Lmao, as of now he's the overwhelming favorite. He's leading by margins in the 30s and 40s over his closest rival.

If Mastriano jumps in, I guess he'll be the nominee.

[President Johnson]

LOL

https://twitter.com/jjabbott/status/1696218868396474650

Yet people around McTurtleman and even on this forum continue to insist this guy is and/or would have been a better candidate "Dr." Oz. He's just an equally atrocious candidate who would stand next to no chance against a local icon such as Bob Casey. He's easy to paint as another out-of-touch elitist who wants to carpetbag his way into buying a political office purely for his own ego.

The entire Republican bench in Pennsylvania seems to be kind of laughingstock in recent years. Their only viable alternative is Fitzpartick, who would get swamped in a primary because he hasn't gone full MAGA.

[President Johnson]

McCormick seems to be a hot mess, I have no idea why people thought last year he'd be so much stronger than Dr. Oz. He would have lost by a similar margin.

However, it seems like the Republican bench in the state is extremely thin, with most of the representatives being bland and too far right for the state as a whole, other than Fitzpatrick. And he isn't going to win a statewide Republican primary.

[President Johnson]

McCormick may actually be worse than Oz, pt 10:

https://twitter.com/Bob_Casey/status/1748750602564227410

Almost feels like the guy a Democratic plant at this point, lmao. I hope Trump also campaigns on this and how he ended Roe.

[President Johnson]

https://twitter.com/HeartlandSignal/status/1755321089574457778

This dude is gonna lose by 10 even if Trump wins.
He's such a disaster.

I quite never understood why so many Republicans in 2022 thought he would have been a better candidate than Oz. He's probably even worse in terms of electability.

[President Johnson]

Why do PAGOP have such a hard time finding someone who lives in PA lol

They wouldn't nominate a better candidate like Fitzpatrick. He'd lose the primary in a landslide. Also seems like the Republican bench in Pennsylvania is underwhelming.

[President Johnson]

Trump has endorsed McCormick formally tonight at his rally in Schnecksville. Dave McCormick has also been endorsed by W Bush.

Disappointing news for Shaula.

But the Republican bench here so thin and weak, it seems like Trump didn't have much of a choice after Mastriano didn't enter.