2020 Absentee/Early Voting megathread 2

[Virginiá]

Old thread: https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=392429.0

[cwh2018]

I assume Florida casting more than 10 million votes in the election is a given as 9.4 million were cast in 2016.  Not sure if they can hit 10.5 million.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Williamson County, TX finishing the day at just under 12,000 in-person votes.

That alone puts them at 95% of their 2016 total vote and around 93% of their 2018 total vote.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Sharing this from another thread. Turnout is based on yesterday's figures and statewide reporting:


Top 10 Texas counties by turnout
1.  DeWitt          62.7%
2.  Mason          49.9%
3.  Jeff Davis     49.0%
4.  Kendall         48.3%
5.  Collin           48.1%
6.  Blanco          48.0%
7.  Williamson    47.6%
8.  Bandera        47.4%
9.  Denton         46.9%
10. Kerr             46.0%

Bottom 10 Texas counties by turnout
255. Zapata       15.2%
254. Castro        15.9%
253. Hudspeth    16.1%
252. Willacy       17.0%
251. Falls           17.3%
250. Brooks       17.4%
249. Maverick     17.4%
248. Parmer       18.9%
247. Lynn           19.0%
246. Culberson    19.7%

Not sure about that DeWitt number, but we'll see if it's corrected by tomorrow

[philly09]

Up to 53.4 Million. 38.8% of the 2016 vote. We might 40% tonight.

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/1319797859143778304

[Non Swing Voter]

states with over 50% of 2016 turnout already:

Washington
Colorado
New Mexico
Montana
Texas
New Jersey
Georgia
Tennessee
North Carolina
Vermont

Getting close:

Florida (49.8%)

[philly09]

https://twitter.com/DaNumbersGuy/status/1319792777597755392

[xavier110]

states with over 50% of 2016 turnout already:

Washington
Colorado
New Mexico
Montana
Texas
New Jersey
Georgia
Tennessee
North Carolina
Vermont

Getting close:

Florida (49.8%)

He hasn’t updated AZ which is at around 52-53% of 2016

[Non Swing Voter]

states with over 50% of 2016 turnout already:

Washington
Colorado
New Mexico
Montana
Texas
New Jersey
Georgia
Tennessee
North Carolina
Vermont

Getting close:

Florida (49.8%)

He hasn’t updated AZ which is at around 52-53% of 2016

I suspect a bunch of other states are significantly higher too.

[Non Swing Voter]

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17YKazYaUMZ33vmd4YHDKcVdlTkP5DmnHQQlAttwOzL0/edit#gid=1667359942

Democrats at 42.7% turnout

If it can go up about 3% a day that would be over 70% by Election Day...

[Antonio the Sixth]

Is someone keeping track of how many mail ballots are being received every day in FL and NC, and what their breakdown is? There are still 40% of requested ballots unreturned in Florida and almost 50% in NC, any expectation how much of this will drop by election day?

NC can continue to receive ballots after election day (unless the SCOTUS doesn't weigh in or something) but that might create chaos on election day, and Florida can't, so getting that return rate up seems like a priority for Democrats.

[Minnesota Mike]

I assume Florida casting more than 10 million votes in the election is a given as 9.4 million were cast in 2016.  Not sure if they can hit 10.5 million.

Voter turnout in Florida in 2016 was 74.5%. There are 14,441,869 registered voters in Florida at book close 2020. Same percentage turnout in 2020 as 2016 would be about 10,759,000. My guess is we end up over 11,000,000.

[Kirby Reed]

I still can’t post links but Harris County, TX just passed 1,000,000 votes!! That total as of today is 1,020,885! They’re doing incredible work right now and that should be celebrated.

[philly09]

Some people don't like Ralston's take.

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1319809635428093952

[Storr]

I still can’t post links but Harris County, TX just passed 1,000,000 votes!! That total as of today is 1,020,885! They’re doing incredible work right now and that should be celebrated.

That is 77.8% of 2016!

[BidenHarris2020]

https://twitter.com/BrianDMcBride/status/1319788990162210816?s=19

[Lief 🗽]

Wow! Still some chance of salvaging Florida?

https://twitter.com/electionsmith/status/1319806706164113409

[NCJeff]

We need to stop obsessing over some arbitrary Dem-Rep difference number for Florida.  All about Turnout.  Only 74.5% of Dems showed up in 2016 vs 81.2% of Repubs....that was the ballgame.

Here is where we are after this morning's update from the Florida SOS.

This chart provides Turnout to date by Party, where they were at the end of all EV in 2016 and what the Final Turnout numbers were.   Dems are way ahead of where they were last time with 10 days of EV left.

We need a tracker like this updated daily if possible!  Wonderful and useful image!

Will do, after each morning when the Florida DOE updates (before 9am)
I will also give updates on how the key big counties are doing.

You are awesome, we really appreciate it.

I second this, this chart is exactly what the doctor ordered!

[philly09]

https://twitter.com/paulgcauchi/status/1319802594550833153

https://twitter.com/DaNumbersGuy/status/1319806258682224640

[DaleCooper]

Wow! Still some chance of salvaging Florida?

No way. Biden's ceiling in Florida is one vote less than whatever Trump's total is.

[Tekken_Guy]

Wow! Still some chance of salvaging Florida?

No way. Biden's ceiling in Florida is one vote less than whatever Trump's total is.

Reminds me of the "Running Man" from Zelda. He always beats you by exactly one second.

[forza nocta]

States ranked by early vote turnout RELATIVE to what their own total turnout was in 2016

1. Montana - 40.1%
2. Colorado - 38.7
3. Vermont - 38.4%
4. New Jersey - 37.4%
5. North Carolina - 36.9%
6. Texas - 36.7%
7. Washington - 35.7%
8. Georgia - 33.5%
9. Florida - 32.7%
10. Maine - 32.4%
11. New Mexico - 30.4%
12. Oregon - 30.4%
13. Minnesota - 29.9%
14. Iowa - 29.9%
15. Virginia - 29.2%

Source: I did the math

Texas obviously drops from #1 here since they were bottom 5 in 2016 turnout, but the state is still impressively high. The first 4 states are entirely mail-ballot states.

[DaleCooper]

Wow! Still some chance of salvaging Florida?

No way. Biden's ceiling in Florida is one vote less than whatever Trump's total is.

Reminds me of the "Running Man" from Zelda. He always beats you by exactly one second.

Love it! Believe it or not, I was actually replaying Ocarina of Time today!

[Non Swing Voter]

States ranked by early vote turnout RELATIVE to what their own total turnout was in 2016

1. Montana - 40.1%
2. Colorado - 38.7
3. Vermont - 38.4%
4. New Jersey - 37.4%
5. North Carolina - 36.9%
6. Texas - 36.7%
7. Washington - 35.7%
8. Georgia - 33.5%
9. Florida - 32.7%
10. Maine - 32.4%
11. New Mexico - 30.4%
12. Oregon - 30.4%
13. Minnesota - 29.9%
14. Iowa - 29.9%
15. Virginia - 29.2%

Source: I did the math

I did this to see which states were being lowballed with their "turnout of their 2016 vote" number due to having high turnout and vice versa. Texas obviously drops from #1 here since they were bottom 5 in 2016 turnout, but the state is still impressively high. The first 4 states are entirely mail-ballot states.

I am confused by this.  What is the percentage of?

[Cashew]

Why is everybody so obsessed with Florida? It has no senate race on the ballot, there is no chance of flipping one of the state houses, and it will likely only vote for Biden if he doesn't need it.