2020 Absentee/Early Voting megathread 2

[wbrocks67]

There's no reason to believe that Election Day will be even more R though, when many of those Rs could easily be voting now in Early Voting, especially with turnout going over 2016's EV.

Not to mention, NPAs broke Trumps way in 2016, but if they break Biden's way this year, which it appears they are based on most polls, that changes everything.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1321135704190177282?s=21
https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1321135725060988928?s=21

So let's assume (HUGE assumption) that Rs gain ~40-50k per day through the rest of the week. That would mean Ds still end up with roughly a 50-100k vote lead in registration, right?

In 2016 Ds had a ~50k deficit but won the EV by ~250k. So if they're at a 50-100k lead, they'd probably be ahead by more like 400-500k in actual votes heading into ED voting, right?

That doesn't seem bad for Ds, but also it's worth pointing out that indications are ED voting will be more R-skewed than in prior years due to more Ds voting early / by mail than in most years compared to Rs. So whereas Trump won ED voting by ~375k in 2016, he will probably win it by more this year.

Overall Florida seems very toss-up / tilt Rish based on these numbers, which kind of just confirms most prior assumptions. It'll probably be 2012-close either way, and in a similar vein it probably will not impact the final outcome of the election.

I'm pretty sure Democrats will win the early vote on Sunday given what counties will be open (mainly the big ones). Also, historically African Americans tend to vote later in the process or on election day. So are probably waiting on that.

[mijan]

IA-1 57.48% active Dems  have voted
       37.17% active Reps have voted
Active Dems in IA-1
181,326
Active Reps in IA-1
155,240

[wbrocks67]

Iowa early voting stats updated.
Dems are ahead by 136484 votes
Total 783310 people have voted early, which is 50% of 2016 turnout.

IA-1 D leads R by 104,228-57,695  , D+ 46533
IA-2 D leads R by 105,290-58,198 , D+ 47092
IA-3 D leads R by 107,207-61,558, D+ 45649
IA-4 R leads D by  72,132-69292, R+2840
 
IA state
D 386,017
R 249,583


In Iowa 930317 people have requested absentee ballots.
445,632 Dems have requested absentee ballots.
297,057 Reps have requested absentee ballots.

https://sos.iowa.gov/elections/pdf/2020/general/AbsenteeCongressional2020.pdf

Wow, big turnout. Ds at 87% return rate, Rs at 84%. Dems really keeping the lead here until the end.

[mijan]

Iowa early voting stats updated.
Dems are ahead by 136484 votes
Total 783310 people have voted early, which is 50% of 2016 turnout.

IA-1 D leads R by 104,228-57,695  , D+ 46533
IA-2 D leads R by 105,290-58,198 , D+ 47092
IA-3 D leads R by 107,207-61,558, D+ 45649
IA-4 R leads D by  72,132-69292, R+2840
 
IA state
D 386,017
R 249,583


In Iowa 930317 people have requested absentee ballots.
445,632 Dems have requested absentee ballots.
297,057 Reps have requested absentee ballots.

https://sos.iowa.gov/elections/pdf/2020/general/AbsenteeCongressional2020.pdf

Wow, big turnout. Ds at 87% return rate, Rs at 84%. Dems really keeping the lead here until the end.

In 2012 288 k Dems had voted early
Now 386 k Dems have voted early and we have 1 more week.
In 2012 Dems lead was 68k
Today Dems lead is over 136k

With COVID situation in IA, Reps may not get huge election day turnout.

[GP270watch]

So let's assume (HUGE assumption) that Rs gain ~40-50k per day through the rest of the week. That would mean Ds still end up with roughly a 50-100k vote lead in registration, right?


That doesn't seem bad for Ds, but also it's worth pointing out that indications are ED voting will be more R-skewed than in prior years due to more Ds voting early / by mail than in most years compared to Rs. So whereas Trump won ED voting by ~375k in 2016, he will probably win it by more this year.

 People are throwing out a lot of incorrect Florida numbers, please stop. All this info is available on the Florida SOS elections website.

 In 2016 Clinton had a 96k lead by party id(Democrats), but after the election we could figure out she actually won the early voting by around 250k but Trump had a huge election day turnout of around 360k and won the state by 112,911.

 2020 is different because the voting methods have switched. Some of the mail in ballots won't be counted. Many mail in ballots are still yet to show up and be counted. Democrats will probably not get blown out in the weekend so you can't assume anything.

 For Trump there are a lot of traditional GOP voters who only vote on election day because that's the only way they've ever voted. Pandemic or not that's not gonna change. There is still a lot of GOP vote to come.

 The variables are if Biden is doing even better in the early vote than Clinton and if he can withstand a surge from Trump by winning more No Party Affiliation voters. The variables for Trump are increased Republican voter registration and many signs on the ground that Miami Cubans are embracing him more than 2016.

 Florida is a fight like always.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Steve Schale's blog post on Florida if anyone is interested

https://twitter.com/steveschale/status/1321125538849763330?s=20

This bit was hilarious:

Dade County.    It is important to remember for those who are tweeting at me about Dade that is basically a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma, stuffed into a empanada, doused with hot sauce, and barreling down I-95 at 90mph in a Honda Civic in the emergency lane with the driver leaning out the window holding a couch that is tied to nothing yet somehow balancing on the car roof in a driving rain storm with no windshield wipers, or functioning turn signals.

[UncleSam]

There's no reason to believe that Election Day will be even more R though, when many of those Rs could easily be voting now in Early Voting, especially with turnout going over 2016's EV.

Not to mention, NPAs broke Trumps way in 2016, but if they break Biden's way this year, which it appears they are based on most polls, that changes everything.

Um...every single poll we've seen indicates Trump is winning the ED vote by a lot, certainly more than he did in 2016. This goes across pretty much all states surveyed. It also makes sense given that Ds disproportionately requested mail-in ballots compared to Rs and Ds generally have a much more favorable view of early / mail-in voting than Rs do.

The NPAs point is confusing to me. Hillary won by more actual votes than the registration gap would've indicated (-50k vs 250k actual lead), so clearly NPAs broke her way in 2016. Are you saying they are likely to break more towards Biden this year? That certainly seems possible, but what then would be your estimate for actual vote lead for Biden going into ED if Dems have a 100k registration advantage vs. a 2016 50k registration disadvantage? I cited 400-500k actual vote lead, but I suppose it could be more if Biden is winning by enough among NPAs and is winning some Rs.

[mijan]

IA-2 57.78% active Dems have voted so far
       37.04% active Reps have voted so far
In IA-2
Active Dems 182364
Active Reps 157099

[wbrocks67]

There's no reason to believe that Election Day will be even more R though, when many of those Rs could easily be voting now in Early Voting, especially with turnout going over 2016's EV.

Not to mention, NPAs broke Trumps way in 2016, but if they break Biden's way this year, which it appears they are based on most polls, that changes everything.

Um...every single poll we've seen indicates Trump is winning the ED vote by a lot, certainly more than he did in 2016. This goes across pretty much all states surveyed. It also makes sense given that Ds disproportionately requested mail-in ballots compared to Rs and Ds generally have a much more favorable view of early / mail-in voting than Rs do.

The NPAs point is confusing to me. Hillary won by more actual votes than the registration gap would've indicated (-50k vs 250k actual lead), so clearly NPAs broke her way in 2016. Are you saying they are likely to break more towards Biden this year? That certainly seems possible, but what then would be your estimate for actual vote lead for Biden going into ED if Dems have a 100k registration advantage vs. a 2016 50k registration disadvantage? I cited 400-500k actual vote lead, but I suppose it could be more if Biden is winning by enough among NPAs and is winning some Rs.

We're not talking about all states. We're talking about FL which has a robust early turnout. It's just as possible Reps are cannibalizing their ED vote in FL with in-person early voting.

As for indies, what i'm saying is Trump won indies in 2016 in FL by 4%. All polls have Biden winning them now. So it's not an apples to comparison with the Dem/Rep edge b/c NPAs are probably going for Biden now vs Trump in 2016

[wbrocks67]

Pennsylvania hits 30% of 2016 total turnout.

Dems 1,275,436 (68.9%)
Reps 394,408 (21.3%)
Other 180,556 (9.7%)
= 1,850,400

Dems have +881K lead. Was +839K yesterday. Dems at 66% return rate, Reps at 50%.

[Blair]

Can this be pinned to any posts about Florida- the best I've read for months on it.

Steve Schale's blog post on Florida if anyone is interested

https://twitter.com/steveschale/status/1321125538849763330?s=20

[mijan]

IA-3 54.41% active Dems have voted so far
       33.40% active Reps have voted so far
Active Dems in IA-3
197004
Active Reps in IA-3
184256

[mijan]

Pennsylvania hits 30% of 2016 total turnout.

Dems 1,275,436 (68.9%)
Reps 394,408 (21.3%)
Other 180,556 (9.7%)
= 1,850,400

Dems have +881K lead. Was +839K yesterday. Dems at 66% return rate, Reps at 50%.

Great going, it will be nice if we can take over 1 million early vote lead.

[mijan]

IA-4  53.48% active Dems have voted
        34.89% active Reps have voted
In IA-4
Active Dems 129557
Active Reps 206741

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1321042229838909441

I found this Newsweek article

https://www.newsweek.com/trump-tweets-can-i-change-my-vote-election-1542364

It says New York, Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Connecticut and Mississippi (and maybe others?) have a way to do it.

In Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, and Arizona you cannot.

lol this reeks of desperation of someone who knows he's far behind. i can smell the stench from here.

Having one of your closing themes being "remember you can change your vote!!!"  is not what a candidate who thinks they're winning goes with.

[mijan]

In IA state
55.92% active Dems have already voted
35.48% active Reps have already voted

In IA
Active Dems are 690251
Active Reps are 703336

64.57% active IA Dems have requested for early ballots
42.23% active IA Reps have requested for early ballots.

[Non Swing Voter]

Regarding Florida early voting it says:

"Early voting is required in any election that contains a state or federal office race. The early voting period must start at least on the 10th day before the election and end on the 3rd day before the election. In addition, supervisors of elections have the option to offer more early voting on the 15th, 14th, 13th, 12th, 11th, or 2nd day before an election."

https://dos.myflorida.com/elections/for-voters/voting/early-voting/

So there's what?  5 days of in person early voting left at most?  So it's highly unlikely the GOP catches up on pre-election day votes (not that this is the correct metric to follow but writing this for the bedwetters).  Even if Republicans gain each of those 5 days, Democratic ballots will come in the other 2 days so Dems should have a lead on those days if everything stays the same.

There's five days (including today) left in Republican counties and six days left in Democratic counties — blacks vote on the Sunday before the election, which is why the state makes that day optional.

Dems are going to definitely end the early period with a lead then.  Between that and absentee ballots. 

Dem turnout is already at 51.8% btw.

[Storr]

yesterday's total + 21,000 = 89.35% of 2016 turnout.

They're going to reach 90% later today (if they haven't already) and 100% before early voting ends Friday. (If Harris County has at least yesterday's turnout of 58,602 each day through Friday, they'll clear 1.4 million votes!)

https://twitter.com/HarrisVotes/status/1321137719834234881?s=20

[Rep Jessica]

6,658,366 have now voted in Florida, which is more than the pre election day total in 2016 (6,607,004)

[Rep Jessica]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1321155340902301697

Florida in-person EV Day 9 (2:10 PM UPDATE)

Rep 78,518  (+35,335)
Dem 43,183
NPA/Other 36,905
Total 158,606

Cumulative total

Rep 1,254,287  (+350,490)
Dem 903,797
NPA/Other 533,621
Total 2,691,705

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1321155340902301697

Florida in-person EV Day 9 (2:10 PM UPDATE)

Rep 78,518  (+35,335)
Dem 43,183
NPA/Other 36,905
Total 158,606

Cumulative total

Rep 1,254,287  (+350,490)
Dem 903,797
NPA/Other 533,621
Total 2,691,705

What's the VBM total?

[GP270watch]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1321155340902301697

Florida in-person EV Day 9 (2:10 PM UPDATE)

Rep 78,518  (+35,335)
Dem 43,183
NPA/Other 36,905
Total 158,606

Cumulative total

Rep 1,254,287  (+350,490)
Dem 903,797
NPA/Other 533,621
Total 2,691,705

What's the VBM total?

VBM Returned Total

Rep 1,237,588
Dem 1,854,723 (+617,135)
NPA(&O) 874,350
Total 3,966,661

[Bootes Void]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1321155340902301697

Florida in-person EV Day 9 (2:10 PM UPDATE)

Rep 78,518  (+35,335)
Dem 43,183
NPA/Other 36,905
Total 158,606

Cumulative total

Rep 1,254,287  (+350,490)
Dem 903,797
NPA/Other 533,621
Total 2,691,705

What's the VBM total?

VBM Returned Total

Rep 1,237,588
Dem 1,854,723 (+617,135)
NPA(&O) 874,350
Total 3,966,661

Has VBM slowed down, also does VBM speed up in the final week?

[GP270watch]

Has VBM slowed down, also does VBM speed up in the final week?

 Vote by mail doesn't come in hourly updates. It has to be received, processed(checked for signature and integrity) and then it's released usually in tranches. There are still a lot of outstanding VBM ballots for Democrats and Republicans and a portion of mail ballots are never "returned". The problem is with Dejoy's poor USPS leadership playing stupid and criminal games, who knows where these ballots are.

 In 2016 Democrats had 1,049,809 ballots returned and 265,120 unreturned
             Republcians had 1,108,053 ballots retuned and 201,144 unreturned

 From following Florida elections Democrats usually have a higher percentage of unreturned ballots for some reason.