2020 Absentee/Early Voting megathread 2

[Adam Griffin]

Georgia, 5 PM Sunday:, 48,786 votes have been cast on Sunday.

This includes 35,665 in-person votes and 13,121 mail ballots.

Total ballots cast in GA are now 1,792,534 in-person & 957,803 by mail, for a grand total of 2,750,337 (66.02% of 2016 total vote).

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Travis finishes at 10k for the day, putting them at over 425k total. They should break the 2016 on Tuesday, and possibly the 484k 2018 record, too. To hit the latter, they need to average 30k a day. My hope is for Travis to get to 550k by the end of Friday. Ambitious? Certainly. But that would leave room for Travis Dems to get 100k out on Election Day to hit that coveted 75% turnout.

[republican1993]

MN, WI,and MI are around 40-45% of 2016 turnout - how does this look to anyone? not sure what to think of it.

[Dr. Arch]

MN, WI,and MI are around 40-45% of 2016 turnout - how does this look to anyone? not sure what to think of it.

They'll at least get to their usual rates of 69-80%. You can't count MN's turnout other than on Fridays, since that's the only date on which they update.

On the rest, for WI, what matters is who is turning out in the state, as in, the counties that are pulling more than their weight in the electorate. In D favored elections, Dane punches way above the line, while Milwaukee simply turns out at about their weight (rather than below). So far, that's what we're seeing this year in WI

I don't know much about Michigan.

[Splash]

MN, WI,and MI are around 40-45% of 2016 turnout - how does this look to anyone? not sure what to think of it.

For absentee ballots, I think each state is surpassing where they were in terms of returned ballots at this point in 2016 but I am exactly sure about MN. In Michigan, this really isn't a useful comparison though; this is the first general election that the state has had no-reason absentee voting available to everyone.

[republican1993]

MN, WI,and MI are around 40-45% of 2016 turnout - how does this look to anyone? not sure what to think of it.

They'll at least get to their usual rates of 69-80%. You can't count MN's turnout other than on Fridays, since that's the only date in which they update.

On the rest, for WI, what matters is who is turning out in the state, as in, the counties that are pulling more than their weight in the electorate. In D favored elections, Dane punches way above the line, while Milwaukee simply turns out at about their weight (rather than below). So far, that's what we're seeing this year in WI

I don't know much about Michigan.

got it - out of all of these states is "republicans" doing the best?

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Hidalgo adds 2500 (140k total), Cameron adds 1400 (73k), and Webb adds 1000 (37k). Not too bad considering the dramatic slowdown in other parts of the state as well on Sunday. That puts Hidalgo over 80% of 2016 turnout, Cameron at 79%, and Webb at 65%.

I’d like to push Hidalgo and Cameron to over 100% by the end of Friday, and Webb to 90%.

Before doomers bitch about Webb, consider this is an all time record in EV for them and that 2/3 of votes in 2016 in that county came on Election day

[Splash]

This is a bit old but I don't think it's been posted here yet:

https://www.bridgemi.com/michigan-government/michigan-early-voting-returns-heaviest-so-far-democratic-counties

Michigan’s most Democratic counties are among those that have returned the most absentee ballots so far in an election that is shattering turnout records, according to a Bridge analysis of state records.

Bridge’s analysis shows that about 60 percent of the ballots returned through Monday came from eight counties that Clinton won in 2016, nearly 900,000 of the 1.5 million ballots.

Of the 19 counties where Republican President Trump got 65 percent of the vote or more in 2016, 14.6 percent of registered voters have returned a mail-in ballot.

In the counties Clinton won, the return rate is 20.8 percent.

And in Detroit, which favored Clinton by 95 percent of the vote in 2016, 73,000 voters — nearly half of those who sought ballots — have already returned them.

[DaleCooper]

Looking good in Michigan!

[roxas11]

The news about Hurricane Zeta hitting the Florida panhandle sounds bad for the GOP and it just shows why trump being so against voting by mail was such a awful idea in the first place  

He is betting everything on all his voters all being able to come out on election day and now this Hurricane could effect that. even if a few of his voters decide to not show up because of this it could be the end for him

on a side note I hope the people who are effected by Hurricane Zeta stay safe

[Dr. Arch]

MN, WI,and MI are around 40-45% of 2016 turnout - how does this look to anyone? not sure what to think of it.

They'll at least get to their usual rates of 69-80%. You can't count MN's turnout other than on Fridays, since that's the only date in which they update.

On the rest, for WI, what matters is who is turning out in the state, as in, the counties that are pulling more than their weight in the electorate. In D favored elections, Dane punches way above the line, while Milwaukee simply turns out at about their weight (rather than below). So far, that's what we're seeing this year in WI

I don't know much about Michigan.

got it - out of all of these states is "republicans" doing the best?

I don't understand this question.

[DaleCooper]

MN, WI,and MI are around 40-45% of 2016 turnout - how does this look to anyone? not sure what to think of it.

They'll at least get to their usual rates of 69-80%. You can't count MN's turnout other than on Fridays, since that's the only date in which they update.

On the rest, for WI, what matters is who is turning out in the state, as in, the counties that are pulling more than their weight in the electorate. In D favored elections, Dane punches way above the line, while Milwaukee simply turns out at about their weight (rather than below). So far, that's what we're seeing this year in WI

I don't know much about Michigan.

got it - out of all of these states is "republicans" doing the best?

I don't understand this question.

Presumably it's: which state are Republicans doing best in?

[Lief 🗽]

Wow! Could Biden still have a slim chance in Florida?
https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1320515676520566790?s=21

[DINGO Joe]

The news about Hurricane Zeta hitting the Florida panhandle sounds bad for the GOP and it just shows why trump being so against voting by mail was such a awful idea in the first place  

He is betting everything on all his voters all being able to come out on election day and now this Hurricane could effect that. even if a few of his voters decide to not show up because of this it could be the end for him

on a side note I hope the people who are effected by Hurricane Zeta stay safe

Well, at this point, it's actually forecast for Southeast Louisiana though we've been in the cone 7 times now and are 0-7, so maybe it will go to Florida.  It's not going to be  a strong storm and it'll be fast moving so it'll be a nuisance but little worse than that.  

[Bootes Void]

Wow! Could Biden still have a slim chance in Florida?
https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1320515676520566790?s=21

Souls to the polls and Dems finally stop procrastinating.

Also why are you are saying it like Biden is an underdog in Florida, he is probably a favourite in Florida for the time being

[Dr. Arch]

MN, WI,and MI are around 40-45% of 2016 turnout - how does this look to anyone? not sure what to think of it.

They'll at least get to their usual rates of 69-80%. You can't count MN's turnout other than on Fridays, since that's the only date in which they update.

On the rest, for WI, what matters is who is turning out in the state, as in, the counties that are pulling more than their weight in the electorate. In D favored elections, Dane punches way above the line, while Milwaukee simply turns out at about their weight (rather than below). So far, that's what we're seeing this year in WI

I don't know much about Michigan.

got it - out of all of these states is "republicans" doing the best?

I don't understand this question.

Presumably it's: which state are Republicans doing best in?

Without knowing much about Michigan, I can't answer that question. I can say that it's arguable that Democrats are doing better than 2018 here, closer to the latest WI supreme court election.

[Non Swing Voter]

Right now elections project says 59.1 million voted.  But there are definitely states where the numbers are delayed and I wonder how many ballots are currently in the mail and not yet received.  I wonder if more like 70 million people have already voted.  The time is really dwindling for Trump to turn around his poll numbers.  He's basically hoping the polls are massively off at this point.

[ultraviolet]

Wow! Could Biden still have a slim chance in Florida?
https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1320515676520566790?s=21

He always did 🙄🙄🙄

[Landslide Lyndon]

Right now elections project says 59.1 million voted.  But there are definitely states where the numbers are delayed and I wonder how many ballots are currently in the mail and not yet received.  I wonder if more like 70 million people have already voted.  The time is really dwindling for Trump to turn around his poll numbers.  He's basically hoping the polls are massively off at this point.

Couvillon puts the number at 61.4 million. I don't know why he is so much ahead of McDonald.

[dspNY]

Right now elections project says 59.1 million voted.  But there are definitely states where the numbers are delayed and I wonder how many ballots are currently in the mail and not yet received.  I wonder if more like 70 million people have already voted.  The time is really dwindling for Trump to turn around his poll numbers.  He's basically hoping the polls are massively off at this point.

Couvillon puts the number at 61.4 million. I don't know why he is so much ahead of McDonald.

It's more than that because New York State is not making its numbers available (NYC is I believe but not the whole state). California also has hundreds of thousands of ballots in the mail that are yet to be received per day due to their sheer size. I'd guess the count is more like 63-64 million ATM

[Landslide Lyndon]

Right now elections project says 59.1 million voted.  But there are definitely states where the numbers are delayed and I wonder how many ballots are currently in the mail and not yet received.  I wonder if more like 70 million people have already voted.  The time is really dwindling for Trump to turn around his poll numbers.  He's basically hoping the polls are massively off at this point.

Couvillon puts the number at 61.4 million. I don't know why he is so much ahead of McDonald.

It's more than that because New York State is not making its numbers available (NYC is I believe but not the whole state).

I get it but I imagine that both of them work with official numbers, not hypotheticals and guestimates.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

https://twitter.com/Andy_Eads/status/1320498022065864704

Denton County surpassed 100% of 2016 vote today as well!

[Oryxslayer]

Wow! Could Biden still have a slim chance in Florida?
https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1320515676520566790?s=21

S O U L S T O T H E P O L L S

also

Hidalgo adds 2500 (140k total), Cameron adds 1400 (73k), and Webb adds 1000 (37k). Not too bad considering the dramatic slowdown in other parts of the state as well on Sunday. That puts Hidalgo over 80% of 2016 turnout, Cameron at 79%, and Webb at 65%.

I’d like to push Hidalgo and Cameron to over 100% by the end of Friday, and Webb to 90%.

Before doomers bitch about Webb, consider this is an all time record in EV for them and that 2/3 of votes in 2016 in that county came on Election day

This is why I hate wasserman's worrying about South Texas and the RGV. Despite the region's blue hue, it has a horrible voting rate. This is high turnout for the region, it just pails in comparison to the metros. Its also a poor, rural, high-minority area, and each of those things increases the numbers of E-Day voters and decreases the number of Early voters. Same thing with the Black belt.

[EJ24]

Wow! Could Biden still have a slim chance in Florida?
https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1320515676520566790?s=21

*clears throat*

OOOOOOHHHHHHHHHHH YEEEEEEEEEEAAAAAAHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!

[NOVA Green]

The news about Hurricane Zeta hitting the Florida panhandle sounds bad for the GOP and it just shows why trump being so against voting by mail was such a awful idea in the first place  

He is betting everything on all his voters all being able to come out on election day and now this Hurricane could effect that. even if a few of his voters decide to not show up because of this it could be the end for him

on a side note I hope the people who are effected by Hurricane Zeta stay safe

Well, at this point, it's actually forecast for Southeast Louisiana though we've been in the cone 7 times now and are 0-7, so maybe it will go to Florida.  It's not going to be  a strong storm and it'll be fast moving so it'll be a nuisance but little worse than that.  

Thanks for the update Dingo Joe.... Stay safe, since as someone who lived in Houston TX, Hurricane's are nothing to sneeze at and are extremely volatile and the closest to water with storm surges perhaps the most dangerous, not to mention the impact of heavy winds and trees falling into homes and roads....

When I lived in TX we usually also had migrations of Gators, Snakes, and Fire Ants during heavy weather events, which can also add to the chaos, death, and injuries normally associated with the local Wildlife "doing their thing" in a part of the United States never really intended for massive population levels.