2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Devils30]

Ds can keep the house with a 1% PV win. Remember winning Peltola, Kaptur, Golden, Cartwright reduces their need to win every Biden +2 seat.

Rs will also get a huge PV margin out of Florida that will be 20-8 whether it's a 3% win or a 9% win.

[Lief 🗽]

Three traditional high quality polls (Selzer, NBC, ABC/WaPo) showing a tied race in the past 24 hours. Very interesting.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

I see the delusion that the Dems can retain the house is already materializing..

[GeorgiaModerate]

I see the delusion that the Dems can retain the house is already materializing..

It's unlikely and I don't expect it, but it's not impossible if there's some polling error in their favor and inefficient distribution of Republican votes.  538's Deluxe model gives the Democrats a 16% chance -- the same as rolling a one on a six-sided die.

[Person Man]

I see the delusion that the Dems can retain the house is already materializing..

It's unlikely and I don't expect it, but it's not impossible if there's some polling error in their favor and inefficient distribution of Republican votes.  538's Deluxe model gives the Democrats a 16% chance -- the same as rolling a one on a six-sided die.

Pelosi has better odds than Trump did. Then again, she’s a Democrat and then again, Trump is not on the ballot.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I see the delusion that the Dems can retain the house is already materializing..

It's not over til it's over but with a slim majority and Liz Cheney out there she will be campaign for Ds to retake the H in 24 remember during the Gingrich and Boehner Revolution Rs had a 2/3rds majority 241seats they had 230 or less seats in 2017/2019 and lost it in 2018 we will do the same but it's not over til it's over and again I am sure Liz Cheney won't be running as an undu fir Prez she will endorse Ds to retake H in 24 in prep for EC votes count not 1/623 but we must have it in 1/6/25 instead of Speaker Pelosi it's Speaker Jeffries


Some users think just because Rs take the majority 230 or less is improbable to cut but it's not we will take it back before 1/6/25 not 1/623

[Lief 🗽]

I see the delusion that the Dems can retain the house is already materializing..

Of course they can. If you think there is literally a 0% chance of it happening, then you are as delusional and hackish as the ones who think it probably will.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

I see the delusion that the Dems can retain the house is already materializing..

Of course they can. If you think there is literally a 0% chance of it happening, then you are as delusional and hackish as the ones who think it probably will.

House is Safe R and has been for a while.

That's not hackish to suggest.. it's just the realistic conclusion given how dems have consistently had to play defense in districts that if the house was in play, would be easy holds.

[tagimaucia]

It’s very annoying that Selzer does a national poll, but only in March and September(?) and not before actual major elections.

Also, it’s a minor point, but do people not realize that “internals” and partisan polls are not the same thing?  The vast majority (like 90-95%, at least this cycle)  of partisan polls in the RCP/538 averages are not internal campaign polls, they are polls done by partisan firms intended for public consumption.

[wbrocks67]

It’s very annoying that Selzer does a national poll, but only in March and September(?) and not before actual major elections.

Also, it’s a minor point, but do people not realize that “internals” and partisan polls are not the same thing?  The vast majority (like 90-95%, at least this cycle)  of partisan polls in the RCP/538 averages are not internal campaign polls, they are polls done by partisan firms intended for public consumption.

Exactly- a point that Nate Cohn has understood but people like Silver seem to be misunderstanding. No one is claiming that Trafalgar, IA, Co/efficient, Wick are "internals". But they ARE GOP-aligned or GOP-adjacent. Democrats don't really have outfits like this, other than like GSG or GBAO, and they mainly stick to internal polling themselves with little to no public releases. Internals have been pretty rare for both sides this cycle.

[tagimaucia]

I see the delusion that the Dems can retain the house is already materializing..

Of course they can. If you think there is literally a 0% chance of it happening, then you are as delusional and hackish as the ones who think it probably will.

House is Safe R and has been for a while.

That's not hackish to suggest.. it's just the realistic conclusion given how dems have consistently had to play defense in districts that if the house was in play, would be easy holds.

Okay, but by this logic, it would have also been hackish to suggest that the house was going to be anything other than a massive dem blowout in 2020, as the republicans were absolutely “playing defense” in districts they ended up winning by high single and double digits.  Sometimes professional politicos polls and models are just plain wrong.  By all accounts, the Mitt Romney campaign also truly thought they were going to win on election day.

[Unelectable Bystander]

I see the delusion that the Dems can retain the house is already materializing..

Of course they can. If you think there is literally a 0% chance of it happening, then you are as delusional and hackish as the ones who think it probably will.

House is Safe R and has been for a while.

That's not hackish to suggest.. it's just the realistic conclusion given how dems have consistently had to play defense in districts that if the house was in play, would be easy holds.

I concur that the house is gone and I made that call last week, but we will see soon enough.

I also very strongly disagree with the idea that the world operates in Nate Silver’s probability model. I don’t believe he ever has a truly accurate read on the probability of certain outcomes (even if he has the best model out there!). I don’t think it’s accurate to say democrats have a 16% chance in the house. They have some probability, and we don’t really know what it is. Remember, this model also had the democrats at 70% senate odds a few weeks ago, which everybody knows was never the case, and has Walker being the first Republican to win a senate seat.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

I see the delusion that the Dems can retain the house is already materializing..

Of course they can. If you think there is literally a 0% chance of it happening, then you are as delusional and hackish as the ones who think it probably will.

House is Safe R and has been for a while.

That's not hackish to suggest.. it's just the realistic conclusion given how dems have consistently had to play defense in districts that if the house was in play, would be easy holds.

Okay, but by this logic, it would have also been hackish to suggest that the house was going to be anything other than a massive dem blowout in 2020, as the republicans were absolutely “playing defense” in districts they ended up winning by high single and double digits.  Sometimes professional politicos polls and models are just plain wrong.  By all accounts, the Mitt Romney campaign also truly thought they were going to win on election day.

I admire the outright optimism held by some that there is suddenly going to be a massive non response bias, in benefit of dems, due to a few special elections..

Otherwise, the misses have been almost exclusively in one direction.

I'll suggest the house is safe R.. that's my opinion, and it's not hackish to express it.. we'll see on Tuesday.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/SteveKornacki/status/1589257511160655872

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Rs aren't the majority they lost the PVI 80/75M

[tagimaucia]

I see the delusion that the Dems can retain the house is already materializing..

Of course they can. If you think there is literally a 0% chance of it happening, then you are as delusional and hackish as the ones who think it probably will.

House is Safe R and has been for a while.

That's not hackish to suggest.. it's just the realistic conclusion given how dems have consistently had to play defense in districts that if the house was in play, would be easy holds.

Okay, but by this logic, it would have also been hackish to suggest that the house was going to be anything other than a massive dem blowout in 2020, as the republicans were absolutely “playing defense” in districts they ended up winning by high single and double digits.  Sometimes professional politicos polls and models are just plain wrong.  By all accounts, the Mitt Romney campaign also truly thought they were going to win on election day.

I admire the outright optimism held by some that there is suddenly going to be a massive non response bias, in benefit of dems, due to a few special elections..

Otherwise, the misses have been almost exclusively in one direction.

I'll suggest the house is safe R.. that's my opinion, and it's not hackish to express it.. we'll see on Tuesday.

I mean, I think there’s like a 90% chance the republicans win the house, I think it’s just very ahistorical to say that you can predict that polling error could only possibly occur in one direction based on only the last few elections. Over a long time horizon it has bounced around quite a lot. What would have been the argument before the 2012 election that there could actually be a large bias against democrats in the pols?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I see the delusion that the Dems can retain the house is already materializing..

Of course they can. If you think there is literally a 0% chance of it happening, then you are as delusional and hackish as the ones who think it probably will.

House is Safe R and has been for a while.

That's not hackish to suggest.. it's just the realistic conclusion given how dems have consistently had to play defense in districts that if the house was in play, would be easy holds.

Okay, but by this logic, it would have also been hackish to suggest that the house was going to be anything other than a massive dem blowout in 2020, as the republicans were absolutely “playing defense” in districts they ended up winning by high single and double digits.  Sometimes professional politicos polls and models are just plain wrong.  By all accounts, the Mitt Romney campaign also truly thought they were going to win on election day.

I admire the outright optimism held by some that there is suddenly going to be a massive non response bias, in benefit of dems, due to a few special elections..

Otherwise, the misses have been almost exclusively in one direction.

I'll suggest the house is safe R.. that's my opinion, and it's not hackish to express it.. we'll see on Tuesday.

You have Melmet Oz winning MARIST just polled AZ, GA and PA all Ds ahead and Oprah endorsed Fetterman over Oz, do you realize Rs are underperforming 2010(/2014 they won GA, AR, AK, CO and LA Inc seats they might not even one, Obama had 44% approvals, like Biden compared to other Midterms Rs are underpolling Ds 2006/2018 and Rs 1994/2010/2014 that's why there is optimistic

[Agafin]

So pretty much every A+ pollster is showing a tied race. Hmmm.

[kwabbit]

Are Dems getting an Obama bump? A Paul Pelosi bump? It does seem like GOP momentum is blunted right now.

[Devils30]

Are Dems getting an Obama bump? A Paul Pelosi bump? It does seem like GOP momentum is blunted right now.

It is a weird day, like Ds if they actually win by 1% are not far off from a House stunner.

[Eraserhead]

We're gonna have the actual results in a couple of days. It's nice to see but I wouldn't get too worked up over it.

[Comrade Funk]

Are Dems getting an Obama bump? A Paul Pelosi bump? It does seem like GOP momentum is blunted right now.

Paul Pelosi bump lol? Just as real as Trump's  Kanye bump.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Rs have always underpolled their performance in 2010/2014 anyways they won the PVI 48/42 on the GCB in both Edays because they campaigned against Obamacare likewise in 1994 when Larry Craig Filibustered Hillarycare we are in a Pandemic SCOTUS affirmed Obamacare just like R🥰 Warren Crt reversed Apartheid

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Youngkin won and Rs aren't gonna get shut out but they should of swept with Biden 44% Approvals all special and they lost Cali recall and NY 19 and AK that told you right there Rs were gonna underpoll

[Person Man]

Are Dems getting an Obama bump? A Paul Pelosi bump? It does seem like GOP momentum is blunted right now.

We can only hope that the attempted assassination of the most senior official on the ballot by an activist radicalized by the opposition has at least some repercussions. After this, if the Republican Party still wins big or even by a typical amount, that shows that terrorism has no more or less influence on policy as protesting does. At that point, it becomes inevitable that protesting must give way to either obedience or resistance.