2020 Absentee/Early Voting megathread 2

[Gass3268]

Black Seniors are turning out hard in the South:

https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/1320701753852047364?s=21

Don't quote TargetSmart.

When it comes to their modeled partisanship, I agree. When it stuff that comes straight out of the public (but sometimes costly) voter roll, they do good work.

[Flabuckeye]

Florida Turnout Tracker

Lighter day on Sunday, the journey continues...

Dem 48.2% (+2.2)
Rep  42.6% (+2.4)
NPA  31.7% (+1.9)




County Tracker-  Palm Beach becomes first large county to surpass Dem Early Vote Turnout.
14 other Mid-size to small counties (out of 68) have already done this.

[wbrocks67]

Florida Turnout Tracker

Lighter day on Sunday, the journey continues...

Dem 48.2% (+2.2)
Rep  42.6% (+2.4)
NPA  31.7% (+1.9)




County Tracker-  Palm Beach becomes first large county to surpass Dem Early Vote Turnout.
14 other Mid-size to small counties (out of 68) have already done this.

Put it this way: Democrats are only 5.7% away from their 2016 early vote turnout in FL. Reps are 13.1% away.

[SLA8]

I think the data can say many things depending on the person analyzing it. I'm guessing Republicans seeing this would say that Republicans are waiting for Election Day to vote and will turnout massively.

I don't know anything about Florida, but it does seem like Early Voting is already well implemented in Florida. It seems fairly logical we'd see less of a partisan split in states where early voting has been used for a while and represents a big portion of the total vote.

With Covid it's hard to say if Dems outperforming their early vote (vis-a-vis Republicans) is necessarily as encouraging as it'd be in normal circumstances, but I do think that as long as they're holding ahead in turnout and can keep adding to their numbers, they could pull it out.

[Buzz]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1320725306743922688?s=21 back to the slaughter

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1320725306743922688?s=21 back to the slaughter

Once again, Dems have a +355K lead with one week left. Reps are going to be needing a lot more than a +6K lead to move that needle.

[Buzz]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1320725306743922688?s=21 back to the slaughter

Once again, Dems have a +355K lead with one week left. Reps are going to be needing a lot more than a +6K lead to move that needle.

it’s 6k at 10am.  It’s gonna be 30k-40k by EOD

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1320725306743922688?s=21 back to the slaughter

Once again, Dems have a +355K lead with one week left. Reps are going to be needing a lot more than a +6K lead to move that needle.

it’s 6k at 10am.  It’s gonna be 30k-40k by EOD

That's still not good enough.

[Bootes Void]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1320725306743922688?s=21 back to the slaughter

Once again, Dems have a +355K lead with one week left. Reps are going to be needing a lot more than a +6K lead to move that needle.

it’s 6k at 10am.  It’s gonna be 30k-40k by EOD

It won't be enough probably when you include mail ballots that would cut into that

[Buzz]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1320725306743922688?s=21 back to the slaughter

Once again, Dems have a +355K lead with one week left. Reps are going to be needing a lot more than a +6K lead to move that needle.

it’s 6k at 10am.  It’s gonna be 30k-40k by EOD

That's still not good enough.

Rude awakening, you are in store for

[SLA8]

It does seem pretty bad, but I'm also guessing that on a weekday more people are voting early than during the day.

[Non Swing Voter]

Republicans aren't going to catch up by Election Day in Florida.  However +2.2 wasn't great for Dems yesterday.  We need them to turn out 3% a day this week, I think that should be the target.  5 or 6 days of that gets them close to 70%. 

Right now Dems are at 48.5% turnout.

[MR DARK BRANDON]

It does seem pretty bad, but I'm also guessing that on a weekday more people are voting early than during the day.

Only 6k is bad?

[GeneralMacArthur]

I think what we could be witnessing right now is cannibalism of the Election Day vote.

Trump voters and Republicans may no longer wait to vote on Election Day and vote early instead.

This could result in lower Election Day turnout and lower turnout in general ...

That’s why the latest early in-person numbers tilt Republican.

On the other hand, I don’t really know what’s going on.

I think it is more likely that Democratic Election Day turnout is being cannibalized. The Democrats have increased their raw early votes by more than the Republicans have so far.

Trump is also an incumbent and voters often do not like to change horses in the midst of a crisis.

Yes, but we don't really have any sort of analog where the incumbent exacerbated the crisis by either ignoring or diminishing it.  

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

I think what we could be witnessing right now is cannibalism of the Election Day vote.

Trump voters and Republicans may no longer wait to vote on Election Day and vote early instead.

This could result in lower Election Day turnout and lower turnout in general ...

That’s why the latest early in-person numbers tilt Republican.

On the other hand, I don’t really know what’s going on.

I think it is more likely that Democratic Election Day turnout is being cannibalized. The Democrats have increased their raw early votes by more than the Republicans have so far.

Trump is also an incumbent and voters often do not like to change horses in the midst of a crisis.

Yes, but we don't really have any sort of analog where the incumbent exacerbated the crisis by either ignoring or diminishing it.  

I stand corrected

[SLA8]

Bad is relative. I'm not worried. We have to wait for the whole day and see how mail-in ballots cut into that. It is a quicker pace than that we saw this weekend though; that's all I was saying.

[ExSky]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1320725306743922688?s=21 back to the slaughter

Once again, Dems have a +355K lead with one week left. Reps are going to be needing a lot more than a +6K lead to move that needle.

it’s 6k at 10am.  It’s gonna be 30k-40k by EOD

And that’s not factoring in mail ins. Definitely not enough. Blue avatars had a nice couple of days there trying to get everyone to panic.

[Buzz]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1320744138380398595?s=21 50k day OTW

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1320744138380398595?s=21 50k day OTW

It'd be great if there was mail-in updates as well to give these context.

[Dr. Arch]

 50k day OTW

I appreciate the updates, but the turnout guesses, especially without VBM context, are wholly unnecessary.

[ExSky]

 50k day OTW

I appreciate the updates, but the turnout guesses, especially without VBM context, are wholly unnecessary.

This is about the only think that Buzz can hang his hat on right now. It looks so bleak everywhere else he has to take even meh numbers from Florida and blow them out of proportion

[Buzz]

 50k day OTW

I appreciate the updates, but the turnout guesses, especially without VBM context, are wholly unnecessary.

This is about the only think that Buzz can hang his hat on right now. It looks so bleak everywhere else he has to take even meh numbers from Florida and blow them out of proportion

You’re not wrong

[brucejoel99]

 50k day OTW

I appreciate the updates, but the turnout guesses, especially without VBM context, are wholly unnecessary.

This is about the only think that Buzz can hang his hat on right now. It looks so bleak everywhere else he has to take even meh numbers from Florida and blow them out of proportion

You’re not wrong

Not sure whether to appreciate the honesty or gripe about it, but it's as if there's a certain sublimeness to it all

[BigSerg]

It really is amazing, the confidence that some people have in talking about things they don't understand.

*Atlas

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

 50k day OTW

I appreciate the updates, but the turnout guesses, especially without VBM context, are wholly unnecessary.

This is about the only think that Buzz can hang his hat on right now. It looks so bleak everywhere else he has to take even meh numbers from Florida and blow them out of proportion

You’re not wrong

Buzz, you just need to accept Joe Biden as your lord and savior. Everyone here has a fealty allegiance to Lord Biden.