2020 Absentee/Early Voting megathread 2

[Flabuckeye]

Florida Turnout Tracker

After this morning's data from the Florida DOE we can see further advancement (albeit a little slower for Ds) toward the 2016 EV Total

Dem  46.0% (+2.8 )
Rep   40.2% (+3.5)
NPA   29.8% (+2.4)

As I have said, no need to even look at the R number (unless they were blowing Ds out), they will get their 80-81% in the end.  Just need to make sure Ds match it this year.  Currently with roughly 3% gains a day they will achieve this statewide sometime Tuesday, a full week ahead of the election...  Hot Take: Put down the Xanax.




In terms of Counties, 12 of 68 counties have already achieved last years EV Turnout including suburb type Pasco and Sarasota Counties.  Look for large Palm Beach and bellwether Pinellas to hit them today.  Yes, there is work to be done in Miami-Dade, Broward and Orange....but plenty of time....and already better than where they were at this time in 2016.

Is there an issue with Seminole county, it is the lowest on all measures so far.  It is it a younger population county?

Seminole County had the 3rd largest % increase (of 68) in Democrat registrants from 2016 to 2020 from 98,117 to 116,625 a 19% increase, only surpassed by Collier and St. Johns Counties.  In raw votes they are doing good, but they are a bit behind in %.  Unsure of the demographic makeup of these new registrants

[bilaps]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1320357683040571392

It's still under 2018 though. Not for long.

[Tintrlvr]

Florida Turnout Tracker

After this morning's data from the Florida DOE we can see further advancement (albeit a little slower for Ds) toward the 2016 EV Total

Dem  46.0% (+2.8 )
Rep   40.2% (+3.5)
NPA   29.8% (+2.4)

As I have said, no need to even look at the R number (unless they were blowing Ds out), they will get their 80-81% in the end.  Just need to make sure Ds match it this year.  Currently with roughly 3% gains a day they will achieve this statewide sometime Tuesday, a full week ahead of the election...  Hot Take: Put down the Xanax.




In terms of Counties, 12 of 68 counties have already achieved last years EV Turnout including suburb type Pasco and Sarasota Counties.  Look for large Palm Beach and bellwether Pinellas to hit them today.  Yes, there is work to be done in Miami-Dade, Broward and Orange....but plenty of time....and already better than where they were at this time in 2016.

Is there an issue with Seminole county, it is the lowest on all measures so far.  It is it a younger population county?

Seminole County had the 3rd largest % increase (of 68) in Democrat registrants from 2016 to 2020 from 98,117 to 116,625 a 19% increase, only surpassed by Collier and St. Johns Counties.  In raw votes they are doing good, but they are a bit behind in %.  Unsure of the demographic makeup of these new registrants

Seminole mailed out absentee ballots later than elsewhere (as did Dade). Both counties have since caught up to their neighbors, though, and are now only slightly below average, though their percentage of mail-in ballots returned is still low (not surprising given they were sent out a week later).

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/FL.html

[Hindsight was 2020]

So great polling data to help ease the concerns of doomers (and myself a bit) about FL EV. Biden has won people 61-37 while people planning on voting on ED are only 60/40 pro-Trump showing Biden is likely killing it with NPA and that ED isn’t going to be so overwhelmingly pro-Trump
https://mobile.twitter.com/kabir_here/status/1320372061873885190

[Dr. Arch]

Texas is now at 80% turnout of its total 2016 turnout, still with a week of early voting to go before election day.

[cwh2018]

Florida Turnout Tracker

After this morning's data from the Florida DOE we can see further advancement (albeit a little slower for Ds) toward the 2016 EV Total

Dem  46.0% (+2.8 )
Rep   40.2% (+3.5)
NPA   29.8% (+2.4)

As I have said, no need to even look at the R number (unless they were blowing Ds out), they will get their 80-81% in the end.  Just need to make sure Ds match it this year.  Currently with roughly 3% gains a day they will achieve this statewide sometime Tuesday, a full week ahead of the election...  Hot Take: Put down the Xanax.




In terms of Counties, 12 of 68 counties have already achieved last years EV Turnout including suburb type Pasco and Sarasota Counties.  Look for large Palm Beach and bellwether Pinellas to hit them today.  Yes, there is work to be done in Miami-Dade, Broward and Orange....but plenty of time....and already better than where they were at this time in 2016.

Is there an issue with Seminole county, it is the lowest on all measures so far.  It is it a younger population county?

Seminole County had the 3rd largest % increase (of 68) in Democrat registrants from 2016 to 2020 from 98,117 to 116,625 a 19% increase, only surpassed by Collier and St. Johns Counties.  In raw votes they are doing good, but they are a bit behind in %.  Unsure of the demographic makeup of these new registrants

Seminole mailed out absentee ballots later than elsewhere (as did Dade). Both counties have since caught up to their neighbors, though, and are now only slightly below average, though their percentage of mail-in ballots returned is still low (not surprising given they were sent out a week later).

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/FL.html

Thanks for the response.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/AstorAaron/status/1320341125031481345

[Bootes Void]

TargetSmart is garbage, how would they know how did early voters vote?

[NCJeff]

Update of NC turnout model (designed to model a surge in dem turnout)

Key logic in the model:
- There are two immovable camps of voters - the people who voted in 2016, which each has expanded 4% (population growth).
- Hence, because Clinton was behind 173k in the final tally in 2016, Biden must find 180k new voters in 2020 to pass Trump in the vote count.
- 60% of Biden's new voters will be registered democrats, 40% will be NPAs

In short, if dems and NPA's hit their targets then Trump can only win by surpassing his (likely with an election day surge).  Additionally, to the extent that Biden has converted voters away from Trump, Biden does not need to hit these targets.  This is, in other words, a conservative (i.e., pessimistic, from the democratic perspective) model.

Dem
2016 turnout:                1,872,593
w/pop growth:                1,947,497
needed new voters:             108,149
total target:                2,055,646
2020 cumulative vote so far: 1,255,999
progress to target: 61.1%

GOP
2016 turnout:                1,571,730
w/pop growth:                1,634,599
needed new voters:                   0
total target:                1,634,599
2020 cumulative vote so far:   929,502
progress to target: 56.9%

NPA
2016 turnout:                1,305,330
w/pop growth:                1,357,543
needed new voters:              72,100
total target:                1,429,643
2020 cumulative vote so far:   901,767
progress to target: 63.1%

Previous iteration of model on page 134 of this thread.

Sources:
2016 turnout - http://dl.ncsbe.gov/ENRS/2016_11_08/voter_stats_20161108.zip
2020 cumulative vote so far - https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/NC.html

[ultraviolet]

Biden is winning Texas.

[pantsaregood]

Does the early vote look bad or even "meh" for Democrats anywhere EXCEPT Florida?

AZ and (possibly) PA look brutal for the GOP. NV looks like there's a predictable firewall forming.

[TopShelfGoal]

TargetSmart is garbage, how would they know how did early voters vote?

Most likely they are looking at the vote on county basis and modelling what the vote might be based on past election results in that county. That approach is not entirely unreasonable with states and counties that are very stable (eg NV or NC), however voting behavior of some large TX counties has changed so rapidly in such little time (eg Denton going from R+30 in 2012 to R+20 in 2016 to R+8 in 2018) that such analysis yields weird results.

[Buzz]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1320387433792503808?s=21

[ExSky]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1320387433792503808?s=21

Oof the In person gap is slowing down already. Republicans can’t keep up.

[BudgieForce]

The weather in Southeast Florida today is absolutely awful. Heavy raining all day. Lots of flooding in my area, but its southeast Florida so flooding is very common even in light rains.

Not sure if it will effect turnout though.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1320387433792503808?s=21

Oof the In person gap is slowing down already. Republicans can’t keep up.

I would imagine the Reps lead today should be less than it has been with Souls to the Polls occurring too. Even so, Dems are up +364K on Reps right now in FL, so they are gonna need to do better than +6K on Dems in a day with only a week to go

[S019]

Texas is now at 80% turnout of its total 2016 turnout, still with a week of early voting to go before election day.

I am becoming more and more convinced that Trump loses TX and takes some downballot Republicans down with him

[ExSky]

Does the early vote look bad or even "meh" for Democrats anywhere EXCEPT Florida?

AZ and (possibly) PA look brutal for the GOP. NV looks like there's a predictable firewall forming.

EV looks fine in Florida (even more so if you follow the conventional logic that NPAs are breaking hard for Biden) and absolutely amazing everywhere else.

The only reason you’re reading what you’re reading here, is because Florida is the only place the GOP isn’t getting absolutely blown to kingdom come, so it’s becone a coping mechanism for Blue avatars.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1320357683040571392

Good for Trump

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Texas is now at 80% turnout of its total 2016 turnout, still with a week of early voting to go before election day.

Texas appears to be headed towards something like 11-12 million vote turnout (hard to say exactly due to uncertainty on election day turnout).

By comparison, there were a total of only 8 million votes cast in the 2012 election. Assuming that the high turnout does hold up, that means that the electorate will be substantially different from even just 8 years ago, even if not a single voter actually changed their support from Romney to Biden, and even if older voters (the most pro-Romney, most Republican, and most white demographic) were not being gradually replaced in the electorate by more diverse voters over the course of that 8 year period.

Although, as a caveat, we should remember that at least some of the new voters will be rural WWC pro-Trump voters, it is not like every one of the new voters is going to be a Dem. Which is why Trump is even competitive at all.

[republican1993]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1320387433792503808?s=21

Oof the In person gap is slowing down already. Republicans can’t keep up.

reps normally start off slow in the morning and come out in the afternoon from what we have been seeing & since it's like soul of the polls i can see like 15-20k rep increase but we will see.

[vitoNova]

LOL in trying to read the tea leaves during an election year amidst a global pandemic. 

[SaneDemocrat]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1320357683040571392

Good for Trump

sarcasm"

[Lief 🗽]

If Democrats can hold things close to a tie today in Florida that would be very good news.

[Buzz]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1320410525507985408?s=21