OH-Sen 2022: So you’re telling me there’s a chance

[Rjjr77]

maybe not so fast.

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/ohio-gop-central-committee-state-county-chairs-trump-endorse-vance

I don't think a letter from the Ohio establishment will change his mind. The only thing that could possibly affect his thinking is that laughably fake poll Mandel pushed out today that Trump could take seriously.

The Ohio Establishment was torn down and entirely remade after trump took over the ORP, wouldnt be surprised if this actually changed his mind. The kasich party in Ohio is dead.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

maybe not so fast.

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/ohio-gop-central-committee-state-county-chairs-trump-endorse-vance

I don't think a letter from the Ohio establishment will change his mind. The only thing that could possibly affect his thinking is that laughably fake poll Mandel pushed out today that Trump could take seriously.

The Ohio Establishment was torn down and entirely remade after trump took over the ORP, wouldnt be surprised if this actually changed his mind. The kasich party in Ohio is dead.

I doubt it'll change his mind. I don't think Trump values the Ohio establishment's opinion on the race more than MTG, Hawley and Tucker's.
And the reasons they gave won't change his mind either because Trump already knows what Vance said in '16 and has forgiven him for it (and all of us obviously know the real reason they don't want Vance is that he's not hard-right economically).

Like I said the only thing which might dissuade Trump is if he thinks Vance can't win. Trafalgar is releasing a poll on this race soon so that might decide it.

[Ferguson97]

maybe not so fast.

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/ohio-gop-central-committee-state-county-chairs-trump-endorse-vance

I don't think a letter from the Ohio establishment will change his mind. The only thing that could possibly affect his thinking is that laughably fake poll Mandel pushed out today that Trump could take seriously.

He needs to endorse soon though; early voting has already begun for nearly a week now.

I imagine those who are waiting for Trump's endorsement would just vote in-person, no?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

maybe not so fast.

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/ohio-gop-central-committee-state-county-chairs-trump-endorse-vance

I don't think a letter from the Ohio establishment will change his mind. The only thing that could possibly affect his thinking is that laughably fake poll Mandel pushed out today that Trump could take seriously.

The Ohio Establishment was torn down and entirely remade after trump took over the ORP, wouldnt be surprised if this actually changed his mind. The kasich party in Ohio is dead.

I doubt it'll change his mind. I don't think Trump values the Ohio establishment's opinion on the race more than MTG, Hawley and Tucker's.
And the reasons they gave won't change his mind either because Trump already knows what Vance said in '16 and has forgiven him for it (and all of us obviously know the real reason they don't want Vance is that he's not hard-right economically).

Like I said the only thing which might dissuade Trump is if he thinks Vance can't win. Trafalgar is releasing a poll on this race soon so that might decide it.

Vance is pretty hard right on economic issues (it’s part of why Thiel has gone all in on him), he just uses *somewhat* different rhetoric than Gibbons.  There are a few reasons the Ohio GOP establishment is likely hostile to Vance:

1) Timkin is regarded as “one of their own” by many of the Trumpists who now form the new OH GOP establishment, especially given that she helped lead the Trumpist takeover of the state party and purge/dismantlement of much of the Kasich/Matt Borges wing of the OH GOP.  By contrast, some see Vance as a Johnny-Come-Lately, Silicon Valley interloper trying to steal the seat from under them.  

2) While he isn’t utterly despised for it by everyone the way former OSU College Democrats President Josh Mandel is, there is a general sentiment that Vance is a phony who was a #NeverTrumper until it became politically convenient to be pro-Trump and now expects to just cut in front of everyone else.  

3) Supporters of any other candidate obviously would rather Trump stay neutral than endorse Vance (or anyone else who isn’t their preferred candidate )

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

maybe not so fast.

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/ohio-gop-central-committee-state-county-chairs-trump-endorse-vance

I don't think a letter from the Ohio establishment will change his mind. The only thing that could possibly affect his thinking is that laughably fake poll Mandel pushed out today that Trump could take seriously.

The Ohio Establishment was torn down and entirely remade after trump took over the ORP, wouldnt be surprised if this actually changed his mind. The kasich party in Ohio is dead.

I doubt it'll change his mind. I don't think Trump values the Ohio establishment's opinion on the race more than MTG, Hawley and Tucker's.
And the reasons they gave won't change his mind either because Trump already knows what Vance said in '16 and has forgiven him for it (and all of us obviously know the real reason they don't want Vance is that he's not hard-right economically).

Like I said the only thing which might dissuade Trump is if he thinks Vance can't win. Trafalgar is releasing a poll on this race soon so that might decide it.

Vance is pretty hard right on economic issues (it’s part of why Thiel has gone all in on him), he just uses *somewhat* different rhetoric than Gibbons.  There are a few reasons the Ohio GOP establishment is likely hostile to Vance:

1) Timkin is regarded as “one of their own” by many of the Trumpists who now form the new OH GOP establishment, especially given that she helped lead the Trumpist takeover of the state party and purge/dismantlement of much of the Kasich/Matt Borges wing of the OH GOP.  By contrast, some see Vance as a Johnny-Come-Lately, Silicon Valley interloper trying to steal the seat from under them.  

2) While he isn’t utterly despised for it by everyone the way former OSU College Democrats President Josh Mandel is, there is a general sentiment that Vance is a phony who was a #NeverTrumper until it became politically convenient to be pro-Trump and now expects to just cut in front of everyone else.  

3) Supporters of any other candidate obviously would rather Trump stay neutral than endorse Vance (or anyone else who isn’t their preferred candidate )

Actually I agree with you, you made some good points.
Anyway I do expect Vance to get the endorsement, likely after Trafalgar's poll comes out and shows Vance doing pretty well (he's always done better in their polls than other pollsters). Trump will either endorse Vance or no one, and endorsing no one is giving up his leverage in future races, as what was the point of all the candidates groveling for his endorsement if he didn't end up endorsing anyway? He also wouldn't look like he's giving in to the establishment.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

https://twitter.com/RobertCahaly/status/1514954937960177668

[Huey Long is a Republican]

https://twitter.com/RobertCahaly/status/1514954937960177668

And Mandel tried to release a fake poll here

https://twitter.com/MarcACaputo/status/1514671343052242951?t=mQJYgg1_OSATzmSadqC...

Anyways, hello Sen Vance

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/teddyschleifer/status/1515073197120450560

[Huey Long is a Republican]

https://twitter.com/teddyschleifer/status/1515073197120450560

Looks like Loser Mandel's fake poll was considered what it really is - Trash

Here's to a Senator Vance in 2023 and hopefully a Senator Davidson or Rennacci in 2025

[Sub Jero]

https://mobile.twitter.com/mh4oh/status/1512129528088477696?cxt=HHwWgIC-gerylPwp...Won’t be enough.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/RobertCahaly/status/1514954937960177668

And Mandel tried to release a fake poll here

https://twitter.com/MarcACaputo/status/1514671343052242951?t=mQJYgg1_OSATzmSadqC...
Anyways, hello Sen Vance

Fantastic endorsement !

[Coldstream]

I don’t know whether Trump is just stupid, has useless advisers, or just naturally gravitates to other frauds. Vance is the most likely to lose a GE & the most likely to be disloyal should they both be in office together. Mandel, Timken actually believe in Trumpist lunacy, and Gibbons is a Rand Paul type who will go along with the isolationist stuff. Vance quite plainly believes in nothing, he’s like Lindsey Graham. There is literally no upside to this for Trump.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

I don’t know whether Trump is just stupid, has useless advisers, or just naturally gravitates to other frauds. Vance is the most likely to lose a GE & the most likely to be disloyal should they both be in office together. Mandel, Timken actually believe in Trumpist lunacy, and Gibbons is a Rand Paul type who will go along with the isolationist stuff. Vance quite plainly believes in nothing, he’s like Lindsey Graham. There is literally no upside to this for Trump.

Most likely to lose a GE..? It's Safe R either way.

The possibility of a republican losing Ohio in this environment shouldn't even be discussed seriously.

[Sub Jero]

https://mobile.twitter.com/JDVance1/status/1515075856502177793?cxt=HHwWgoCqqdvd0...

[Coldstream]

I don’t know whether Trump is just stupid, has useless advisers, or just naturally gravitates to other frauds. Vance is the most likely to lose a GE & the most likely to be disloyal should they both be in office together. Mandel, Timken actually believe in Trumpist lunacy, and Gibbons is a Rand Paul type who will go along with the isolationist stuff. Vance quite plainly believes in nothing, he’s like Lindsey Graham. There is literally no upside to this for Trump.

Most likely to lose a GE..? It's Safe R either way.

The possibility of a republican losing Ohio in this environment shouldn't even be discussed seriously.

The most recent GCB was D+3, now I expect the Republicans to win both this senate race and the eventual total vote, but acting like this is some R+20 year is ridiculous. It’s more than possible that a guy as unlikeable, inexperienced and impossible to relate to like Vance could lose - even if I don’t personally expect him to. Whilst there’s no chance even a creep like Mandel would lose it.

If anyone in this race has Akin/Moore style skeletons in his closet, it’ll be Vance.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

I don’t know whether Trump is just stupid, has useless advisers, or just naturally gravitates to other frauds. Vance is the most likely to lose a GE & the most likely to be disloyal should they both be in office together. Mandel, Timken actually believe in Trumpist lunacy, and Gibbons is a Rand Paul type who will go along with the isolationist stuff. Vance quite plainly believes in nothing, he’s like Lindsey Graham. There is literally no upside to this for Trump.

Most likely to lose a GE..? It's Safe R either way.

The possibility of a republican losing Ohio in this environment shouldn't even be discussed seriously.

The most recent GCB was D+3, now I expect the Republicans to win both this senate race and the eventual total vote, but acting like this is some R+20 year is ridiculous. It’s more than possible that a guy as unlikeable, inexperienced and impossible to relate to like Vance could lose - even if I don’t personally expect him to. Whilst there’s no chance even a creep like Mandel would lose it.

If anyone in this race has Akin/Moore style skeletons in his closet, it’ll be Vance.

A +3 R Generic Ballot is virtually unheard of in April of a midterm year.. the GOP vote tends to consolidate in the fall, and there is still a ton of undecideds which are likely to lean R.

Even if it eventually ends up +3, that's 6 points to the right of 2020...Ohio is Safe R.

[Calthrina950]

I don’t know whether Trump is just stupid, has useless advisers, or just naturally gravitates to other frauds. Vance is the most likely to lose a GE & the most likely to be disloyal should they both be in office together. Mandel, Timken actually believe in Trumpist lunacy, and Gibbons is a Rand Paul type who will go along with the isolationist stuff. Vance quite plainly believes in nothing, he’s like Lindsey Graham. There is literally no upside to this for Trump.

Most likely to lose a GE..? It's Safe R either way.

The possibility of a republican losing Ohio in this environment shouldn't even be discussed seriously.

Moreover, Vance, out of all the candidates, is the one who is closest to Trump's views, and Mandel, you could argue, is just as much an opportunist as he is. This is to say nothing of his close friendship with Trump Jr., which was a major reason why he got Trump's endorsement.

[ElectionsGuy]

I don’t know whether Trump is just stupid, has useless advisers, or just naturally gravitates to other frauds. Vance is the most likely to lose a GE & the most likely to be disloyal should they both be in office together. Mandel, Timken actually believe in Trumpist lunacy, and Gibbons is a Rand Paul type who will go along with the isolationist stuff. Vance quite plainly believes in nothing, he’s like Lindsey Graham. There is literally no upside to this for Trump.

Most likely to lose a GE..? It's Safe R either way.

The possibility of a republican losing Ohio in this environment shouldn't even be discussed seriously.

The most recent GCB was D+3, now I expect the Republicans to win both this senate race and the eventual total vote, but acting like this is some R+20 year is ridiculous. It’s more than possible that a guy as unlikeable, inexperienced and impossible to relate to like Vance could lose - even if I don’t personally expect him to. Whilst there’s no chance even a creep like Mandel would lose it.

If anyone in this race has Akin/Moore style skeletons in his closet, it’ll be Vance.

Yes, I don't see Vance relating well with the young white college-educated urban internet forum poster crowd.

Jeez people, y'all act like because YOU can't relate to him, nobody else can. When Vance wins the GE easily, it's going to be another smack to the face to how detached this crowd is from everyone else.

And I don't even want to defend Vance here. But this is absurd.

[Calthrina950]

I don’t know whether Trump is just stupid, has useless advisers, or just naturally gravitates to other frauds. Vance is the most likely to lose a GE & the most likely to be disloyal should they both be in office together. Mandel, Timken actually believe in Trumpist lunacy, and Gibbons is a Rand Paul type who will go along with the isolationist stuff. Vance quite plainly believes in nothing, he’s like Lindsey Graham. There is literally no upside to this for Trump.

Most likely to lose a GE..? It's Safe R either way.

The possibility of a republican losing Ohio in this environment shouldn't even be discussed seriously.

The most recent GCB was D+3, now I expect the Republicans to win both this senate race and the eventual total vote, but acting like this is some R+20 year is ridiculous. It’s more than possible that a guy as unlikeable, inexperienced and impossible to relate to like Vance could lose - even if I don’t personally expect him to. Whilst there’s no chance even a creep like Mandel would lose it.

If anyone in this race has Akin/Moore style skeletons in his closet, it’ll be Vance.

Yes, I don't see Vance relating well with the young white college-educated urban internet forum poster crowd.

Jeez people, y'all act like because YOU can't relate to him, nobody else can. When Vance wins the GE easily, it's going to be another smack to the face to how detached this crowd is from everyone else.

And I don't even want to defend Vance here. But this is absurd.

I've grown increasingly wary of how Atlas evaluates political candidates. I've also said before that I feel many posters on here wish that this would be a one-party country, with Democrats, and only Democrats, holding political power. There doesn't seem to be a tolerance for a diversity of political thought by many here, and it is certainly distressing.

[Alben Barkley]

Congratulations to Senator-elect Vance.

[Coldstream]

I don’t know whether Trump is just stupid, has useless advisers, or just naturally gravitates to other frauds. Vance is the most likely to lose a GE & the most likely to be disloyal should they both be in office together. Mandel, Timken actually believe in Trumpist lunacy, and Gibbons is a Rand Paul type who will go along with the isolationist stuff. Vance quite plainly believes in nothing, he’s like Lindsey Graham. There is literally no upside to this for Trump.

Most likely to lose a GE..? It's Safe R either way.

The possibility of a republican losing Ohio in this environment shouldn't even be discussed seriously.

The most recent GCB was D+3, now I expect the Republicans to win both this senate race and the eventual total vote, but acting like this is some R+20 year is ridiculous. It’s more than possible that a guy as unlikeable, inexperienced and impossible to relate to like Vance could lose - even if I don’t personally expect him to. Whilst there’s no chance even a creep like Mandel would lose it.

If anyone in this race has Akin/Moore style skeletons in his closet, it’ll be Vance.

Yes, I don't see Vance relating well with the young white college-educated urban internet forum poster crowd.

Jeez people, y'all act like because YOU can't relate to him, nobody else can. When Vance wins the GE easily, it's going to be another smack to the face to how detached this crowd is from everyone else.

And I don't even want to defend Vance here. But this is absurd.

Just…what on Earth are you talking about? Literally his only supporters were aggressively online before a couple of weeks ago, there’s a reason he was on 4% before Trump came in to the picture.

If he wins the primary it’ll be because of Trump, if he wins the GE it’ll be because of the R next to his name - in spite of everything else about him.

If I’m guilty of overestimating people then so be it, but I think there is something deeply wrong with you if you believe a multi millionaire hedge fund guy who worked for *Peter Thiel* and changes ideologies the way normal people change clothes is ‘relatable’.

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

I don’t know whether Trump is just stupid, has useless advisers, or just naturally gravitates to other frauds. Vance is the most likely to lose a GE & the most likely to be disloyal should they both be in office together. Mandel, Timken actually believe in Trumpist lunacy, and Gibbons is a Rand Paul type who will go along with the isolationist stuff. Vance quite plainly believes in nothing, he’s like Lindsey Graham. There is literally no upside to this for Trump.

I really believe Mandel actually had the greatest chance of losing an all but impossible to lose race.

[Coldstream]

I don’t know whether Trump is just stupid, has useless advisers, or just naturally gravitates to other frauds. Vance is the most likely to lose a GE & the most likely to be disloyal should they both be in office together. Mandel, Timken actually believe in Trumpist lunacy, and Gibbons is a Rand Paul type who will go along with the isolationist stuff. Vance quite plainly believes in nothing, he’s like Lindsey Graham. There is literally no upside to this for Trump.

I really believe Mandel actually had the greatest chance of losing an all but impossible to lose race.

In Mandel’s defence, he has actually won a statewide election.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Congratulations to Senator-elect Vance.

There are many Ds out there registered to vote the Approval rating is not 33% they're Lying

[Ferguson97]

I've also said before that I feel many posters on here wish that this would be a one-party country, with Democrats, and only Democrats, holding political power.

As long as the elections were free and fair, what’s wrong with this?