2020 Absentee/Early Voting megathread 2

[Bootes Void]

Why all the bad news about Florida? It's all turnout and getting Dems to return their ballots

[Bootes Void]

FLORIDA


5,210,532 votes cast (mail + in-person EV)

Democratic: 2,262,736 (43.4%)
Republican: 1,873,912 (36.0%)
NPA/Other: 1,073,884 (20.6%)

Dem lead decreases to 388,824

~504,920 ballots were processed today

All I see is things speeding up for both parties. From this thread you would think Trump would win by 5% 2004 style

[Bootes Void]

Has Wisconsin updated itself, haven't seen much movement in VBM

[Bootes Void]

Yeah, Dems need to get those Miami numbers up. Can't Pitbull hold an event or something?

They had Luis fonsi in Central Florida and played despacito but people complained that it was cheasy or pandering

[Bootes Void]

Yup Florida is over. Biden campaign needs to swallow their pride and circle the wagons in WI, PA, and MI. Hopefully nationwide protests after election day can buy enough time for those states to count before the Supreme Court steps in.

Stop

[Bootes Void]

To take some red avatars off the ledge in FLA:

From St. Pete Polls -

We continue to poll down ballot races individually to give us a better sense of the statewide.

Trump is down in our polls by so much in Pinellas and Sarasota and Seminole, I want to know where he is picking up votes.

might be picking up votes in miami and doing very strong in rural and non metro florida to the same level as 2016.

[Bootes Void]

Biden has a greater shot at winning Florida than NC or Georgia. dont focus too much on EV or trying to analyze this stuff. Also the biden campaign has people all over the place

[Bootes Void]

I've heard early voting shows that Trump will win Florida, since Republicans are about to overtake Democrats.

[Bootes Void]

TargetSmart is garbage, how would they know how did early voters vote?

[Bootes Void]

2020 turnout is going to blow past 2016 in most states.

Try all states fairly decisively

[Bootes Void]

Wow! Could Biden still have a slim chance in Florida?
https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1320515676520566790?s=21

Souls to the polls and Dems finally stop procrastinating.

Also why are you are saying it like Biden is an underdog in Florida, he is probably a favourite in Florida for the time being

[Bootes Void]

Madison, Wisconsin will probably pass 100,00 votes either tomorrow or Tuesday (depending on the mail).

https://twitter.com/madisonwiclerk/status/1320536948067520514?s=21

Madison’s numbers actually seem quite low to me. 112K is only 60% of registered voters, I would have suspected every last voter in Madison to be out voting since its Titanium D.

60% of registered voters is pretty good. This doesn't include those who may vote in person or on election. Day

[Bootes Void]

Interesting link - Bloomberg's data company estimates Biden is up by 11 in Florida with modeled vote so far - or over 600k votes.

https://www.hawkfish.us/early-vote-florida/fl-102520

that looks good for trump imo with the remaining votes outstanding for him to move the needle based on this

I don't think everyone in the yet to vote will be voting as thereigjt be atleast 1 to 2 million of those who will be abstaining

[Bootes Void]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1320725306743922688?s=21 back to the slaughter

Once again, Dems have a +355K lead with one week left. Reps are going to be needing a lot more than a +6K lead to move that needle.

it’s 6k at 10am.  It’s gonna be 30k-40k by EOD

It won't be enough probably when you include mail ballots that would cut into that

[Bootes Void]

https://twitter.com/yougovamerica/status/1320833152429031425?s=21

Could be 70% by next week's anyways there will always be a lag in counting

[Bootes Void]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1320828588820697088?s=21 Y’all were so mad this morning when I said a 50k day was in store.
I’m

308,000 lead for the democrats
7 more full days (Tue, wed, thurs, friday, sat, sun, mon) of 50,000 republican
50,000 x 7 = 350,000 votes for In person for the republican party if we continue days like this!
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17YKazYaUMZ33vmd4YHDKcVdlTkP5DmnHQQlAttwOzL0/htmlview?pru=AAABdWY-2lM*RELmuWopShoDq9-h3Bl_Tw#

So that means that republicans have a chance at pulling ahead even with the mail vote advantage the democrats had. lol

You gotta VBM as well, not just in-person.

[Bootes Void]

Lots of new voters and infrequent voters
https://twitter.com/electionsmith/status/1320099542784770048

[Bootes Void]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1321155340902301697

Florida in-person EV Day 9 (2:10 PM UPDATE)

Rep 78,518  (+35,335)
Dem 43,183
NPA/Other 36,905
Total 158,606

Cumulative total

Rep 1,254,287  (+350,490)
Dem 903,797
NPA/Other 533,621
Total 2,691,705

What's the VBM total?

VBM Returned Total

Rep 1,237,588
Dem 1,854,723 (+617,135)
NPA(&O) 874,350
Total 3,966,661

Has VBM slowed down, also does VBM speed up in the final week?

[Bootes Void]

Has VBM slowed down, also does VBM speed up in the final week?

 Vote by mail doesn't come in hourly updates. It has to be received, processed(checked for signature and integrity) and then it's released usually in tranches. There are still a lot of outstanding VBM ballots for Democrats and Republicans and a portion of mail ballots are never "returned". The problem is with Dejoy's USPS leadership playing stupid games, who knows where these ballots are.

 In 2016 Democrats had 1,049,809 ballots returned and 265,120 unreturned
             Republcians had 1,108,053 ballots retuned and 201,144 unreturned

 From following Florida elections Democrats usually have a higher percentage of unreturned ballots for some reason.

Dejoy is definitely engaging in suppression. Anyways, If people have mailed in their ballots and havent gotten a notice of approval or havent mailed it in yet by this friday, they should do round the clock calls to get them to vote in person otherwise their vote may not count

[Bootes Void]

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/1321186446838009860

Nice

[Bootes Void]

Republicans ahead in early voting in Michigan and Wisconsin.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-elections/wisconsin-results

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-elections/michigan-results

TargetSmart?

[Bootes Void]

Honestly if there is a 100 million votes before election day then 150 million votes total may be too conservative. Its possible we may see up to 160 million and maybe 165 million at this point

[Bootes Void]

Already at 75 million, we could see 100 million before Tuesday
https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/1321541547226255365

[Bootes Void]

According to Ralston, If Dems win Clark atleast by 10 and Washoe or come close to it, Nevada will easily be in the D column

[Bootes Void]

There is 42 million outstanding mail ballots according to elect project. I think some of them switched to inperson