Election models megathread

[wbrocks67]

My guess is the model has the GOP doing significantly better in the Senate than one expects, ah least relative to the House forecast.

Statistically, the senate and house predictions by pundits don’t rlly align because many pundits are treating races in Biden + 0/1 states as true tossups while Biden + 1 House seat is immediately written off as an R win. I suspect the model for instance will have a similar rating for Senate seats like AZ/GA/PA with House seats like IA-03/TX-15/VA-02

the URL literally says - why-republicans-are-favored-to-win-the-house-but-not-the-senate/

[wbrocks67]

>The Senate is a toss-up

F**k off, Nate.

It gets worse at the individual level, where they project that Democrats are narrowly ahead in AZ, NV, PA and perhaps GA (in that last state, they show Warnock with a positive margin of victory but have his odds of winning in Republican colours, which could be a formatting error but is more likely a prediction of a Republican victory distorted by potential Warnock NUT maps).

I mean, I don't see this as totally unbelievable? Dems have strong chances in all of those states and I think Rs at a 53% chance of taking the senate (and 87% in the house) both sound pretty correct at this point in time...

[wbrocks67]

538 is a deeply unserious pundit org that has been extremely wrong about the last 3 major elections. There is no scenario where Kelly and Fetterman are favored while the national House PV is R+8! It is impossible!

to be fair, in the deluxe version, Fetterman and Oz are basically tied. he's only up in the two other models that are more poll/money/etc focused

i don't see how that's impossible though? candidate quality matters.

[wbrocks67]

MI-3 (Meijer, Biden +9): "Likely R", 90% chance of GOP hold
MI-10 (open, Trump +1): "Lean R", 73% chance of GOP hold

WI-GOV (Biden +<1): "Lean D", 64% chance of DEM hold
OR-GOV (Biden +16): "Lean D", 63% chance of DEM hold

Ok.

IDK about the first set, but the second set isn't a good comparison. WI has a dem incumbent running. OR is an open seat with a deeply unpopular governor (and the house majority leader is the dem nominee - at least somewhat tied to that governor), there is also an independent who has strong financial backing running named Betsy Johnson. She is a democrat turned independent who will take a lot of votes - though it's unclear from who. She is backed by Phil Knight (NIKE) and as I am visiting my family in Oregon since early June, Betsy Johnson has absolutely bombarded the airwaves with ads, with nothing from Tina Kotek or Drazan so far (I'm in Salem). So basically, it is very uncertain.

Evers is also a (somewhat) unpopular governor who only won by a point in a D+9 tidal wave. He's obviously more vulnerable than Kotek to anyone who doesn't worship fake "polls".

(Not like Kotek is safe or Evers is DOA)

Citation?  Evers has had net positive favorability in the last few polls that I recall seeing it in.

MTE. The public polls we've gotten all have Evers at positive fav/approval.

[wbrocks67]

GOP with a 45-seat margin? Yeah I don't think so.

[wbrocks67]

^^^i would assume just a consequence of the primary not being settled yet

[wbrocks67]

It's odd that they're acting as if Dobbs hasn't changed the landscape when it's very clear that it has, and it seems especially borne out in Senate polling, and the GCB. Republicans were up nearly 3% in the average before Dobbs, and now the Ds are nearly going to take over. The fact that they keep pushing house races to the R side is interesting, and seems to go against what's actually happening here.

[wbrocks67]

It's odd that they're acting as if Dobbs hasn't changed the landscape when it's very clear that it has, and it seems especially borne out in Senate polling, and the GCB. Republicans were up nearly 3% in the average before Dobbs, and now the Ds are nearly going to take over. The fact that they keep pushing house races to the R side is interesting, and seems to go against what's actually happening here.

The thing I don’t get is when I read these polls abortion still ranks fairly low on most voters minds of importance WAY behind the economy. Also I would imagine any single issue abortion voters would’ve already voted D, so what else could be behind a shift towards the democrats?

Not true - many polls have recently shown abortion to be a very salient issue. It was the top issue in the WA poll and the #2 issue in the IA Cygnal poll. Even todays Suffolk/USA Today had Economy at 20% and then Abortion at #2 at 16% as top issues.

[wbrocks67]

We're literally about to enter a recession, all fundamentals point to a red wave and all these Demohacks can come up with is "muh Dobbs" and "muh summer polls". Gets old.

Other than it being a midterm in a Democratic presidency, what exact fundamentals point to a red wave?

Because all the actual tangibles (fundraising, polling, etc.) do not point to that. Not to mention, SC ripping away rights from an incredibly popular precedence is not a fundamental that points that way.

Also the "recession" situation is a lot more complicated, than say, 2008's situation, so it's not some blanket albatross around Dems neck.

Use some critical thinking skills next time.

[wbrocks67]

Why is it that switching from the Deluxe to Classic model on 538 dramatically improves Dem’s chances of holding the Senate, but has absolutely no effect on their chances of holding the House?

Different polling results.

But the polls included in both versions of the model are the same, right?

Senate version is based on all separate senate results (i guess with maybe a tiny % of GCB results), but the House version is primarily based on the GCB i believe (and of course any random house polls they may get)

[wbrocks67]

The slew of good polls for Warnock over the last few days have...improved Walker's chances in the Deluxe model? Classic remains the way to go.

MTE lmao. Warnock has now led in even more polls now, with higher margins, than again the single Walker poll that had him up 2. Yet Walker *still* is at 51% chance in Deluxe. Their model for that state makes no sense.

[wbrocks67]

The problem with models. I don't expect Democrats to win MN-01 or NE-01 but c'mon.

538 Deluxe

MN-01: Finstad 98%, projected pop vote 57.1 - 39.1.

NE-01: Flood 98%, projected pop vote 58.9 - 41.1.

Yikes, the House model definitely has some quirks about it but those are some of the more worse examples I've seen.

[wbrocks67]

IDK, the DDHQ election model seems kind of sloppy. They seem to be missing quite a bit of polling in different races.

[wbrocks67]

IDK, the DDHQ election model seems kind of sloppy. They seem to be missing quite a bit of polling in different races.

At least they fixed the MN-05 and FL-24 problems. Overall it doesn't seem too bad and seems like what you'd expect if 2022 ends up being a pretty solid R wave. My only gripe is that they weight incumbency a bit too mcuh in such a polarized era.

Yeah, they have the House at 234-201 right now..... 538's 230-205 seems a bit more realistic.

[wbrocks67]

red wave cancelled

https://twitter.com/FaceTheNation/status/1563322406541803522

[wbrocks67]

Okay, I’m still guessing Ron Johnson wins, but how on earth does DDHQ still have him as a 93% favorite, and have Wisconsin as less likely to flip than Florida or Ohio? If they have Rubio’s chances at just 84%, “muh incumbency” doesn’t explain it.

Honestly their model is a mess. They also don't weigh their polls either, so strong swings happen. They posted today how "their polling average for PA went from Fetterman +8.6 to +4.9" so now it's a tossup.

[wbrocks67]

It's getting harder to square up 538's deluxe house forecast with the GCB.

GCB is now D+1.2 (44.7-43.5) and Democratic odds actually *dropped* back to down to 24% today.

[wbrocks67]

The Economist finally has their model online: https://www.economist.com/interactive/us-midterms-2022.

Senate: 78% D

House: 74% R

Interesting, it's a bit more bullish on Demings, Ryan, and Beasley than I would've expected. Only a bit bearish on Barnes, but that's to be expected.

[wbrocks67]

Their house prediction right now is 223-212 in GOP's favor. I could definitely buy that right now.

[wbrocks67]

Current House forecast:

Economist: R 221.5 - D 213.5
538: R 224 - D 211
YouGov: R 223 - D 212

[wbrocks67]

I'm a bit confused on the NC-SEN model in 538. We keep getting more and more tied polls of the race and yet the model has been drifting away from Beasley. If the race keeps being tied even until Election Day, why is it not moving - towards - Beasley a bit?

It seem NC is the most off from the polling average right now to the 538 forecast (tied in polls but Budd +3 final result)

[wbrocks67]

The CBS model actually has D+1 in the GCB among RVs.

However, in the article they explain that they model that <45 year olds only will make up 25% of the electorate, hence the LV model showing R+2 then.

They have a tool that shows a GOP turnout surge and if <45 year olds vote at 2018 levels. Seems more likely that LV models are not picking up "less likely" young voters imo.

[wbrocks67]

Noticing a Trend in the Biden JA in Battleground Senate Races

NC - 38 %
OH - 39 %

Terrible!!!

39% for Ohio is believable, 38% for NC is a bit extreme.

Biden's average approval is about -8/9 right now on 538, and Ohio was 12% to the left of the nation. So you'd expect it to be about -20 right now given that. So his -17 approval in Ohio right now is actually a bit better than you'd expect, given that.

[wbrocks67]

538 has Democrats' odds of holding the Senate at 63%, which is their lowest number since August 23rd. It's a bit odd because the Classic and Light versions of the model still have their odds higher - 70% and 75% respectively, and the models (I think) are supposed to converge by election day, although the other models also have Democrats' chances decreasing over the last couple of weeks. But I'm not really sure what could be driving the Deluxe model specifically to be so bearish on their chances when I think the only difference it has with the Classic model is experts' ratings and I don't remember any huge shifts in the ratings to Republicans in recent weeks, just maybe a few bad polls which should show up in the other models too.

I think it's probably the culmination of NV getting super tight in the model, and the GOP chances in OH, NC, and WI increasing. Since AZ and PA haven't really changed much, nor has NH, and of course GA has gotten better for Dems.