COVID-19 Megathread 6: Return of the Omicron

[Dr. Arch]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 9/27 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

ΔW Change: Comparisons of Weekly Day-to-day Growth or Decline of COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Comparing the numbers to the same day of last week, are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE: What's the overall change in the total?

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9/20: <Sunday>

• Cases: 7,004,768 (+37,365 | ΔW Change: ↑17.29% | Σ Increase: ↑0.54%)
• Deaths: 204,118 (+294 | ΔW Change: ↓25.00% | Σ Increase: ↑0.14%)

9/21: <M>

• Cases: 7,046,216 (+41,448 | ΔW Change: ↑1.51% | Σ Increase: ↑0.59%)
• Deaths: 204,506 (+388 | ΔW Change: ↓19.17% | Σ Increase: ↑0.19%)

9/22: <T>

• Cases: 7,097,937 (+51,721 | ΔW Change: ↑34.52% | Σ Increase: ↑0.59%)
• Deaths: 205,471 (+965 | ΔW Change: ↓18.08% | Σ Increase: ↑0.19%)

9/23: <W>

• Cases: 7,139,553 (+41,616 | ΔW Change: ↑2.59% | Σ Increase: ↑0.59%)
• Deaths: 206,593 (+1,122 | ΔW Change: ↓4.10% | Σ Increase: ↑0.55%)

9/24: <Þ>

• Cases: 7,185,471 (+45,918 | ΔW Change: ↓0.72% | Σ Increase: ↑0.64%)
• Deaths: 207,538 (+945 | ΔW Change: ↑9.25% | Σ Increase: ↑0.46%)

9/25: <F>

• Cases: 7,244,184 (+58,713 | ΔW Change: ↑14.25% | Σ Increase: ↑0.82%)
• Deaths: 208,440 (+902 | ΔW Change: ↓5.85% | Σ Increase: ↑0.43%)

9/26 (Yesterday): <S>

• Cases: 7,287,561 (+43,377 | ΔW Change: ↑4.62% | Σ Increase: ↑0.60%)
• Deaths: 209,177 (+737 | ΔW Change: ↑12.86% | Σ Increase: ↑0.35%)

9/27 (Today): <Sunday>

• Cases: 7,320,669 (+33,108 | ΔW Change: ↓11.39% | Σ Increase: ↑0.45%)
• Deaths: 209,453 (+276 | ΔW Change: ↓6.12% | Σ Increase: ↑0.13%)

[Bandit3 the Worker]

This had to happen sooner or later, and it's good news: The positivity rate in the U.S. for the past 7 days just fell to 4.66%, the lowest 7-day rate since at least March 6, probably even February.

Also, the positivity rate for just today was 3.66%, the lowest since March 4.

[Dr. Arch]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 9/28 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

ΔW Change: Comparisons of Weekly Day-to-day Growth or Decline of COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Comparing the numbers to the same day of last week, are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE: What's the overall change in the total?

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9/20: <Sunday>

• Cases: 7,004,768 (+37,365 | ΔW Change: ↑17.29% | Σ Increase: ↑0.54%)
• Deaths: 204,118 (+294 | ΔW Change: ↓25.00% | Σ Increase: ↑0.14%)

9/21: <M>

• Cases: 7,046,216 (+41,448 | ΔW Change: ↑1.51% | Σ Increase: ↑0.59%)
• Deaths: 204,506 (+388 | ΔW Change: ↓19.17% | Σ Increase: ↑0.19%)

9/22: <T>

• Cases: 7,097,937 (+51,721 | ΔW Change: ↑34.52% | Σ Increase: ↑0.59%)
• Deaths: 205,471 (+965 | ΔW Change: ↓18.08% | Σ Increase: ↑0.19%)

9/23: <W>

• Cases: 7,139,553 (+41,616 | ΔW Change: ↑2.59% | Σ Increase: ↑0.59%)
• Deaths: 206,593 (+1,122 | ΔW Change: ↓4.10% | Σ Increase: ↑0.55%)

9/24: <Þ>

• Cases: 7,185,471 (+45,918 | ΔW Change: ↓0.72% | Σ Increase: ↑0.64%)
• Deaths: 207,538 (+945 | ΔW Change: ↑9.25% | Σ Increase: ↑0.46%)

9/25: <F>

• Cases: 7,244,184 (+58,713 | ΔW Change: ↑14.25% | Σ Increase: ↑0.82%)
• Deaths: 208,440 (+902 | ΔW Change: ↓5.85% | Σ Increase: ↑0.43%)

9/26: <S>

• Cases: 7,287,561 (+43,377 | ΔW Change: ↑4.62% | Σ Increase: ↑0.60%)
• Deaths: 209,177 (+737 | ΔW Change: ↑12.86% | Σ Increase: ↑0.35%)

9/27 (Yesterday): <Sunday>

• Cases: 7,320,669 (+33,108 | ΔW Change: ↓11.39% | Σ Increase: ↑0.45%)
• Deaths: 209,453 (+276 | ΔW Change: ↓6.12% | Σ Increase: ↑0.13%)

9/28 (Today): <M>

• Cases: 7,361,611 (+40,942 | ΔW Change: ↓1.22% | Σ Increase: ↑0.56%)
• Deaths: 209,808 (+355 | ΔW Change: ↓8.51% | Σ Increase: ↑0.17%)

[KaiserDave]

New York has gotten worse recently. Not at all similar to March, but it's gone up above 3% positivity and above 1,000 cases a day (well it was for one day).

[Gass3268]

Green Bay is a s-show right now.

https://twitter.com/jasonfechner/status/1311031444626702339?s=20

[Dr. Arch]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 9/29 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

ΔW Change: Comparisons of Weekly Day-to-day Growth or Decline of COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Comparing the numbers to the same day of last week, are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE: What's the overall change in the total?

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9/20: <Sunday>

• Cases: 7,004,768 (+37,365 | ΔW Change: ↑17.29% | Σ Increase: ↑0.54%)
• Deaths: 204,118 (+294 | ΔW Change: ↓25.00% | Σ Increase: ↑0.14%)

9/21: <M>

• Cases: 7,046,216 (+41,448 | ΔW Change: ↑1.51% | Σ Increase: ↑0.59%)
• Deaths: 204,506 (+388 | ΔW Change: ↓19.17% | Σ Increase: ↑0.19%)

9/22: <T>

• Cases: 7,097,937 (+51,721 | ΔW Change: ↑34.52% | Σ Increase: ↑0.59%)
• Deaths: 205,471 (+965 | ΔW Change: ↓18.08% | Σ Increase: ↑0.19%)

9/23: <W>

• Cases: 7,139,553 (+41,616 | ΔW Change: ↑2.59% | Σ Increase: ↑0.59%)
• Deaths: 206,593 (+1,122 | ΔW Change: ↓4.10% | Σ Increase: ↑0.55%)

9/24: <Þ>

• Cases: 7,185,471 (+45,918 | ΔW Change: ↓0.72% | Σ Increase: ↑0.64%)
• Deaths: 207,538 (+945 | ΔW Change: ↑9.25% | Σ Increase: ↑0.46%)

9/25: <F>

• Cases: 7,244,184 (+58,713 | ΔW Change: ↑14.25% | Σ Increase: ↑0.82%)
• Deaths: 208,440 (+902 | ΔW Change: ↓5.85% | Σ Increase: ↑0.43%)

9/26: <S>

• Cases: 7,287,561 (+43,377 | ΔW Change: ↑4.62% | Σ Increase: ↑0.60%)
• Deaths: 209,177 (+737 | ΔW Change: ↑12.86% | Σ Increase: ↑0.35%)

9/27: <Sunday>

• Cases: 7,320,669 (+33,108 | ΔW Change: ↓11.39% | Σ Increase: ↑0.45%)
• Deaths: 209,453 (+276 | ΔW Change: ↓6.12% | Σ Increase: ↑0.13%)

9/28 (Yesterday): <M>

• Cases: 7,361,611 (+40,942 | ΔW Change: ↓1.22% | Σ Increase: ↑0.56%)
• Deaths: 209,808 (+355 | ΔW Change: ↓8.51% | Σ Increase: ↑0.17%)

9/29 (Today): <T>

• Cases: 7,406,146 (+44,535 | ΔW Change: ↓13.89% | Σ Increase: ↑0.60%)
• Deaths: 210,785 (+977 | ΔW Change: ↑1.24% | Σ Increase: ↑0.47%)

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Yesterday was another record low for the 7-day positivity rate: 4.64%.

[FerrisBueller86]

Why has there been no national dialogue about the role of diet and nutrition during this pandemic?  Out of all the factors that have made the pandemic so much worse here in the US, this is the one that individuals have the most control over by far.

There's something horribly wrong when the idea of injecting or drinking bleach has made it into the national dialogue but improving one's diet and nutritional habits have not.  Consuming refined sugar, high fructose corn syrup, and other unhealthy junk food ingredients weakens the immune system and promotes inflammation.  As I see it, the health risk of consuming junk food has MULTIPLIED by orders of magnitude.  Gone are the days when the risk was limited to higher blood cholesterol and weight gain.  On the other hand, superfoods have nutrients that strengthen the immune system, reduce inflammation, and possibly even disable viruses.

I have improved my diet since the pandemic started, and this precaution is IN ADDITION TO wearing a face mask in public indoor places and in outdoor places where I cannot count on always keeping 6 feet away from people.  (Parks with narrow trails are an example.)  I'm avoiding all junk food until this pandemic is over.  Yes, I'm even skipping the holiday treats this year.  I'm eating as many superfoods as possible.  I'm eating a Brazil nut every day for the selenium, sauerkraut every day for the probiotics, natto every day for the probiotics and Vitamin K2, pineapple for the bromelain, and onion for the quercetin.  I continued taking Vitamin D and C supplements this summer, the time of year when I took a break from them in the past.

Why hasn't everyone else made the same dietary improvements that I've made?  When I go to the grocery store, I still see people with shopping carts full of junk food.  It's as if they're living in an alternate universe.  I find myself thinking, "Would it kill you to eat some real food?"

[GeorgiaModerate]

I would like to thank Arch for his dedication and putting in the work to post the daily numbers and keep us informed through this long slog.  I'm sure that many people here appreciate it as much as I do.

[woodley park]

With Florida throwing its doors back open, how long will it take before we start noticing a spike in cases? About two weeks?

[Bandit3 the Worker]

With Florida throwing its doors back open, how long will it take before we start noticing a spike in cases? About two weeks?

Not gonna happen. Guaranteed.

[woodley park]

With Florida throwing its doors back open, how long will it take before we start noticing a spike in cases? About two weeks?

Not gonna happen. Guaranteed.

Based on what? Opening up bars and restaurants is very likely to lead to a spike in cases, so long as COVID remains unchecked. Which it very much is.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Based on what? Opening up bars and restaurants is very likely to lead to a spike in cases, so long as COVID remains unchecked. Which it very much is.

Much of Florida has herd immunity now.

[Pericles]

With Florida throwing its doors back open, how long will it take before we start noticing a spike in cases? About two weeks?

Not gonna happen. Guaranteed.

You can't just wish Covid away.

[cg41386]

Based on what? Opening up bars and restaurants is very likely to lead to a spike in cases, so long as COVID remains unchecked. Which it very much is.

Much of Florida has herd immunity now.

There is no known “herd immunity” for this. Full stop.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

There is no known “herd immunity” for this. Full stop.

NY, CT, AZ, DC...

[GeorgiaModerate]

Based on what? Opening up bars and restaurants is very likely to lead to a spike in cases, so long as COVID remains unchecked. Which it very much is.

Much of Florida has herd immunity now.

That's just ridiculous if you take even a brief look at the numbers.  The population of Florida is about 21 million.  They've reported just over 700,000 cases.  Even if we assume that as few as 1/5 of total cases have been detected, that would be 3.5 million cases, or about 17% of the state's population.   That's far too low to achieve herd immunity.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

That's just ridiculous if you take even a brief look at the numbers.  The population of Florida is about 21 million.  They've reported just over 700,000 cases.  Even if we assume that as few as 1/5 of total cases have been detected, that would be 3.5 million cases, or about 17% of the state's population.   That's far too low to achieve herd immunity.

The herd immunity threshold is not 70% like we once thought.

[GeorgiaModerate]

That's just ridiculous if you take even a brief look at the numbers.  The population of Florida is about 21 million.  They've reported just over 700,000 cases.  Even if we assume that as few as 1/5 of total cases have been detected, that would be 3.5 million cases, or about 17% of the state's population.   That's far too low to achieve herd immunity.

The herd immunity threshold is not 70% like we once thought.

Citation?

[cg41386]

That's just ridiculous if you take even a brief look at the numbers.  The population of Florida is about 21 million.  They've reported just over 700,000 cases.  Even if we assume that as few as 1/5 of total cases have been detected, that would be 3.5 million cases, or about 17% of the state's population.   That's far too low to achieve herd immunity.

The herd immunity threshold is not 70% like we once thought.

Citation?

The voices in his head.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

That's just ridiculous if you take even a brief look at the numbers.  The population of Florida is about 21 million.  They've reported just over 700,000 cases.  Even if we assume that as few as 1/5 of total cases have been detected, that would be 3.5 million cases, or about 17% of the state's population.   That's far too low to achieve herd immunity.

The herd immunity threshold is not 70% like we once thought.

Citation?

https://reaction.life/we-may-already-have-herd-immunity-an-interview-with-professor-sunetra-gupta

[100% pro-life no matter what]

With Florida throwing its doors back open, how long will it take before we start noticing a spike in cases? About two weeks?

Not gonna happen. Guaranteed.

Tennessee also ended all remaining restrictions this week.  But, the thing in Tennessee (and probably Florida) is that there haven't been any significant restrictions in a while.  Large, maskless gatherings have been happening.  Restaurants have been bustling like there was no covid.  My church's attendance is almost back to pre-covid levels (and 99% don't wear masks).  Groups of friends will play sports with each other, inherently coming in contact with others.  People hug and shake hands when they see each other.  Other than my work (by national corporate policy) still being work-from-home, my life is basically back to where it was in February (and actually, I'm probably seeing more people due to prioritizing community more).  That's the same for most people I know.

So, these liftings of the handful of restrictions that still remain might get press, but people's behavior has long shown that covid is over (not in terms of virus spread, but in terms of people being willing to forego living normally) in large swaths of America.  In my bubble of young evangelicals in suburban Tennessee, you would never even know that there was a virus.

[Calthrina950]

With Florida throwing its doors back open, how long will it take before we start noticing a spike in cases? About two weeks?

Not gonna happen. Guaranteed.

Tennessee also ended all remaining restrictions this week.  But, the thing in Tennessee (and probably Florida) is that there haven't been any significant restrictions in a while.  Large, maskless gatherings have been happening.  Restaurants have been bustling like there was no covid.  My church's attendance is almost back to pre-covid levels (and 99% don't wear masks).  Groups of friends will play sports with each other, inherently coming in contact with others.  People hug and shake hands when they see each other.  Other than my work (by national corporate policy) still being work-from-home, my life is basically back to where it was in February (and actually, I'm probably seeing more people due to prioritizing community more).  That's the same for most people I know.

So, these liftings of the handful of restrictions that still remain might get press, but people's behavior has long shown that covid is over (not in terms of virus spread, but in terms of people being willing to forego living normally) in large swaths of America.  In my bubble of young evangelicals in suburban Tennessee, you would never even know that there was a virus.

One thing I've continued to notice-and which I've made note of-is that the numbers of maskless customers at my job have increased, and are increasing. The breakdown is probably closer to 75-25% at this point. I am starting to seriously doubt whether or not all of this can be sustained for another six or seven months. Yes, I'm aware of the deaths and illnesses attributable to this virus, but I've grown increasingly frustrated with the masks and all of the other dystopian restrictions which has been brought out because of the virus.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

That's just ridiculous if you take even a brief look at the numbers.  The population of Florida is about 21 million.  They've reported just over 700,000 cases.  Even if we assume that as few as 1/5 of total cases have been detected, that would be 3.5 million cases, or about 17% of the state's population.   That's far too low to achieve herd immunity.

The herd immunity threshold is not 70% like we once thought.

Citation?

I posted this article from WaPo a few weeks ago suggesting the herd immunity threshold might actually be as low as 20%:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/the_americas/brazil-coronavirus-manaus-herd-immunity/2020/08/23/0eccda40-d80e-11ea-930e-d88518c57dcc_story.html

[Dr. Arch]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 9/30 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

ΔW Change: Comparisons of Weekly Day-to-day Growth or Decline of COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Comparing the numbers to the same day of last week, are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE: What's the overall change in the total?

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9/20: <Sunday>

• Cases: 7,004,768 (+37,365 | ΔW Change: ↑17.29% | Σ Increase: ↑0.54%)
• Deaths: 204,118 (+294 | ΔW Change: ↓25.00% | Σ Increase: ↑0.14%)

9/21: <M>

• Cases: 7,046,216 (+41,448 | ΔW Change: ↑1.51% | Σ Increase: ↑0.59%)
• Deaths: 204,506 (+388 | ΔW Change: ↓19.17% | Σ Increase: ↑0.19%)

9/22: <T>

• Cases: 7,097,937 (+51,721 | ΔW Change: ↑34.52% | Σ Increase: ↑0.59%)
• Deaths: 205,471 (+965 | ΔW Change: ↓18.08% | Σ Increase: ↑0.19%)

9/23: <W>

• Cases: 7,139,553 (+41,616 | ΔW Change: ↑2.59% | Σ Increase: ↑0.59%)
• Deaths: 206,593 (+1,122 | ΔW Change: ↓4.10% | Σ Increase: ↑0.55%)

9/24: <Þ>

• Cases: 7,185,471 (+45,918 | ΔW Change: ↓0.72% | Σ Increase: ↑0.64%)
• Deaths: 207,538 (+945 | ΔW Change: ↑9.25% | Σ Increase: ↑0.46%)

9/25: <F>

• Cases: 7,244,184 (+58,713 | ΔW Change: ↑14.25% | Σ Increase: ↑0.82%)
• Deaths: 208,440 (+902 | ΔW Change: ↓5.85% | Σ Increase: ↑0.43%)

9/26: <S>

• Cases: 7,287,561 (+43,377 | ΔW Change: ↑4.62% | Σ Increase: ↑0.60%)
• Deaths: 209,177 (+737 | ΔW Change: ↑12.86% | Σ Increase: ↑0.35%)

9/27: <Sunday>

• Cases: 7,320,669 (+33,108 | ΔW Change: ↓11.39% | Σ Increase: ↑0.45%)
• Deaths: 209,453 (+276 | ΔW Change: ↓6.12% | Σ Increase: ↑0.13%)

9/28: <M>

• Cases: 7,361,611 (+40,942 | ΔW Change: ↓1.22% | Σ Increase: ↑0.56%)
• Deaths: 209,808 (+355 | ΔW Change: ↓8.51% | Σ Increase: ↑0.17%)

9/29 (Yesterday): <T>

• Cases: 7,406,146 (+44,535 | ΔW Change: ↓13.89% | Σ Increase: ↑0.60%)
• Deaths: 210,785 (+977 | ΔW Change: ↑1.24% | Σ Increase: ↑0.47%)

9/30 (Today): <W>

• Cases: 7,447,282 (+41,136 | ΔW Change: ↓1.15% | Σ Increase: ↑0.56%)
• Deaths: 211,740 (+955 | ΔW Change: ↓14.88% | Σ Increase: ↑0.45%)