OH-Sen 2022: So you’re telling me there’s a chance

[BuckeyeNut]

Vance's post-Trump endorsement internal polling is pathetic. He's not even outside the margin of error for beating Mandel.

I maintain whichever Republican does make it through the primary will win the general election, but Vance is a weak candidate. With Club For Growth rallying around Mandel despite the Trump endorsement, these final days will get ugly.

Democrats might as well enjoy it!

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I am not giving up on this race OHPI has polled every race NV and AZ but not OH I wonder why

[Huey Long is a Republican]

A good read on the plot to turn the US into USSR and big money potentially flowing into cultural commentators who used to be leftists but are now conveniently fascists. As Vance states, the GOP will need to get “pretty wild,” which means nothing should be left to the imagination if you’re a student of history, fascists, and authoritarians: coups, genocide, etc.

“I think Trump is going to run again in 2024,” he said. “I think that what Trump should do, if I was giving him one piece of advice: Fire every single midlevel bureaucrat, every civil servant in the administrative state, replace them with our people.”

“And when the courts stop you,” he went on, “stand before the country, and say—” he quoted Andrew Jackson, giving a challenge to the entire constitutional order—“the chief justice has made his ruling. Now let him enforce it.”

This is a description, essentially, of a coup.

“We are in a late republican period,” Vance said later, evoking the common New Right view of America as Rome awaiting its Caesar. “If we’re going to push back against it, we’re going to have to get pretty wild, and pretty far out there, and go in directions that a lot of conservatives right now are uncomfortable with.”

Any sane person should not be voting for these people. The cynic in me knows voting is not the way to stop these folks, as we have seen, since authoritarians by nature are unafraid to use force. The Justice Dept has failed us.

I read the article and agree 100% with the Thielites.

Also from extensive reading about Vance and his political transformation, his change of mind regarding Trump seems 100% genuine, meaning he will probably not just become a generic R in the Senate like some predicted.

He will be exactly who his donors want him to be

Peter Thiel is super based so I sure hope so.

Thiel should be our next Sec of Treasury under Trump.

Under President Carlson*

Funny you mention President Carlson. I'm considering on doing a TL with him

Looking forward to it. Check out Upon A Cross Of Globalism if you haven't already.

I just did that, it's p good but does get a bit into how the left thinks the GOP would act at the end. Think you'd be interested in helping me with my own TL?

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Vance's post-Trump endorsement internal polling is pathetic. He's not even outside the margin of error for beating Mandel.

I maintain whichever Republican does make it through the primary will win the general election, but Vance is a weak candidate. With Club For Growth rallying around Mandel despite the Trump endorsement, these final days will get ugly.

Democrats might as well enjoy it!

We've literally had one poll where 47% of the primary electorate was yet unaware of the endorsement.. and Vance was leading by several points.

Trust a Atlas user to be this hyperbolic.

[BuckeyeNut]

Ted Cruz is coming to barnstorm for Mandel over GOTV weekend.

https://twitter.com/darreldrowland/status/1518682798139355137?s=20&t=6vgmKNX...

[2016]

JD Vance will win this. LOL on Cruz who finished 3rd way down during the 2016 Primaries.

[ElectionsGuy]

I've noticed this proxy war as well. Cruz endorses Mandel and McCormick, and Trump endorses Oz and Vance.

Trump wants the outsiders and Cruz wants the most "principled" conservative ones. Although given McCormick's history I genuinely wonder what he sees in him now - and if he thinks he's changed and will stick to what he's saying now.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

I've noticed this proxy war as well. Cruz endorses Mandel and McCormick, and Trump endorses Oz and Vance.

Trump wants the outsiders and Cruz wants the most "principled" conservative ones. Although given McCormick's history I genuinely wonder what he sees in him now - and if he thinks he's changed and will stick to what he's saying now.

McCormick is a wall street pro-China elitist. Cruz has been a globalist posing as a nationalist since 2017.
It's been clear to me though that Trump is endorsing whoever he sees as would be loyal in the Senate once he gets back into office. Vance and Oz would be much more willing to do what Trump says than Mandel or McCormick.

[Tiger08]

I've noticed this proxy war as well. Cruz endorses Mandel and McCormick, and Trump endorses Oz and Vance.

Trump wants the outsiders and Cruz wants the most "principled" conservative ones. Although given McCormick's history I genuinely wonder what he sees in him now - and if he thinks he's changed and will stick to what he's saying now.

Cruz's endorsement picks aren't particularly ideological. He usually endorses whoever is using Axiom Strategies (a huge GOP consulting firm led by Jeff Roe, Cruz's 2016 strategist). McCormick and Mandel are both using Axiom. Cruz endorsed Youngkin very early on in VA last year, probably because of the Axiom tie.

[Bismarck]

I've noticed this proxy war as well. Cruz endorses Mandel and McCormick, and Trump endorses Oz and Vance.

Trump wants the outsiders and Cruz wants the most "principled" conservative ones. Although given McCormick's history I genuinely wonder what he sees in him now - and if he thinks he's changed and will stick to what he's saying now.

McCormick is tight with the Goldman Sachs crowd and Ted Cruz’s wife works at Goldman Sachs.

[THG]

From what people from Ohio tell me, JD Vance’s biggest hurdle is his total lack of ground game. The man basically lacks a GOTV or door knocking operation, and even with his endorsements and advantages, if he loses the primary, it’s because of that.

I initially figured that Mandel would collapse and Gibbons would rise. However, it certainly doesn’t appear to be the case so far after Gibbons’s gaffes about raising taxes. If anything, Mandel has stayed consistent while Gibbons has seemingly collapsed.

Dolan/Timken/Gibbons have a problem of splitting each other’s vote shares, which is why none of those three have gone anywhere. I also believe that the Dolan surge is too late.

I can only say that the appropriate strategy in this primary race is to do nothing, let the other primary candidates to shoot themselves in the foot, and keep quiet while promoting yourself, but also to run a basic campaign. And none of the candidates seem to be hitting all of these bars here.

This is why I frankly have given up on predicting the winner of this primary, but it’ll probably be either Mandel or Vance, with the lurking possibility of someone else pulling a shock upset.

All I know is that whoever wins the primary should also cruise easily to the Senate. I will be very surprised if this race is within 10 points at a minimum.

[😥]

THG, it isn't related to the topic, but I want to ask you about the NC-11 Republican primary. How would you rate the chances of throwing this asshole Cawthron out of Congress?

[THG]

THG, it isn't related to the topic, but I want to ask you about the NC-11 Republican primary. How would you rate the chances of throwing this asshole Cawthron out of Congress?

It keeps getting more and more likely that Cawthorn could seriously lose his primary. However, the field needs to coalesce behind one candidate.

[LAB-LIB]

THG, it isn't related to the topic, but I want to ask you about the NC-11 Republican primary. How would you rate the chances of throwing this asshole Cawthron out of Congress?

It keeps getting more and more likely that Cawthorn could seriously lose his primary. However, the field needs to coalesce behind one candidate.

Would you say that it's going to be hard to get him below the 30% threshold and that he's going to have to be beaten outright?

[Schiff for Senate]

I will be very surprised if this race is within 10 points at a minimum.

We will see. I admit 2022 will be bad, but Ryan's a strong candidate who will make Northeast OH a bit bluer than it otherwise would be / a bit less red than it otherwise would be. Given that Ryan's strong and Vance/Mandel could quite possibly shoot themselves in the foot in the GE, I'd actually argue the race has a less than 50% chance of going red by double digits. But we'll see.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

I will be very surprised if this race is within 10 points at a minimum.

We will see. I admit 2022 will be bad, but Ryan's a strong candidate who will make Northeast OH a bit bluer than it otherwise would be / a bit less red than it otherwise would be. Given that Ryan's strong and Vance/Mandel could quite possibly shoot themselves in the foot in the GE, I'd actually argue the race has a less than 50% chance of going red by double digits. But we'll see.

Yeah. Not to mention that Ryan knows his base who will vote for him anyway and the folks he needs to convince (see the China ad). Mandel is such a terrible candidate it wouldn't be completely surprising to see him under 7-8 points.

[THG]

THG, it isn't related to the topic, but I want to ask you about the NC-11 Republican primary. How would you rate the chances of throwing this asshole Cawthron out of Congress?

It keeps getting more and more likely that Cawthorn could seriously lose his primary. However, the field needs to coalesce behind one candidate.

Would you say that it's going to be hard to get him below the 30% threshold and that he's going to have to be beaten outright?

It's possible but certainly not likely as of now. He's turned off a lot of people in the NCGOP against him, but he is still an incumbent and the field being split + 30% threshold ensures that Cawthorn likely holds on at least for this year.

He may very well lose a primary in the future, but he has to get beaten outright, and you need to unite behind a single candidate. Which at this rate is very possible (if he doesn't resign before that).

[BuckeyeNut]

More fun times going into GOTV weekend.

https://twitter.com/FoxNews/status/1519373309653229570

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

More fun times going into GOTV weekend.

https://twitter.com/FoxNews/status/1519373309653229570

JD Vance also said on his War Room appearance that Hawley is gonna campaign with him too.

[Respect and Compassion]

Unfortunately, I think J.D. Vance can bring Tim Ryan below 40%. I'm not sure if that will be the margin though. I think Tim Ryan's appeal to the working class may be a bit overrated especially in light of the political environment of 2022. I think Ryan is much more likely to get 42% than >45%

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Unfortunately, I think J.D. Vance can bring Tim Ryan below 40%. I'm not sure if that will be the margin though. I think Tim Ryan's appeal to the working class may be a bit overrated especially in light of the political environment of 2022. I think Ryan is much more likely to get 42% than >45%

Doom all the time for you see the OA poll Franken appeals to WWC voters just like T Ryan and it's 45)42 Grassley and Vance is not nearly as popular as Grassley

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/davecatanese/status/1519849641965244417?t=C-wSaaigryzPLBopR9...

[ElectionsGuy]

https://twitter.com/davecatanese/status/1519849641965244417?t=C-wSaaigryzPLBopR9...

Establishment Republicans have such contempt for their voters. In Josh Mandel's case, his performance art is a projection of what he thinks his base acts like and thinks like. He thinks they're stupid, and I'm guessing most Republicans in Washington would privately agree.

[Ferguson97]

Establishment Republicans have such contempt for their voters. In Josh Mandel's case, his performance art is a projection of what he thinks his base acts like and thinks like. He thinks they're stupid, and I'm guessing most Republicans in Washington would privately agree.

Yeah I feel like establishment Republicans are bitter over the trend of non-college whites shifting to them/college-whites shifting to the Dems because they despise them, even though it's an electoral benefit for them.

[ElectionsGuy]

Establishment Republicans have such contempt for their voters. In Josh Mandel's case, his performance art is a projection of what he thinks his base acts like and thinks like. He thinks they're stupid, and I'm guessing most Republicans in Washington would privately agree.

Yeah I feel like establishment Republicans are bitter over the trend of non-college whites shifting to them/college-whites shifting to the Dems because they despise them, even though it's an electoral benefit for them.

Yep. They would rather be against the wind (read: trend) to take back the college white Romney/Clinton/Biden or Romney/Trump/Biden voter than continue to pick up working and middle-class people of all races and embrace a more populist future that will come naturally. Part of it I think is they continue losing on fundraising because they've lost lots of rich people who are most of the donations. But most of these people are stuck in a past alignment (many got elected in the mid-2000s when the party was much different) and don't want to acknowledge/embrace this inevitable shift. You tend to notice the Republicans that are newer to the House/Senate represent their voters better on average. But they still probably play pretend on some things.