2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

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https://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics-government/article248870374.html


Donna Shalala considering another FL-27 bid

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TJ Cox is out in CA-21 after poor Q1 fundraising-

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1383088376794927105

Very good, he was literally driftwood in 2018, we need someone better. I am personally hoping Salas runs.

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https://twitter.com/allymutnick/status/1428410708354641926?s=19

Rudy Salas (maybe?) in, he has been viewed as a top challenger to Valadao for many cycles, and his candidacy would greatly help Democratic chances of taking back the competitive (and elastic) 21st district.

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These are not R vs. D but Biden approval numbers, but given how rarely we get any CD polling, I thought I’d post them here and not in the Biden Approval thread (feel free to move).

This is Fabrizio Ward (R) for the National Taxpayers Union:

Biden Approve/Disapprove:
 
AZ-1 (O'Halleran) – 39/60
PA-8 (Cartwright) – 40/57
PA-17 (Lamb) – 38/59
KS-3 (Davids) – 43/57

2020 results in those districts:

AZ-1: Biden 50-48
PA-8: Trump 52-47
PA-17: Biden 51-48
KS-3: Biden 54-44

https://www.ntu.org/publications/detail/ntu-poll-taxpayers-oppose-35-trillion-reconciliation-plan-energy-tax-hike-provisions

I can buy some of these, but really struggle to buy Biden-14 in KS-03 or Biden-21 in PA-17, PA-08 especially is a place where I'd expect Biden to become quite unpopular once he actually starts doing stuff in office, Cartwright is probably doomed, but it's not like we didn't know this anyways.

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Do yourselves a favor and don't entertain olawakandi, he's a troll who will probably get bored if you just let him scream into the air.

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Initial DSCC target list:

The DSCC investment initially will focus on Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. More states and funding could be added in later phases.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/elections/democrats-launch-30-million-field-organizing-program-keep-senate-control-n1279758

Iowa is notably not on the list, but I suspect it may be added if Grassley retires.

Drop Ohio and this a fine list, Democrats should not spend a cent in Ohio. If the DSCC spends in Iowa, they are officially the most stupid campaign organization in existence.

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VA-7: Amanda Chase is in

https://Senator Amanda Chase (@AmandaChaseVA) Tweeted: It’s official. I’m runnin...

Perhaps the one person who could blow a redrawn version of this seat

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Has anyone else noticed that the Democrats have been doing pretty well in generic ballot polling recently? On January 5, 2018, the Dems were up 11 points on the RCP aggregate. The GOP is up by 1.6 right now. 538 had the Democrats up 10, but the Republicans are up by only 0.5 at the moment. The midterms are obviously still going to swing R, but it's probably not going to be some 2010 or 2014 redux like some doomers on here are heralding.

I suspect that Biden's approval will be more predictive ultimately, unless a chunk of that disapproval is coming from D leaning voters, I just don't see many Biden Disapprove/D Congress voters.

Has anyone else noticed that the Democrats have been doing pretty well in generic ballot polling recently? On January 5, 2018, the Dems were up 11 points on the RCP aggregate. The GOP is up by 1.6 right now. 538 had the Democrats up 10, but the Republicans are up by only 0.5 at the moment. The midterms are obviously still going to swing R, but it's probably not going to be some 2010 or 2014 redux like some doomers on here are heralding.

That could be a good point but there is a possibility that republicans will overperform their current polling or gain in their polling lead as the year goes on

This. No Democratic President has had an approval rating lower than Biden's. 2022 will be a red wave of Biblical proportions.

This is an exaggeration, but SnowLabrador has had better takes on 2022 than like 80% of the forum.

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Yet another FAKE POLL coming out here:
https://twitter.com/PollProjectUSA/status/1503087795006451712
FL-1 has a Partisan Voting Index (PVI) of R+30!

Polls gonna poll

The poll didn't include party affiliation, which makes it useless

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Yet another FAKE POLL coming out here:
https://twitter.com/PollProjectUSA/status/1503087795006451712
FL-1 has a Partisan Voting Index (PVI) of R+30!

Polls gonna poll

The poll didn't include party affiliation, which makes it useless

Yeah. That's the biggest problem with this poll...

Well that can easily explain the issue with it as people for all they know could just be saying they want an alternative to Gaetz. Polls that don't list party affiliation tend to have very weird results. This bizarre Utah poll from a few years back is another example: http://utahpolicy.com/index.php/features/today-at-utah-policy/14293-poll-romney-wins-matchup-and-likely-will-run-if-hatch-doesn-t

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The year will be 2040 and Republicans will still be obsessed with winning VA-10, it’s quite hilarious. Even if they somehow win it this year, it’d be an obvious rental and thus not a particularly good source of resources.

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Glad they're realizing that much hyped Yesli Vega is now a flop candidate.

They should start more moves like PA-7, VA-2, NJ-7 to tossup.

Kean and Kiggans will probably still win, but I agree those districts are more like a tossup. It’s just hard to see Kean being a sizable favorite in a Biden+5 seat when Republicans are losing Trump+10 or Biden+1 seats.

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Glad they're realizing that much hyped Yesli Vega is now a flop candidate.

They should start more moves like PA-7, VA-2, NJ-7 to tossup.

Kean and Kiggans will probably still win, but I agree those districts are more like a tossup. It’s just hard to see Kean being a sizable favorite in a Biden+5 seat when Republicans are losing Trump+10 or Biden+1 seats.

Eh, I think Luria will still pull it out. Luria has much more $, and has a lot more visibility now due to the 1/6 panel. Kiggans seems like another hyped candidate like Vega that hasn't really borne out as much as people said they would.

Only thing that gives me pause is that district has a huge military vote which probably turned on Biden after Afghanistan and it saw insane swings toward Youngkin in the 2021 Gov race, combine all of this with Biden’s margin already being narrow though, and it’s clear that it’ll be pretty tough to hold.

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Three millions of dollars being poured into Ohio in a race that Vance was never in any serious risk of losing is stunning.

Apparently the SLF has a different evaluation of the race than you do.

I’m old enough to remember both parties throwing money at states like Iowa and South Carolina in 2020 when many here (correctly) pointed out that both were Safe R the whole time.

Not at the level that the GOP is spending on OH. Also, just b/c something happened in the past doesn't mean it's the same thing this year.

The real answer is that it's dangerous to just let the Democrats bash Vance on the airwaves and do nothing. If the Republicans do nothing to counter the Democratic narrative, that's basically the only route left for Democrats to win Ohio outside of a Democratic tsunami, so it makes sense to put a few million in just to make sure it's actually secure. Even considering all of this, I'd still expect partisanship to bail out Vance in the end even if the Republicans didn't spend much, because of how red it's gotten. I think unless the national environment can get past D+6-7, Ryan's hopes are very, very slim.

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About that American Greatness Poll:

18-39: GOP 48.2-41.6
40-64: GOP 46.7-43.9
65+: DEM 49.7-43.5

sure.jan

It looks like someone got a bit too carried away with the “right wing zoomers” meme. 😛

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Luria hanging on would greatly improve our chances of winning the House majority, so it’s nice to see.

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NRSC spending in CT. HMP spending in NY25. Maybe it's possible that both sides are making some ridiculous spending mistakes right now!

https://twitter.com/MediumBuying/status/1587245416072060928

Well we saw plenty of ridiculous spending mistakes in 2020. Even in a red wave, Blumenthal is not going to lose. This is the definition of throwing money into a fire.

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I think at this point, it’s very clear undecideds are breaking Republican and we’re headed for a Republican leaning year. Incredibly disappointing, but it was always going to be an uphill battle for Democrats to outrun such harsh fundamentals and we should be fortunate that the party isn’t on track to be totally wiped out and reduced to like 180 seats.

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Honestly, I get 2016 vibes here where the race moved towards Republicans (following the Comey Letter), but Clinton regained some ground once the investigation was closed (it obviously was not enough ground in the end). But I'm honestly prepared for anything from like 185-210 Democratic House seats.