2020 Absentee/Early Voting megathread 2

[Tintrlvr]

Interesting, I would have thought the Indy vote was more D than that based on Sinema's overall 2% statewide win. I guess this means that that there is more crossover voting by Rs than by Ds in AZ, given the traditional R registration advantage.

Any idea how independents will be voting there?  I'd assume they lean Democrat but you never know.

Based on exit polls, Trump & Sinema won independents by 3%. Trump & McSally also both got 47%

Self-ID’d independents in polls/exit polls aren’t the same group as registered independents, for what it’s worth. The latter group tends to be more Democratic-leaning than the former.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

I was gonna hold off on the TX early vote updates today, since there didn't seem to be much movement. But I don't think it'd hurt.

I'll also be changing up the format as we get into the extra week of early voting. I'll simply be printing the updated totals & turnout, plus how the vote totals compare to the 2016 & 2018 total vote counts.

Day 13 of early voting in Texas (In-person + VBM) (October 25)


HARRIS COUNTY (Houston)                          1,090,445    44.0%    2016:  83.1%   2018:  90.3%
FORT BEND COUNTY (Houston suburbs)         245,916    51.0%    2016:  93.8%   2018:  96.3%
MONTGOMERY COUNTY (Houston suburbs)    177,138    47.9%    2016:  86.6%   2018:  93.2%
GALVESTON COUNTY (Houston suburbs)        111,053    48.6%    2016:  90.4%   2018:  97.7%

DALLAS COUNTY (Dallas)                                601,332    43.0%    2016:  79.2%   2018:  82.6%
TARRANT COUNTY (Fort Worth)                     538,174    44.4%     2016:  80.5%   2018:  85.7%
COLLIN COUNTY (Dallas suburbs)                  355,710    54.8%     2016:  98.4%   2018:  99.9%
DENTON COUNTY (Dallas suburbs)                 299,881    53.1%   2016:  100.4%  2018: 101.4%

BEXAR COUNTY (San Antonio)                    510,894    43.0%    2016:  86.6%   2018:  93.0%

TRAVIS COUNTY (Austin)                               427,071    49.9%     2016:  91.1%   2018:  88.2%
WILLIAMSON COUNTY (Austin suburbs)       205,234    54.5%    2016: 101.1%    2018:  98.6%
HAYS COUNTY (Austin suburbs)                      74,808    49.0%    2016: 103.7%    2018:  93.8%

EL PASO COUNTY (El Paso)                        168,447    34.5%     2016:  78.7%    2018:  82.7%

HIDALGO COUNTY (Rio Grande Valley)         140,499    35.9%     2016:  81.0%    2018:  92.6%
NUECES COUNTY (Corpus Christi)                   85,674    40.5%     2016:  82.1%    2018:  91.1%
CAMERON COUNTY (Rio Grande Valley)          72,846    33.3%     2016:  79.1%    2018:  93.5

The Austin metro raw number turnout increase is going to be f#cking insane, and that is not good news at all for Trump (or Nate Cohn’s polling reputation).

Also, Harris at 45k on day without mail counts included and two hours to go! They just need about 62k a day to hit 1.4 million before Election Day!

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1320839567516160001

Does anyone know what the Republican lead was in Maricopa County in 2018 by election day? Obviously it wasn't enough.

[Non Swing Voter]

"About 1.95 million Virginians have voted in person or by mail, according to state data — nearly half the total number who turned out for the 2016 contest."

"Almost 7 in 10 (69 percent) of those who cast an early ballot this year say they voted for Biden, while roughly a quarter (24 percent) say they voted for President Trump in the survey, conducted Oct. 13 to 19. Biden also leads with 65 percent support among likely voters who said they plan to vote early but haven’t yet, while the president leads (59 percent to 35 percent) among voters who plan to vote on Election Day."

https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/virginia-early-voters-favor-biden/2020/10/26/1fe18d54-154d-11eb-bc10-40b25382f1be_story.html

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Does anyone know what the Republican lead was in Maricopa County in 2018 by election day? Obviously it wasn't enough.

This was from the morning prior to Election Day

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1059524470979739648?s=20
GOP      413,398   42.3%
Dem     319,709   32.7%
NPP      236,538   24.2%

[JerryArkansas]

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1320839567516160001

Does anyone know what the Republican lead was in Maricopa County in 2018 by election day? Obviously it wasn't enough.

It was about 7%, so around 80 thousand.  I also remember the freakout here that she was blowing it too because of that lead.

[wbrocks67]

Does anyone know what the Republican lead was in Maricopa County in 2018 by election day? Obviously it wasn't enough.

This was from the morning prior to Election Day

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1059524470979739648?s=20
GOP      413,398   42.3%
Dem     319,709   32.7%
NPP      236,538   24.2%

Wow. If Dems are still leading Maricopa by Election Day, those Biden +5-7 AZ polls may be correct.

[Rep Jessica]

UMichVoter
@umichvoter99
50% of registered dems have now voted in Florida

that is 2,648,984 voters

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1320839567516160001

Does anyone know what the Republican lead was in Maricopa County in 2018 by election day? Obviously it wasn't enough.

It was about 7%, so around 80 thousand.  I also remember the freakout here that she was blowing it too because of that lead.

Maricopa is starting to have a reverse Kentucky/West Virginia vibe to it.

[Non Swing Voter]

UMichVoter
@umichvoter99
50% of registered dems have now voted in Florida

that is 2,648,984 voters

That's why I don't understand why Republicans here are cheering at these numbers.  The GOP will turn out, they always do but Democrats are clearly engaged as well.  If turnout is even it's doubtful Trump can win Florida given the polls. 

[forsythvoter]

Haha, FL always makes me chuckle. Feels like every election, both sides argue the early vote is favorable to them and it always ends up about 50/50. Bottom line is its a very complex states with a lot of constituencies that don't all move in unison, so you can always find reasons to be optimistic / pessimistic no matter which side you're on.

[Oryxslayer]

Haha, FL always makes me chuckle. Feels like every election, both sides argue the early vote is favorable to them and it always ends up about 50/50. Bottom line is its a very complex states with a lot of constituencies that don't all move in unison, so you can always find reasons to be optimistic / pessimistic no matter which side you're on.

Begone with your rationality, it's almost time to gloat about Texas!

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/doug_hanks/status/1320770512419774465

[wbrocks67]

CA hits 7 million, Dems increase their lead, and now have a nearly 10% return advantage. Dems at 38.2% return rate, Reps only 28.6%

[GeneralMacArthur]

https://twitter.com/doug_hanks/status/1320770512419774465

That would be huge for Dems, but on what basis are they making this prediction?

[GP270watch]

https://twitter.com/doug_hanks/status/1320770512419774465

That would be huge for Dems, but on what basis are they making this prediction?

 They probably have VBM ballots received but haven't processed all of them.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

https://www.ocregister.com/2016/11/01/early-voting-explodes-in-southern-california-with-most-casting-ballots-ahead-of-election-day/

This is one of the few articles I can find with any party turnout stats from California 4 years ago. Only two counties, but they're big and they're something. This article was from November 1


Orange County      2020     ~2016
Dem                     45%      32%
GOP                     26%       40%
Other                   29%       28%


Riverside County    2020     ~2016
Dem                     49%      40%
GOP                      31%      42%
Other                    20%      18%

[Bootes Void]

Lots of new voters and infrequent voters
https://twitter.com/electionsmith/status/1320099542784770048

[Ljube]

With so many new voters, Florida will be completely unpredictable.

[swf541]

With so many new voters, Florida will be completely unpredictable.

For once I actually 100% agree with you in this thread

[I Will Not Be Wrong]

A thread on FreeRepublic states that Republicans early vote has now passed Democrats? What the heck? (I read there for fun)

[Non Swing Voter]

Lots of new voters and infrequent voters
https://twitter.com/electionsmith/status/1320099542784770048

The 21% new white voters probably skew young too, so I'm not sure much of them are going for Trump.

[soundchaser]

A thread on FreeRepublic states that Republicans early vote has now passed Democrats? What the heck? (I read there for fun)

This is...very wrong, as far as I can tell?

According to Elect Project:

Democrats    14,657,980    49.0
Republicans    8,499,200    28.4
Minor    182,831    0.6
No Party Affiliation    6,555,672    21.9
TOTAL    29,895,683    100.0

[Non Swing Voter]

Dem Florida turnout = 50.3% now.

This is the most important number to keep track of there.

[I Will Not Be Wrong]

A thread on FreeRepublic states that Republicans early vote has now passed Democrats? What the heck? (I read there for fun)

This is...very wrong, as far as I can tell?

According to Elect Project:

Democrats    14,657,980    49.0
Republicans    8,499,200    28.4
Minor    182,831    0.6
No Party Affiliation    6,555,672    21.9
TOTAL    29,895,683    100.0

Thanks for info! I looked into it, and apparantly theyre basing off of TargetSmart numbers. (Which I have read here aren't reliable?)