2020 Absentee/Early Voting megathread 2

[republican1993]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1320828588820697088?s=21
 Y’all were so mad this morning when I said a 50k day was in store.
I’m

im hoping for 60-65 to get closer to break even

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

As of 3 pm, 13k have voted today in Travis and 32k in Harris. This doesn’t include mail, which will have big returns since it’s coming in off a weekend. Travis remains on pace to hit around 530k by the end of EV. Harris will be super close to hitting that 1.4 million figure by Friday.

[SLA8]

what are the vmb numbers for FL?
Do these numbers include all counties or are Miami-Dade and other counties still lagging?

[GP270watch]

what's the vmb numbers for FL?
Do these numbers include all counties or are Miami-Dade and other counties still lagging?

 The VBM tomorrow for Democrats should be great. I have no idea why but over the years the counties tend to do huge mail reporting on Tuesday and middle of the week. Tracking Miami-Dade in real time is futile. You have to wait for the morning reports. In 2016 they were tweeting EV stats but I don't believe they're even doing that now.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/yougovamerica/status/1320833152429031425?s=21

[Bootes Void]

https://twitter.com/yougovamerica/status/1320833152429031425?s=21

Could be 70% by next week's anyways there will always be a lag in counting

[SLA8]

Makes sense. I know NY has barely counted too and people are voting by mail.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

I was gonna hold off on the TX early vote updates today, since there didn't seem to be much movement. But I don't think it'd hurt.

I'll also be changing up the format as we get into the extra week of early voting. I'll simply be printing the updated totals & turnout, plus how the vote totals compare to the 2016 & 2018 total vote counts.

Day 13 of early voting in Texas (In-person + VBM) (October 25)


HARRIS COUNTY (Houston)                          1,090,445    44.0%    2016:  83.1%   2018:  90.3%
FORT BEND COUNTY (Houston suburbs)         245,916    51.0%    2016:  93.8%   2018:  96.3%
MONTGOMERY COUNTY (Houston suburbs)    177,138    47.9%    2016:  86.6%   2018:  93.2%
GALVESTON COUNTY (Houston suburbs)        111,053    48.6%    2016:  90.4%   2018:  97.7%

DALLAS COUNTY (Dallas)                                601,332    43.0%    2016:  79.2%   2018:  82.6%
TARRANT COUNTY (Fort Worth)                     538,174    44.4%     2016:  80.5%   2018:  85.7%
COLLIN COUNTY (Dallas suburbs)                  355,710    54.8%     2016:  98.4%   2018:  99.9%
DENTON COUNTY (Dallas suburbs)                 299,881    53.1%   2016:  100.4%  2018: 101.4%

BEXAR COUNTY (San Antonio)                        510,894    43.0%    2016:   86.6%   2018:  93.0%

TRAVIS COUNTY (Austin)                               427,071    49.9%     2016:  91.1%   2018:  88.2%
WILLIAMSON COUNTY (Austin suburbs)       205,234    54.5%    2016: 101.1%    2018:  98.6%
HAYS COUNTY (Austin suburbs)                      74,808    49.0%    2016: 103.7%    2018:  93.8%

EL PASO COUNTY (El Paso)                            168,447    34.5%     2016:  78.7%    2018:  82.7%

HIDALGO COUNTY (Rio Grande Valley)         140,499    35.9%     2016:  81.0%    2018:  92.6%
NUECES COUNTY (Corpus Christi)                   85,674    40.5%     2016:  82.1%    2018:  91.1%
CAMERON COUNTY (Rio Grande Valley)          72,846    33.3%     2016:  79.1%    2018:  93.5

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/yougovamerica/status/1320833152429031425?s=21

Good for Trump.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

(Tweet about most likely voters already casting a ballot)

The only way that national margin tightens to 6-7% will be from a combination of polling errors that only benefit Trump + a sh*tload of 'Shy Trump Voters' + Republicans truly "coming home" in the next week + insane Election Day turnout for the GOP

[Bootes Void]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1320828588820697088?s=21 Y’all were so mad this morning when I said a 50k day was in store.
I’m

308,000 lead for the democrats
7 more full days (Tue, wed, thurs, friday, sat, sun, mon) of 50,000 republican
50,000 x 7 = 350,000 votes for In person for the republican party if we continue days like this!
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17YKazYaUMZ33vmd4YHDKcVdlTkP5DmnHQQlAttwOzL0/htmlview?pru=AAABdWY-2lM*RELmuWopShoDq9-h3Bl_Tw#

So that means that republicans have a chance at pulling ahead even with the mail vote advantage the democrats had. lol

You gotta VBM as well, not just in-person.

[Dr. Arch]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1320828588820697088?s=21
 Y’all were so mad this morning when I said a 50k day was in store.
I’m

If you want to play guessing games, buy a crystal ball and a tent. Let's keep things factual here. It doesn't matter if the guessing game turns out or not. That was my point earlier.

Also, nobody is mad, so far as I know at least.

[Donerail]

for any FL Posters or people in the loop...

1.) What's the likelyhood of either Trump or Biden winning a big (more than 5% chunk) of the opposition parties vote?

2.) Do we know from polling how NPAs will vote?

1. CBS/YouGov yesterday had 8% of Republicans for Biden, 4% of Democrats for Trump. Note that there may be some enthusiasm effects here — among voters who already voted, 12% of Republicans went for Biden and just 1% of Democrats for Trump.
2. Same poll had an even split among independents but 56/40 for Biden among those who already voted. If you trust Hawkfish, they have NPAs breaking for Biden; I would expect he wins NPAs by a minimum of a few percentage points, just based on who's likely to register NPA (they skew younger + more Latino).

[MikeIrvine]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1320828588820697088?s=21
 Y’all were so mad this morning when I said a 50k day was in store.
I’m

308,000 lead for the democrats
7 more full days (Tue, wed, thurs, friday, sat, sun, mon) of 50,000 republican
50,000 x 7 = 350,000 votes for In person for the republican party if we continue days like this!
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17YKazYaUMZ33vmd4YHDKcVdlTkP5DmnHQQlAttwOzL0/htmlview?pru=AAABdWY-2lM*RELmuWopShoDq9-h3Bl_Tw#

So that means that republicans have a chance at pulling ahead even with the mail vote advantage the democrats had. lol

But that assumes no more mail ballots? What is the net gain when mail ins are factored in for the day?

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/breaking_et/status/1320834851226980352?s=20

All the suburbs know they are living in a swing state.

[Non Swing Voter]

Texas is basically an entirely different state this year.

Republicans have benefited so much from the electoral votes given to them by growing minority populations in their states, whom they oppress.  It's going to be beautiful when Democrats overtake them in Georgia and North Carolina and Texas and the oppressors learn what it's like to not have a voice.

[Inmate Trump]

Texas is basically an entirely different state this year.

Republicans have benefited so much from the electoral votes given to them by growing minority populations in their states, whom they oppress.  It's going to be beautiful when Democrats overtake them in Georgia and North Carolina and Texas and the oppressors learn what it's like to not have a voice.

I want to believe.

[xavier110]

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1320839567516160001

[Non Swing Voter]

Texas is basically an entirely different state this year.

Republicans have benefited so much from the electoral votes given to them by growing minority populations in their states, whom they oppress.  It's going to be beautiful when Democrats overtake them in Georgia and North Carolina and Texas and the oppressors learn what it's like to not have a voice.

I want to believe.

It's going to happen.  Look at Virginia.  The GOP went from complete power to nothing in a few years.  Now "real Virginia" has no control, not even a voice.  They have gun sanctuary cities that are meaningless.  This is the future for much of the South. 

[Adam Griffin]

Georgia, Monday 5 PM Update:, 192,070 votes have been cast on Monday. It's very likely that with the final update, this will be the highest-turnout day thus far.

This includes 149,053 in-person votes and 43,017 mail ballots.

Total ballots cast in GA are now 1,945,817 in-person & 1,000,588 by mail, for a grand total of 2,946,405 (70.74% of 2016 total vote).

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1320839567516160001

Any idea how independents will be voting there?  I'd assume they lean Democrat but you never know.

[forsythvoter]

Indies in Western states generally lean pretty heavily Democratic. I think in 2016, Sinema won the county by 3 even with a R+6 registration gap in the voting population.

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1320839567516160001

Any idea how independents will be voting there?  I'd assume they lean Democrat but you never know.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Any idea how independents will be voting there?  I'd assume they lean Democrat but you never know.

Based on exit polls, Trump & Sinema won independents by 3%. Trump & McSally also both got 47%

[forsythvoter]

Interesting, I would have thought the Indy vote was more D than that based on Sinema's overall 2% statewide win. I guess this means that that there is more crossover voting by Rs than by Ds in AZ, given the traditional R registration advantage.

Any idea how independents will be voting there?  I'd assume they lean Democrat but you never know.

Based on exit polls, Trump & Sinema won independents by 3%. Trump & McSally also both got 47%

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Interesting, I would have thought the Indy vote was more D than that based on Sinema's overall 2% statewide win. I guess this means that that there is more crossover voting by Rs than by Ds in AZ, given the traditional R registration advantage.

Any idea how independents will be voting there?  I'd assume they lean Democrat but you never know.

Based on exit polls, Trump & Sinema won independents by 3%. Trump & McSally also both got 47%

Usual caveats for exit polls. They are just a general baseline.