Trump approval ratings thread 1.6

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Fox News, July 12-15, 1104 RV (1-month change)

Approve 45 (+1)
Disapprove 54 (-1)

Strongly approve 28 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 45 (nc)

Biden 49 (-1), Trump 41 (+3)

The most important tidbit from that poll is the total collapse of immigration as the primary issue for voters. From 21% thinking it was the most important issue last April to only 2% now.

[GeorgiaModerate]

ARG economic survey (monthly), July 17-20, 1100 adults including 994 RV

Adults:

Approve 36 (-2)
Disapprove 60 (+2)


RV:

Approve 36 (-2)
Disapprove 60 (+2)

[Person Man]

ARG economic survey (monthly), July 17-20, 1100 adults including 994 RV

Adults:

Approve 36 (-2)
Disapprove 60 (+2)


RV:

Approve 36 (-2)
Disapprove 60 (+2)

Its getting pretty close to freezing. I’ve seen it snow at 36 before.

[GeorgiaModerate]

ARG economic survey (monthly), July 17-20, 1100 adults including 994 RV

Adults:

Approve 36 (-2)
Disapprove 60 (+2)


RV:

Approve 36 (-2)
Disapprove 60 (+2)

Its getting pretty close to freezing. I’ve seen it snow at 36 before.

ARG (always a bad pollster for Trump) has gotten close to freezing, but not quite there; their lowest so far has been 33/62 in August 2017.

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

Here comes the Trump rebound, like always lol 😂

[woodley park]

ARG economic survey (monthly), July 17-20, 1100 adults including 994 RV

Adults:

Approve 36 (-2)
Disapprove 60 (+2)


RV:

Approve 36 (-2)
Disapprove 60 (+2)

Its getting pretty close to freezing. I’ve seen it snow at 36 before.

ARG (always a bad pollster for Trump) has gotten close to freezing, but not quite there; their lowest so far has been 33/62 in August 2017.

We are getting closer, but I still don't think we're at rock bottom.

[VAR]

Global Strategy Group/Navigator Research
July 16-20
1015 RV

Approve 38% (-1)
Disapprove 61% (+2)

https://navigatorresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Navigating-Coronavirus-Update-07.22.20.pdf

[VAR]

Morning Consult
July 17-19
1991 RV
MoE: 2%

Approve 40% (nc)
Disapprove 57% (nc)
Undecided 3% (nc)

https://assets.morningconsult.com/wp-uploads/2020/07/22072029/200766_crosstabs_POLITICO_RVs_v2.pdf

[Person Man]

So Trump's perceived performance isn't improving. In the 538, he's improving slightly in the election, but sagging in the job approval. I don't know what that really means.

[BobbieMac]

Statistical noise, and the order polls are released.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, July 19-21, 1500 adults including 1222 RV

Adults:

Approve 42 (+3)
Disapprove 53 (-1)

Strongly approve 21 (-2)
Strongly disapprove 41 (-4)


RV:

Approve 42 (+1)
Disapprove 56 (nc)

Strongly approve 23 (-4)
Strongly disapprove 46 (-2)

Biden 48 (-1), Trump 41 (+1)

GCB: D 47 (-1), R 40 (nc)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Arizona: PPP, July 17-18, 960 RV

Approve 42
Disapprove 52

Biden 49, Trump 45

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ipsos Core Political Data (weekly), July 15-21, 4430 adults including 3744 RV

Adults:

Approve 38 (-2)
Disapprove 57 (+1)

Strongly approve 22 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 46 (+1)

Biden 43 (nc), Trump 34 (-2)


RV:

Approve 40 (nc)
Disapprove 58 (+2)

Strongly approve 24 (+2)
Strongly disapprove 47 (+1)

Biden 46 (-1), Trump 38 (+1)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Texas: Quinnipiac, July 16-20, 880 RV

Approve 45
Disapprove 51

Biden 45, Trump 44

Cornyn 47, Hegar 38

[pbrower2a]

Texas: Quinnipiac, July 16-20, 880 RV

Approve 45
Disapprove 51

Biden 45, Trump 44

Cornyn 47, Hegar 38

Texas: Quinnipiac, July 16-20, 880 RV

Approve 45
Disapprove 51

Biden 45, Trump 44

Cornyn 47, Hegar 38

Ipsos Core Political Data (weekly), July 15-21, 4430 adults including 3744 RV

Adults:

Approve 38 (-2)
Disapprove 57 (+1)

Strongly approve 22 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 46 (+1)

Biden 43 (nc), Trump 34 (-2)


RV:

Approve 40 (nc)
Disapprove 58 (+2)

Strongly approve 24 (+2)
Strongly disapprove 47 (+1)

Biden 46 (-1), Trump 38 (+1)

Texas: Quinnipiac, July 16-20, 880 RV

Approve 45
Disapprove 51

Biden 45, Trump 44

Cornyn 47, Hegar 38

My handicap of states decided by 10% or less (Maine excluded) does not change.

AZ Biden 80 Trump 20
FL Biden 70 Trump 30
GA Biden 70 Trump 30
IA Biden 40 Trump 60
ME Biden 99+ Trump 1 or less
MI Biden 99+ Trump  1 or less
MN Biden 99+ Trump  1 or less
NH Biden 99+ Trump  1 or less
NC Biden 70 Trump 30
OH Biden 70 Trump 30
PA Biden 99+ Trump  1 or less
TX Biden 60 Trump 40
WI Biden 99+ Trump  1 or less

I can add Alaska, Missouri, and Montana:

AK Trump 60 Biden 40
MO Trump 70 Biden 30
MT Trump 70 Biden 30

 

Trump approval 50-54%
Trump approval positive but under 50%
ties are in white
Trump approval negative but disapproval under 50%
Trump disapproval 50-54%
Trump disapproval 55% or higher

[GeorgiaModerate]

Florida: Quinnipiac, July 16-20, 924 RV (change from April)

Approve 40 (-5)
Disapprove 58 (+7)

Biden 51 (+5), Trump 38 (-4)

[woodley park]

Not good, but just wait until the public processes the 'somber bump'.

[pbrower2a]

Three statewide polls (MI, MN, PA) by FoX News:

Fox News state polls, July 18-20


Michigan (756 RV, change from April)

Approve 45 (-2)
Disapprove 54 (+3)

Strongly approve 26 (-4)
Strongly disapprove 47 (+7)

Biden 49 (nc), Trump 40 (-1)


Minnesota (776 RV, no prior)

Approve 42
Disapprove 57

Strongly approve 21
Strongly disapprove 48

Biden 51, Trump 38


Pennsylvania (793 RV, change from April)

Approve 43 (-4)
Disapprove 56 (+5)

Strongly approve 26 (-2)
Strongly disapprove 46 (+7)

Biden 50 (nc), Trump 39 (-3)

Florida: Quinnipiac, July 16-20, 924 RV (change from April)

Approve 40 (-5)
Disapprove 58 (+7)

Biden 51 (+5), Trump 38 (-4)

Event-related, but nothing is more obvious that one cannot undo death, especially mass death.

Other material:

With a surge of coronavirus cases in Florida making it a hotspot, voters say 79 - 20 percent that people in the state should be required to wear face masks in public, according to a Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pea-ack) University poll of registered voters in Florida released today. There is overwhelming support for requiring face masks among all ages and every other listed demographic group.

Eighty-three percent say the spread of the coronavirus is a serious problem in the state, while 16 percent say it is not.

Seventy percent consider the spread of the coronavirus in Florida "out of control." Twenty-four percent say it is "under control."

Looking back, 61 percent of voters think Governor Ron DeSantis reopened the economy "too quickly." Thirty-one percent think he reopened "at about the right pace" and 6 percent say he reopened "too slowly."

When it comes, however, to whether voters think the governor should issue a stay-at-home order for the state to slow the spread of the coronavirus, they are split. Forty-nine percent say yes, while 48 percent say no.

Rick Scott approval 41-44; Marco Rubio approval 40-44... the two Senators don;t seem to be hit too hard.

My handicap of states decided by 10% or less in 2016 changes big in Florida. Yes, it is one poll, but it relates to an indelible event, a disaster far worse than the usual one (hurricanes) that strike Florida. Democrat Obama and Republican Scott were a far better team in dealing with hurricanes than is Trump and de Santis with COVID-19.

AZ Biden 80 Trump 20
FL Biden 95 Trump 5 -- note the huge change.
GA Biden 70 Trump 30
IA Biden 40 Trump 60
ME Biden 99+ Trump 1 or less
MI Biden 99+ Trump  1 or less
MN Biden 99+ Trump  1 or less
NH Biden 99+ Trump  1 or less
NC Biden 70 Trump 30
OH Biden 70 Trump 30
PA Biden 99+ Trump  1 or less
TX Biden 60 Trump 40
WI Biden 99+ Trump  1 or less

I can add Alaska, Missouri, and Montana:

AK Trump 60 Biden 40
MO Trump 70 Biden 30
MT Trump 70 Biden 30

 

Trump approval 50-54%
Trump approval positive but under 50%
ties are in white
Trump approval negative but disapproval under 50%
Trump disapproval 50-54%
Trump disapproval 55% or higher

[GeorgiaModerate]

Fox News state polls, July 18-20


Michigan (756 RV, change from April)

Approve 45 (-2)
Disapprove 54 (+3)

Strongly approve 26 (-4)
Strongly disapprove 47 (+7)

Biden 49 (nc), Trump 40 (-1)


Minnesota (776 RV, no prior)

Approve 42
Disapprove 57

Strongly approve 21
Strongly disapprove 48

Biden 51, Trump 38


Pennsylvania (793 RV, change from April)

Approve 43 (-4)
Disapprove 56 (+5)

Strongly approve 26 (-2)
Strongly disapprove 46 (+7)

Biden 50 (nc), Trump 39 (-3)

[pbrower2a]

Texas: Trump 49, Biden 45
Wisconsin: Biden 46, Trump 45
Pennsylvania: Trump 48, Biden 47
North Carolina: Trump 49, Biden 46
Montana: Trump 52, Biden 42
Michigan: Trump 50, Biden 45
Kentucky: Trump 60, Biden 34
Iowa: Biden 48, Trump 46
Georgia: Trump 49, Biden 46
Arizona: Biden 49, Biden 45

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/

This pollster seems junky looking at all of these... they are all out of sync

Trump winning Michigan and Pennsylvania but losing Arizona and Iowa?

T-R-A-S-H

Add to this, push-polling questions:





[/quote]


Black Lives Matters has said nothing about capitalism or the "traditional family". Its focus is on police brutality -- or more precisely, pathological policing.


I am not including these. Push polls must be excluded.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Some PPP state polls (no presidential matchups included):


Arizona, July 21-22, 816 RV:

Approve 46
Disapprove 49

Kelly 51, McSally 42


Maine, July 22-23, 561 RV:

Approve 42
Disapprove 55

Gideon 47, Collins 42


North Carolina, July 22-23, 939 RV:

Approve 45
Disapprove 52

Cunningham 48, Tillis 40

[GeorgiaModerate]

Michigan: Gravis, July 22, 754 LV

Approve 49
Disapprove 48

Strongly approve 36
Strongly disapprove 41

Biden 51, Trump 42

Peters 49, James 39


Wisconsin: Gravis, July 22, 796 RV

Approve 46
Disapprove 49

Strongly approve 37
Strongly disapprove 43

Biden 50, Trump 42


It's amusing that they show Trump with such relatively high approval numbers, but still losing by a bunch to Biden.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Echelon Insights, July 17-22, 1000 LV (change from June)

Approve 37 (-4)
Disapprove 60 (+2)

Biden 53 (+3), Trump 38 (-4)

With third parties: Biden 50, Trump 37, Jorgensen 3, Hawkins 1

GCB: D 51, R 37

[pbrower2a]

Some PPP state polls (no presidential matchups included):


Arizona, July 21-22, 816 RV:

Approve 46
Disapprove 49

Kelly 51, McSally 42


Maine, July 22-23, 561 RV:

Approve 42
Disapprove 55

Gideon 47, Collins 42


North Carolina, July 22-23, 939 RV:

Approve 45
Disapprove 52

Cunningham 48, Tillis 40

AZ Biden 65 Trump 35
FL Biden 95 Trump 5 -- note the huge change.
GA Biden 70 Trump 30
IA Biden 40 Trump 60
ME Biden 99+ Trump 1 or less
MI Biden 99+ Trump  1 or less
MN Biden 99+ Trump  1 or less
NH Biden 99+ Trump  1 or less
NC Biden 70 Trump 30
OH Biden 70 Trump 30
PA Biden 99+ Trump  1 or less
TX Biden 60 Trump 40
WI Biden 99+ Trump  1 or less

I can add Alaska, Missouri, and Montana:

AK Trump 60 Biden 40
MO Trump 70 Biden 30
MT Trump 70 Biden 30

Subtle category change for Arizona, as with Michigan in the FoX polls. The Gravis polls have weird numbers of approval for the match-up for Michigan...
 

Trump approval 50-54%
Trump approval positive but under 50%
ties are in white
Trump approval negative but disapproval under 50%
Trump disapproval 50-54%
Trump disapproval 55% or higher






[/quote]

[GeorgiaModerate]

Pennsylvania: Gravis, July 22-24, 1006 LV

Approve 47
Disapprove 50

Strongly approve 35
Strongly disapprove 44

Biden 48, Trump 45

The danger for Trump may lie in among the undecided voters (8% in this poll) who indicate that they disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as President by a 29%-69% margin.  The undecided voters also approve of the Job performance of the two polled statewide elected Democrats Wolf and Casey by a 67%-19% and 56%-22% margin, respectively.