2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Bootes Void]

Associated Press doubled down on Biden winning Arizona

https://apnews.com/article/election-2020-joe-biden-donald-trump-race-and-ethnicity-mark-kelly-6841e27210770f59418bdc13a60ccec7

I'm so confused as to why they seem so confident.

Because when your credibility and ego are on the line, you can not back down.

Biden can probably win Arizona but by no more than 10k votes or so if the current batch continues to be favourable to Trump which it likely won't as there some blue counties to send in

[skbl17]

Just dropping in to say that re: Georgia, Fulton County will report "full results" between midnight and 3am EST:

https://twitter.com/TalKopan/status/1324179050156490754

Is the needle still on?

They were turned off at 6am EST this morning.

[BudgieForce]

I'm not going to go back to my napkin, but Trump probably needs to get the remaining Arizona vote by more than 60% if he wants to take the lead. 59% isn't going to cut it. Its very possible he does better in later batches, but there's also two blue counties with outstanding ballots that should cushion Biden a small amount. Probably a few more days before anybody besides AP and Fox make a call on the race.

[GP270watch]

"Fun" fact:

Out of the 30 states Trump won in 2016, 7 of them trended R (as of the vote counts a 9:57 ET on November 4th), while 23 of them trended D.

Of the 20 states Clinton won in 2016, 17 of them trended D and three trended R.

In other words, Dems are gaining everywhere, but much more so in states that are already safe. This is resulting in a close electoral college matchup despite improving their margin in 40 states.

Yayyy even more Democratic voter inefficiency, this is epic!

Yeah, it mirrors 2018 gains some what.

[GeneralMacArthur]

"Fun" fact:

Out of the 30 states Trump won in 2016, 7 of them trended R (as of the vote counts a 9:57 ET on November 4th), while 23 of them trended D.

Of the 20 states Clinton won in 2016, 17 of them trended D and three trended R.

In other words, Dems are gaining everywhere, but much more so in states that are already safe. This is resulting in a close electoral college matchup despite improving their margin in 40 states.

Yayyy even more Democratic voter inefficiency, this is epic!

At least it's nice for the House.  There's still a good chunk of California House seats that are occupied by some of the worst Republicans in the country.

[VBM]

Can someone give me a good estimate on how likely Blue Georgia is looking?

[The Free North]

Can someone give me a good estimate on how likely Blue Georgia is looking?

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Associated Press doubled down on Biden winning Arizona

https://apnews.com/article/election-2020-joe-biden-donald-trump-race-and-ethnicity-mark-kelly-6841e27210770f59418bdc13a60ccec7

They definately have some data or know something we don't if that's the case. They seem way too confident otherwise.

I'd say if they or Fox haven't voiced any hesitation over the next couple hours then they're probably still confident.

Is it possible they have a breakdown of where the remaining votes are *within* Maricopa County? There are obviously some huge differences in how each candidate will do in different cities.

[Dr. Arch]

Can someone give me a good estimate on how likely Blue Georgia is looking?

Good with Fulton missing a chunk and Augusta and Savannah missing over 10%. The margin is already at Biden -30K before all that.

[Ferguson97]

Kanye West received about 60,000 votes as of now. His best state was Tennessee.

https://www.nydailynews.com/snyde/ny-kanye-west-60000-votes-20201105-xje2ti6s3nd6noycwrnbnvapri-story.html

His first vote of his life was writing in himself. I wonder how many presidential candidates can say that. Even Trump probably voted before.

Eisenhower

I'm not sure about that one.

It's true: https://millercenter.org/president/eisenhower/campaigns-and-elections

[emailking]

Is this the longest thread in forum history?

[VBM]

Can someone give me a good estimate on how likely Blue Georgia is looking?

Good with Fulton missing a chunk and Augusta and Savannah missing over 10%. The margin is already at Biden -30K before all that.

If you had to guess, how much votes would you say Biden wins or loses by?

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

"Fun" fact:

Out of the 30 states Trump won in 2016, 7 of them trended R (as of the vote counts a 9:57 ET on November 4th), while 23 of them trended D.

Of the 20 states Clinton won in 2016, 17 of them trended D and three trended R.

In other words, Dems are gaining everywhere, but much more so in states that are already safe. This is resulting in a close electoral college matchup despite improving their margin in 40 states.

Yayyy even more Democratic voter inefficiency, this is epic!

At least it's nice for the House.  There's still a good chunk of California House seats that are occupied by some of the worst Republicans in the country.

This is true, but it also means that the Senate continues to have a Republican bias that isn't loosening up anytime soon. This likely means that during the 2020s, the house will continue to have a Democratic bent, the Senate will continue to have a Republican bent, and the Presidency will be a toss-up. At best, this means endless gridlock and a lack of any substantial change.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Can someone give me a good estimate on how likely Blue Georgia is looking?

Good with Fulton missing a chunk and Augusta and Savannah missing over 10%. The margin is already at Biden -30K before all that.

If you had to guess, how much votes would you say Biden wins or loses by?

I'll say he wins by 20K or bit under.

[Holmes]

Is this the longest thread in forum history?

Not at all.

[wbrocks67]

Georgia was saying they want to dump most of the entire rest of the bucket tonight after midnight, and there was 149K at that point, so if Biden is leading, it's probably safe enough to call.

Also, I'm not saying Biden will win AZ, though the vote dump looked fine for him, b/c Trump would have to get that margin every time, even with a Pima dump - but I like how people here think they know better than AP and Fox. Not saying they're infallible but telling Fox and AP what to do like you have better insights to resources than they do is... something

[wbrocks67]

Can someone give me a good estimate on how likely Blue Georgia is looking?

Good with Fulton missing a chunk and Augusta and Savannah missing over 10%. The margin is already at Biden -30K before all that.

If you had to guess, how much votes would you say Biden wins or loses by?

I'll say he wins by 20K or bit under.

There's atleast 100k right now, so if Biden wins them 70/30 like he's been doing he would net 70k, Trump 30k, so I'd say Biden may be closer to like a 30/40K win lead.

[Dr. Arch]

Can someone give me a good estimate on how likely Blue Georgia is looking?

Good with Fulton missing a chunk and Augusta and Savannah missing over 10%. The margin is already at Biden -30K before all that.

If you had to guess, how much votes would you say Biden wins or loses by?

I'll say he wins by 20K or bit under.

Around this. It depends on margins.

[WD]

https://mobile.twitter.com/michaelcrowley/status/1324173298092134401

[forsythvoter]

There's about 20k mail-in votes out in Clayton too, which is an 85% Biden county with the votes that have already been counted

Can someone give me a good estimate on how likely Blue Georgia is looking?

Good with Fulton missing a chunk and Augusta and Savannah missing over 10%. The margin is already at Biden -30K before all that.

If you had to guess, how much votes would you say Biden wins or loses by?

I'll say he wins by 20K or bit under.

Around this. It depends on margins.

[philly09]

In Georgia, 38 percent of voters characterized themselves as moderates. Of that group, 64 percent said they voted for Biden, while 34 percent said they supported Trump.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

There's about 20k mail-in votes out in Clayton too, which is an 85% Biden county with the votes that have already been counted

Can someone give me a good estimate on how likely Blue Georgia is looking?

Good with Fulton missing a chunk and Augusta and Savannah missing over 10%. The margin is already at Biden -30K before all that.

If you had to guess, how much votes would you say Biden wins or loses by?

I'll say he wins by 20K or bit under.

Around this. It depends on margins.

Does anyone know if we can push Perdue under 50?

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

There's about 20k mail-in votes out in Clayton too, which is an 85% Biden county with the votes that have already been counted

Can someone give me a good estimate on how likely Blue Georgia is looking?

Good with Fulton missing a chunk and Augusta and Savannah missing over 10%. The margin is already at Biden -30K before all that.

If you had to guess, how much votes would you say Biden wins or loses by?

I'll say he wins by 20K or bit under.

Around this. It depends on margins.

Does anyone know if we can push Perdue under 50?

Probably. He's only over 50 by 8,000 votes right now.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

There's about 20k mail-in votes out in Clayton too, which is an 85% Biden county with the votes that have already been counted

Can someone give me a good estimate on how likely Blue Georgia is looking?

Good with Fulton missing a chunk and Augusta and Savannah missing over 10%. The margin is already at Biden -30K before all that.

If you had to guess, how much votes would you say Biden wins or loses by?

I'll say he wins by 20K or bit under.

Around this. It depends on margins.

Hell, even if we don't assume a higher percentage for Biden in the mail vote (which it probably will be) that would net something like 14K for Biden

[forsythvoter]

GA SOS says there are 98K ballots left to count. Trump lead is 33K so Biden needs a 2-1 margin among these ballots to win. He's been getting about 75-85% so far among the last few batches.