2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[jamestroll]

https://twitter.com/kkondik/status/1589596646383706112?cxt=HHwWgIDTvcrusI8sAAAA

Bear in mind that they currently have Republicans favored to flip 13 D-held seats while Democrats are favored to flip two R-held seats and 20 seats are tossups.

I am looking forward to predictions beginning Wednesday that the GOP will win every race this decade only to be proven wrong in a cycle or two!

[Unelectable Bystander]

Wasserman's thoughts on how the Tossup races break:
https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1589426102141079554?cxt=HHwWhMDS7cyn444sAA...
I wouldn't be surprised if he does one final ratings update tomorrow morning.

Fascinating; he's at 234-201, to RRH's final call of 245-190. Here are the races they're predicting break differently:

Wasserman blue, RRH red:
IN-1 (Mrvan)
MI-8 (Kildee) (Wasserman at Leans D)
NV-1 (Titus)
NV-4 (Horsford) (Wasserman at Leans D)
NY-3 (Suozzi)
NY-18 (Ryan) (Wasserman at Leans D)
NY-19 (Ryan)
OH-1 (Chabot)
PA-17 (Lamb)
TX-28 (Cuellar) (Wasserman at Leans D)
TX-34 (Flores)
VA-7 (Spanberger)

Wasserman red, RRH blue:
CA-49 (Levin)

There is probably one seat I've missed them disagreeing on, because the numbers need one more "Wasserman blue, RRH red" seat to add up, but for the life of me I can't find it. I guess, uh, pretend Wasserman didn't call Levin losing -- by far his weirdest call, points at a much redder year than everything else he said -- and then this all works, and there are 11 "especially controversial" seats to look at, where both sides seem confident.

EDIT: NVM, found it, was confused by Wasserman terming NY-19, which Ryan is leaving, to be "Ryan's seat", while RRH was terming NY-18, which he is coming to, as Ryan's seat. There are 12 seats that Wasserman has called blue but RRH has called red, and 1 seat that is the reverse; for some reason CA-49.

CNAnalysis's final call for the House is 230-205, so a little more pessimistic on GOP odds than Wasserman: https://projects.cnalysis.com/21-22/house

He has CA-49 going blue (...obviously), and of the races where Wasserman and RRH disagree, he has 10/12 going Democratic (all but NY-19 and OH-1, which he's calling for the GOP). This leaves 5 races he's calling for the Democrats which both RRH and Wasserman have going Republican:
CA-13 (Harder)
IL-17 (Bustos)
ME-2 (Golden)
MI-7 (Slotkin)
MN-2 (Craig)
WA-8 (Schrier)

...you'll notice 6. There is one race CN has going Republican which Wasserman and RRH both have as blue:
OH-13 (Gibbs)

~~

So, we have the following breakdown:
RRH red, Wasserman blue, CNAnalysis blue:
IN-1 (Mrvan)
MI-8 (Kildee)
NV-1 (Titus)
NV-4 (Horsford)
NY-3 (Suozzi)
NY-18 (Ryan)
PA-17 (Lamb)
TX-28 (Cuellar)
TX-34 (Flores) (R --> D possibility)
VA-7 (Spanberger)

RRH red, Wasserman blue, CNAnalysis red:
NY-19 (Tenney) (R --> D possibility)
OH-1 (Chabot) (R --> D possibility)

RRH red, Wasserman red, CNAnalysis blue:
CA-13 (Harder)
IL-17 (Bustos)
ME-2 (Golden)
MI-7 (Slotkin)
MN-2 (Craig)
WA-8 (Schrier)

RRH blue, Wasserman red, CNAnalysis blue:
CA-49 (Levin)

RRH blue, Wasserman blue, CNAnalysis red:
OH-13 (Gibbs) (R --> D possibility)

Seats that all of these analyses agree are flipping R to D: IL-13, MI-3

Seats that all of these analyses agree are flipping D to R: AZ-2, AZ-6, CT-5 (!!), FL-4, FL-7, FL-13, GA-6, IA-3, MI-10, NV-3 (!), NH-1 (!!), NJ-7, OR-5 (!!!), PA-7, PA-8 (!), RI-2 (!!!!), TN-5, TX-15, VA-2, WI-3

That is a strange and motley crew of seats everyone agrees are going Republican. (There also might need to be a category of 'seats that everyone notably thinks will be held by Democrats, even though they are obviously on-paper good targets' -- AK-AL, OH-9 and KS-3 fit in this category.)

I count 227 seats that all of these projections agree are voting Republican, though more than a couple of them are actually very weird calls.

I just find it weird the Senate with all these Biden +1 or less seats is a complete tossup, yet everyone is giving the GOP a ton of Biden +7-12 House seats with very little evidence. It would be one thing if we had multiple high quality polls in CT-5, RI-2, OR-5 but we have none. Meanwhile we have them in PA-8, NM-2, NY-19, NY-22, CA-49, MN-2, NH-1 and none are really bad for Dems.

Given polarization, it's just difficult seeing the GOP not winning the Senate but then winning 25 house seats as these analysts suggest. I feel like a 51-49 GOP Senate could come alongside a disappointing 12 house seat gain for them instead of a major wave. If they are gaining 25+ it very well may be a 53-47 Senate and Ds getting a 51-49 Senate may mean the GOP is sweating out the House for a week.

Some of these do have polls, Fung is winning the average by like 6 points. Hayes is winning the average by 1 and that includes high quality polls from Emerson and Fabrizio Lee. It’s also possible that seats don’t shift in the exact same patterns.

I do agree that R’s will win most of the seats that Trump won if it is actually that good of a night. This seems like hedging by the experts. They probably think R’s will win if polling shows Wild or Golden tied in the mid 40’s in states that have underestimated republicans, but it makes them look stupid if they move them to lean R without any polling evidence. It’s far less risky for their reputations to move surprise seats to toss-ups when they show close polling.

[wbrocks67]

From what I'm getting from Split/Ticket, Cook, and Crystal Ball, is essentially them saying the polls are wrong in GOP's favor lol. Because the GCB and specific house polling is not really correlating with their general predictions.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I’ll have my final predictions up tonight or tomorrow before polls close (probably the former*), but I want to note two things.  First, a lot of the professional prognosticators seem to have decided that either most close races will break hard toward the Republicans across the country and/or that there will be systemic polling error in favor of Republicans.  I don’t think either of those things are clear and certainly don’t think they should be baked into everyone’s predictions (especially not the latter).  

Second, I think some of these folks have gotten tunnel vision on this being a Republican wave year.  The truth is that we don’t know what will happen and anything from a blue ripple to a red wave is possible.  You’re not dumb or a hack if you get this wrong, but folks keep projecting a level of confidence that I don’t think is warranted.

*I disagree pretty strongly with some of the assumptions the pundit/professional political class seems to be making, but if I’m gonna say I know better than the folks who predict this stuff for a living, then I should at least put my money where my mouth is and say what I think will happen.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's a 303 map not a 225 and Barnes will beat Johnson but it's gonna be close it's not gonna be easy as we thought it would be if we win more than 303 it's probably a D not R H

That's why pollster have Rs surging in Red not blue states because they expect an R H but they don't know there can be lots of split voting Ryan/DeWine, Lombardo/CCM, Kemp/Warnock and Lake/Kelly VANCE isn't winning by 10 and DeWine isn't winning by 20 after Ryan has lead in most polls since August

That can explain some of R votes in NV more votes for Lombardo than Laxalt

And I am hoping it's DEMINGS/DeSantis that Sen race isn't over

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://mobile.twitter.com/LoganR2WH/status/1588642750647386112

[SnowLabrador]

The fact that they have Colorado in the same category as Wisconsin tells you all you need to know.

[bilaps]

From what I'm getting from Split/Ticket, Cook, and Crystal Ball, is essentially them saying the polls are wrong in GOP's favor lol. Because the GCB and specific house polling is not really correlating with their general predictions.

I would certainy beleive more to Cook, Sabato, Kondik and Wasserman than the polls. They probably know more than us.

What I heard this morning just watching the shows is Katty Kay saying she was in VA-07 where she was on events for both candidates this weekend and Spanberger's event had dozen people, while Vega's had a Trumpian feel with hundreds of people and certainly more energy. Now I hear on CNN that Jill Biden is doing an event for Wexton of all people tonight. Poor Steve Kornacki was sweating at the big board how to explain that maybe that NBC poll showing a tie is essentialy wrong because Biden's approval is 44% and that would mean a loss for Dems comparable with Trump and Obama losses in midterms

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The fact that they have Colorado in the same category as Wisconsin tells you all you need to know.

Bennet and Murray and Shapiro are gonna win 55/45

[Devils30]

From what I'm getting from Split/Ticket, Cook, and Crystal Ball, is essentially them saying the polls are wrong in GOP's favor lol. Because the GCB and specific house polling is not really correlating with their general predictions.

I wish I knew wtf was happening right now, but I don't!

[Person Man]

https://mobile.twitter.com/LoganR2WH/status/1588642750647386112

Even if they guess it right, the will be right for the wrong reasons.

[Adam Griffin]

Even if they guess it right, the will be right for the wrong reasons.

"right versus accurate"

[It’s so Joever]

From what I'm getting from Split/Ticket, Cook, and Crystal Ball, is essentially them saying the polls are wrong in GOP's favor lol. Because the GCB and specific house polling is not really correlating with their general predictions.

I wish I knew wtf was happening right now, but I don't!

Let me help you.
A red wave and some flawed polls.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/politics_polls/status/1589673497726705665?s=46&t=xW423QU...

[new_patomic]

Putting all of your faith into online pollsters is not cope and I refuse to listen to anyone who says otherwise

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Hilarious how Morning Consult has had D +5 for months..

Will age like milk.

[wbrocks67]

Last minute GCB polls-

Morning Consult/Politico: D+5 (48-43) - was D+5 last week
https://www.politico.com/news/2022/11/07/voters-blame-democrats-poor-economy-inflation-00065325

YouGov/Economist: D+1 (47-46) among RV, R+1 (49-48) among LV - was tied last week
https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/pyh97ixj6q/econTabReport.pdf

[soundchaser]

It’s definitely interesting how stable the online trackers like Civiqs and Morning Consult have been this cycle. Wonder what’s up with that?

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/politics_polls/status/1589673497726705665?s=46&t=xW423QU...

It’s crazy how Politico doesn’t believe their own poll. I mean I don’t either, but I didn’t shell out lots of money to Morning Consult. Money we’ll spent guys!!!

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1589677455174176770?t=3h0ICIeg-22wxSLZ...

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Does Data for Progress have any significant R house effect? Because a poll of this kind is concerning...GCB polls have been a big bright spot for Ds this cycle...

[soundchaser]

Does Data for Progress have any significant R house effect? Because a poll of this kind is concerning...GCB polls have been a big bright spot for Ds this cycle...

Hard to say. They’ve definitely been pretty right-leaning this cycle, and they whiffed the NY-19 special pretty hard (Molinaro +8, compared to the actual result of Ryan +3). But that could be a consistent house effect, or it could just be them being a bad pollster!

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Does Data for Progress have any significant R house effect? Because a poll of this kind is concerning...GCB polls have been a big bright spot for Ds this cycle...

Hard to say. They’ve definitely been pretty right-leaning this cycle, and they whiffed the NY-19 special pretty hard (Molinaro +8, compared to the actual result of Ryan +3). But that could be a consistent house effect, or it could just be them being a bad pollster!

That's true. I guess we'll see in a day how good their polls were...and we'll see in another cycle or two if they have any consistent house effect...maybe they have more bullish methodology which produces better results.
Are any other GCB polls showing an R advantage? And if so, how many?

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Does Data for Progress have any significant R house effect? Because a poll of this kind is concerning...GCB polls have been a big bright spot for Ds this cycle...

Hard to say. They’ve definitely been pretty right-leaning this cycle, and they whiffed the NY-19 special pretty hard (Molinaro +8, compared to the actual result of Ryan +3). But that could be a consistent house effect, or it could just be them being a bad pollster!

That's true. I guess we'll see in a day how good their polls were...and we'll see in another cycle or two if they have any consistent house effect...maybe they have more bullish methodology which produces better results.
Are any other GCB polls showing an R advantage? And if so, how many?

Both RCP and 538 show a R advantage in the Generic ballot.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/generic-ballot/

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2022-generic-congressional-vote-7361.html

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Does Data for Progress have any significant R house effect? Because a poll of this kind is concerning...GCB polls have been a big bright spot for Ds this cycle...

Hard to say. They’ve definitely been pretty right-leaning this cycle, and they whiffed the NY-19 special pretty hard (Molinaro +8, compared to the actual result of Ryan +3). But that could be a consistent house effect, or it could just be them being a bad pollster!

That's true. I guess we'll see in a day how good their polls were...and we'll see in another cycle or two if they have any consistent house effect...maybe they have more bullish methodology which produces better results.
Are any other GCB polls showing an R advantage? And if so, how many?

Both RCP and 538 show a R advantage in the Generic ballot.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/generic-ballot/

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2022-generic-congressional-vote-7361.html

Huh. I guess I haven't seen as many GCB polls as I should have. Ds better hope the (likely miniscule) R advantage (if it indeed manifests) is inefficient this November, wasted on blowout margins in rurals.