Election models megathread

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

IDK, the DDHQ election model seems kind of sloppy. They seem to be missing quite a bit of polling in different races.

At least they fixed the MN-05 and FL-24 problems. Overall it doesn't seem too bad and seems like what you'd expect if 2022 ends up being a pretty solid R wave. My only gripe is that they weight incumbency a bit too mcuh in such a polarized era.

Yeah, they have the House at 234-201 right now..... 538's 230-205 seems a bit more realistic.

As I said before and say it again we can get 235/210R H and ,50/56DS we can get any wave Insurance map D's out ote Rs 65/60M we didn't win 80M votes in 2010, to win OH Sen

Progressive Moderate thinks Barnes Kelly and CCM are gonna lose they're all winning it's a range 50/40/10 Divided Govt/Secularist Trifecta/R Congress

Stop worrying about a H majority if we win OH, NC and FL Sen we can win the H

[David Hume]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liberty_Vittert

Vittert is a Visiting Scholar[6] at Harvard University and a Professor of the Practice of Data Science[7] at the Olin Business School at Washington University in St. Louis.[8] She is also a Senior Fellow[9] at the Harvard Data Science Initiative and the feature editor of the Harvard Data Science Review.

She developed a model at DDHQ. https://forecast.decisiondeskhq.com/house

There are quite a few interesting races where her model differs with the conventional wisdom here. She has AZ as likely D, NC toss up, WI likely R, OH lean R.

For the House, there are even more wired ratings. For example, MI3 is lean R, CA22 likely R, OR4, OR5, OR6 all toss up, NJ7 toss up.

I am not sure how academics did in election predictions before. But her rating seems quite off.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It won't matter anyways 24 will be up as soon as 22 is over and both parties will competete for H and Senate majority it matters only how many seats each party gets wave insurance for 24 but Biden is expected to win reelection

[Crumpets]

Can someone explain why the Deluxe and Classic models on 538 apparently see Ryan's win last night as hurting his chances in November, but the Lite model sees it as dramatically increasing his chances? All I can assume is that because it's a midterm, the first two treat him as a "one term" incumbent, who are likely to lose in a midterm that on paper should be better for the opposite party?

[OneJ]

In anticipation of Morris’ new model…

https://mobile.twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1562475059574235138

[GeorgiaModerate]

D chances of Senate control tick up again at 538, now 65% in the Deluxe model and 76% in Classic.  R's are still favored in the House with 78% in Deluxe and 77% in Classic.

[windjammer]

Frankly Cook and Sabato are such a Big bunch of pussies. With all the special elections showing democrats doing better in the suburbs than Biden in 2020, they could have at least the decency to update their ratings for the House. Not saying that democrats are favored but their current ratings look like a republican wave

[wbrocks67]

red wave cancelled

https://twitter.com/FaceTheNation/status/1563322406541803522

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's still likely RH but it's a Likely D Sen and 303 Govs but we don't know yet about OH, FL and NC

We can get a 2012 scenario where Rs take the H and we get an expanded Majority in the Sen because our Senate and Gov candidates are always stronger than House candidates it's been looking this way a long time 52/55 Seats in Senate and RH and 26/24 DGovs

[GeorgiaModerate]

Democrats are now more than a 2:1 favorite for Senate control (67-33) in the 538 Deluxe model.  In the Classic model they're at 77-23, which equals R probability of House control in both models.

[Xing]

Okay, I’m still guessing Ron Johnson wins, but how on earth does DDHQ still have him as a 93% favorite, and have Wisconsin as less likely to flip than Florida or Ohio? If they have Rubio’s chances at just 84%, “muh incumbency” doesn’t explain it.

[wbrocks67]

Okay, I’m still guessing Ron Johnson wins, but how on earth does DDHQ still have him as a 93% favorite, and have Wisconsin as less likely to flip than Florida or Ohio? If they have Rubio’s chances at just 84%, “muh incumbency” doesn’t explain it.

Honestly their model is a mess. They also don't weigh their polls either, so strong swings happen. They posted today how "their polling average for PA went from Fetterman +8.6 to +4.9" so now it's a tossup.

[President Johnson]

Democrats are now more than a 2:1 favorite for Senate control (67-33) in the 538 Deluxe model.  In the Classic model they're at 77-23, which equals R probability of House control in both models.

Democratic chances increase almost daily at this rate here. Just the House forecast remains stubborn. Was 78-22 for long, now it's 77-23.

[2016]

The Map isn't there for Democrats to retain the House.

I will be watching the Virginia 2nd Congressional Race on Election Night between Rep. Elaine Luria and her Republican Opponent Jen Kiggans. This District is a total Swing District similar to NY-19. If Kiggans wins Republicans Chances of retaking the House jumps to 95 %.

[ProgressiveModerate]

The Map isn't there for Democrats to retain the House.

I will be watching the Virginia 2nd Congressional Race on Election Night between Rep. Elaine Luria and her Republican Opponent Jen Kiggans. This District is a total Swing District similar to NY-19. If Kiggans wins Republicans Chances of retaking the House jumps to 95 %.

VA-02 was the median House seat on 2020 Pres numbers so yeah def a very important one for both sides (since it seems unlikely Kiggans or Luria would significantly defy traditionally partisanhip and run away with it). It seems like most paths of least resistance to a Dem majority will require them to win a few Trump districts such as IA-03, MI-07, PA-08, or MI-10 since Rs have seats like PA-01, CA-40, NE-02, and maybe NJ-07 pretty locked down (at least enough to be to the right of the tipping point)

For reference, he's a list of seats ranked by 2020 Pres results:

205 - WA08 - B + 6.67
206 - NV03 - B + 6.64
207 - NE02 - B + 6.32
208 - CA45 - B + 6.18
209 - NH01 - B + 5.93
210 - NM02 - B + 5.88
211 - PA17 - B + 5.83
212 - PA01 - B + 4.64
213 - NY19 - B + 4.62
214 - CO08 - B + 4.55
215 - KS03 - B + 4.45
216 - NJ07 - B + 3.66
217 - OH13 - B + 2.82
218 - VA02 - B + 2.05
219 - MI08 - B + 2.03
220 - CA40 - B + 1.87
221 - NC13 - B + 1.69
222 - AZ01 - B + 1.48
223 - MI07 - B + 0.95
224 - PA07 - B + 0.62
225 - NY01 - B + 0.21
226 - AZ06 - B + 0.07
227 - FL27 - T + 0.32
228 - IA03 - T + 0.34
229 - MI10 - T + 0.98
230 - CA41 - T + 1.09

One thing that's interesting is that seat 211 (PA-17) is nearly Biden + 6 which is pretty blue and to the left of the nation but after that the seats drop off for Dems very quickly and by seat 218 you're at Biden + 2. However, after that the list slows down again and you have quite a lot of seats that were extremely close in the 2020 pres race.

[2016]

The Map isn't there for Democrats to retain the House.

I will be watching the Virginia 2nd Congressional Race on Election Night between Rep. Elaine Luria and her Republican Opponent Jen Kiggans. This District is a total Swing District similar to NY-19. If Kiggans wins Republicans Chances of retaking the House jumps to 95 %.

VA-02 was the median House seat on 2020 Pres numbers so yeah def a very important one for both sides (since it seems unlikely Kiggans or Luria would significantly defy traditionally partisanhip and run away with it). It seems like most paths of least resistance to a Dem majority will require them to win a few Trump districts such as IA-03, MI-07, PA-08, or MI-10 since Rs have seats like PA-01, CA-40, NE-02, and maybe NJ-07 pretty locked down (at least enough to be to the right of the tipping point)

For reference, he's a list of seats ranked by 2020 Pres results:

205 - WA08 - B + 6.67
206 - NV03 - B + 6.64
207 - NE02 - B + 6.32
208 - CA45 - B + 6.18
209 - NH01 - B + 5.93
210 - NM02 - B + 5.88
211 - PA17 - B + 5.83
212 - PA01 - B + 4.64
213 - NY19 - B + 4.62
214 - CO08 - B + 4.55
215 - KS03 - B + 4.45
216 - NJ07 - B + 3.66
217 - OH13 - B + 2.82
218 - VA02 - B + 2.05
219 - MI08 - B + 2.03
220 - CA40 - B + 1.87
221 - NC13 - B + 1.69
222 - AZ01 - B + 1.48
223 - MI07 - B + 0.95
224 - PA07 - B + 0.62
225 - NY01 - B + 0.21
226 - AZ06 - B + 0.07
227 - FL27 - T + 0.32
228 - IA03 - T + 0.34
229 - MI10 - T + 0.98
230 - CA41 - T + 1.09

One thing that's interesting is that seat 211 (PA-17) is nearly Biden + 6 which is pretty blue and to the left of the nation but after that the seats drop off for Dems very quickly and by seat 218 you're at Biden + 2. However, after that the list slows down again and you have quite a lot of seats that were extremely close in the 2020 pres race.

We could also have a systematic Polling Error. In 2016, 2018 and 2020 every single time Pollsters undercounted the Shy Trump Vote.

As far as the Senate goes yes Models are showing Democrats with a good lead BUT when you look at WI, GA, NV there are all within the MOE. They can easily go the other way.
If you look at 2014 for example Races in IA, CO, NC started to swing in the Final 2 Weeks of the Campaign.

[Brittain33]

We could also have a systematic Polling Error. In 2016, 2018 and 2020 every single time Pollsters undercounted the Shy Trump Vote.

On the contrary, in 2018 Democrats did much better than predicted in the House - 40 seats was at or above the upper limits of what people expected. Polls underestimated partisanship, which is why people remember Republicans winning Senate seats handily in Missouri and Indiana as some kind of surprise, but of course Dems weren’t expected to unseat so many incumbent House Rs.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

The Map isn't there for Democrats to retain the House.

I will be watching the Virginia 2nd Congressional Race on Election Night between Rep. Elaine Luria and her Republican Opponent Jen Kiggans. This District is a total Swing District similar to NY-19. If Kiggans wins Republicans Chances of retaking the House jumps to 95 %.

VA-02 was the median House seat on 2020 Pres numbers so yeah def a very important one for both sides (since it seems unlikely Kiggans or Luria would significantly defy traditionally partisanhip and run away with it). It seems like most paths of least resistance to a Dem majority will require them to win a few Trump districts such as IA-03, MI-07, PA-08, or MI-10 since Rs have seats like PA-01, CA-40, NE-02, and maybe NJ-07 pretty locked down (at least enough to be to the right of the tipping point)

For reference, he's a list of seats ranked by 2020 Pres results:

205 - WA08 - B + 6.67
206 - NV03 - B + 6.64
207 - NE02 - B + 6.32
208 - CA45 - B + 6.18
209 - NH01 - B + 5.93
210 - NM02 - B + 5.88
211 - PA17 - B + 5.83
212 - PA01 - B + 4.64
213 - NY19 - B + 4.62
214 - CO08 - B + 4.55
215 - KS03 - B + 4.45
216 - NJ07 - B + 3.66
217 - OH13 - B + 2.82
218 - VA02 - B + 2.05
219 - MI08 - B + 2.03
220 - CA40 - B + 1.87
221 - NC13 - B + 1.69
222 - AZ01 - B + 1.48
223 - MI07 - B + 0.95
224 - PA07 - B + 0.62
225 - NY01 - B + 0.21
226 - AZ06 - B + 0.07
227 - FL27 - T + 0.32
228 - IA03 - T + 0.34
229 - MI10 - T + 0.98
230 - CA41 - T + 1.09

One thing that's interesting is that seat 211 (PA-17) is nearly Biden + 6 which is pretty blue and to the left of the nation but after that the seats drop off for Dems very quickly and by seat 218 you're at Biden + 2. However, after that the list slows down again and you have quite a lot of seats that were extremely close in the 2020 pres race.

We could also have a systematic Polling Error. In 2016, 2018 and 2020 every single time Pollsters undercounted the Shy Trump Vote.

As far as the Senate goes yes Models are showing Democrats with a good lead BUT when you look at WI, GA, NV there are all within the MOE. They can easily go the other way.
If you look at 2014 for example Races in IA, CO, NC started to swing in the Final 2 Weeks of the Campaign.

In 2018, the final generic ballot average on 538 was D+8.6.  And the actual national House vote was….D+8.6.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/generic-ballot/2018/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections

I think it’s more likely that if we see a systemic polling error this year, it will be underestimating Dem support.  The lower-propensity voters that polls are less likely to catch this time around will be younger women motivated by Dobbs.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

It seems there is a pretty odd reason why 538's House projections has not budged at all in the last few weeks despite Dem's improving poll numbers.

Over the last two weeks, 538's projected House popular vote -has- improved for Dems, from R+4.1 to R+3.4 today.

However, at the same time, their projected popular vote threshold at which Dems are favored to retain control has also fallen, from R+0.6 to R+0.1 today.  

I can't really figure out why this second quantity would change, unless 538 somehow decided it was absurd that they were showing a slight seats/votes bias in favor of Dems, and changed their model in response.

[Sir Mohamed]

GOP chances to take the senate are down to 32 in 100 at 538's website. House is also down to 76 in 100, coming from 78. So Dems have a nearly 70% shot at holding the senate now.

[GeorgiaModerate]

538 has released an interactive tool that lets you pick the outcome of individual Senate and House races and see the effect on the chances of overall control.  Have fun.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-flip-senate-house/

[Brittain33]

Can anyone explain why you can declare all Senate races and end up with a 1% chance of a different result?

[new_patomic]

538 has released an interactive tool that lets you pick the outcome of individual Senate and House races and see the effect on the chances of overall control.  Have fun.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-flip-senate-house/

538's continued aversion to just using maps is frustrating.

But that being said there are some interesting assumptions baked in.

If Dems win just AZ and NH, it shifts GA to Lean-Dem.

If you set it so Ryan wins in Ohio it basically pegs the House at 50/50.

But if Demmings beats Rubio, it's House is 60/40 favored for Dems.

If you have a 52-48 Senate with Democrats picking up PA and WI, House odds are 34/66 for Republicans.

Of the toss-up house seats they list, there's basically a 3 way tie between which they see as having the most predictive value; Democrats winning one of NC-13, CO-08, or PA-7 all move their odds o fa majority up from 24/76 to 45/55 putting the Republicans at around 219 seats.

[Minnesota Mike]

I realize Alaska's top 4 system does not fit smoothly into 538's model but shouldn't the Peltola at least be listed as a candidate instead of just Palin and Begich?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

538 has released an interactive tool that lets you pick the outcome of individual Senate and House races and see the effect on the chances of overall control.  Have fun.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-flip-senate-house/

Neat.