2020 Absentee/Early Voting megathread 2

[Stockdale for Veep]

Will souls to the polls be effected by church closures due to covid?

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

27k added in Harris, putting total at ~1,090,000. They only need to average less than 45k a day to hit 2016 turnout, and that will easily happen. Even on the slowest day last week it was over 45k. I’m setting a goal of 1.4 million by end of Friday.

[walleye26]

What’s Collin County at in terms of votes? Denton and Hays have exceeded 2016 already.

[Gass3268]

Madison, Wisconsin will probably pass 100,00 votes either tomorrow or Tuesday (depending on the mail).

https://twitter.com/madisonwiclerk/status/1320536948067520514?s=21

[walleye26]

Madison, Wisconsin will probably pass 100,00 votes either tomorrow or Tuesday (depending on the mail).

https://twitter.com/madisonwiclerk/status/1320536948067520514?s=21

Madison’s numbers actually seem quite low to me. 112K is only 60% of registered voters, I would have suspected every last voter in Madison to be out voting since its Titanium D.

[Bootes Void]

Madison, Wisconsin will probably pass 100,00 votes either tomorrow or Tuesday (depending on the mail).

https://twitter.com/madisonwiclerk/status/1320536948067520514?s=21

Madison’s numbers actually seem quite low to me. 112K is only 60% of registered voters, I would have suspected every last voter in Madison to be out voting since its Titanium D.

60% of registered voters is pretty good. This doesn't include those who may vote in person or on election. Day

[Gass3268]

Madison, Wisconsin will probably pass 100,00 votes either tomorrow or Tuesday (depending on the mail).

https://twitter.com/madisonwiclerk/status/1320536948067520514?s=21

Madison’s numbers actually seem quite low to me. 112K is only 60% of registered voters, I would have suspected every last voter in Madison to be out voting since its Titanium D.

If they are at 60% now, they should get to 70-75% by Election Day. We would then be looking at over 90% when it is all said and done.

[Non Swing Voter]

Madison, Wisconsin will probably pass 100,00 votes either tomorrow or Tuesday (depending on the mail).

https://twitter.com/madisonwiclerk/status/1320536948067520514?s=21

Wow registering 30,000 in a city that size so recently seems like a massive amount.  Did Dems basically just microtarget Madison and its suburbs to win Wisconsin this year?

[Dr. Arch]

Madison, Wisconsin will probably pass 100,00 votes either tomorrow or Tuesday (depending on the mail).

https://twitter.com/madisonwiclerk/status/1320536948067520514?s=21

Wow registering 30,000 in a city that size so recently seems like a massive amount.  Did Dems basically just microtarget Madison and its suburbs to win Wisconsin this year?

It's been a statewide effort that is worlds more effective than whatever HRC did in 2016.

[Non Swing Voter]

Madison, Wisconsin will probably pass 100,00 votes either tomorrow or Tuesday (depending on the mail).

https://twitter.com/madisonwiclerk/status/1320536948067520514?s=21

Wow registering 30,000 in a city that size so recently seems like a massive amount.  Did Dems basically just microtarget Madison and its suburbs to win Wisconsin this year?

It's been a statewide effort that is worlds more effective than whatever HRC did in 2016.

It's becoming pretty clear that the HRC was run horribly.  Next time Democrats should have a more fair primary process rather than anointing a campaign.  Otherwise you get a campaign that's objectively weak. 

[ExSky]

Madison, Wisconsin will probably pass 100,00 votes either tomorrow or Tuesday (depending on the mail).

https://twitter.com/madisonwiclerk/status/1320536948067520514?s=21

Wow registering 30,000 in a city that size so recently seems like a massive amount.  Did Dems basically just microtarget Madison and its suburbs to win Wisconsin this year?

It's been a statewide effort that is worlds more effective than whatever HRC did in 2016.

It's becoming pretty clear that the HRC was run horribly.  Next time Democrats should have a more fair primary process rather than anointing a campaign.  Otherwise you get a campaign that's objectively weak. 

Hillary was given every advantage in the primary. Biden had a campaign that was being laughed at....and then the voters resurrected him and sh**t everybody else down. Biden is true appeal

[Virginiá]

It's becoming pretty clear that the HRC was run horribly.  Next time Democrats should have a more fair primary process rather than anointing a campaign.  Otherwise you get a campaign that's objectively weak. 

To be fair, that was coming off 8 years of a Democratic president who spent more time slightly underwater approvals-wise, and with a candidate who was the 2nd most unpopular presidential candidate in history (#1 being Trump). Point being that the Democratic base was unmotivated and Clinton was falling from one bad news cycle to the next.

Meanwhile, now an unpopular and highly controversial incumbent Republican president has fired up the Democratic Party like none other, alienated many voters who previously supported him or might have but sat out 2016, in addition to the myriad drama of 2020.

A lot of this is situational or very candidate-specific. The campaigns themselves weren't terrible. Like, Biden hasn't heavily contested Georgia or Texas but is still in the running to win one or both of them. So campaign investment or lack thereof isn't necessarily a dealbreaker.

[JerryArkansas]

It's becoming pretty clear that the HRC was run horribly.  Next time Democrats should have a more fair primary process rather than anointing a campaign.  Otherwise you get a campaign that's objectively weak. 

A lot of this is situational or very candidate-specific. The campaigns themselves weren't terrible. Like, Biden hasn't heavily contested Georgia or Texas but is still in the running to win one or both of them. So campaign investment or lack thereof isn't necessarily a dealbreaker.

Remember this was the man who had zero infrastructure in nearly all of the Super Tuesday states and yet won most of them.

As you said this entire election since 2016 has been motivated by the idea of getting Trump out of office.

[Storr]

What’s Collin County at in terms of votes? Denton and Hays have exceeded 2016 already.

And Williamson. But Collin County is: 332,475 (in person) + 23,136 (mail) = 355,611 / 361,419 (2016 vote)= 0.9839

source for in person vote
source for mail in vote (note no mail on sunday so no new mail votes today)

[Non Swing Voter]

It's becoming pretty clear that the HRC was run horribly.  Next time Democrats should have a more fair primary process rather than anointing a campaign.  Otherwise you get a campaign that's objectively weak. 

To be fair, that was coming off 8 years of a Democratic president who spent more time slightly underwater approvals-wise, and with a candidate who was the 2nd most unpopular presidential candidate in history (#1 being Trump). Point being that the Democratic base was unmotivated and Clinton was falling from one bad news cycle to the next.

Meanwhile, now an unpopular and highly controversial incumbent Republican president has fired up the Democratic Party like none other, alienated many voters who previously supported him or might have but sat out 2016, in addition to the myriad drama of 2020.

A lot of this is situational or very candidate-specific. The campaigns themselves weren't terrible. Like, Biden hasn't heavily contested Georgia or Texas but is still in the running to win one or both of them. So campaign investment or lack thereof isn't necessarily a dealbreaker.

I agree with the above.  That's why it is highly annoying that Dems just anointed her rather than running a real primary.  It would have been the same if the GOP anointed Cruz or Rubio instead of Trump.  They would have probably been weaker candidates than Trump.  Running a fair primary will bring out the best candidate.  I guess when I said "HRC campaign" what I should have really said was "HRC" herself but I wanted to be nice to her because the Comey thing was bullsh*t.

And I am definitely not a Bernie Sanders fan as people here know, but the primary process that year was objectively rubbish.

[Non Swing Voter]

After today, Dem turnout in Miami Dade is 41.8%.  Still on the lower end of Dem counties and below their 47.8% statewide average but it's definitely jumped significantly from where it was a few days ago.  The Obama rally seems to have had some impact.

Dems should just focus heavily on boosting Dem turnout there.  The I-4 corridor is looking pretty good for them right now.  I think if they can win I-4 and hold decent margins in South Florida + the gains in Duval, I don't see how Trump wins even with huge turnout in the Panhandle.

[Virginiá]

And I am definitely not a Bernie Sanders fan as people here know, but the primary process that year was objectively rubbish.

Yeah, I agree. Ideally, a competitive primary would have put Clinton's flaws to the test and given a less controversial candidate a chance to take on Trump. Not to say the primary electorate wouldn't have ended up picking Clinton anyway, but it at least would have made it more possible.

I think if there is any lesson the party should take away from the last two nominating contests, it's that a candidate preemptively clearing the field is a bad thing and likely to not end well.

[psychprofessor]

Interesting link - Bloomberg's data company estimates Biden is up by 11 in Florida with modeled vote so far - or over 600k votes.

https://www.hawkfish.us/early-vote-florida/fl-102520

[Adam Griffin]

Georgia, Sunday Final:, 52,784 votes were cast on Sunday.

This includes 37,545 in-person votes and 15,239 mail ballots.

Total ballots cast in GA are now 1,794,794 in-person & 959,541 by mail, for a grand total of 2,754,335 (66.12% of 2016 total vote).

[republican1993]

Interesting link - Bloomberg's data company estimates Biden is up by 11 in Florida with modeled vote so far - or over 600k votes.

https://www.hawkfish.us/early-vote-florida/fl-102520

that looks good for trump imo with the remaining votes outstanding for him to move the needle based on this

[Bootes Void]

Interesting link - Bloomberg's data company estimates Biden is up by 11 in Florida with modeled vote so far - or over 600k votes.

https://www.hawkfish.us/early-vote-florida/fl-102520

that looks good for trump imo with the remaining votes outstanding for him to move the needle based on this

I don't think everyone in the yet to vote will be voting as thereigjt be atleast 1 to 2 million of those who will be abstaining

[forsythvoter]

I think turnout will be in the 10M - 10.5M range. If 10M, there are 4.3M votes ballots outstanding and Trump would need to win them by 58%-42% to win (including the remaining outstanding VBM ballots of which there are still a good number). If 10.5M, Trump would need to win the remaining votes by 56% - 44% or better to win.

Interesting link - Bloomberg's data company estimates Biden is up by 11 in Florida with modeled vote so far - or over 600k votes.

https://www.hawkfish.us/early-vote-florida/fl-102520

that looks good for trump imo with the remaining votes outstanding for him to move the needle based on this

I don't think everyone in the yet to vote will be voting as thereigjt be atleast 1 to 2 million of those who will be abstaining

[Horus]

I think turnout will be in the 10M - 10.5M range. If 10M, there are 4.3M votes ballots outstanding and Trump would need to win them by 58%-42% to win (including the remaining outstanding VBM ballots of which there are still a good number). If 10.5M, Trump would need to win the remaining votes by 56% - 44% or better to win.

Interesting link - Bloomberg's data company estimates Biden is up by 11 in Florida with modeled vote so far - or over 600k votes.

https://www.hawkfish.us/early-vote-florida/fl-102520

that looks good for trump imo with the remaining votes outstanding for him to move the needle based on this

I don't think everyone in the yet to vote will be voting as thereigjt be atleast 1 to 2 million of those who will be abstaining

What I'm getting from this is Florida is gonna be a point or two either way, close until the end exactly as expected.

[Non Swing Voter]

Have the early vote totals influenced anyone's opinions on any states?

For me I think I'm more optimistic about North Carolina and Georgia.  Especially North Carolina.  We keep hearing about the urban and suburban areas experiencing epic growth there and the rural areas in population decline.  The raw numbers out of some of the democratic counties seem to be bearing that out.  If the urban and suburban areas trend left this election as they are suspected to this could be a double whammy against Republicans: higher margins + a lot more raw vote out of those counties.

[Oryxslayer]

Have the early vote totals influenced anyone's opinions on any states?

For me I think I'm more optimistic about North Carolina and Georgia.  Especially North Carolina.  We keep hearing about the urban and suburban areas experiencing epic growth there and the rural areas in population decline.  The raw numbers out of some of the democratic counties seem to be bearing that out.  If the urban and suburban areas trend left this election as they are suspected to this could be a double whammy against Republicans: higher margins + a lot more raw vote out of those counties.

Not at all, other than revealing that Texas voters know that they live in a tossup state. The GOP is going to get their vote out closer to and on E-Day, countering what Dems build up now. It'll come down to who did better during their favorable timeslots, which is only knowable after the votes are tabulated. Anything else is just tea leaves/astrology.

Of course, this is the thread with a schedule about when to gloat and worry, so I am probably not the norm.