2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread (user search)
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  2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread (search mode)
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Author Topic: 2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread  (Read 617517 times)
The Free North
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« on: November 03, 2020, 10:03:21 AM »
I'm here to overreact to unsubstantiated rumors on twitter and bad data analysis. Is this the right place?
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The Free North
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« Reply #1 on: November 03, 2020, 11:20:25 AM »
Quote from: Dr. RI, Trustbuster on November 03, 2020, 11:19:26 AM
Quote from: Hindsight is 2020 on November 03, 2020, 11:15:37 AM

Here’s another great example we are at almost 80% turnout in the Villages and Trump is doing 10% worse then in 2016 while NPAs (a group that has constantly been pro-Biden in polling) has spiked.

Sumter was 56 R, 24 D in 2016. How do you get "10% worse" from that?

People can also cross party lines so its extra useless
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The Free North
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« Reply #2 on: November 03, 2020, 02:00:33 PM »
https://joeisdone.github.io/florida/

Reps slightly outpacing Dems vs 2016 turnout
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The Free North
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« Reply #3 on: November 03, 2020, 04:32:24 PM »
The absolute scenes in this thread when TX goes for Biden and Florida is like +.5% Trump
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The Free North
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« Reply #4 on: November 03, 2020, 07:14:45 PM »
Florida is all early vote. Don't think Trump has enough vote from today to make some of these changes not look awful, but well see.
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The Free North
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« Reply #5 on: November 03, 2020, 07:15:31 PM »
Miami is 54-45. That cant be right? Was the early vote overly R there?
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The Free North
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« Reply #6 on: November 03, 2020, 07:16:08 PM »
Quote from: (CT) The Free North on November 03, 2020, 07:15:31 PM
Miami is 54-45. That cant be right? Was the early vote overly R there?

If its not an error, Trump is up 120,000+ votes from 2016 there Wtf?
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The Free North
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« Reply #7 on: November 03, 2020, 07:18:54 PM »

That was my thought as well. Where were those Trump voters in 2016?
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The Free North
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« Reply #8 on: November 03, 2020, 07:20:44 PM »
Trump lost Miami-Dade by 300k in 2016, hes down 100k right now with the early vote in. Thats hugely concerning.
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The Free North
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« Reply #9 on: November 03, 2020, 07:30:03 PM »
Quote from: Dr. RI, Trustbuster on November 03, 2020, 07:25:21 PM
There were not a million votes cast in Miami-Dade today. Stop.

And they 100% were not all released at once. This is my massive concern. I expected biden to maybe pull 60-40 there. Hopefully same day votes were better.
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The Free North
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« Reply #10 on: November 03, 2020, 07:31:10 PM »
Looks like an early 4-5% swing in Palm Beach to Biden from 2016
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The Free North
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« Reply #11 on: November 03, 2020, 07:44:08 PM »
Trump won Pinellas by 7k last time, hes down 4k this time.

Thats nothing compared to the Miami numbers he racked up. I think Florida is gone for the Dems. NC is probably a good shout, then AZ/PA.
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The Free North
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« Reply #12 on: November 03, 2020, 07:48:07 PM »
Predicit has Florida for Trump at 88%.

We could see blue Georgia/NC and red Florida.

Maybe even blue Texas and red Florida.
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The Free North
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« Reply #13 on: November 03, 2020, 07:57:26 PM »

Consistent with Biden +3 from Trump amongst whites. Will mean NC goes Biden and thus the election.
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The Free North
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« Reply #14 on: November 03, 2020, 07:58:18 PM »
At least Shalala will lose. Where is BRTD?
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The Free North
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« Reply #15 on: November 03, 2020, 08:03:47 PM »

Florida is a meme.

The rest of the country is sane, Biden still wins easily because PA is a lock.
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The Free North
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« Reply #16 on: November 03, 2020, 08:06:22 PM »
Why is it after every election we hear about Florida Democrats 'sounding the alarm' like 2 weeks before every election? Does no one have the ability to plan and attack a very well known and well understood problem?
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The Free North
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« Reply #17 on: November 03, 2020, 08:12:07 PM »
Trumps gonna win Florida by like 2%, hes gonna win by more than 2016.
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The Free North
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« Reply #18 on: November 03, 2020, 08:15:59 PM »
56-42 in Harris County Tx

Was 54-41 in 2016 for Hillary. If same day voting is healthy for Trump, no way Biden wins Texas.
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The Free North
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« Reply #19 on: November 03, 2020, 08:18:02 PM »
Decision Desk I think called Florida for Trump (as it should)
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The Free North
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« Reply #20 on: November 03, 2020, 08:20:42 PM »
Florida SWUNG right. How is this possible?
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The Free North
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« Reply #21 on: November 03, 2020, 08:22:42 PM »
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The Free North
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« Reply #22 on: November 03, 2020, 08:30:47 PM »
Quote from: SunSt0rm on November 03, 2020, 08:26:40 PM
Its not only Cuban, but Biden has a Hispanic problem

Hispanic voters per early 2020 exit polls:

Florida:
2016: Clinton +27
2020: Biden +8

Georgia:
2016: Clinton +40
2020: Biden +25

Ohio:
2016: Clinton +41
2020: Biden +24

Source: CNN

This is something I had brought up before and is a huge point of worry. Hispanic voters are far too fluid to think they'll indefinitely support dems election after election.
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The Free North
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« Reply #23 on: November 03, 2020, 08:34:35 PM »
Quote from: Horus on November 03, 2020, 08:32:59 PM
Regardless of the final outcome, it is a good thing that America is racially depolarizing. This forces quasi white nationalists away from the GOP and makes civil war less likely.

Best post of the night. We dont want to become South Africa. Fluid elections are fantastic. Really happy about this.
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The Free North
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« Reply #24 on: November 03, 2020, 08:39:57 PM »
Starr County, Tx

96% latino

2016: Clinton 9.2k-2.2k Trump
2020: Biden 7.6k-5.5k Trump

This cant be correct. I'm looking at DDHQ, this has to be an error.

 What in God's name is happening. This is like a political earthquake.
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