Trump approval ratings thread 1.6

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Fox News, Feb. 23-26, 1000 RV (1-month change)

Approve 47 (+2)
Disapprove 52 (-2)

This is Trump's best showing in this poll since the early months of his Presidency.

Economy Approval went down, though. First effect of coronavirus? I expect his approval to go down as well.

Economy Approval:
54 (-2)
42 (+4)

The Trump economy has always been a piper tiger. He inherited an objectively good economy and has done nothing to impact it.

Cutting taxes and raising deficit spending adding a Keynesian boost. It's a tragedy to boost the deficit when the economy's at full blast since we need to be able to borrow when we really need it, but it does have an effect.

That's how Populist Boomers roll! We spent like there is NO TOMORROW! We are going to spent all we want and we'll make Millennials pay for it, hahaha! 




https://law.marquette.edu/poll/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/MLSP58Toplines.pdf
FEB 19-23, 2020
A/B
Marquette Law School
1,000   RV

WI
48/48   (Economy 56/41)


https://scholars.unh.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1575&context=survey_center_polls
FEB 19-25, 2020
B
University of New Hampshire
576   LV

NH
45/53  (Economy 57/38)



https://assets.documentcloud.org/documents/6788733/FULL-RESULTS-Morning-Call-Muhlenberg-College.pdf
FEB 12-20, 2020
A+
Muhlenberg College
424   RV

PA
42/50 (Economy 58/34)


People love Trump Economy! 

The economy hasn't tanked yet.

But did you see what happened to the stock market indices last week? The DJIA topped off at 29K, and it is unlikely to be there again for a long time. A loss of one tenth of the valuation of securities is a usual sign of a recession. Five straight losses isn't definitive, but if I had some spare cash I wouldn't be buying into a stock market that has just shown a near-vertical slope.  90-day certificate of deposit which is good for getting about a 1% rate of return per year, which is better than not having the return of my money.  Only fools try to time the market. Why buy in at 25K when you might do so at 18K?

Price-earnings ratios are unusually high, and the inverted yield curve implies that a bunch of firms on life support will have the credit cut off... or have the plug pulled on their life support. Over-leveraged companies may find that there are no more cash infusions...  In essence, many accounts receivable will no longer be receivable.  A credit crunch implies that retailers will have to get more fussy about selling big-ticket stuff on credit, so consumer purchases plummet.

Or, to spoof the song "It's Beginning to Look a Lot Like Christmas"


It's beginning to look like a depression/
Just like 'twenty-nine!
Big ticket things do not sell/
Nobody's doing well/
But Donald Trump thinks everything's just fine!

It's beginning to look like a depression/
Every where you go!
When people can't pay the rent/
'Cause they're down to their last cent
all the bankers know!
All the bankers know!

 

As you said, "Only fools try to time the market."

So I'm definitely looking for possible bargains to buy as I'd already pulled some cash out of the market for other reasons before this. (A combination of harvesting tax losses at the end of last year and selling stuff that had grown larger than my preferred stake in any one stock.  Diversification is key to good investing.) Of course, I'll take into account short term effects, but so far there's no indication that this'll have any long term impact.  Obviously, I'm down YTD, but only 8%, which under the circumstances, is doing quite well.

I'm in no rush to buy, but I'm not going to let fears the market hasn't hit bottom deter me if I have reason to believe I'll make money long term. (Or even short term in dividend income as I mainly invest in value stocks, not growth stocks, so value stocks with solid dividends that have taken a hit are worth getting.)  I'd write some more, but I have some research to do before deciding on what to buy.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

rbower, I'm not buying the market. When I buy, I'll buy individual stocks.  (The only funds I own are a small amount in a smallcap ETF as its a sector of the market that I have neither the time nor the expertise to pick individual stocks but I want some exposure for diversification reasons, and my SIMPLE IRA which offers only funds as options and which I will get out of as soon as I leave my current job and can roll it over to my personal IRA.)

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

The strongest asset that President Trump has is "the economy" which in his terms (and he has defined those terms) means the valuation of securities prices.  Those seem to have peaked at 29,568 on the DJIA, and those have since fallen by almost 4000. That is about a 12% fall from the peak.

There are warning signs that an eleven-year bull market is nearing an end (and may have reached its end). There is no magic number. But -- volatility is high (a warning sign near the top of the market). The inverted yield curve (which means that short-term borrowing at the same quality is at a higher rate than long-term borrowing) ordinarily indicates a Bull becoming a Bear. An inverted yield curve means that a credit crunch is imminent; dying businesses are going to get their credit cut off, and over-leveraged firms end up with the economic equivalent of compound fractures or third-degree burns. Add to this, consumer spending on big-ticket purchases (remodeling, cars, furniture, and appliances) find that the credit for such purposes dries up. Meanwhile price-earnings ratios are in the stratosphere while inequality of income is in the usual zone that precedes a market crash in which everything goes bad all at once.   

SARS-CoV-2 is likely to help Trump politically. An economic downturn this year was already looking likely before it became a factor and Caronavirus (sic) gives him something other than him to blame that helps him lower expectations.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

The strongest asset that President Trump has is "the economy" which in his terms (and he has defined those terms) means the valuation of securities prices.  Those seem to have peaked at 29,568 on the DJIA, and those have since fallen by almost 4000. That is about a 12% fall from the peak.

There are warning signs that an eleven-year bull market is nearing an end (and may have reached its end). There is no magic number. But -- volatility is high (a warning sign near the top of the market). The inverted yield curve (which means that short-term borrowing at the same quality is at a higher rate than long-term borrowing) ordinarily indicates a Bull becoming a Bear. An inverted yield curve means that a credit crunch is imminent; dying businesses are going to get their credit cut off, and over-leveraged firms end up with the economic equivalent of compound fractures or third-degree burns. Add to this, consumer spending on big-ticket purchases (remodeling, cars, furniture, and appliances) find that the credit for such purposes dries up. Meanwhile price-earnings ratios are in the stratosphere while inequality of income is in the usual zone that precedes a market crash in which everything goes bad all at once.    

SARS-CoV-2 is likely to help Trump politically. An economic downturn this year was already looking likely before it became a factor and Caronavirus (sic) gives him something other than him to blame that helps him lower expectations.

Why would that help Trump?

People will tend to blame the virus and not the Republicans for the poor economy. Granted, he'd be even better off if the economy had remained good, but there was little chance of that happening even before the virus cropped up.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Would be a very weak excuse. His handling of the virus-crisis is weak. He could and will blame Corona for the economic downturn, but beyond the Trump-cult, would anybody really care? 

Trump doesn't need to make people certain the bad economy is due to the virus, just create enuf uncertainty that those who vote for him for non-economic reasons won't be likely to factor in the economy. So far, Trump's Caronavirus (sic) problems are politically a case of him not being able to shut the F up. However, there's no reason to believe we won't see a repeat of what we've repeatedly seen since 2016.
1. Trump says something stupid and/or terrible.
2. He goes down in the polls, giving his opponents hope that this time they've got him.
3. Trump shuts up and/or changes the topic.
4. His poll numbers go back up.
5. Lather, rinse, repeat.

I've long since stopped getting into a lather because of the number of Trump's chickens that supposedly are about to finally come home to roost.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Would be a very weak excuse. His handling of the virus-crisis is weak. He could and will blame Corona for the economic downturn, but beyond the Trump-cult, would anybody really care?  

Trump doesn't need to make people certain the bad economy is due to the virus, just create enuf uncertainty that those who vote for him for non-economic reasons won't be likely to factor in the economy. So far, Trump's Caronavirus (sic) problems are politically a case of him not being able to shut the F up. However, there's no reason to believe we won't see a repeat of what we've repeatedly seen since 2016.
1. Trump says something stupid and/or terrible.
2. He goes down in the polls, giving his opponents hope that this time they've got him.
3. Trump shuts up and/or changes the topic.
4. His poll numbers go back up.
5. Lather, rinse, repeat.

I've long since stopped getting into a lather because of the number of Trump's chickens that supposedly are about to finally come home to roost.

Coronavirus is not comparable to previous brouhahas or scandals, much of which were manufactured by Trump anyway. If the virus spreads out of control and lots of people die, then it will become a story of epic federal mismanagement and incompetence. The federal government isn't doing nearly enough to provide test kits to states hit hard by the virus, there's reports of political overruling of health recommendations to protect senior citizens that are traveling, and then there's the President himself downplaying the growing number of cases and golfing in Florida instead of managing the crisis in DC. Trump may soon have a much bigger problem on his hands than just a sluggish economy, and it will be impossible to escape the blame, even with Mike Pence set us as the fall guy. Good luck running on a platform of cuts to health care and social services, in the midst of a global pandemic.

I hope for the sake of everyone's wellbeing that President Trump is right about the virus going away once the weather warms up. Stay healthy and safe out there, everybody.

We haven't had lots of people die yet. Coronavirus is serious, but so far it hasn't been apocalyptic, nor is there any reason to think its likely to become that even with the poor response so far.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

The Democratic approval of his handling is soft support and there's been no major effort to counter the narrative that he is doing a great job, but once people start getting the word out like it is now, we're seeing it start to go down again.

It is already starting to go down.  The understanding that we're not going back to the way it was by Easter (despite his stupid comments to the contrary) is beginning to seep through, and the reality and fallout from this is going to hurt.

If anything, his Easter comments will probably hurt him by creating unmet expectations.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1255654564835004418

Honestly, the fact that 35% think it's still better than 4 years is ludicrous. We're in the midst of an economic catastrophe unlike anything seen in almost every living person's lifetime, so of course it's worse now than it was 4 years ago. That much is true even if you're one of those people who thinks Trump miraculously pulled us out of the Mad Max-level American carnage of the Obama years.

It just shows you that even after Trump is gone America is going to have big issues dealing with the MAGA cult. 35% of your country is completely disconnected from reality

Granted anyone who does use the economy as a measuring stick and thinks the country is doing well is an utter idiot, but not everyone judges things based on the economy.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Wake me up when the Gallup poll comes out.

Wake up

Wake up, sheeple!

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Fox News, July 12-15, 1104 RV (1-month change)

Approve 45 (+1)
Disapprove 54 (-1)

Strongly approve 28 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 45 (nc)

Biden 49 (-1), Trump 41 (+3)

The most important tidbit from that poll is the total collapse of immigration as the primary issue for voters. From 21% thinking it was the most important issue last April to only 2% now.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Chuck this entire thread in the trash.

pbower2A makes the same maps every Election cycle as Moderator, he made the same map in 2016 as well

Indeed, we had Obama 1.x and 2.x threads for his first and second terms. Thankfully, it looks like the next thread will be Biden approval ratings thread 1.0 and not Trump approval ratings thread 2.0.