2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

I don't know what to think. Which, all things considered, is better than the unyielding sense of catastrophe I felt about two weeks ago.

If Dems manage to save the Senate while losing the House, I'll consider that a relief.

[S019]

Honestly, I get 2016 vibes here where the race moved towards Republicans (following the Comey Letter), but Clinton regained some ground once the investigation was closed (it obviously was not enough ground in the end). But I'm honestly prepared for anything from like 185-210 Democratic House seats.

[It’s so Joever]

Are Dems getting an Obama bump? A Paul Pelosi bump? It does seem like GOP momentum is blunted right now.

We can only hope that the attempted assassination of the most senior official on the ballot by an activist radicalized by the opposition has at least some repercussions. After this, if the Republican Party still wins big or even by a typical amount, that shows that terrorism has no more or less influence on policy as protesting does. At that point, it becomes inevitable that protesting must give way to either obedience or resistance.

And remember, obedience is what will keep the country safe and United.

[Person Man]

Are Dems getting an Obama bump? A Paul Pelosi bump? It does seem like GOP momentum is blunted right now.

We can only hope that the attempted assassination of the most senior official on the ballot by an activist radicalized by the opposition has at least some repercussions. After this, if the Republican Party still wins big or even by a typical amount, that shows that terrorism has no more or less influence on policy as protesting does. At that point, it becomes inevitable that protesting must give way to either obedience or resistance.

And remember, obedience is what will keep the country safe and United.

I understand what you are going through.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1589330702360752128?s=20&t=jRI8iv...

[SnowLabrador]

https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1589330702360752128?s=20&t=jRI8iv...

We'll have to see what happens. What direction has Civiqs tended to lean relative to other polls this cycle?

[new_patomic]

A real put up or shut up year for online pollsters, they've been near universally more D friendly

[wbrocks67]

The ABC and NBC results aren't really that crazy, in that again, most of the nonpartisan pollsters have averaged out to a close tie most of the time (we just had a ton of them converge on R+1/tie/D+1 in the last week or so, and these two are no different)

Civiqs has been a bit more bullish for Dems, as has Morning Consult/Politico.

Morning Consult's midterm tracker though is tied, while YouGov/Economist is tied now too. Yahoo has found closer to D+2 while CBS/YouGov has been closer to R+2.

Essentially, when you cut out all of the outliers, everything has generally been close to a tied result. Even the last ABC/Wapo and NYT/Siena polls were close to a tie among RV; it was their LV models that were a bit outlier-ish.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The ABC and NBC results aren't really that crazy, in that again, most of the nonpartisan pollsters have averaged out to a close tie most of the time (we just had a ton of them converge on R+1/tie/D+1 in the last week or so, and these two are no different)

Civiqs has been a bit more bullish for Dems, as has Morning Consult/Politico.

Morning Consult's midterm tracker though is tied, while YouGov/Economist is tied now too. Yahoo has found closer to D+2 while CBS/YouGov has been closer to R+2.

Essentially, when you cut out all of the outliers, everything has generally been close to a tied result. Even the last ABC/Wapo and NYT/Siena polls were close to a tie among RV; it was their LV models that were a bit outlier-ish.

Split Ticket's nonpartisan pollster GCB aggregator currently has D+0.1 (46.9-46.8 ).

[Person Man]

Waiting for Selzer. Like was said about the Iowa poll

>D+2 Democrats might actually win
R+2 -D+1 Republicans will flip the house, but it will be narrow. The senate might not be called for a while.
R+3-R+4 Republicans will do well, but lose a couple of swing states
R+5-R+7 we’re talking a second 2014.
>R+8 We are talking 1894 or 1918. Modern Democrats are ceasing to exist at the national level. My guess is that we’re back in the Roaring 20’s: Prohibition 2 Electric Bugaloo. Democrats will probably be coming back to prominence in the 2030s, but they’ll be different.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's a 303 map the PVI was 50/45 last time and we lost 8 H seats and we replicate the blue wall my Dream already said it's gonna be a 52/47/1 Senate WI, PA and UT and FL, WV, MT and OH are battlegrounds in 24 and ME is a lost cause for Collins in 26

My premonition I know very well but I still hope Ryan and Beasley win

Evers will pull Barnes over the top how can Johnson be plus 8 and Clarity be Barnes plus 2 in a matter of mnth this is WI people I live in IL WI is like MN not IN and BARNES is LT Gov already

[TwinGeeks99]

Ds can keep the house with a 1% PV win. Remember winning Peltola, Kaptur, Golden, Cartwright reduces their need to win every Biden +2 seat.

Rs will also get a huge PV margin out of Florida that will be 20-8 whether it's a 3% win or a 9% win.

That point about the DeSantification of Florida skewing the national House popular vote is a pretty good one that I never thought about before.

[It’s so Joever]

Waiting for Selzer. Like was said about the Iowa poll

>D+2 Democrats might actually win
R+2 -D+1 Republicans will flip the house, but it will be narrow. The senate might not be called for a while.
R+3-R+4 Republicans will do well, but lose a couple of swing states
R+5-R+7 we’re talking a second 2014.
>R+8 We are talking 1894 or 1918. Modern Democrats are ceasing to exist at the national level. My guess is that we’re back in the Roaring 20’s: Prohibition 2 Electric Bugaloo. Democrats will probably be coming back to prominence in the 2030s, but they’ll be different.

Is Selzer’s GCB nationwide?

[Person Man]

Waiting for Selzer. Like was said about the Iowa poll

>D+2 Democrats might actually win
R+2 -D+1 Republicans will flip the house, but it will be narrow. The senate might not be called for a while.
R+3-R+4 Republicans will do well, but lose a couple of swing states
R+5-R+7 we’re talking a second 2014.
>R+8 We are talking 1894 or 1918. Modern Democrats are ceasing to exist at the national level. My guess is that we’re back in the Roaring 20’s: Prohibition 2 Electric Bugaloo. Democrats will probably be coming back to prominence in the 2030s, but they’ll be different.

Is Selzer’s GCB nationwide?

I’m operating under that assumption. If it’s only Iowa, I’m subtracting 10 from the GOP.

[Devils30]

Ds can keep the house with a 1% PV win. Remember winning Peltola, Kaptur, Golden, Cartwright reduces their need to win every Biden +2 seat.

Rs will also get a huge PV margin out of Florida that will be 20-8 whether it's a 3% win or a 9% win.

That point about the DeSantification of Florida skewing the national House popular vote is a pretty good one that I never thought about before.

Yep, the Dems decided they didn't give one f*** about Florida this year.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1589397733361668096

[wbrocks67]

Wasserman kind of touching on it, but amazing that none of the pundits have even touched the fact that almost all of the nonpartisan house polling looks.... surprisingly good for Dems. Of course, it goes against their narrative so I'm not surprised.

[Devils30]

Wasserman kind of touching on it, but amazing that none of the pundits have even touched the fact that almost all of the nonpartisan house polling looks.... surprisingly good for Dems. Of course, it goes against their narrative so I'm not surprised.

If the Ds win those districts and do extremely well with college whites, it leaves them a path through NC-13, NJ-7, CO-8, NM-2 and maybe CA-45 that no one believes is possible but statistically are hardly unwinnable.

[Roll Roons]

Wasserman's thoughts on how the Tossup races break:
https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1589426102141079554?cxt=HHwWhMDS7cyn444sAA...

I wouldn't be surprised if he does one final ratings update tomorrow morning.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Wasserman's thoughts on how the Tossup races break:
https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1589426102141079554?cxt=HHwWhMDS7cyn444sAA...
I wouldn't be surprised if he does one final ratings update tomorrow morning.

Very reasonable.. maybe slightly bullish on dems in Ohio.

[kwabbit]

Wasserman's thoughts on how the Tossup races break:
https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1589426102141079554?cxt=HHwWhMDS7cyn444sAA...
I wouldn't be surprised if he does one final ratings update tomorrow morning.

This is 200-235 D-R I believe.

[Sestak]

The west coast results look a bit discordant…especially Mike Levin losing while Salinas wins in OR-06; very weird given what Oregon is looking like atm.

[kwabbit]

The west coast results look a bit discordant…especially Mike Levin losing while Salinas wins in OR-06; very weird given what Oregon is looking like atm.

It also does not take into account the apocalyptic rain on Tuesday in SoCal. Not a single soul will dare leave their house or workplace to vote lest they drown in the half inch of precipitation.

[Roll Roons]

Also it's kind of crazy that there could actually be four Republican House members from New England. They haven't had that many since before the 2006 midterms.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

The west coast results look a bit discordant…especially Mike Levin losing while Salinas wins in OR-06; very weird given what Oregon is looking like atm.

It also does not take into account the apocalyptic rain on Tuesday in SoCal. Not a single soul will dare leave their house or workplace to vote lest they drown in the half inch of precipitation.

Now this is the kind of mockery of California I can get behind.