COVID-19 Megathread 6: Return of the Omicron

[GeorgiaModerate]

“Listen to the Scientists” has to be the most naive belief. Conventional Scientists once thought the earth was flat. It took brave men to stand up and prove otherwise.

No that is not true. The ancient Greeks were the first to know it was round (so far as we know). Thereafter, most educated elite knew it was round. Scientists knew it was round. Columbus knew it was round.

The Earth not being the center of the universe would fit your point.

The ancient Greeks not only knew the Earth was round, they had a very close idea of the actual size, as calculated by Eratosthenes.  Columbus actually underestimated the size of the Earth by a considerable amount, which led him to believe easternmost Asia was much closer to Europe than it actually is.

[GeorgiaModerate]

President Donald Trump admitted he knew weeks before the first confirmed US coronavirus death that the virus was dangerous, airborne, highly contagious and "more deadly than even your strenuous flus," and that he repeatedly played it down publicly, according to legendary journalist Bob Woodward in his new book "Rage."

"This is deadly stuff," Trump told Woodward on February 7.

In a series of interviews with Woodward, Trump revealed that he had a surprising level of detail about the threat of the virus earlier than previously known. "Pretty amazing," Trump told Woodward, adding that the coronavirus was maybe five times "more deadly" than the flu.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/09/politics/bob-woodward-rage-book-trump-coronavirus/index.html

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/RossDellenger/status/1304405942226898944

[GeorgiaModerate]

Some of you folks give the impression you think the pandemic is all but over.  Do you really think that?  If so, why?

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/peterbakernyt/status/1304907317968855047

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/JonLemire/status/1305205506689003520

[GeorgiaModerate]

We now have a massive stockpile of non-medical masks and I dread to think what will happen to all of them once this is over.

The Great Pacific Garbage Patch is destined to grow even larger. I've already seen reports about masks washing ashore on beaches worldwide.

Stockpile them for the next pandemic to come along.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 9/14 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

ΔW Change: Comparisons of Weekly Day-to-day Growth or Decline of COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Comparing the numbers to the same day of last week, are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE: What's the overall change in the total?

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9/6: <Sunday>

• Cases: 6,460,250 (+29,098 | ΔW Change: ↓14.81% | Σ Increase: ↑0.45%)
• Deaths: 193,250 (+432 | ΔW Change: ↑17.07% | Σ Increase: ↑0.22%)

9/7: <M>

• Cases: 6,485,575 (+25,325 | ΔW Change: ↓34.13% | Σ Increase: ↑0.39%)
• Deaths: 193,534 (+284 | ΔW Change: ↓44.53% | Σ Increase: ↑0.15%)

9/8: <T>

• Cases: 6,514,231 (+28,656 | ΔW Change: ↓37.55% | Σ Increase: ↑0.44%)
• Deaths: 194,032 (+498 | ΔW Change: ↓57.22% | Σ Increase: ↑0.26%)

9/9: <W>

• Cases: 6,549,475 (+35,244 | ΔW Change: ↑6.27% | Σ Increase: ↑0.54%)
• Deaths: 195,239 (+1,207 | ΔW Change: ↑13.44% | Σ Increase: ↑0.62%)

9/10: <Þ>

• Cases: 6,588,163 (+35,244 | ΔW Change: ↓20.81% | Σ Increase: ↑0.59%)
• Deaths: 196,328 (+1,089 | ΔW Change: ↓0.46% | Σ Increase: ↑0.56%)

9/11: <F>

• Cases: 6,636,247 (+48,084 | ΔW Change: ↓10.65% | Σ Increase: ↑0.73%)
• Deaths: 197,421 (+1,093 | ΔW Change: ↑3.80% | Σ Increase: ↑0.56%)

9/12: <S>

• Cases: 6,676,601 (+40,354 | ΔW Change: ↓4.14% | Σ Increase: ↑0.61%)
• Deaths: 198,128 (+707 | ΔW Change: ↑0.00% | Σ Increase: ↑0.36%)

9/13 (Yesterday): <Sunday>

• Cases: 6,708,458 (+31,857 | ΔW Change: ↑9.48% | Σ Increase: ↑0.48%)
• Deaths: 198,520 (+392 | ΔW Change: ↓9.26% | Σ Increase: ↑0.20%)

9/14 (Today): <M>

• Cases: 6,749,289 (+40,831 | ΔW Change: ↑61.23% | Σ Increase: ↑0.61%)
• Deaths: 199,000 (+480 | ΔW Change: ↑69.01% | Σ Increase: ↑0.24%)

Even odds today is the big day. Where was the poll about when the big day would be? How'd we do?

This was the original thread: https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=375303.0.  The most common guess was "won't happen", followed closely by September and October.

[GeorgiaModerate]

9/13: <Sunday>

• Cases: 6,708,458 (+31,857 | ΔW Change: ↑9.48% | Σ Increase: ↑0.48%)
• Deaths: 198,520 (+392 | ΔW Change: ↓9.26% | Σ Increase: ↑0.20%)

9/14 (Yesterday): <M>

• Cases: 6,749,289 (+40,831 | ΔW Change: ↑61.23% | Σ Increase: ↑0.61%)
• Deaths: 199,000 (+480 | ΔW Change: ↑69.01% | Σ Increase: ↑0.24%)

9/15 (Today): <T>

• Cases: 6,787,737 (+38,448 | ΔW Change: ↑34.17% | Σ Increase: ↑0.57%)
• Deaths: 200,178 (+1,178 | ΔW Change: ↑136.55% | Σ Increase: ↑0.59%)

Well, we just broke the 200,000 COVID-19 American deaths mark, and on top of that, that's not even the worst news. It's the fact that we're on another upswing again, it seems, big time.

Last week was labor day and that kind of screws up the numbers. Should wait until the end of the week and see what it looks like.

Agree with this, the data last week looked like there was probably some substantial reporting lags. Though I think there is little reason to believe that things are at anything better than a near 40K plateau in new daily cases, which is still terrible.

Yes, but there is a lot more red popping up since before the weekend hit. We'll see what happens by the end of the week. We'll have a better idea of how it's looking like by then.

It's almost like something happened in the last few weeks to start bringing a bunch of people together again in indoor spaces.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/NTarnopolsky/status/1306286858951962631

[GeorgiaModerate]

Just found out that an elderly cousin of my wife's has COVID.  She just got out of the hospital for a different issue, and it's possible she contracted the virus there.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Looks like Wisconsin just broke a record for the most new cases reported in a single day in that state.

Yeah, Madison is currently ground zero. Everything went to hell with the start of the semester and students partying/going to bars en masse without masks or distancing.

Who could have possibly predicted such an outcome???

Athens (U of Georgia) is in the same boat, according to my kid who lives there.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/jbendery/status/1308075595130167301

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/zGuz/status/1308846168592527362

Prediction: this won't end well.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/HeidiNBC/status/1308849353059168258

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/BryanLowry3/status/1308876205400166410

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/WardDPatrick/status/1309490727177592832

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/ZekeJMiller/status/1309529806145490945

Florida reported 2,851 new cases yesterday.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I don't want to defend DeSanits on most issues, but at this point, what could he really do? Do we really expect things to be closed forever? Is that what we want?

Hang on just a few more months until a vaccine is generally available?  That would seem to be a lot shorter than 'forever'.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I don't want to defend DeSanits on most issues, but at this point, what could he really do? Do we really expect things to be closed forever? Is that what we want?

Hang on just a few more months until a vaccine is generally available?  That would seem to be a lot shorter than 'forever'.

Judging by what the CDC Director said in his congressional testimony last week, it's going to be longer than a "few more months." We could be looking at almost another year.

Perhaps so.  But if we just give up now and say the hell with it, many many more people will die or end up with permanent health problems during that year.  As a nation, we should be willing to pull together and put up with the inconvenience as long as it's necessary.  There *is* an end in sight.

I remember my mom talking about rationing during World War 2 (she still had one of her old coupon books, and gave it to my son several years ago because he's interested in history).  That lasted for more than two years -- and much longer than that for our friends in the UK.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/ryanstruyk/status/1309852606030897154

[GeorgiaModerate]

Still a looong way to go for herd immunity.

Fewer than one in ten Americans have antibodies to the virus that causes Covid-19, indicating relatively low rates of immunity to the pathogen that has killed more than 200,000 people in the U.S.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-09-25/covid-immunity-remains-low-with-under-10-of-u-s-adults-exposed

 Why does Trump keep calling it herd mentality?

Maybe because he's exposed to a herd mentality every time he has a rally with his supporters?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Still a looong way to go for herd immunity.

Fewer than one in ten Americans have antibodies to the virus that causes Covid-19, indicating relatively low rates of immunity to the pathogen that has killed more than 200,000 people in the U.S.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-09-25/covid-immunity-remains-low-with-under-10-of-u-s-adults-exposed

 Why does Trump keep calling it herd mentality?

Maybe because he's exposed to a herd mentality every time he has a rally with his supporters?

But what on Earth is herd mentality?

Merriam-Webster's definition: "The tendency of the people in a group to think and behave in ways that conform with others in the group rather than as individuals."

[GeorgiaModerate]

Still a looong way to go for herd immunity.

Fewer than one in ten Americans have antibodies to the virus that causes Covid-19, indicating relatively low rates of immunity to the pathogen that has killed more than 200,000 people in the U.S.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-09-25/covid-immunity-remains-low-with-under-10-of-u-s-adults-exposed

 Why does Trump keep calling it herd mentality?

Maybe because he's exposed to a herd mentality every time he has a rally with his supporters?

But what on Earth is herd mentality?

Merriam-Webster's definition: "The tendency of the people in a group to think and behave in ways that conform with others in the group rather than as individuals."

So what does this have to do with Covid-19?

Ask Trump; he's the one misusing it for "herd immunity".  Although I suppose the widespread opposition to masks and social distancing among Trump's supporters might be considered an indication of herd mentality.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/ScottGottliebMD/status/1310190199339655168