2020 Absentee/Early Voting megathread 2

[anthonyjg]

So this may be a stupid question, but I'd love if someone more familiar with election mechanics could answer... With millions of people returning their ballots well before election day, is there any actual reason to believe we won't get results on election night? Even places that cannot count until the day of, I mean that's when we normally count them anyway, right? I may be missing something about the actual ways this is run, but on paper the fears seem kind of unsubstantiated to me.

Some states are allowed to count ballots hours or days prior to polls closing

https://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/vopp-table-16-when-absentee-mail-ballot-processing-and-counting-can-begin.aspx

Yeah so am I right to think election night should be pretty normal, all things given? Like I see on the news all this fretting about not knowing who will win for days or weeks and even if this was a close election, which I don't think it will be, it seems like everything should actually run fine, again all things given (knocks profusely on wood).

[n1240]

For the EV doomers in particular:

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1320133444144406538

Someone in the replies makes the point that, since Trump has demonized mail-in voting so much, the Republicans who actually are voting by mail at this point may be disproportionately Biden voters. Which makes sense to  me.

Yeah I think it's pretty likely that Biden does quite well among Republicans voting by mail relatively. I think up to 20% of Republican mail-in votes in Philly burbs in the PA primary were non-Trump votes

[NOVA Green]

Really ugly numbers in Florida. Let’s see if the Obama rally this weekend can turn things around but it may be time to consider redirecting resources to GA and TX.

🤔🤔🤔

https://twitter.com/jmartnyt/status/1320142364044906496?s=21

If this is the case then Biden is going to LOSE BOTH. Historically Florida is at least ~5% to the left of Georgia.  Florida was won by the democrats in 2008 and 2012. Georgia when that goes democratic that will be huge and Michigan 2016 like!

Based upon what exactly may I ask?

"Smart People" per the NYT tweet, prior National Voting results, or EV data?

We have yet to really see any hard evidence that either Trump or Biden is favored in FL and GA (Other than perhaps polling data which points to narrow Biden victories in both).

As many other posters have previously noted, NAVs will likely skew DEM this year in both states, so really even the attempts to data mine EV numbers by partisan affiliation leaves out a significant chunk of voters.

[The Mikado]

So this may be a stupid question, but I'd love if someone more familiar with election mechanics could answer... With millions of people returning their ballots well before election day, is there any actual reason to believe we won't get results on election night? Even places that cannot count until the day of, I mean that's when we normally count them anyway, right? I may be missing something about the actual ways this is run, but on paper the fears seem kind of unsubstantiated to me.

Some states are allowed to count ballots hours or days prior to polls closing

https://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/vopp-table-16-when-absentee-mail-ballot-processing-and-counting-can-begin.aspx

Yeah so am I right to think election night should be pretty normal, all things given? Like I see on the news all this fretting about not knowing who will win for days or weeks and even if this was a close election, which I don't think it will be, it seems like everything should actually run fine, again all things given (knocks profusely on wood).

Basically, the problem is Pennsylvania. If Biden wins in a way where PA is unnecessary, election will be called on election night. PA will be slow.

[anthonyjg]

So this may be a stupid question, but I'd love if someone more familiar with election mechanics could answer... With millions of people returning their ballots well before election day, is there any actual reason to believe we won't get results on election night? Even places that cannot count until the day of, I mean that's when we normally count them anyway, right? I may be missing something about the actual ways this is run, but on paper the fears seem kind of unsubstantiated to me.

Some states are allowed to count ballots hours or days prior to polls closing

https://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/vopp-table-16-when-absentee-mail-ballot-processing-and-counting-can-begin.aspx

Yeah so am I right to think election night should be pretty normal, all things given? Like I see on the news all this fretting about not knowing who will win for days or weeks and even if this was a close election, which I don't think it will be, it seems like everything should actually run fine, again all things given (knocks profusely on wood).

Basically, the problem is Pennsylvania. If Biden wins in a way where PA is unnecessary, election will be called on election night. PA will be slow.

Gotcha, thanks!

[NYSforKennedy2024]

Erie County, NY reports 13,308 voters on day one of NY Early Voting. 2% of the county's voters.

[Lief 🗽]

I think the main issue is not counting mail-in ballots, which I agree should basically be counted as fast as day-of ballots, but processing them (which means taking them out of the envelope, checking the signature, sorting them, etc.) which needs to be done before counting. In civilized states this can be done prior to election day, but in PA and WI it cannot be done until day of, and I don't think they're able to process all of these ballots in time to start counting them when polls close.

[Non Swing Voter]

The other thing about Republican mail in ballot numbers, aside from the good points made about that Trump discouraged mail in balloting so they are people who are pre-disposed to not like Trump... is that many of them are probably voting that way because they are concerned about the pandemic, Trump's worst issue.

[Non Swing Voter]

45.5% of registered democrats in Florida have voted with 10 days to go!

[Non Swing Voter]

Wouldn’t look too deep into the campaign stops.  Trump was in Nevada this week and is going to New Hampshire tomorrow.  Neither are going his way.

yeah and what does that tell you?  he thinks he's behind in the 3 upper midwest states and needs a new path as backup.

[DaleCooper]

Really ugly numbers in Florida. Let’s see if the Obama rally this weekend can turn things around but it may be time to consider redirecting resources to GA and TX.

🤔🤔🤔

https://twitter.com/jmartnyt/status/1320142364044906496?s=21

No idea why that would be his first thought. The Biden campaign has released lots of material indicating that Georgia is one of their primary targets outside of the Rust Belt, and regardless of how the campaign feels about Florida, there are two competitive Senate seats in Georgia so it'd be foolish not to target the state even if they thought they had a lock on Florida.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Really ugly numbers in Florida. Let’s see if the Obama rally this weekend can turn things around but it may be time to consider redirecting resources to GA and TX.

🤔🤔🤔

https://twitter.com/jmartnyt/status/1320142364044906496?s=21

No idea why that would be his first thought. The Biden campaign has released lots of material indicating that Georgia is one of their primary targets outside of the Rust Belt, and regardless of how the campaign feels about Florida, there are two competitive Senate seats in Georgia so it'd be foolish not to target the state even if they thought they had a lock on Florida.

They wouldn't have sent Obama to Florida today if they didn't think it was worth contesting.

[Inmate Trump]

So this may be a stupid question, but I'd love if someone more familiar with election mechanics could answer... With millions of people returning their ballots well before election day, is there any actual reason to believe we won't get results on election night? Even places that cannot count until the day of, I mean that's when we normally count them anyway, right? I may be missing something about the actual ways this is run, but on paper the fears seem kind of unsubstantiated to me.

Some states are allowed to count ballots hours or days prior to polls closing

https://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/vopp-table-16-when-absentee-mail-ballot-processing-and-counting-can-begin.aspx

Yeah so am I right to think election night should be pretty normal, all things given? Like I see on the news all this fretting about not knowing who will win for days or weeks and even if this was a close election, which I don't think it will be, it seems like everything should actually run fine, again all things given (knocks profusely on wood).

Basically, the problem is Pennsylvania. If Biden wins in a way where PA is unnecessary, election will be called on election night. PA will be slow.

Is it too late for PA to change their rules on this and allow early processing and/or counting of absentee ballots?

Did they even try to get this done?

[Bootes Void]

Biden has a greater shot at winning Florida than NC or Georgia. dont focus too much on EV or trying to analyze this stuff. Also the biden campaign has people all over the place

[SnowLabrador]

I've heard early voting shows that Trump will win Florida, since Republicans are about to overtake Democrats.

[Dr. Arch]

I've heard early voting shows that Trump will win Florida, since Republicans are about to overtake Democrats.

??

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

I really don't get why folks are so narrowly fixated on the Dem vs GOP ballots as if we're supposed to ignore the 1/3 of independents who are also voting.

Not to mention, it's been increasingly apparent over the years that newer & younger voters are choosing to register as Independent/Non-affiliated rather than Democrat.

And regardless, Biden is killing it with Independents & Johnson/Stein voters.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I've heard early voting shows that Trump will win Florida, since Republicans are about to overtake Democrats.

??

Just another person who doesn't understand that party registration doesn't show who you're voting for.

[Bootes Void]

I've heard early voting shows that Trump will win Florida, since Republicans are about to overtake Democrats.

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

I've heard early voting shows that Trump will win Florida, since Republicans are about to overtake Democrats.

??

Just another person who doesn't understand that party registration doesn't show who you're voting for.

Even if we're going by party reg, Democrats still lead by like 380,000 votes so?

[NOVA Green]

So, since there has been an unusual amount of interest in Montana on Atlas this year, I thought it might be interesting to take a deeper dive into the Early Voting numbers by County.

Montana does not have voter registration by party, so we can't really data mine the EV numbers in that manner.

As I have noted elsewhere, MT does have same day voter registration, so these numbers will fluctuate on a daily basis.

To approach the EV TO numbers, I thought it might be most useful to color code counties based upon areas where DEMs will need to perform well to remain competitive statewide, and areas where the Republicans are strong.

For purposes of this exercise, I used the 2008 GE-PRES numbers for coding purposes, since it was a very close PRES election in MT, as well as recent polling indicating that Montana is relatively close this Year, and Biden National polling numbers showing something likely meeting or exceeding Obama '08 margins.

I recognize that there will be some variations, and that US-SEN, MT-GOV, and MT-AL results might not mirror GE PRES breakdowns, but at least it is a starting point.

I have attempted to use Atlas style shading to represent rough level of strength.

I have also "flagged" counties with extremely above/below average % of ballots requested / received, as well as total % of "current" RV ballots returned.

So let's roll the Table by Counties to see what the results so far show:









So, where to start with all this?

1.) 54.5% of all requested ballots to date have been returned and 47.6% of registered voters to date have returned ballots.

2.) The % of ballots requested and returned metric is skewed a bit at the Statewide level because of extremely high numbers from a few larger population counties: Yellowstone (Billings) and Lewis & Clark (Helena).

Additionally, heavily Democratic Missoula County is punching above average requested & returned, as well as "Ancestral Democratic" Silver Bow County (Butte).

3.) We see significant under-performance in requested & returned ballots in a ton of rural counties in MT, including both heavily Democratic Counties (Mainly heavily Native American), and Republican counties scattered throughout the State.

Flathead County ballot return rates should be concerning for Republicans, since it not only represents 10% of Statewide RVs (As of today), but additionally skews much more older demographically (55+ Years) in an age bracket where Biden appears to dramatically improving compared to Trump-Clinton '16.

Gallatin County (Bozeman) ballot return rates concern me a bit, since this a place where Democrats need to perform well to win statewide, with growing trending and swings in the DEMs direction, make this a critical target.

Now it could just be that DEMs are turning out in much greater numbers in Gallatin and PUBs are mulling their choices, but just like in business I would happily exchange greater raw votes (profit) over margins, if it benefited the "bottom line".

4.) RV (as of today) returned numbers appear relatively similar to the % of ballots returned numbers, with Yellowstone and Lewis and Clark Counties punching significantly above their weight.

Additionally, Ancestral DEM Silver Bow and it's twin county next door Deer Lodge are doing quite well.

Numbers out of Lake County (North of Missoula), appear to be positive for DEMs thus far, assuming that Seniors up around the lake swing hard against Trump.

5.) Gallatin County continues to disappoint for the DEMs.

6.) Missoula County running a bit ahead, so seems like a positive for DEMs there, but DEMs need not only massive turnout but also massive margins up there.

7.) Flathead County again stands out. Something weird going on there, possibly connected with the Senior Vote and the PRES Election, or possibly locals still making up their minds about the MT-SEN, MT-GOV, and MT-AL elections.

8.) Ravalli County *appears* to be a bright spot for Republicans (4.5% of MT RVs), but again we get into the whole Senior Vote, so margins matter there when it comes to shrinking net vote PUB margins.

9.) Many of the Rural Counties continue to disappoint for both DEMs and PUBs, with predictable under-performance among Native American Counties thus far, as well as PUBs not really getting their votes out yet in many overwhelmingly Republican rurals.

10.) Yellowstone County (Billings) will likely be the decisive place to decide the 2020 elections in Montana.

DEMs don't necessarily need to *win* here, but rather keep the margins reasonable and flip Billings.

Here is a link to a summary that I made about Billings on the "Largest City in Each State to Vote for Trump in 2020" thread:

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=386520.msg7521327#msg7521327

To Close with, I will link to a song about Montana from the late and great Merle Haggard: "Big City".

I won't fill up the space with a direct link, but Seniors in Montana may well decide how this State votes for all of those juicy elections on the ballot in 2020.

"Big City cut me loose and set me free"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LkrQMfL9MKg

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Williamson County, TX finishes the day with 6,691 in-person voters. That's slightly more than the 6,386 votes last Sunday, their weakest day so far.

With just today's in-person votes, that puts them at 99% of 2016's total votes & 96% of 2018's total votes

[compucomp]

I think the main issue is not counting mail-in ballots, which I agree should basically be counted as fast as day-of ballots, but processing them (which means taking them out of the envelope, checking the signature, sorting them, etc.) which needs to be done before counting. In civilized states this can be done prior to election day, but in PA and WI it cannot be done until day of, and I don't think they're able to process all of these ballots in time to start counting them when polls close.

That's a very good point. I hope PA will be able to count a decent portion of the mail votes on election night. Otherwise, there will be a red mirage of epic proportions. Democrats have a 1.1m edge in requested mail ballots, for reference in 2008 Obama won PA by 10% and that was a 620k margin. If they can't count any mail ballots on Nov. 3, then Trump will have a big lead that night even if Biden actually won by the predicted 6-7%. Then he proclaim victory and will raise holy hell about mail ballot fraud and who knows what happens after that. The Governor, Secretary of State, and PA Supreme Court are Democratic controlled, which helps, but things could get ugly.

[Lief 🗽]

https://twitter.com/boenyc/status/1320167190386122754?s=21

[NOVA Green]

https://twitter.com/boenyc/status/1320167190386122754?s=21

NYC in the House!!!

100k + on Day One from the City alone...