Election models megathread

[Xing]

As expected, it’s too favorable for Democrats, but pretty much any model that factors in polling is going to have the same problem, and “adjusting” polls by the same amount for each state isn’t going to make the model better, since polling has been much consistently further off (in the same direction) in IA/MO/OH than in CO/NV/TX.

[Xing]

Okay, I’m still guessing Ron Johnson wins, but how on earth does DDHQ still have him as a 93% favorite, and have Wisconsin as less likely to flip than Florida or Ohio? If they have Rubio’s chances at just 84%, “muh incumbency” doesn’t explain it.

[Xing]

This is likely a rounding error but lol.

There’s a 1% chance that Wisconsin will just give a participation award to both of them.

[Xing]

538 has Dems now at a 70 in 100 chance to keep the senate. House is down 74 in 100 for the GOP.

I find it hilarious that 538 writes Dems are "slighty favored" to take the senate with a 68 in 100 chance while the GOP is "favored" to take the House with a 75 in 100 chance. Come on, 68 and 75 isn't that far apart. Poor framing.

I believe they use 70% as the dividing line between those two categories.

They're still saying "slightly favored" now, with 70-30. The GOP is still "favored" at 74-26. LOL.

Maybe they’re at 69.8%, and 70.0% is the cutoff?