2020 Absentee/Early Voting megathread 2

[n1240]

NC 10/23, day 8 early in-person vote:

Dem 71094 (30.7%)
Rep 888129 (38.0%)
Una 72576 (31.3%)
Total 231799

compared to day 7 in 2016

Dem 94466 (39.6%)
Rep 81940 (34.4%)
Una 61912 (26.0%)
Total 238318

Current Total (in-person only)

Dem 845130 (38.5%)
Rep 732715 (33.4%)
Una 616315 (28.1%)
Total 2194160

Current Total (cumulative absentee)

Dem 1206995 (41.0%)
Rep 879222 (29.9%)
Una 858117 (29.1%)
Total 2944334

Cumulative Total at same time 2016

Dem 651693 (44.5%)
Rep 451509 (30.8%)
Una 361736 (24.7%)
Total 1464938

GOP raw early vote higher than yesterday has Dem vote drops a bit, but Dems still maintain substantial early vote lead and the cumulative early vote total is about 250k short of 2016 now and probably passes it by Monday.

Seems like quite a bit more unaffiliated vs 2016?

Yeah the unaffiliated raw vote is already higher than 2016 early (839k final in 2016 and now 858k with a week to go).

[n1240]

Is someone keeping track of how many mail ballots are being received every day in FL and NC, and what their breakdown is? There are still 40% of requested ballots unreturned in Florida and almost 50% in NC, any expectation how much of this will drop by election day?

NC can continue to receive ballots after election day (unless the SCOTUS doesn't weigh in or something) but that might create chaos on election day, and Florida can't, so getting that return rate up seems like a priority for Democrats.

NC is pretty easy, haven't really been tracking Florida that closely tbh.

[philly09]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oCXXgbaNmys

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

An interesting bit of insight from Nate Cohn with regard to ballot counting in Arizona:

https://mobile.twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1319969436137410562

[Flabuckeye]

Morning data file from the Florida DOE.   Statewide Democrats inching closer to their 2016 EV Turnout number.  Gains from yesterday

Dem-   43.2% (+3.4)
Rep-    36.7% (+4.1)
NPA-    27.4% (+2.8 )



Looking at County specifics-

Larger counties chugging along (go Palm Beach & Pinellas).  However, look at mid-size counties, doing quite well but that is to be expected given they are mostly retirement counties and have the time to vote mid-week.  I expect Larger counties to make a run this weekend (more working class & hopefully souls to the polls)



Note:  Democrats in 3 of Florida's 68 counties have already surpassed '16 EV Turnout.   This includes the relatively large Pasco County- Suburb of Tampa....hmmmmm.  

Democrats in many more counties will surpass EV numbers today.

[Brittain33]

i'm in the 18-29 range and voted trump lol

Which is fine. But the vast majority of polls has the age range as being overwhelmingly pro-Biden.

my age group is mostly liberal, but def have more strong conservative voices than my parents when they were my age my age group (mid 20s) are def more conservative leaning socially liberal they might not say they are voting him which happens when i speak to a lot of people if i ask them.

I’m in my mid-40s and certainly for people a few years older than me, being a Republican as a younger person was a normal thing, more mainstream, even if still a minority view and there wasn’t the kind of edge that comes with being outnumbered because the country as a whole was more Republican.

[n1240]

An interesting bit of insight from Nate Cohn with regard to ballot counting in Arizona:

https://mobile.twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1319969436137410562

Thing is I think there are going to be two conflicting factors in play, with R's doing better on on election day and more liberal/younger voters returning their mail-in ballots later as usual. Could be early Biden lead, then Trump comes back by end of election night or takes the lead, then Biden takes the lead once all is said and done. It'll be hard to quantify in each direction though, while the late mail vote having a Dem bias in general is an established trend seen in other elections, it might be hard to determine how large of an impact it will have this year - it's possible a chunk of Dem leaning voters who typically return their votes later on are returning it earlier this year.

[pantsaregood]

Still not understanding the level of bedwetting on the Biden side. AZ and PA look brutal for the GOP right now, NC is showing pretty decent advantage, and NV is showing signs of a very typical Clark firewall. Texas is also looking like voting will be absurdly high.

Florida doesn't have great early signs, but dooming seems at odds with everything else.

[swf541]

Still not understanding the level of bedwetting on the Biden side. AZ and PA look brutal for the GOP right now, NC is showing pretty decent advantage, and NV is showing signs of a very typical Clark firewall. Texas is also looking like voting will be absurdly high.

Florida doesn't have great early signs, but dooming seems at odds with everything else.

Florida doesnt even look bad/doom just looks competitive, and yep it's pretty insane atm.

[Flabuckeye]

Still not understanding the level of bedwetting on the Biden side. AZ and PA look brutal for the GOP right now, NC is showing pretty decent advantage, and NV is showing signs of a very typical Clark firewall. Texas is also looking like voting will be absurdly high.

Florida doesn't have great early signs, but dooming seems at odds with everything else.

It feels like Biden is at 2nd and Goal at the 1 yard line.   You know there are many plays to get that one yard, but you were stuffed at the goal line on four downs in 2016

[pantsaregood]

Still not understanding the level of bedwetting on the Biden side. AZ and PA look brutal for the GOP right now, NC is showing pretty decent advantage, and NV is showing signs of a very typical Clark firewall. Texas is also looking like voting will be absurdly high.

Florida doesn't have great early signs, but dooming seems at odds with everything else.

Florida doesnt even look bad/doom just looks competitive, and yep it's pretty insane atm.

Yeah, I wasn't trying to say Florida looked "bad," just not as unambiguously great as the other states. I believe I also failed to mention the positive sign of the youth vote looking massive.

[bilaps]

Still not understanding the level of bedwetting on the Biden side. AZ and PA look brutal for the GOP right now, NC is showing pretty decent advantage, and NV is showing signs of a very typical Clark firewall. Texas is also looking like voting will be absurdly high.

Florida doesn't have great early signs, but dooming seems at odds with everything else.

Florida doesnt even look bad/doom just looks competitive, and yep it's pretty insane atm.

Yeah, I wasn't trying to say Florida looked "bad," just not as unambiguously great as the other states. I believe I also failed to mention the positive sign of the youth vote looking massive.

And yet, FL is one of few states where early vote could actually mean something. Before early vote started everyone was saying don't overreact, and yet people are overreacting to everything.

[cwh2018]

As an outside observer I would still be very cautious about North Carolina with regard to the democrats. I know it is an apple to oranges comparison, but dems felt really good about NC in 2016 and the end result was not really that close.  I feel NC is gravy and is by far and away the sixth state of the "core 6" that Biden is targeting.  I think Biden needs to win nationally by about 8 to be confident  of carrying it.  

[ON Progressive]

As an outside observer I would still be very cautious about North Carolina with regard to the democrats. I know it is an apple to oranges comparison, but dems felt really good about NC in 2016 and the end result was not really that close.  I feel NC is gravy and is by far and away the sixth state of the "core 6" that Biden is targeting.  I think Biden needs to win nationally by about 8 to be confident  of carrying it.  

The thing is that there was nothing really there in the data to show the NC EV was actually good in 2016. It was actually pretty terrible compared to 2012 for Democrats. Dems were 6% less of the electorate in NC in EV compared to 2012, and the EV electorate was 5% less Black than in 2012.

[Dr. Arch]

Texas is now at 76% turnout of the total 2016 vote! Quite impressive.

[Gass3268]

Out of town this weekend, but here is some Wisconsin stuff:

https://twitter.com/wisvoter/status/1320003704691564545?s=21

https://twitter.com/wisvoter/status/1320008859361153025?s=21

[Crumpets]

As an outside observer I would still be very cautious about North Carolina with regard to the democrats. I know it is an apple to oranges comparison, but dems felt really good about NC in 2016 and the end result was not really that close.  I feel NC is gravy and is by far and away the sixth state of the "core 6" that Biden is targeting.  I think Biden needs to win nationally by about 8 to be confident  of carrying it.  

I'm not so sure. Look at how NC has trended relative to the nation as a whole since 1996:

1996: R+13
2000: R+13
2004: R+10
2008: R+7
2012: R+6
2016: R+6

NC has been trending clearly Dem for at least 20 years, albeit more slowly in the last couple of cycles. Unless that trend reverses by at least two points this year and NC votes 8 points to the right of the nation for the first time since 2004, I think Biden can safely expect to win NC if he's winning by 6 nationally, and possibly as little as 4 or 5 if that trend continues.

[Gass3268]

Another way to look at Florida. Democrats at the same getting their best voters to the polls, but also doing much better at getting infrequent voters out.

https://twitter.com/mcimaps/status/1319930380200366081?s=21

[BudgieForce]

Me and my family voted for Biden in Broward County this morning. No line, but most of the voting booths were full. Looks like very steady turnout.

[cwh2018]

What is the story with Seminole county in Florida, it is well behind on mail in returns versus everywhere else.  What is the demographics of the county in terms of young/old and white/minority, does that help explain it?

[cwh2018]

As an outside observer I would still be very cautious about North Carolina with regard to the democrats. I know it is an apple to oranges comparison, but dems felt really good about NC in 2016 and the end result was not really that close.  I feel NC is gravy and is by far and away the sixth state of the "core 6" that Biden is targeting.  I think Biden needs to win nationally by about 8 to be confident  of carrying it.  

I'm not so sure. Look at how NC has trended relative to the nation as a whole since 1996:

1996: R+13
2000: R+13
2004: R+10
2008: R+7
2012: R+6
2016: R+6

NC has been trending clearly Dem for at least 20 years, albeit more slowly in the last couple of cycles. Unless that trend reverses by at least two points this year and NC votes 8 points to the right of the nation for the first time since 2004, I think Biden can safely expect to win NC if he's winning by 6 nationally, and possibly as little as 4 or 5 if that trend continues.

Yeah I should have said to be very confident of winning NC then he needs to win by 8, I think Biden plus nationally makes NC a genuine 50-50 race.  I actually have Biden winning by 6 in my final prediction and am most unsure of NC

[Bootes Void]

Has Wisconsin updated itself, haven't seen much movement in VBM

[Hindsight was 2020]

Another way to look at Florida. Democrats at the same getting their best voters to the polls, but also doing much better at getting infrequent voters out.

https://twitter.com/mcimaps/status/1319930380200366081?s=21

That’s not reassuring data tbh

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

HAYS County has surpassed 70k and is just 2k shy of TOTAL 2016 turnout.  They’ll pass it today. They need to hit 80k to break the 2018 record, which they’ll do sometime early next week. I’ll be shocked if Hays total turnout this election doesn’t break 100k. I think Biden will net 20k+ out of here.

[soundchaser]

HAYS County has surpassed 70k and is just 2k shy of TOTAL 2016 turnout.  They’ll pass it today. They need to hit 80k to break the 2018 record, which they’ll do sometime early next week. I’ll be shocked if Hays total turnout this election doesn’t break 100k. I think Biden will net 20k+ out of here.

Ok, that's done it: dropping $50 on PredictIt for Biden to win Texas.