OH-Sen 2022: So you’re telling me there’s a chance

[Calthrina950]

I am glad Jordan is out he has the same problem as D Hassert a wrestling sex scandal

Gym Jordan.

The difference between Jordan and Hastert is that Jordan is accused of covering up a team physician's sexual assaults, while Hastert was the assailant and paid hush money to silence his victims. Nevertheless, Jordan is an odious character, and I think he recognized that it would be easier for him to keep his Safe House seat then go for a potentially risky Senate bid (a bid which I think he still would have been the favorite for, unfortunately; Ohio is slipping away from Democrats).

[Calthrina950]

I am glad Jordan is out he has the same problem as D Hassert a wrestling sex scandal

Gym Jordan.

The difference between Jordan and Hastert is that Jordan is accused of covering up a team physician's sexual assaults, while Hastert was the assailant and paid hush money to silence his victims. Nevertheless, Jordan is an odious character, and I think he recognized that it would be easier for him to keep his Safe House seat then go for a potentially risky Senate bid (a bid which I think he still would have been the favorite for, unfortunately; Ohio is slipping away from Democrats).

I think it was just a combination of him having more factional power in the House & being in-line for Judiciary Chair if the GOP were to take back the majority.

This is what I meant. Jordan would be more likely to accrue power and influence as a Representative than as a Senator. He would be a conservative firebrand in the Senate, but I'm not sure he would have managed to break into the ranks of leadership there, in a institution which prides itself upon establishment-friendly politics and relative collegiality, and he would have had to spend years building up seniority.

[Calthrina950]

Safe R still, though I'm glad that Tim Ryan is going to make a futile run for Senate instead of staying in the House (though his district is almost certainly going to get dismantled anyway now).

The only real question is whether or not Ryan manages to keep his loss within single digits. I think he will slightly outperform Biden, and will lose by about 5-7%. That would seem reasonable. But then again, he could get blown out like Portman's opponents Fisher and Strickland were.

[Calthrina950]

Josh Mandel calls on Mike DeWine to lift Ohio's COVID restrictions.

Josh Mandel, a Republican candidate for the Senate in Ohio, is waging an unadulterated campaign to pull his party further to the right, in part by trashing the state's Republican governor.

A day after governors in Mississippi and Texas lifted mask mandates and other guidelines to prevent the spread of the coronavirus, Mandel on Wednesday called on Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine to do the same.

"I think Mike DeWine is a squishy establishment politician who went along with the peer pressure and the groupthink of liberal media and other squishy governors around the country when he should have been a leader," Mandel, a former two-term state treasurer, said in an interview.

Mandel's remarks escalate his bid to position himself as the Republican most in sync with former President Donald Trump in the race to succeed GOP Sen. Rob Portman, who will not seek another term next year.

Mandel has amplified the lie that the election was stolen from Trump. He has relentlessly attacked an opponent, former Ohio Republican Party Chair Jane Timken, for the nice things she said about a Republican House member who voted to impeach Trump. And since he appeared last week at the CPAC conference for conservative activists in Florida, Mandel has branded DeWine — whose career in Republican politics goes back to 1977, when Mandel was born — with words like "squishy" and "RINO," meaning Republican In Name Only.

In another sign that he wants to carve out his own far-right lane in a primary campaign that could soon be crowded with other pro-Trump conservatives, Mandel asserted Wednesday that masks are not effective against the coronavirus.

"There's no science or math that shows that it's been helpful," he said, overlooking data and guidance from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and other experts that confirms that properly covering your mouth and nose helps prevent the spread of viral particles.

"No," Mandel replied when asked whether he would continue wearing a mask in public if DeWine lifts the mandate. "We need to stop the mask mandates immediately. And I will stop wearing a mask. I have the freedom to make decisions based on what's best for me and my family. And this has gone way overboard."

He's running to the bottom of the barrel, but then again, this isn't that different from what most Republicans are doing these days anyhow.

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/MadelainePisani/status/1375442697834655753

Reminiscent of The Apprentice? I'm not surprised. Mandel and Timken are clearly angling for Trump's favors, and he apparently made some negative remarks about both of them, as were noted above. This is just another example of the extent to which many Republican politicians have debased themselves by kissing Trump's feet.

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/Tylerjoelb/status/1429091614052519941?s=19
Amazing look into Mandels campaigns mindset. Tim Ryans got a shot if this is what he's facing

Mandel has to be one of the most odious Republican candidates out there, and that is saying something, considering how awful many of that Party's politicians and candidates are and have been. We can only hope that he loses the primary.

Also, he seems to have gained a good amount of weight compared to when he first ran for the Senate in the long-ago days of 2012. People certainly do let themselves go.

[Calthrina950]

https://www.thedailybeast.com/trump-fixated-on-ohio-senate-candidate-josh-mandels-sex-life
Rumors are Trump doesn't want Mandel to win the nomination, as he thinks he's weird, hates his personality and thinks he has no charisma.

Josh Mandel is a 44-year old man who looks like he's in college and acts like he's in middle school. Is there any wonder that Trump's not impressed with him?

The crazy tweets work (well, worked) for Trump's brand but not really for anyone else.

Mandel probably would still win if he were the nominee, but it would be closer than with other, potentially stronger candidates such as Timken and Gibbons. It's easy to understand now why Mandel lost to Sherrod Brown back in 2012, when Ohio was still a swing state at the presidential level.

[Calthrina950]

https://www.thedailybeast.com/trump-fixated-on-ohio-senate-candidate-josh-mandels-sex-life
Rumors are Trump doesn't want Mandel to win the nomination, as he thinks he's weird, hates his personality and thinks he has no charisma.

Josh Mandel is a 44-year old man who looks like he's in college and acts like he's in middle school. Is there any wonder that Trump's not impressed with him?

The crazy tweets work (well, worked) for Trump's brand but not really for anyone else.

Mandel probably would still win if he were the nominee, but it would be closer than with other, potentially stronger candidates such as Timken and Gibbons. It's easy to understand now why Mandel lost to Sherrod Brown back in 2012, when Ohio was still a swing state at the presidential level.

It is easy to forget, but Mandel has won 2 state wide elections in Ohio

True, and I'm not saying that Mandel would lose, since Ohio has become more Republican in the decade since he ran for Senate, but he would underperform some of the other candidates.

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/HeartlandSignal/status/1504955509094371339

Lmao Mandel trying to look threatening and "alpha" with the way he looks and his voice just looks pathetic.

I continue to be struck by how immature he is, both with regards to his personality and to his appearance. He looks like a college kid who is way out of his depth.

[Calthrina950]

And this guy is a frontrunner for the GOP nomination? That's a campaign-killing statement right there.

https://twitter.com/Zachary_Cohen/status/1512555278574792708

Republicans have traditionally emphasized their support for the middle class, so this is a statement that is certainly jarring on his part and will certainly be damaging to his chances.

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/MarcACaputo/status/1514653428579975172

This isn't surprising. Out of all the candidates running, Vance is the one closest to Trump's views. Moreover, he has a good friendship with Donald Trump Jr. (who has been urging his father to endorse him) and Trump has a negative opinion of Gibbons and Mandel. Timken has fallen behind and is clearly no longer competitive. Dolan is a non-factor.

[Calthrina950]

I don’t know whether Trump is just stupid, has useless advisers, or just naturally gravitates to other frauds. Vance is the most likely to lose a GE & the most likely to be disloyal should they both be in office together. Mandel, Timken actually believe in Trumpist lunacy, and Gibbons is a Rand Paul type who will go along with the isolationist stuff. Vance quite plainly believes in nothing, he’s like Lindsey Graham. There is literally no upside to this for Trump.

Most likely to lose a GE..? It's Safe R either way.

The possibility of a republican losing Ohio in this environment shouldn't even be discussed seriously.

Moreover, Vance, out of all the candidates, is the one who is closest to Trump's views, and Mandel, you could argue, is just as much an opportunist as he is. This is to say nothing of his close friendship with Trump Jr., which was a major reason why he got Trump's endorsement.

[Calthrina950]

I don’t know whether Trump is just stupid, has useless advisers, or just naturally gravitates to other frauds. Vance is the most likely to lose a GE & the most likely to be disloyal should they both be in office together. Mandel, Timken actually believe in Trumpist lunacy, and Gibbons is a Rand Paul type who will go along with the isolationist stuff. Vance quite plainly believes in nothing, he’s like Lindsey Graham. There is literally no upside to this for Trump.

Most likely to lose a GE..? It's Safe R either way.

The possibility of a republican losing Ohio in this environment shouldn't even be discussed seriously.

The most recent GCB was D+3, now I expect the Republicans to win both this senate race and the eventual total vote, but acting like this is some R+20 year is ridiculous. It’s more than possible that a guy as unlikeable, inexperienced and impossible to relate to like Vance could lose - even if I don’t personally expect him to. Whilst there’s no chance even a creep like Mandel would lose it.

If anyone in this race has Akin/Moore style skeletons in his closet, it’ll be Vance.

Yes, I don't see Vance relating well with the young white college-educated urban internet forum poster crowd.

Jeez people, y'all act like because YOU can't relate to him, nobody else can. When Vance wins the GE easily, it's going to be another smack to the face to how detached this crowd is from everyone else.

And I don't even want to defend Vance here. But this is absurd.

I've grown increasingly wary of how Atlas evaluates political candidates. I've also said before that I feel many posters on here wish that this would be a one-party country, with Democrats, and only Democrats, holding political power. There doesn't seem to be a tolerance for a diversity of political thought by many here, and it is certainly distressing.

[Calthrina950]

I've also said before that I feel many posters on here wish that this would be a one-party country, with Democrats, and only Democrats, holding political power.

As long as the elections were free and fair, what’s wrong with this?

I much rather have a multiparty system than a single-party one. A single political party would not adequately represent the interests or the viewpoints of everyone in a country as diverse and vast as ours, and would carry inherent risks of its own. And such a party probably wouldn't be sustainable in the long term. Do you really think the Democratic Party or the Republican Party, by themselves, are capable of adequately representing the viewpoints and ideologies of all Americans?

There are millions of people in this country, on the one hand, who value abortion rights, gay rights, and progressive policies on healthcare and the economy, who wouldn't be comfortable with single-party Republican rule. And there are millions of others who value gun rights, who are pro-life, and have a more conservative outlook on economic matters, who wouldn't be comfortable with single-party Democratic rule.

[Calthrina950]

Bruh:

https://twitter.com/JoshforGeorgia/status/1516093390378741763?s=20&t=alCAp0I...

Pretty smart of Vance's old roommate to wait until after trump endorsed Vance to release these texts. His primary rivals can weaponize them against him, and if he still makes it to the general, a smart Tim Ryan campaign or a smart dem super pac can weaponize them to depress base republican turnout. I smell a bloody home stretch to this primary. Hopefully Vance gets seriously wounded.

Vance is winning the primary by more than 10 points.

And if he's the nominee, he will defeat Ryan easily.

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/BuckeyePolitic1/status/1516935980871204865
According to someone who visited a Vance town hall, he plans to vote against McConnell, which could be a reason Trump endorsed him.

McConnell is certainly long past his welcome, like Pelosi. The man should have retired in 2020, and is hopefully in his last term.

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/timryan/status/1568585673929621506?s=46&t=fbkdTuJDJKl_Vb...

Tim Ryan is running a good campaign, but he's going to lose simply because of Ohio's Republican lean and polarization. I think this explains why Vance has not bothered to campaign and has sat on his laurels. He knows that he is virtually guaranteed that seat on a silver platter. He doesn't need to lift a finger.

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/timryan/status/1568585673929621506?s=46&t=fbkdTuJDJKl_Vb...

Tim Ryan is running a good campaign, but he's going to lose simply because of Ohio's Republican lean and polarization. I think this explains why Vance has not bothered to campaign and has sat on his laurels. He knows that he is virtually guaranteed that seat on a silver platter. He doesn't need to lift a finger.

That's a good way to lose.  Ohio may have a Republican lean, but it's not Alabama or Wyoming.

It's not, but after seeing the result in that state two years ago, when it had seemed like Biden could win there, I'm not that optimistic. Trump is supposed to hold a rally for Vance soon, and he's trying to ride his coattails to coast to victory.

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/timryan/status/1568585673929621506?s=46&t=fbkdTuJDJKl_Vb...

Tim Ryan is running a good campaign, but he's going to lose simply because of Ohio's Republican lean and polarization. I think this explains why Vance has not bothered to campaign and has sat on his laurels. He knows that he is virtually guaranteed that seat on a silver platter. He doesn't need to lift a finger.

I actually think if things are still the way they are right now come mid-October, then Ryan probably pulls off the upset

Who is to say that they will stay the same? And who is to say that the polls in Ohio are actually accurate this time? Notably, the one outlier poll - Trafalgar - has Vance leading by 5%. I'm aware of the poor reputation Trafalgar has on here, but the Midwest is one region where they have been quite accurate.

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/timryan/status/1568585673929621506?s=46&t=fbkdTuJDJKl_Vb...

Tim Ryan is running a good campaign, but he's going to lose simply because of Ohio's Republican lean and polarization. I think this explains why Vance has not bothered to campaign and has sat on his laurels. He knows that he is virtually guaranteed that seat on a silver platter. He doesn't need to lift a finger.

That's a good way to lose.  Ohio may have a Republican lean, but it's not Alabama or Wyoming.

It's not, but after seeing the result in that state two years ago, when it had seemed like Biden could win there, I'm not that optimistic. Trump is supposed to hold a rally for Vance soon, and he's trying to ride his coattails to coast to victory.

I’m curious because you seem to be one of the few genuine swing voters on here. It sounds like you are cheering for Ryan and planning to vote democrat in your home state. Are these both race specific preferences, or do you prefer democrats to hold both houses this year?

Well, I plan on voting to reelect Bennet and Polis, and probably all of the other Democratic statewide officers at this point. I strongly approve of Polis's performance as Governor (except for the very expansive abortion bill he signed a few months ago), and I think Bennet is a decent Senator. As for the others, I don't see any real reason for throwing them out of office. However, I will be voting Republican for local and county offices where I live.

[Calthrina950]

Ryan is a neoliberal internationalist. All of the flaws of Sherrod Brown, with none of the upside. He's likely to lose 10+ in a year in which Dems hold the House+Senate.

The people of Ohio are too smart to vote for someone who supports his evil brand of politics.

All of the flaws of... a man who won the state by seven points four years ago. Brilliant logic.

Brown won by less then Trump against a candidate described as "Edward FitzGerald with a driver's license." FitzGerald had lost by 30 in the 2014 gubernatorial race, even while winning a rural Trump +54 county over local issues.

I've been disillusioned by 2020 results, almost outright swinging rightward. It's conceivable that Ryan could greatly overpreform, winning Delaware County and taking back some ground up here in the northeast. But he won his district, gerrymandered as a Democratic sink, by less then Trump's margin statewide.

Even with momentum on his side, are the votes there anymore? A Vance+1.5 result is ultimately the same as a Vance +10 result in regards to the winner, at least the former wouldn't be yet another gut punch.

It is very true that Ryan is much less appealing than Brown as well. I don't like him for one. There are plenty of voters that aren't scared off by Trumpism and it's anti-Democratic attitudes, not to mention continued disregard of the environment, who voted Brown and would do so again but would prefer the phony populism of Vance over the weird meditation of Ryan.

I read an interesting article (I believe it was in the conservative Washington Examiner) in which several Ohio voters, living in Ryan's district, were interviewed about the race between him and Vance. These voters identified themselves as former Democrats, having voted for Obama and for Ryan himself in the past. However, they are now thoroughly unsatisfied with the Democratic Party and believe that it has abandoned them, and they are enthusiastic converts to Trump. They believe Ryan is out of touch with them and their values, and plan on supporting Vance.

[Calthrina950]

Ryan is a neoliberal internationalist. All of the flaws of Sherrod Brown, with none of the upside. He's likely to lose 10+ in a year in which Dems hold the House+Senate.

The people of Ohio are too smart to vote for someone who supports his evil brand of politics.

All of the flaws of... a man who won the state by seven points four years ago. Brilliant logic.

Brown won by less then Trump against a candidate described as "Edward FitzGerald with a driver's license." FitzGerald had lost by 30 in the 2014 gubernatorial race, even while winning a rural Trump +54 county over local issues.

I've been disillusioned by 2020 results, almost outright swinging rightward. It's conceivable that Ryan could greatly overpreform, winning Delaware County and taking back some ground up here in the northeast. But he won his district, gerrymandered as a Democratic sink, by less then Trump's margin statewide.

Even with momentum on his side, are the votes there anymore? A Vance+1.5 result is ultimately the same as a Vance +10 result in regards to the winner, at least the former wouldn't be yet another gut punch.

It is very true that Ryan is much less appealing than Brown as well. I don't like him for one. There are plenty of voters that aren't scared off by Trumpism and it's anti-Democratic attitudes, not to mention continued disregard of the environment, who voted Brown and would do so again but would prefer the phony populism of Vance over the weird meditation of Ryan.

I read an interesting article (I believe it was in the conservative Washington Examiner) in which several Ohio voters, living in Ryan's district, were interviewed about the race between him and Vance. These voters identified themselves as former Democrats, having voted for Obama and for Ryan himself in the past. However, they are now thoroughly unsatisfied with the Democratic Party and believe that it has abandoned them, and they are enthusiastic converts to Trump. They believe Ryan is out of touch with them and their values, and plan on supporting Vance.

The Washington Examiner is (barely) one step above the New York Post, so I wouldn’t read anything into that.  Knowing them, they probably kept looking until they found a few people who told them what they wanted to put in the story.

I figured that there wouldn't be a positive reception of the source, but I still found it notable. And if you want to look at hard electoral data, it is undeniable that Ryan's congressional district, which was originally designed as a Democratic vote-sink, has swung heavily to the right over the past decade. Ryan won reelection 73-27% in 2012, but in 2020, he was reelected 53-45%, barely outrunning Biden, who won the district 51-48% over Trump. A similar overperformance of Biden, who lost Ohio 53-45% in 2020, would have Ryan still losing to Vance by 2-3%. It may be better, however, to compare Ryan to Strickland in 2016 (who lost to Portman 58-37%), and that is why I think it more likely that his margin of defeat will be closer to Biden's.

[Calthrina950]

I might regeret but i think Ryan is favoured at this point.
https://twitter.com/AnnaStaver/status/1570472246166147074

I don't think so. I'm still not convinced this is anything but a clear Republican victory.

[Calthrina950]

I might regeret but i think Ryan is favoured at this point.
https://twitter.com/AnnaStaver/status/1570472246166147074

I don't think so. I'm still not convinced this is anything but a clear Republican victory.

To be fair, it doesn't sound like there's anything that could truly convince you.

I don't know what else people need to see to realize that this is an actual race. Ohio is a Trump +8 state, but Sherrod Brown literally won by 6.5% just 4 years ago. It's not *impossible*

Brown is an incumbent, won in a Democratic wave year, and still underperformed the polls against a challenger who was as weak as J.D. Vance is. And it's hard for me to see Ryan mustering the level of crossover appeal necessary to overcome a double-digit landslide by DeWine in this state. I'd also say that Biden was thought be competitive in Ohio in 2020, and even campaigned there, only for Trump to win decisively on Election Day. The polls in Ohio have underestimated Republicans consistently for several years now, and the collapse in Ryan's support from 2018 to 2020 gives me little confidence that he will be able to reverse the trends here.

[Calthrina950]

I might regeret but i think Ryan is favoured at this point.
https://twitter.com/AnnaStaver/status/1570472246166147074

I don't think so. I'm still not convinced this is anything but a clear Republican victory.

To be fair, it doesn't sound like there's anything that could truly convince you.

I don't know what else people need to see to realize that this is an actual race. Ohio is a Trump +8 state, but Sherrod Brown literally won by 6.5% just 4 years ago. It's not *impossible*

Brown is an incumbent, won in a Democratic wave year, and still underperformed the polls against a challenger who was as weak as J.D. Vance is. And it's hard for me to see Ryan mustering the level of crossover appeal necessary to overcome a double-digit landslide by DeWine in this state. I'd also say that Biden was thought be competitive in Ohio in 2020, and even campaigned there, only for Trump to win decisively on Election Day. The polls in Ohio have underestimated Republicans consistently for several years now, and the collapse in Ryan's support from 2018 to 2020 gives me little confidence that he will be able to reverse the trends here.

But have we stopped though to think that Ryan has possibly even more crossover appeal than Brown does? I'm not saying it's true, but it's not impossible either. I also think Vance is easily a worse candidate than 2018.

Brown won by 6.5 in a D+8.5 year. He underperformed national Ds by 2%. SO yes, incumbency matters, but Vance is also horrific, so honestly if this is a D+2 or more year, I don't think it's impossible for Ryan to win.

As of right now, I'm doubtful that this year is going to be a Democratic wave. At best, I envision it as a neutral environment, with Dobbs having given the Democrats a considerable boost compared to their standing earlier in the year. But Dobbs alone will not decide the outcome of the race in Ohio. Now, if this race were in 2006, 2010, or 2012, I do believe Ryan would be favored, and he would demolish Vance in the traditionally Democratic working-class and industrial sections of Ohio. But his coalition this year will look markedly different, and I'm skeptical that he will make the gains necessary in urban and suburban areas of Ohio to offset the Republican advantage in the Mahoning Valley and in Eastern Ohio.

As for 2018, most polls showed Brown winning by double digits, and he underperformed that by a noticeable amount. One also has to keep in mind that Ohio has trended further to the right since then, as exemplified by Lorain and Mahoning Counties flipping to Trump in 2020.