OH-Sen 2022: So you’re telling me there’s a chance

[Rjjr77]

1. Barring a disaster, Tim Ryan wont win this race.
2. Mandel is leading, but has a hard capped ceiling in the high 30's
3. Timken should be leading but is floundering.
4. JD Vance is a media creation with no support in the state.
5. Watch out for Bernie Moreno, outsider with a big fundraising ability who is the only one outside of the top 2 with a chance to catch fire.

[Rjjr77]

Amazing look into Mandels campaigns mindset. Tim Ryans got a shot if this is what he's facing

This just got Mandel 50k in free media in NW Ohio, which is probably the most important region in this senate race. It was slimy but politically smart

[Rjjr77]

You know Beashear and Tim Ryan are well liked by Female voters this is a wave insurance seat, and I wouldn't count out Beshear of 2o23 or Tim Ryan, this is a wave insurance seat to our path to DC Statehood after 52 seats


Despite what I have been saying before, I have donated to Ryan 5.00 a mnth and will continue, there aren't any user Predictions anyways since Tender Bredeson left, so we can change our minds

Dave opened the 2021 Predictions but it's closed


Polls in wave insurance seats are meaninglees until 2022 and we only had one poll

Kind of hard to say Ryan is well liked by any kind of voters since most of the state isnt really aware of who he is.

[Rjjr77]

Rand Paul supports Gibbons
https://mobile.twitter.com/MikeGibbonsOH/status/1409896175700955143

Mike Gibbons as as much of a chance of being US senator as you and I do, and we will spend a lot less money

[Rjjr77]

Tim Ryan is using classic populist rethoric, given that Donald Trump a person who embodies the exact opposite of this was the most succesful user of populist rethoric I doubt it's going to work.

https://twitter.com/TimRyan/status/1431384110833049604

It won't work, but he makes a point that should. Though it's undermined by him framing it in an embarrassingly cringey meme format.

Theres probably a lot of Ohio voters who are going to wonder how a guy whos made 3+ million dollars over his government career hasnt paid off his student loans yet

[Rjjr77]

https://twitter.com/Tylerjoelb/status/1429091614052519941?s=19
Amazing look into Mandels campaigns mindset. Tim Ryans got a shot if this is what he's facing

Let's just hope Babyface doesn't get the nomination, fingers crossed!!

In the meantime, I'll support JD Vance.

Most Ohio republicans don't even know who JD Vance is

[Rjjr77]

Sure Racism this open has gotta hurt him.
https://twitter.com/JoshMandelOhio/status/1433786223596871685

People are correct, open racism probably only helps him in a Republican primary in Ohio. At least he got ratioed and lol: https://twitter.com/CleverTitleTK/status/1433838194215297127?s=20

That's among the worst ratios I have ever seen. 10-to-1. Ouch.

No primary voter in Ohio cares about a ratio'd tweet.

Whenever Mandel does a controversial tweet, hes playing to his ceiling, hes got a capped out 38-40% of the GOP primary vote, but he cant raise money, so hes getting free advertising every time he does this and people on the left get upset. Its not what he says, but the reaction of everyone outside his audience. Its a smart, guerrilla strategy 

[Rjjr77]

Recently, I caught up with a friend who is a native Ohioan and works for a Republican member from Ohio. FWIW, he's convinced that Ryan would beat either Mandel or Vance.

Tim Ryan is the JD Vance of the left, the majority of voters in the state have no idea who he is

[Rjjr77]

People continue to point to Sherrod Brown as why this race is competitive. It isn't. Sherrod Brown Spent 30 Million dollars to under perform his polling. Tim Ryan is not a known commodity in Ohio outside of NE Ohio, Ohio has moved to the right drastically. This thing is over unless the GOP nominee (whichever of the top 4 it is) says or does something ridiculously disqualifying

[Rjjr77]

This is in the wrong board and you are being presumptuous, Tim Ryan will get alot of Blk support on Election day the last poll had Ryan tied with Vance and Down 4 and on his website, he is tied 38 with Generic R

This is whats wrong with this board, people think back benchers who make speeches in empty chambers are actually well known with voters. Do you honestly believe the average voter knows who Tim Ryan is in Dayton or Marietta?

[Rjjr77]

I have no idea why any of you are surprised that J.D. Vance isn't some hero of the working class, lmao.

Been a running joke that Vance is an extreme wannabe while Mandel is just a natural at being the perfect candidate for the base.

Mandels a phony too because people actually know who he is, thats why hes stuck under 40 in the polls despite being the only person elected statewide

[Rjjr77]

I'd support Vance, though I am starting to doubt his #populist credentials after his fundraising tweet that basically went like this

"Pay $10,000 to dine with myself and Peter Thiel"

Mandel trolled him with a post like this:

"Pay $10 to eat french fries with me at midnight in a Denny's parking lot"

I'd still vote for Vance though, because he isn't a lunatic. Up until recently, I thought Mandel was a neocon in Trumpist clothing. However after he said that George Soros and the Deep State caused COVID-19, BLM, ANTIFA, and the Capital Riots, I realized he is ing insane. I wasn't really following the election when he made the poll about "which type of illegal causes more crime". I'm guessing that was your evidence for your claim that he is racist. Timken is an out-of-touch elitist. The other candidates aren't really serious.

Mandel is whatever you want him to be. He's not insane, he's a grifter trying to get your attention by saying inflammatory stuff. His policy views are pretty much limited to attacking Democrats and ordering Denny's at 1am. Vance isn't perfect but he's the best option available. Timken is better than your description, but she's also not going to win. Bernie Moreno is also interesting, but also not going to win.

Moreno is the only candidate in the bottom level of the polls I think could catch fire. Id keep an eye on him

[Rjjr77]

Mandel is not leading by that much in polling and most of the other candidates are catching up. I have no idea why you think he has a lock on the nomination.

Because he's like the perfect representation of what the GOP base wants, and Vance is a complete phony.

Vance is actually not a phony.

https://www.thedailybeast.com/jd-vance-deleted-his-anti-trump-tweets-he-forgot-his-likes

Changing opinions over the course of 5 years doesn't make one fake. Try again.

Vance is a phony because he has no state apparatus, hes a creation of the media. Its a Mandel/Timken/Moreno race and always has been

[Rjjr77]

Graham Allen dropping out of his South Carolina House race the other day meant that Trump had decided on Russell Fry to receive his endorsement, so this probably means that Trump has picked someone in the field. Hopefully not Vance; Timken or Mandel would be fine. Hard to imagine that it would be Gibbons or Dolan.

Rumor in Ohio politics is a Timken endorsement is coming, Trump told Moreno and thats why he dropped

[Rjjr77]

https://www.thedailybeast.com/trump-fixated-on-ohio-senate-candidate-josh-mandels-sex-life
Rumors are Trump doesn't want Mandel to win the nomination, as he thinks he's weird, hates his personality and thinks he has no charisma.

Josh Mandel is a 44-year old man who looks like he's in college and acts like he's in middle school. Is there any wonder that Trump's not impressed with him?

The crazy tweets work (well, worked) for Trump's brand but not really for anyone else.

Mandel probably would still win if he were the nominee, but it would be closer than with other, potentially stronger candidates such as Timken and Gibbons. It's easy to understand now why Mandel lost to Sherrod Brown back in 2012, when Ohio was still a swing state at the presidential level.

It is easy to forget, but Mandel has won 2 state wide elections in Ohio

[Rjjr77]

https://www.thedailybeast.com/trump-fixated-on-ohio-senate-candidate-josh-mandels-sex-life
Rumors are Trump doesn't want Mandel to win the nomination, as he thinks he's weird, hates his personality and thinks he has no charisma.

Josh Mandel is a 44-year old man who looks like he's in college and acts like he's in middle school. Is there any wonder that Trump's not impressed with him?

The crazy tweets work (well, worked) for Trump's brand but not really for anyone else.

Mandel probably would still win if he were the nominee, but it would be closer than with other, potentially stronger candidates such as Timken and Gibbons. It's easy to understand now why Mandel lost to Sherrod Brown back in 2012, when Ohio was still a swing state at the presidential level.

It is easy to forget, but Mandel has won 2 state wide elections in Ohio

True, and I'm not saying that Mandel would lose, since Ohio has become more Republican in the decade since he ran for Senate, but he would underperform some of the other candidates.

Certainly don't disagree he may underperform, just reminding folks hes not some ridiculous candidate whos never won before

[Rjjr77]

The best democrat in Ohio had to spend 30 Million in a democrat wave year to drastically underperform his polling. 30 MILLION. Tim Ryan doesnt have a prayer, against any of them

[Rjjr77]

maybe not so fast.

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/ohio-gop-central-committee-state-county-chairs-trump-endorse-vance

[Rjjr77]

maybe not so fast.

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/ohio-gop-central-committee-state-county-chairs-trump-endorse-vance

I don't think a letter from the Ohio establishment will change his mind. The only thing that could possibly affect his thinking is that laughably fake poll Mandel pushed out today that Trump could take seriously.

The Ohio Establishment was torn down and entirely remade after trump took over the ORP, wouldnt be surprised if this actually changed his mind. The kasich party in Ohio is dead.

[Rjjr77]

in a D+8 year (2018) popular incumbent Sherrod Brown had to spend over 30 MILLION to under perform his polling by large margins against a heavily disliked candidate.

Tim Ryan is gonna get boat raced.

[Rjjr77]

in a D+8 year (2018) popular incumbent Sherrod Brown had to spend over 30 MILLION to under perform his polling by large margins against a heavily disliked candidate.

Tim Ryan is gonna get boat raced.

Everybody except for delusional clowns like OC and Minnesota Mike knows this.

I feel like once a month I have to log in out of nowhere and tell Olawokandi that Tim Ryan is gonna get slaughtered, its like my job at this point

[Rjjr77]

in a D+8 year (2018) popular incumbent Sherrod Brown had to spend over 30 MILLION to under perform his polling by large margins against a heavily disliked candidate.

Tim Ryan is gonna get boat raced.

Everybody except for delusional clowns like OC and Minnesota Mike knows this.

I feel like once a month I have to log in out of nowhere and tell Olawokandi that Tim Ryan is gonna get slaughtered, its like my job at this point

You misinterpret his sacred teachings.

I'll gladly play Pontius Pilate to Olawakandi's Jesus if thats what it takes

[Rjjr77]

Still very unlikely that Ryan wins, but at least he won't get completely blown out like Strickland did:
https://twitter.com/bridgetbhc/status/1545393779821232129?cxt=HHwWgoC-xY7dq_IqAA...

Ill gladly introduce you to this cycles' Amy McGrath.

[Rjjr77]

Still very unlikely that Ryan wins, but at least he won't get completely blown out like Strickland did:
https://twitter.com/bridgetbhc/status/1545393779821232129?cxt=HHwWgoC-xY7dq_IqAA...

Ill gladly introduce you to this cycles' Amy McGrath.

Mitch McConnell, despite his horrific approval ratings, is running in a state that is far more Republican than Ohio.

In some ways yes, in some ways no.

Ohio hasn't elected a democrat not named sherrod brown in this state since 2006. Kentucky has had a slew of statewide elected officials elected as democrat. Presidential Totals arent the be all end all